东方-时事云评【第20201127-245期】
12月3日
区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)的签署
意味着日本在经济上已经投降了中国
尽管安倍还没有再次成为日本首相（第三次）
但日本在最后一次战略投机的道路上又迈进了一步
原因不是别的,因为日本（经济）要活下去
目前欧美疫情已经失控
日本的疫情反反复复,根本无法彻底控制
这种情况下日本经济要维持下去就离不开中国
特别是对日本经济极其重要的汽车产业
占据了日本GDP的45%左右
在世界经济持续恶化的情况下
未来欧美很可能在汽车行业采取保护主义
而日本的汽车业将会是他们首要的打压对象
届时日本汽车业要活下去,唯一的生路就在中国
从这个角度看,日本签署RECP或是不得已为之
毕竟目前执政的日本极右政府发
自内心是不希望看到一个强大的中国
但所谓形势比人强
即便日本在安全层面上表现出进一步靠向西方
但在经济上求生于中国经济已经定格
令西方难堪的是
不仅日本,还有韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰都签署了RECP
这四个国家恰恰都与美国有军事协议
他们共同构成了美国西太安全框架的四个支点
RECP签署后该区域将成为世界最大的自贸区
超过了欧盟和北美自贸区
人口最多、经济体量最大
且是目前世界上最具经济活力的自贸区
各成员国能充分享受低关税甚至零关税带来的好处
只要是有特色的产业,就可以在RECP内享受最大的便利
这对澳大利亚和新西兰都有着不可抗拒的吸引力
当美国的四个西太盟国都加入了中国主导的RECP后
意味着西太安全框架已被中国“釜底抽薪”
成为一个纯粹的政治与安全框架
换言之,维系美国（西方）这部车、也就是西太安全框架四个脚（四国）
而两大锚点（日、韩）的“钱包包”和“米袋子”
都被剐蹭至另一部车、也就是另个框架也就是RCEP的车体上
所以,RECP的签署对西方有其极其现实的冲击力
日本原来曾试图组建CPTPP
但由于缺少有影响力的世界大国参与
CPTPP很难成功
首先美国不同意
因为,有美国的,就是TPP
没有美国的,才叫CPTPP
如果日本拉入中国入CPTPP,那么问题就来了
CPTPP涵盖了部分美洲国家
这等同于挖美国的“墙角”
日本就成了吃里扒外的“叛徒”
所以日本不敢把中国拉进来
如今RECP在中国的主导下达成
某种程度上可以说是水到渠成
因为只有中国彻底控制了疫情
掌握着包括疫苗在内的疫情防控和防治的全套解决方案
更关键的是,整个世界又只有中国的经济恢复了元气
因此他们为了活下去就必须要加入
需要指出的是
目前加入RECP的国家中
以后一定会出现反复
但这不妨碍中国的全球战略
即便是日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰全部出现反复也无妨
中国先立足于“10+1模式”夯实RECP框架
东盟已经成为中国的第一大贸易伙伴
且对于东盟其中的绝大多数国家而言
中国也是他们的第一大贸易伙伴
因为东盟经济对中国的依赖度很高
东盟国家很清楚,中国是区域内国家
只有中国把该区域的政治稳定和经济发展当做自己的事对待
哪怕象越南这样有小心思的国家
他们也相信中国在真心谋求区域稳定共同发展
所以东盟对RECP非常重视
未来随着疫情更加严重
欧美很可能重拾贸易保护主义
届时“RCEP的缩身版本”,也就是“10+1模式”的生命力将更加顽强
所以中国准备好了在“10+5”的基础上做减法
也准备好了在“10+1”的模式上做加法
更准备好在最低限度经济内循环的层面上做升级
至于具体过程如何演化就交给时间说话
如果进一步展开就是
退一万步讲,中国还有国内的最低内循环
足够保证中国度过难关
中国从国内最低内循环开始
首先“挂上”朝鲜、更或者柬埔寨,实现东北亚经济一体化的冷启动
以此为一个“1+1=1”及“1+1=1”
再逐步扩展到“1+10”、或“10+5”,直至“10+N”
这就是中国最低内循环的升级过程
需要强调的是
RECP的签署仅仅标志着中国取得了阶段性胜利
未来还会有反复
日本虽然经济上投降了中国;但政治上心有不甘
所以日本、韩国等极力主张RECP为印度留下了“快速通道”的后门
未来只要印度愿意,随时可以作为缔约国加入进来
日本知道靠自己的力量很难抗衡中国
即使加上韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰;力量也显单薄
日本拉入印度就是试图尽力平衡中国在BCEP中的影响力
而印度目前不加入主要是出于保护本国产业的考虑
印度担心低关税下外部竞争会把印度的经济摧垮
其次印度也不愿承认中国在经济上的主导地位
但对中国而言印度加不加入无所谓
在疫情的持续冲击下
世界经济的寒冬即将到来
正是这个现实让包括东盟在内的国家
特别是日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰
他们顶着美国的压力加入中国主导的RECP
就是因为不想在“即将到来的全球经济寒冬”中被“首批冻死”
Signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP)
Means that Japan has surrendered to China economically
Although Abe has not yet become the prime minister of Japan (the third time)
But Japan has taken another step forward on the path of the last strategic speculation
The reason is nothing else, because Japan (the economy) wants to survive
The current epidemic in Europe and America is out of control
The epidemic in Japan is repeated and it is impossible to completely control it
Under this circumstance, the Japanese economy cannot be maintained without China.
Especially the automobile industry which is extremely important to the Japanese economy
Occupies about 45% of Japan’s GDP
As the world economy continues to deteriorate
In the future, Europe and the United States are likely to adopt protectionism in the auto industry
And Japan’s auto industry will be their primary target of suppression
By then, the Japanese auto industry will survive, and the only way to survive is in China
From this perspective, Japan's signing of RCEP may be a last resort
After all, the current ruling Japanese ultra-right government issued
I don’t want to see a strong China from the bottom of my heart
But the so-called situation is better than people
Even if Japan appears to lean further towards the West on the security level
But surviving economically in China’s economy has been fixed
What embarrass the West is
Not only Japan, but also South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have signed RCEP
These four countries happen to have military agreements with the United States
Together they constitute the four fulcrums of the US West Pacific Security Framework
After the signing of RECP, the region will become the world's largest free trade zone
Surpassed the EU and North American Free Trade Area
Largest population and largest economy
It is currently the most economically dynamic free trade zone in the world
Member states can fully enjoy the benefits of low or even zero tariffs
As long as it is a distinctive industry, you can enjoy the greatest convenience in RCEP
This is irresistible to Australia and New Zealand
When the four Western Pacific allies of the United States joined the China-led RECP
It means that the West Pacific Security Framework has been "raised from the bottom" by China
Become a purely political and security framework
In other words, to maintain the US (Western) car, that is, the four feet of the Western Pacific Security Framework (four countries)
And the "wallet bag" and "rice bag" of the two anchor points (Japan and South Korea)
Are all scratched to another car, which is another frame, which is the body of RCEP
Therefore, the signing of RECP has an extremely realistic impact on the West.
Japan originally tried to form CPTPP
But due to the lack of influential world powers
CPTPP is difficult to succeed
First of all, the United States does not agree
Because, there is the United States, it is TPP
Without the United States, it is called CPTPP
If Japan pulls China into the CPTPP, then the problem will come
CPTPP covers some American countries
This is equivalent to digging the "corner" of the United States
Japan has become a "traitor"
So Japan dare not bring China in
Now RECP is reached under the leadership of China
It can be said to be a matter of course
Because only China has completely controlled the epidemic
Master a complete set of solutions for epidemic prevention and control including vaccines
More importantly, in the entire world, only China's economy has recovered.
So they have to join in order to survive
What needs to be pointed out is
Countries currently participating in RCEP
There will be repetitions in the future
But this does not hinder China’s global strategy
Even Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand all have repetitions.
China first based on the "10+1 model" to consolidate the RECP framework
ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner
And for the vast majority of ASEAN countries
China is also their number one trading partner
Because the ASEAN economy is highly dependent on China
ASEAN countries are very clear that China is a country in the region
Only China treats the political stability and economic development of the region as its own business
Even in a cautious country like Vietnam
They also believe that China is sincerely seeking regional stability and common development
So ASEAN attaches great importance to RCEP
As the epidemic becomes more serious in the future
Europe and the United States are likely to regain trade protectionism
By then, the vitality of "RCEP's reduced version", that is, the "10+1 mode" will be more tenacious
So China is ready to do subtraction on the basis of "10+5"
Also ready to add on the "10+1" mode
More ready to upgrade at the level of minimal economic internal circulation
As for how the specific process evolves, time will speak
If it expands further
Taking 10,000 steps back, China still has the lowest internal circulation in China
Enough to ensure that China survives the storm
China starts with the lowest domestic internal loop
First, "hang up" North Korea, or even Cambodia, to realize the cold start of economic integration in Northeast Asia
Take this as a "1+1=1" and "1+1=1"
Then gradually expand to "1+10", or "10+5", until "10+N"
This is the upgrade process of China's lowest internal cycle
What needs to be emphasized is
The signing of RCEP only marks China's phased victory
There will be repeats in the future
Although Japan has surrendered to China economically, it is politically unwilling
Therefore, Japan, South Korea and others strongly advocate that RCEP leaves a "fast track" backdoor for India.
In the future, as long as India is willing, it can join as a signatory at any time
Japan knows that it is difficult to compete with China on its own
Even with the addition of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand; the power is weak
Japan pulling India in is trying to balance China's influence in RCEP
India’s current non-joining is mainly due to the protection of its own industries.
India is worried that external competition under low tariffs will destroy India’s economy
Secondly, India is unwilling to recognize China's economic dominance
But for China, it doesn’t matter whether India joins or not.
Under the continuous impact of the epidemic
The winter of the world economy is coming
It is this reality that makes countries including ASEAN
Especially Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand
They joined the Chinese-led RCEP under pressure from the United States
It's because they don't want to be "frozen to death in the first batch" in the "coming global economic winter"
(Network translation)
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