东方-时事云评【第20201029-216期】
10月 22 日
人民币对美元汇率连续 6 个交易日持续上涨
在岸人民币对美元最高升至 6.64
离岸人民币对美元一度升至 6.63
均创下逾两年新高
在东方时事解读看来
这波人民币升值的根本原因在于
第一是中国完全控制了疫情
第二是在此基础之上中国经济得以恢复增长
最好证明就是十一国庆长假中国6.5亿人次出游
按照病毒潜伏期14天计算
22日国家卫健委公布数据中国没有出现一例本土新增病例
与之相对应不需重复赘言的则是外国的疫情与经济
默克尔称不要过分依赖中国经济从侧面说明了对中国经济的依赖
国际货币基金组织报告称“全球唯一正增长的主要经济体是中国”
且由于中国经济体量巨大
在美国大肆印钞、疫情肆虐、国内斗争激烈化的背景下
在美元总有一天要失去霸权的预期下
全世界都有一个基本判断：风景中国这边独好
如桥水基金创始人所言“时间在中国这边”
因此中国发行不评级债券都被外资疯抢
从前不留存人民币的外贸企业也开始储备人民币
数据显示
中美10年期1年期国债收益率均维持在240个基点以上
前三季度境外投资者增持境内股票和债券增长了47%
当前，日元欧元利率已为负、美国名义上保持0利率
中国正利率与它们形成极大利差也吸引了大量外资流入国内
只需存入中国的银行就可无风险赚取利息且利息还不低
何乐而不为？
虽然汇率对中国企业出口有一定影响
但当前情况对汇率敏感性显著降低
因为大部分出口订单是硬需求
印度数十万大军驻守高原寒地
此前消息说印度已向欧美寻求防寒装备
但恐怕即便搬空欧美库存或加足马力生产线全开
欧美也只无法满足印度需求
大批量的订单需求最终或还得通过各种途径落入中国企业之手
除欧美转来的订单外
印度纺织品订单由于疫情原因印度企业无法完成就大量流向了中国
中国在这种各种订单拿到手软的情况下
商品出口对汇率的敏感性会相对钝化
因此我们预期中国外管局目前阶段不会实质干预汇率
也就是会暂时放任人民币升值
若干预恐怕更多的也只是象征性
更不会象许多媒体与分析所说的“通过降低准备金率和利率去应对人民币升值”
人民币货币政策非常稳健，不仅没有降息的趋势
深圳楼市对房贷还有所收紧
用降准、降息应对人民币升值的说法并不准确
如果中国有关部门在这个时间点“果真的实质性干预人民币汇率”
那么，我们的看法将如同2014至2015年“提前启动股市”时一样持质疑态度
至少目前一至一个半月的时间里
即12月中旬之前
我们预期中国经济对人民币升值不那么敏感
但两三个月之后、如果中国已经转为“最低限度内循环”则需要另当别论、需要具体问题具体分析
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补充一些细节：
据相关媒体报道
8月以来，中国家具出口需求暴增
其中北美市场订单同比增长100%、欧洲地区也增长70%左右
其次今年以来中国的笔记本、打印机等办公用品热销欧美
首先说明中国经济恢复后
供应链通畅、生产成本降低、波动小效率高
其次外国疫情反复使供应链断裂生产停顿
生产成本不断拉高，逐渐丧失竞争力
最终导致大量订单涌向中国
由于供不应求，厂商一般优先接高价订单
当卖价变高成本降低时
中国的出口厂商不会过于在乎汇率的影响
由于现在美元信用极度不好且美国经济大幅萎缩
经贸国家从美国赚取美元的几率变小
而在和中国的贸易当中赚取人民币的几率增加
从前不怎么储备人民币的外贸企业
会减少原来将人民币再度兑换成美元这一环节
而选择直接将人民币留在手中以便下次继续与中国贸易往来
因此对人民币的需求也在不断增加
总之，人民币升值的关键因素在于
中国完全控制了疫情以及中国经济恢复了增长
其它因素也包括中国产品在全球的市场占有率更加扩大
必然导致市场对人民币的需求量增加
中美利差的加大、欧元日元区的负利率
吸引全球资金流向国内
October 22
The exchange rate of RMB against US dollar continued to rise for 6 consecutive trading days
The onshore RMB rose to 6.64 against the US dollar
Offshore yuan rose to 6.63 against the US dollar
Both hit new highs in more than two years
According to the interpretation of Dongfang Time
The fundamental reason for this wave of RMB appreciation is that
First, China has completely controlled the epidemic
Second, on this basis, China's economy can resume growth
The best proof is that 650 million people travel in China during the National Day holiday
According to the virus incubation period of 14 days
There is no new local case in China, according to the National Health Commission on October 22
Correspondingly, there is no need to repeat the epidemic situation and economy of foreign countries
Merkel said that we should not rely too much on China's economy, which shows the dependence on China's economy
The International Monetary Fund reported that "the only major economy with positive growth in the world is China"
And because of the huge size of China's economy
Under the background of the United States printing money wantonly, the epidemic situation is rampant, and the domestic struggle is intensified
Under the expectation that the US dollar will lose its hegemony one day
The world has a basic judgment: the scenery of China is unique
As the founder of Bridge Water Fund said, "time is on China's side"
As a result, China's issuance of non rated bonds has been scrambled by foreign investors
In the past, foreign trade enterprises that did not retain RMB began to reserve RMB
Data display
The yields of 10-year and 1-year treasury bonds of China and the United States remained above 240 basis points
Foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and bonds by 47% in the first three quarters
At present, the interest rate of Japanese yen and euro has been negative, and the US maintains zero interest rate in nominal terms
China's positive interest rate has formed a huge interest rate gap with them, which has also attracted a large number of foreign investment into China
Just deposit in the banks of China, you can earn interest without risk and the interest is not low
Why not?
Although the exchange rate has a certain impact on the export of Chinese enterprises
However, the current situation is significantly less sensitive to the exchange rate
Because most export orders are hard demand
Hundreds of thousands of Indian troops stationed in cold Highlands
Previously, it was said that India had sought cold protection equipment from Europe and the United States
But I'm afraid that even if we empty Europe and America's stock or add full horsepower to fully open production lines
Europe and the United States cannot meet India's needs
The demand for large quantities of orders will eventually fall into the hands of Chinese enterprises through various channels
Except for orders transferred from Europe and America
Due to the epidemic situation, India's textile orders went to China in large quantities because of the failure of Indian enterprises to complete
China is in a situation where orders are too many
The sensitivity of commodity export to exchange rate will be relatively passive
Therefore, we do not expect safe to intervene in the exchange rate in real terms at this stage
That is to say, it will temporarily allow the RMB to appreciate
I'm afraid some of them are more symbolic
And it will not "respond to RMB appreciation by reducing reserve ratio and interest rate" as much multimedia and analysis put it
RMB monetary policy is very stable, not only there is no trend of interest rate reduction
Shenzhen real estate market still has some tightening on housing loans
It is not accurate to reduce the reserve rate and interest rate to deal with the appreciation of RMB
If the relevant departments of China "really intervene in the RMB exchange rate substantially" at this point in time
Then, our view will be as skeptical as it was when the stock market was "launched early" in 2014-2015
At least for a month to a half
Before the middle of December
We expect the Chinese economy to be less sensitive to RMB appreciation
However, after two or three months, if China has already turned into a "minimum internal circulation", it needs to be discussed in a different way, and specific problems need to be analyzed
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Add some details:
According to relevant media reports
Since August, China's furniture export demand has soared
Among them, North American market orders increased by 100% year-on-year, and European region also increased by about 70%
Second, since this year, China's notebook, printer and other office supplies are selling well in Europe and the United States
First of all, after China's economic recovery
The supply chain is smooth, the production cost is reduced, the fluctuation is small, and the efficiency is high
Secondly, the supply chain has been broken and production has been suspended due to repeated outbreaks in foreign countries
The cost of production is rising, and the competitiveness is gradually lost
As a result, a large number of orders poured into China
Due to the shortage of supply, manufacturers generally give priority to high price orders
When the selling price is higher and the cost is lower
Chinese exporters will not care too much about the impact of the exchange rate
Due to the extremely bad credit of the US dollar and the sharp contraction of the US economy
Economic and trade countries are less likely to earn dollars from the United States
And the chance of earning RMB in trade with China is increasing
Foreign trade enterprises that used to have little reserve of RMB
It will reduce the process of converting RMB into US dollars again
And choose to keep the RMB directly in hand so as to continue to trade with China next time
As a result, the demand for RMB is also increasing
In short, the key factor of RMB appreciation lies in
China has completely controlled the epidemic and China's economy has resumed growth
Other factors include the increased global market share of Chinese products
It will inevitably lead to an increase in the market demand for RMB
The increase of interest rate spread between China and the United States and the negative interest rate of Euro yen area
Attract global capital flow to China
Statement: If there is any discrepancy in the specific content, first take the "Dongfang Time Global Current Affairs Interpretation · Current Affairs Festival Brief Edition" as the benchmark; secondly, use the " Dongfang Time Universal Current Affairs Interpretation · Current Affairs Random Talk" as a reference.
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