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第232期:关于全球的新能源汽车:从安倍的政治大肠到全球的汽车行业

原文出处: 衍射 2020年11月17日

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YrcpPYT0neZh4WNCIQhN7g

Issue 232: The world is also facing two road choices regarding the source of the new crown virus COVID-19

Original: Diffraction Nov. 17, 2020

东方-时事云评【第20201115-232期】

11月17日
稍早,由于溃疡性大肠炎复发,借口无法做出正确政治判断

安倍决定辞去首相一职

他在下台那一瞬间

按下了日本“最后一次战略投机”战略的“暂停键”

并意味着日本极右政府决定

在必要时有效配合美国有效干扰中国武力解放台湾问题上

要跳上“美国战车”

 

11月2日

日本前首相安倍晋三在辞职后首次返回老家山口县

并连续三天参加政治活动

还公开表示自己的身体状况“飞速好转”

将在2021年回归政坛

 

面对这一戏剧性的一幕我们不仅感叹

安倍可谓是长了一副“会思考、会选择的政治大肠”

这一消息的出现

验证了东方时事解读此前关于安倍可能“三进宫”的评估

侧面验证了关于安倍下台那一刻

按下了日本“最后一次战略投机”战略的“暂停键”的评估

 

有趣的是

在美国大选问题上安倍可谓犯过“历史错误”

当年他错误判断希拉里会当选美国总统

最终不得不在特朗普上台时就去进行“赔礼外交”

值得一提的是

安倍重返政坛似乎并无悬念

只是这次安倍重返政坛与美国大选关联不大

反而与大选后的美国国运没落关系较大

 

安倍一生最大的政治抱负

就是修改和平宪法,使日本成为正常国家

但这一雄心壮志恐怕在美国那里永远不会实现

如果日本走上靠近中国的道路,反而有可能实现

日本成为正常国家对中国没什么影响

但必须的条件就是日本要真诚反省历史

在历史问题上正式给出一个中国人民可以接受的交代

日本如果真的看到美国不行了

这个成为正常国家的前提条件

对日本极右而言恐怕并非不可逾越

 

安倍本人是一个极右政客

从内心深处对中国的强大感到抵触

但安倍也是一个非常现实的政客

从安倍两次变脸把上台下台当儿戏来看

今天的日本之所以不是正常国家

与日本政客(用常人的观点衡量)的不正常也有莫大的关系

不过,日本政客的不正常与日本的不正常之间

是一个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题

究竟是先有鸡还是先有蛋?

朋友们如有兴趣可以琢磨一下

 

现今世界上大部分人都在认为美国不行了

十月底蓬佩奥在亚洲进行反华路演

试图拉拢印度尼西亚、斯里兰卡等国

印度尼西亚提前表示拒绝选边站,不想陷入反华运动

斯里兰卡总统表示

过去美国外交官最喜欢与斯里兰卡谈人权

这次斯里兰卡则要提醒意美国注意自己的人权问题

尴尬之余,蓬佩奥只得说希望将过去的事情翻篇

即便不签署协议也不会伤害两国关系之类的话

美国落到今天这个地步

可谓是“落架凤凰不如鸡”

 

我们知道

日本首相菅义伟在视察福岛第一核电站时

曾询问净化处理后的核污水能否饮用

东京电力工作人员则回应称:“如果稀释的话就可以喝”

 

核废水是安倍心里的一个负担,也是日本的一个负担

安倍下台的目的之一

就是想用“跳上美国战车”与西方做两个极其现实的利益交换

一是交换到奥运会

二是交换到欧美允许日本排放核废水的承诺

由于安倍已经辞职,即便其传递出要重返政坛的信号

但这个脏活恐怕还得菅义伟政府来完成

由于西方对“所有盟友中最擅长投机”的日本

始终心存戒心

所以在承诺日本排放核废水的问题上美国(西方)并没有及时答应

再加上在奥运会问题上始终没有一句准话

于是乎,日本极右甚至等不及安倍普三的“三进宫”

就一气之下重新回归“最后一次战略投机”状态

 

在东方时事解读的观察中

西方允许日本排放核废水

与日本承诺在中国武统台湾时配合美国有效干扰是一对要价

如果西方不允许日本排放核废水

未来日本是否配合美国对中国解放台湾进行有效干扰就要打问号

日本的要价姿态通过安倍可能重返政坛的姿态表达了出来

如果仍拿不到这个承诺

安倍真有可能“三进宫”,也就是三次出任日本首相

再次按下已经处于暂停的“暂停键”,以重启“最后一次战略投机”进程

这时的日本就会从“美国战车”上正式跳下

 

菅义伟已经提出了“净化处理后的核污水能否饮用”的问题

随员“深知朕心”,赶紧回答说“稀释后可以饮用”

有效的“稀释”,大概得用整个太平洋的水去稀释才行

这句话的意思就等同于美国允许日本排放核废水

下属的马屁之外、就是刻意的提问了

就看接下来美国与欧洲答不答应了“立刻排放”了

在西方看来

日本答应配合美国实质性干扰解放台湾属于“期货”

换言之,日本随时可能视情况而定、或半路跳车

而日本排放核废水可是实打实的“现货”

一旦排放就不可能收回

这些核废水将随着洋流

最终漂洋过海到达北美洲的西海岸,甚至更远的地方

双方谈不拢问题恐怕就出在这里

 

在安倍摆出要重返政坛、日本极右重启“最后一次战略投机”架势时

菅义伟一边对西方开出条件,询问核废水是否能饮用

一边开始让日本汽车业向中国大陆投资

11月2日

日媒介绍称,中国正进一步加快对环境友好型汽车的普及

到2035年,电动汽车等新能源汽车或将占据中国新车销售的一半

15年之后;传统的燃油车有可能在中国被禁止出售

作为全球最大汽车市场的中国改变方针

势必对各国汽车制造商、特别是欧美日的带来根本性的影响

日资汽车制造商打算在中国市场上大力发展新能源汽车

在今年秋季举办的北京国际汽车展览会上

日产汽车首次在国外公开了旗下新款电动汽车

并表示预定于2021年开始在中国销售

本田汽车也发布了电动概念车,打算批量生产电动汽车

 

中国日前发布

《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021-2035年)》提出

到2025年

新能源汽车新车销售量达到汽车新车销售总量的20%左右

到2035年

除工程或商业用车外纯电动汽车成为新销售车辆的主流

由于中国是世界第一大汽车市场

而且中国汽车业到目前为止

和欧美日三大汽车制造集团没有根本性冲突

这份文件的发布意味着

欧美日三家谁想在中国市场上站稳脚跟就必须马上行动起来

否则中国自己的企业做起来后;就会实现“弯道超车”

恐怕他们的好日子也就算了到头了

这就是逼着欧美日三家做出抉择

谁生谁死就在各自的一念之间

 

一般而言

反企业(行业)垄断至少要达到三家的规模

因为两家很容易垄断三家相对不容易垄断

即便是欧美日三家达成垄断

中国还有自己的企业在做新能源汽车

 

新能源汽车有两条路线

一条是电能源汽车

中国在车载电池能量密度方面已经达到世界领先水平

一条是燃料汽车

这条路线日本技术领先

中国现在具备发展新能源汽车的全部要素

包括领先的车载电池技术、华为的汽车操作系统

领先的5G技术和必不可少的北斗卫星导航技术

中国的企业有的是市场

中国的企业要的只是时间

日本的企业知道,这是他的最后一次机会

所以反应非常积极

匆忙宣布要来中国投资搞新能源汽车

要在北京国际汽车展览会上首次公开新款电动汽车

 

在欧美日三大汽车集团中

日本是唯一一个没有卫星导航系统的

也是市场资源相对薄弱的一方

而且还有一个三家共有的弱点:没有5G

日本汽车现在也只有新能源汽车燃料技术还值点钱

如果不依靠中国大陆市场与中国卫星导航技术

日本汽车行业在欧美的打击下恐怕前景只能黯淡

这都促使日本汽车业不得不登陆中国大陆!而且跑得比谁都快

日本汽车业登陆中国大陆

表面上是自己主动选择的

实际上是被中国的新能源汽车政策逼出来的

中国用这一政策牵制日本汽车业

这也会促使安倍可能真的“三进宫”

最后不得不把“最后一次战略投机”进行到底

 

11月3日

新华社发文称

问题车都已经在中国召回了,特斯拉在海外却不认账

甩锅中国用户使用习惯和监管部门压力

这种无理傲慢不能惯

此前,特斯拉因存在安全隐患

在中国市场召回部分进口Model S、Model X电动汽车

但却在给美国国家公路交通安全管理局的一封信中

否认其车辆悬架存在隐患

并表示出现损坏并非质量问题,而是部分中国车主滥用造成

 

傲慢是有代价的,该敲打就要敲打

新华社说特斯拉的无理傲慢不能惯

表面上是说给特斯拉听

其实也是说给其他人特别是搞最后一次战略投机的日本听

中国在这个时候修理特斯拉(美国经济)

某种意义上讲也是示意日本“你现在还有机会”

再过一段时间

中国自己的新能源车企出来了,美国的在华企业做大了

日本汽车业恐怕是连一点机会都没有了

从日产丰田的积极表现上看

日本方面对这个信号不仅“照单全收”,而且是心领神会

 

从10月27日开始

特斯拉公司将向欧洲出口中国制造的电动汽车

而不是从美国向欧洲出口

意味着产地是中国的特斯拉汽车有着明显的成本优势

中国有自己的新能源车企

特斯拉到中国来是因为有钱赚、成本低

如果不服气可以离开中国

但它离不开中国、也不愿意离开中国

 

无论是中国逼日本汽车业做出选择

还是中国在这时候修理特斯拉

都与另一件事异曲同工

那就是中国至今都没有从根本上去处理台湾的经济

就是要用台湾经济的相关行业去牵制、挤压日韩经济

 

中国发布的新能源或者环境友好型汽车发展规划

是有现实意义的

它首先是一个战略政策

而不仅仅是一个经济文件或者一个行业政策

这也意味着中国判断整个形势距离全面摊牌更加近了

 

Earlier, due to the recurrence of ulcerative colitis, the excuse was unable to make correct political judgments
Abe decided to resign as prime minister
The moment he stepped down
Pressed the "pause button" of Japan's "last strategic speculation" strategy
And means that the Japanese ultra-right government decided
Effectively cooperate with the United States when necessary to effectively interfere with China’s armed liberation of Taiwan
To jump on the "American tank"

November 2
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returns to his hometown of Yamaguchi for the first time after resignation
And participated in political activities for three consecutive days
Also publicly stated that his physical condition is "rapidly improving"
Will return to politics in 2021

Facing this dramatic scene, we not only sigh
Abe can be described as having a "political intestine who can think and choose"
The appearance of the news
Verifies the previous assessment of Abe’s possible "Three Entering Palace"
The side verified the moment Abe stepped down
Pressed the "pause button" evaluation of Japan's "last strategic speculation" strategy

Interestingly
Abe can be said to have committed a "historical mistake" on the US election
He misjudged that Hillary Clinton would be elected president of the United States.
In the end, he had to engage in "compensation diplomacy" when Trump came to power
It is worth mentioning that
Abe's return to politics seems to have no suspense
It’s just that Abe’s return to politics has little to do with the U.S. election.
On the contrary, it has more to do with the decline of U.S. national luck after the election.

 Abe's greatest political ambition in life
It is to amend the peace constitution to make Japan a normal country
But this ambition may never be realized in the United States
If Japan embarks on a path closer to China, it will be possible instead
Japan's becoming a normal country has no effect on China
But the necessary condition is that Japan must sincerely reflect on history
Give an official account acceptable to the Chinese people on historical issues
If Japan really sees the United States is not good any more,
This is a prerequisite for a normal country
It may not be insurmountable for Japan’s extreme right

Abe himself is a far-right politician
He feels resistant to China's power from the bottom of his heart
But Abe is also a very realistic politician
Judging from the fact that Abe changed his face twice and took off “stage” as a trifling matter
The reason why Japan today is not a normal country
It also has a lot to do with the abnormalities of Japanese politicians (measured by ordinary people’s views)
However, between the abnormalities of Japanese politicians and the abnormalities of Japan
Is it a question of the chicken or the egg?
Did the chicken or the egg come first?
If you are interested, you can think about it

Most people in the world nowadays think that the United States is no longer good
Pompeo conducts anti-China roadshow in Asia at the end of October
Trying to win over countries such as Indonesia and Sri Lanka
Indonesia said in advance that it refused to choose sides and did not want to fall into the anti-China movement
The President of Sri Lanka said
In the past, American diplomats liked to talk to Sri Lanka about human rights
This time Sri Lanka wants to remind the United States to pay attention to its human rights issues
In embarrassment, Pompeo had to say that he hoped to turn over the past.
Even if you don’t sign an agreement, it won’t hurt the relationship between the two countries.
America has fallen to where it is today
It can be described as "a phoenix without hair is ​​not as good as a chicken"

We know
When Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga inspected the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
Asked whether the purified nuclear sewage can be consumed
The Tokyo Electric Power staff responded: "If you dilute it, you can drink it."

Nuclear waste water is a burden in Abe's mind, and it is also a burden in Japan
One of the purposes of Abe's step down
I just want to use "jump on the American tank" to exchange two extremely realistic interests with the West.
One is to switch to the Olympics
The second is to exchange commitments to Europe and the United States to allow Japan to discharge nuclear waste water
Since Abe has resigned, even if he sends a signal to return to politics
But this dirty work may have to be done by the Yoshihide Suga government
The West has always been wary of Japan, which is "the most opportunistic of all its allies."
Therefore, the United States (the West) did not promptly agree to the issue of Japan’s nuclear waste water discharge.
In addition, there is never a word on the Olympics
Ever since, Japan’s extreme right can’t even wait for Shinzo Abe’s "Three Entering Palace"
Just angrily returned to the "last strategic speculation" state

In the observation of Dongfang Time
The West allows Japan to discharge nuclear waste water
It is a pair of asking prices that Japan promises to cooperate with the United States to interfere effectively when China's military unifying Taiwan
If the West does not allow Japan to discharge nuclear wastewater
Whether Japan will cooperate with the United States in effectively interfering with China's liberation of Taiwan in the future will be questioned
Japan’s asking price posture is expressed through the posture that Abe may return to politics
If you still can't get this promise
It's really possible that Abe will enter the palace three times, that is, be the prime minister of Japan three times
Press the pause button again to restart the "last strategic speculation" process
At this time, Japan will officially jump off the "American tank"

Yoshihide Suga has raised the question of whether the purified nuclear sewage can be consumed
The Attaché "knows his heart" and quickly replied, "You can drink after dilution"
Effective "dilution" probably requires dilution with water from the entire Pacific Ocean
The meaning of this sentence is equivalent to the United States allowing Japan to discharge nuclear waste water
In addition to the flattering of subordinates, there are deliberate questions
It depends on whether the U.S. and Europe agree to "emission immediately".
In the west
Japan's promise to cooperate with the United States to substantially interfere with the liberation of Taiwan is a "futures"
In other words, Japan may at any time depending on the situation, or jump halfway.
Japan’s nuclear waste water discharge is a real “spot”
Once discharged, it is impossible to recover
These nuclear waste water will follow the ocean currents
Eventually cross the ocean to reach the west coast of North America, and even farther away
I'm afraid that the two sides can't agree on the problem lies in this

When Abe assumes that he will return to politics and Japan’s extreme right restarts the "last strategic speculation" posture
Yoshihide Suga offered conditions to the West, asking whether the nuclear waste water was drinkable
While starting to let the Japanese auto industry invest in mainland China
November 2
Japanese media said that China is further accelerating the popularization of environmentally friendly cars
By 2035, new energy vehicles such as electric vehicles may account for half of China's new car sales
15 years later; traditional fuel vehicles may be banned for sale in China
China as the world's largest auto market changes its policy
It is bound to have a fundamental impact on automobile manufacturers in various countries, especially in Europe, America and Japan.
Japanese automakers intend to vigorously develop new energy vehicles in the Chinese market
At the Beijing International Automobile Exhibition held this fall

Nissan Motor unveiled its new electric vehicles abroad for the first time
And said it is scheduled to start sales in China in 2021
Honda Motor also released an electric concept car, intending to mass produce electric cars

China released
"New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" proposed
By 2025
The sales volume of new energy vehicles reaches about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles
By 2035
In addition to engineering or commercial vehicles, pure electric vehicles have become the mainstream of new sales vehicles
Since China is the world’s largest auto market
And the Chinese auto industry so far
There is no fundamental conflict with the three major automobile manufacturing groups in Europe, America and Japan
The publication of this document means
Whoever wants to gain a firm foothold in the Chinese market must act immediately
Otherwise, when China's own enterprises are set up, they will realize "overtaking in corners"
I'm afraid their good days are over
This is forcing Europe, America and Japan to make a choice
Whoever lives or dies is between each thought

Generally speaking
Anti-corporate (industry) monopoly must reach at least three scales
Because two are easy to monopolize and three are relatively difficult to monopolize
Even if the three companies in Europe, America and Japan reached a monopoly
China also has its own companies producing new energy vehicles

There are two routes for new energy vehicles
One is electric energy vehicles
China has reached the world's leading level in terms of energy density of car batteries
One is a fuel car
Japan's technology is leading this route
China now has all the elements for the development of new energy vehicles
Including leading car battery technology, Huawei's car operating system
Leading 5G technology and essential Beidou satellite navigation technology
Chinese companies have a market
What Chinese companies want is time
Japanese companies know that this is his last chance
So the reaction was very positive
Hastily announced that he would come to China to invest in new energy vehicles
The new electric car will be unveiled for the first time at the Beijing International Automobile Exhibition

Among the three major automobile groups in Europe, America and Japan
Japan is the only one without a satellite navigation system
It is also the party with relatively weak market resources
And there is a weakness shared by the three companies: no 5G
Japanese cars now only have new energy vehicle fuel technology which is worth a bit of money
If it don’t rely on the Chinese mainland market and Chinese satellite navigation technology
Japan's auto industry may only be bleak under the blow of Europe and America
This has prompted the Japanese auto industry to have to land in mainland China! And it runs faster than anyone else
Japanese auto industry landed in mainland China
On the surface, he chose
It was actually forced out by China’s new energy vehicle policy
China uses this policy to contain the Japanese auto industry
This will also prompt Abe to actually "three enter the palace"
Finally had to carry out the "last strategic speculation" to the end

November 3
Xinhua News Agency said
The problematic cars have been recalled in China, but Tesla does not admit it overseas
Shifting the blame to Chinese users' habits and pressure from regulatory authorities
This kind of unreasonable arrogance cannot be used to
Previously, Tesla had a safety hazard
Recall some imported Model S and Model X electric vehicles in the Chinese market
But in a letter to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration of the United States
Denying that there are hidden dangers in its vehicle suspension
And said that the damage is not a quality problem, but caused by abuse by some Chinese car owners

Arrogance comes at a price
Xinhua News Agency says Tesla's unreasonable arrogance cannot be used to
On the surface, it’s for Tesla
In fact, it’s also for others, especially Japan, which engaged in the last strategic speculation.
China is fixing Tesla at this time (US economy)
In a sense, it also signaled that Japan "you still have a chance now"
Some time later
China's own new energy car companies have emerged, and American companies in China have grown bigger
I am afraid that the Japanese auto industry has even run out of opportunities
From the positive performance of Nissan Toyota
The Japanese side not only "accepts all orders" to this signal, but also fully understands it.

From October 27th
Tesla will export Chinese-made electric cars to Europe
Instead of exporting from the US to Europe
It means that Tesla cars made in China have obvious cost advantages
China has its own new energy car company
Tesla came to China because of money and low cost
If it is not convinced, it can leave China
But it cannot do without China, and is unwilling to leave China

Whether China is forcing the Japanese auto industry to make a choice
Or is China fixing Tesla at this time
Are all the same as another thing
That is, China has not fundamentally dealt with Taiwan’s economy.
It is to use related industries in Taiwan’s economy to contain and squeeze the Japanese and South Korean economies

China's new energy or environmentally friendly vehicle development plan
Is realistic
It is first a strategic policy
Not just an economic document or an industry policy
This also means that China judges that the whole situation is closer to a full-scale showdown.
(Network translation)

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