东方-时事云评【第20201015-180期】

10月9日，美国国家反间谍和安全中心主任称，俄罗斯、中国和伊朗似乎正阻碍美国获得新冠疫苗，这种荒唐的逻辑从另一个角度说明，美国习惯于在疫苗问题上无中生有。于内,于外,都是。

特朗普曾声称美国有望在11月份甚至10月份获得新冠疫苗，而现在美国却指责中、俄、伊阻碍美国获得疫苗，不禁让人怀疑美国（西方）到底有没有真正研制疫苗，从美国和英国的疫苗先后出事并暂停试验的情况看，其答案不言而喻，西方疫苗研制的真实情况恐怕只以用非常糟糕这几个字去形容。

美国指责中、俄、伊的背后，意味着美国想获得的新冠疫苗与美国（西方）无关，只与“非西方国家”有关，世界上真正有能力研制疫苗且大规模生产并全力向外提供服务的国家只有中国，没有之一，俄罗斯虽然生化技术也属一流，但其生产能力值得怀疑。

另外，俄罗斯国内的疫情严重，俄罗斯不可能优先向国外大量提供有效疫苗。显然，西方如果把获得疫苗的期望放到俄罗斯身上是不切实际的，最后剩下的一种可能性就是从中国获得疫苗。

而中国经过十一长假，大量人员出游（6亿多人次），向世界再次证实中国完全控制住疫情不容置疑，虽不排除出现零星疫情的可能，但属于正常现象，并不影响大局。再加上中国疫苗研制领先且具备大规模生产能力，中国当然有能力向全球提供疫苗产品，这也是中国最近宣布加入疫苗全球计划最为合适的时机。

中国非常善于抓住类似的机会宣传，一边是十一大规模人员流动、拉动经济恢复，一边借机宣传中国将向全球提供疫苗产品服务，时机把握上非常到位。

不难看出，美国表面上攻击中俄伊阻碍他获得疫苗，实际上其矛头直指中国。因为伊朗和俄罗斯都不具备向全球提供疫苗的能力，而俄罗斯的疫情已经猛烈反弹，这种情况下不得不让人产生怀疑。如果俄罗斯的疫苗有效，为什么俄罗斯的疫情没有得到控制？

据俄罗斯新冠疫情防控指挥部10月9日通报，过去一昼夜全俄新增新冠确诊病例12126例，已超过此前最高纪录。此外，哈萨克斯坦卫生部长近日称，自3月中旬发生新冠肺炎疫情以来，该国共有1万2千多名医务工作者感染新冠肺炎。

我们注意到，前不久哈萨克斯坦不明原因的肺炎到现在没有看到任何后续报道，而哈医务人员感染一万多人，其数量非常巨大。哈萨克斯坦紧邻中国且双边关系良好，中国抗疫成功的经验摆在那，为什么哈国疫情如此严重？为什么不能抄好中国的作业，也不可能大规模使用中医药？前段时间哈出现的不明原因肺炎到底是怎么回事？

哈政府把新冠肺炎和不明原因肺炎分开统计，说明这两种病毒有明显区分。哈不明原因的肺炎爆发如此之久，为何没有后续报道？不仅中国、俄罗斯没有相关报道,世卫组织也没有跟进，哈自己也没有下文。

新疆前不久爆发过新冠疫情，而新疆距离哈萨克斯坦不远，新疆的新冠疫情极有可能夹杂了哈不明原因肺炎，即便如此中国也没有任何说法，所有的疑点很容易让人联想到一种猜测，哈不明原因肺炎有可能是一种新病毒，而这种新病毒出现在哈萨克斯坦，除了那里有美军的生化研究所，另一个原因就是哈与中国和俄罗斯都相邻，地理上向俄罗斯和中国定向输入疫情非常方便。

中国官方曾证实中国的某种疫苗能够覆盖病毒变异，也就是说不管新疆疫情里有没有夹杂哈不明肺炎病例，对中国而言都不成问题。如果从这个角度看，哈的疫情不能得到控制，除了上述客观原因外，是否还有别的原因？比如哈国病毒疫苗的研制程序能否正常启动？

中国最终获得哈国境内病毒信息不成问题，但“合法性与合理性”或有问题，这或能解释中国为什么没有任何相关后续消息出现。所以我们有理由怀疑或有势力一直在不同层面、竭力阻止揭露哈不明原因肺炎的真相。

但如果这样为什么俄罗斯对此没有任何看法？在东方时事解读看来，哈不明肺炎爆发非常猛烈，或从地理或从时间上看，中国新疆和香港可能都受到了波及，或许哈出现不明原因病毒，与美陆军传染病研究所出现新冠病毒的情况类似。所以在目前阶段中国也只能是点到为止，没有深入揭露。

如果事实果真如此，就意味着这种病毒的出现是一种生化袭击，而攻击的方向无疑是与哈距离很近的中国和俄罗斯。即便如此，以中国在抗击新冠疫情中表现出的技术实力与经济实力及组织能力，中国控制住哈不明原因病毒的攻击不成问题。而俄罗斯的情况显然不容乐观。

正如之前东方时事解读反复警示的那样，如果哈不明原因的病毒夹杂在新冠病毒当中，而俄罗斯声称的疫苗只针对新冠病毒有效而对这种不明病毒无效，从而造成俄罗斯疫情如今猛烈反弹，一旦如此，则毫无疑问俄罗斯就遭到了等效的生化袭击。

此情况下，俄罗斯的最后选择最终或会偏向西方，一方面白俄罗斯问题、乌克兰问题和纳卡问题受到西方极大的压力；另一方面疫情问题无法解决，俄罗斯必然需要寻找出路，而且如果疫情果真是等效的生化袭击，在第五纵队的里应外合下，再加上普京身边的人出点问题，出现所谓的“出走潮”。那么，普京政权自然是罪责难逃，为了脱罪、甩锅中国无疑是最容易想到的办法，因此尽管目前这些猜测没有得到事实验证，但要高度警觉其发生的可能性。

再次强调，要高度关注哈不明原因肺炎的后续报道，随着新冠疫情在中国之外的国家全面反弹，对中国而言也存在现实压力。十一长假大量人员出游、拉动经济恢复，别的国家只有羡慕嫉妒恨，他们在疫情得不到控制的情况下，最终也很容易在甩锅中国的问题上达成共识，这种压力对中国是客观的;中国要做好应对的准备，但这种局面本质上还是新冠疫情层面的南亚破局。

此外需要指出的是，就美国指责中、俄、伊阻碍美国获取新冠疫苗一事，如果俄罗斯仅仅做出澄清并否认美国的说法，那么就不算新冠疫情层面的南亚破局。但如果俄罗斯的澄清是走向“集体甩锅中国”的基础上，无疑意味着形成了新冠疫情层面的南亚破局。

10月9日，外交部发言人，就中国加入“新冠肺炎疫苗实施计划”答记者问时表示，中国同全球疫苗免疫联盟签署协议，正式加入“新冠肺炎疫苗实施计划”。这是中国秉持人类卫生健康共同体理念，履行自身承诺推动疫苗成为全球公共产品的一个重要举措。

2020年9月5日，中国国药集团中国生物开发的新冠疫苗公布。疫苗目前已进入第三阶段人体测试，但不在COVAX计划内。

中国加入“新冠肺炎疫苗实施计划”，意味着全人类（包括美国人民）距离拿到疫苗非常近了，这对西方和俄罗斯都是压力，与之前俄罗斯承诺向世界提供疫苗有本质区别。

巴西、阿联酋和世卫组织都公开承认中国疫苗安全有效，但俄罗斯的疫苗至今没有得到这样的评价，中国加入该计划无疑会成为提供疫苗的主角，包括西方最后拿到的疫苗都可能是中国的，西方如果想用需要先申请，而中国承诺优先向亚非拉国家提供，这样一来西方的优先级将靠后，无疑对西方是压力。

另一方面，中国此前没有加入该计划，某种程度上是为俄罗斯打疫苗牌创造空间，但俄罗斯如今已出现令人高度警惕的迹象，且俄罗斯的疫苗连其国内的疫情都无法解决，更别说为全人类提供服务了。

中国此时加入疫苗计划可谓水到渠成，这样一来俄罗斯疫苗牌的重要性将会逐渐淡化，对俄罗斯也是一种反向压力。这正是中国此时提出，加入“新冠肺炎疫苗实施计划”的两个主要意图，再结合国务院近日印发《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》，全面推动注册制落地，这些都说明形势已非常严峻。

冬季即将来临，欧美的疫情正在猛烈地二次爆发，深陷疫情泥潭的西方基本无解，英、法等多国单日新增人数创下新高，以至于不得不考虑重启封控措施，这种情况下他们如继续挑衅中国则可谓“不作不死”。

未来，中国的疫苗他们用还是不用？如果西方重新严格封锁，对经济无疑雪上加霜，如果封锁不严又起不到效果，这种困难局面西方一定会预料到。因此、仍然是他们集体甩锅中国的可能性在大大增加。

所以，新冠疫情层面的南亚破局离我们越来越近，最后的关键在于俄罗斯的态度，日本、韩国和印度等必然会加入甩锅中国的阵营，巴西虽然想用中国的疫苗,但其内部恐怕在最关键时刻在西方的压力下很难保持一致，因此中国此时加入疫苗全球计划，也可以在关键时刻到来之前尽可能迟滞巴西这样的国家甩锅中国的速度。

在东方时事解读看来，南亚破局或从新冠疫情层面开始最后切换到传统层面，虽然形势异常严峻，但相对于2014年情况要好很多，中国争取的这几年时间非常重要，让中国成功避免了极恶局面，其中最关键的就是军改已基本完成，军改与群众路线高度契合，其本身就是群众路线非常重要的一环，其实在我们的观察与评估中群众路线的核心就是军改，剩下的才是向金融反腐和文化反腐实质性突破延伸，虽然这两步目前还没有走完，但在军改基本完成的前提下，这未完的两步虽会造成一些问题、甚至是不小的问题，但总体上并无须过多地担心。

Dongfang Time Cloud Review【No. 20201015-180】

On October 9, the director of the US National Counterintelligence and Security Center stated that Russia, China, and Iran seemed to be preventing the United States from obtaining the COVID-19 vaccine. This absurd logic showed from another angle that the United States is accustomed to making out of nothing about vaccine. Inside, outside, all.

Trump once claimed that the United States is expected to obtain the COVID-19 vaccine in November or even October, but now the United States accuses China, Russia, and Iran of obstructing the United States’ access to vaccines. One cannot help but wonder whether the United States (the West) has actually developed a vaccine. According to the situation of the British vaccine accidents and suspension of trials, the answer is self-evident. The real situation of western vaccine development may only be described in the words "very bad".

Behind the US accusations of China, Russia, and Iran, it means that the COVID-19 vaccine that the US wants to obtain has nothing to do with the United States (the West), but only related to “non-Western countries”. The only country in the world that has the real ability to develop vaccines and mass-produce them and provide services to the outside world is China. The only country is China, and none of others. Although Russia's biochemical technology is also top-notch, its production capacity is questionable.

In addition, the domestic epidemic in Russia is serious, and Russia cannot give priority to providing effective vaccines abroad. Obviously, it is unrealistic for the West to place the expectation of obtaining vaccines on Russia. The last possibility is to obtain vaccines from China.

After the National Day long holiday in China, a large number of people traveled (more than 600 million person-times), confirming to the world that China has completely controlled the epidemic. Although the possibility of sporadic epidemics cannot be ruled out, it is a normal phenomenon and does not affect the overall situation. Coupled with China's leading vaccine development and large-scale production capacity, China certainly has the ability to provide vaccine products to the world. This is also the most appropriate time for China to announce its participation in the global vaccine program.

China is very good at seizing similar opportunities for publicity. On the one hand, it is the National Day large-scale person movement and economic recovery, and on the other hand, it takes the opportunity to publicize that China will provide vaccine products and services to the world. The timing is very good.

It is not difficult to see that the United States has attacked China, Russia and Iran on the surface to prevent him from obtaining vaccines, but in fact it has targeted China. Because neither Iran nor Russia has the ability to provide vaccines to the world, and the Russian epidemic has rebounded violently, people have to be suspicious in this situation. If the Russian vaccine is effective, why has the Russian epidemic not been controlled?

According to the report of the Russian COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters on October 9, there were 12,126 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia in the past day and night, exceeding the previous record. In addition, the Minister of Health of Kazakhstan recently stated that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pneumonia in mid-March, more than 12,000 medical workers in the country have been infected with the COVID-19 pneumonia.

We have noticed that the unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan not long ago has not seen any follow-up reports, and the Kazakhstan medical staff has infected more than 10,000 people, the number of which is very large. Kazakhstan is close to China and has good bilateral relations. China's successful experience in fighting the epidemic lies there. Why is the epidemic in Kazakhstan so severe? Why can't we copy China's homework well, nor can we use Chinese traditional medicine on a large scale? What happened to the unexplained pneumonia that appeared in Kazakhstan some time ago?

The Kazakh government separates statistics on COVID-19 pneumonia and unexplained pneumonia, indicating that the two viruses are clearly distinguished. The unexplained pneumonia outbreak has lasted so long, why is there no follow-up report? Not only did China and Russia have no relevant reports, the WHO did not follow up, and Kazakhstan himself did not follow.

The COVID-19 epidemic broke out in Xinjiang not long ago, and Xinjiang is not far from Kazakhstan. The COVID-19 epidemic in Xinjiang is most likely to be mixed with the unexplained pneumonia. Even so, China does not have any statement. All doubts are easily reminiscent of a guess, Kazakhstan unexplained pneumonia may be a new virus, and this new virus appeared in Kazakhstan. In addition to the U.S. Army’s Biochemical Research Institute there, another reason is that Kazakhstan is adjacent to China and Russia, and it is very convenient to import the epidemic situation to Russia and China Geographically.

Chinese officials have confirmed that a certain vaccine in China can cover the virus mutation, which means that no matter whether there are cases of unexplained pneumonia in Xinjiang, it is not a problem for China. If viewed from this angle, Kazakhstan's epidemic cannot be controlled, are there other reasons besides the above objective reasons? For example, can the development process of the Kazakhstan virus vaccine be started normally?

In the end, it is not a problem for China to obtain information about the virus in Kazakhstan, but the "legitimacy and rationality" may be problematic, which may explain why there is no relevant follow-up news in China. Therefore, we have reason to doubt that there may have some forces to prevent the revealing of the truth of unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan at different levels.

But if so, why does Russia have no opinion on this? According to Dongfang Time, the outbreak of unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan is very violent, or in terms of geography or time, China's Xinjiang and Hong Kong may have been affected. The occurrence of unidentified virus in Kazakhstan is similar to that of COVID-29 Virus in US Army Institute of Infectious Diseases. Therefore, at the current stage, China can only click to the end without in-depth disclosure.

If this is the case, it means that the emergence of this virus is a biochemical attack, and the direction of the attack is undoubtedly China and Russia, which are very close to Kazakhstan. Even so, with China's technical and economic strength and organizational capabilities in fighting the COVID-19 epidemic, China will not be a problem to control the attacks of the unexplained virus in Kazakhstan. The situation in Russia is clearly not optimistic.

As the previous Dongfang Time has repeatedly warned, if an unexplained virus is mixed with the COVID-19 virus, and the vaccine claimed by Russia is only effective against the COVID-19 virus and ineffective against this unknown virus, the Russian epidemic has now rebounded violently. There is no doubt that Russia has suffered an equivalent biochemical attack.

Under this circumstance, Russia’s final choice may eventually be biased towards the West. On the one hand, the Belarusian issue, the Ukrainian issue, and the Naka issue are under great pressure from the West; on the other hand, if the epidemic problem cannot be resolved, Russia must find a way out, and if the epidemic is a true equivalent biochemical attack with the cooperation of the fifth column and the problems of the people around Putin, the so-called "exodus" appeared. So, Putin's regime is naturally hard to escape. To get rid of the blame, it is undoubtedly the easiest way to shift the blame to China. Therefore, although these speculations have not been verified by facts, we must be highly alert to the possibility of their occurrence.

Once again, we must pay close attention to follow-up reports of unexplained pneumonia in Kazakhstan. With the full rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries other than China, there is also real pressure on China. A large number of people traveled during the National Day long holiday to stimulate economic recovery. Other countries only have envy and hatred. When the epidemic is not under control, it is easy for them to reach a consensus on the issue of shifting the blame to China. Such pressure is objective to China and China needs to be prepared to respond, but this situation is essentially a breakthrough in South Asia at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic.

In addition, it should be pointed out that if the United States accuses China, Russia, and Iran of obstructing the United States’ access to the COVID-19 vaccine, if Russia only clarifies and denies the United States’ claims, then it will not be considered a break in South Asia at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic. However, if Russia’s clarification is based on a “collective shifting blame to China”, it will undoubtedly mean that South Asia has broken the situation at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic.

On October 9, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to a reporter's question on China's participation in the "COVID-19 Vaccine Implementation Plan" and stated that China has signed an agreement with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization to formally join the "COVID-19 Vaccine Implementation Plan." This is an important measure for China to uphold the concept of a community of human health and fulfill its commitment to promote vaccines as a global public product.

On September 5, 2020, the COVID-19 vaccine developed by China National Pharmaceutical Group China Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was announced. The vaccine has now entered the third phase of human testing, but it is not in the COVAX plan.

China's participation in the "COVID-19 Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Plan" means that all mankind (including the American people) is very close to getting the vaccine. This is pressure on the West and Russia, and it is fundamentally different from the previous Russia's promise to provide the world with a vaccine.

Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and the World Health Organization have all publicly acknowledged that China’s vaccines are safe and effective, but Russia’s vaccines have not yet received such evaluations. China’s participation in the program will undoubtedly become the protagonist of vaccine provision, including the last vaccines obtained by the West may be Chinese. If the West wants to use it, it needs to apply first, and China promises to give priority to Asian, African and Latin American countries. This way, the priority of the West will be lower, which will undoubtedly be pressure on the West.

On the other hand, China has not joined the plan before, which is to some extent creating space for Russia to play the vaccine card, but Russia has now shown signs of high alertness, and Russia’s vaccines cannot even solve the domestic epidemic. Not to mention serving all mankind.

It is natural for China to join the vaccine program at this time, so that the importance of the Russian vaccine brand will gradually fade, and it will also be a counter-pressure to Russia. This is exactly the two main intentions of China to join the "COVID-19 Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Plan" at this time, combined with the "Opinions on Further Improving the Quality of Listed Companies" issued by the State Council recently, to comprehensively promote the implementation of the registration system, all of which indicate that the situation is very serious.

Winter is approaching, and the epidemic in Europe and the United States is violently breaking out again. The West is basically in the quagmire of the epidemic. The number of new cases in a single day in the United Kingdom, France and other countries hit a new high, so that they have to consider restarting the containment measures. If they continue to provoke China, it can be said that they " Do not do not die."

In the future, will they use or not use Chinese vaccines? If the West tightens the blockade again, it will undoubtedly worsen the economy. If the blockade is not strict and will not be effective, the West will definitely anticipate this difficult situation. Therefore, the possibility that they will still collectively shift blame to China is greatly increasing.

Therefore, the breakthrough in South Asia at the level of the COVID-19 epidemic is getting closer and closer to us. The final key lies in the attitude of Russia. Japan, South Korea, and India will inevitably join the camp of shifting blame to China. Although Brazil wants to use Chinese vaccines, it may be hard to maintain internal consistency under the pressure of the West at the most critical moment. Therefore, China's participation in the global vaccine plan at this time can also delay the speed of countries like Brazil shifting blame to China as far as possible before the critical moment arrives.

From the perspective of Dongfang Time, South Asia may break the situation or switch from the COVID-19 epidemic level to the traditional level. Although the situation is extremely severe, the situation is much better than 2014. The time that China has strived for in the past few years is very important, and China has successfully avoided it. The most critical situation is that the military reform has been basically completed. The military reform is highly compatible with the mass line. It is a very important part of the mass line. In fact, the core of the mass line in our observation and evaluation is the military reform. What is left is to extend to the financial and cultural anti-corruption substantive breakthroughs. Although these two steps have not been completed yet, under the premise that the military reform is basically completed, and these unfinished two steps will cause some problems or even big problems, overall there is no need to worry too much.

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