2024年12月31日，星期二，第1145期
日本外相访华反省错误国策，与1995年“村山谈话”以及1997年亚洲金融危机有何可比性
【媒体报道】
12月25日，据外交部网站消息，日本外相岩屋毅应邀访问中国。中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅将同岩屋毅外相举行外长会谈并共同出席中日高级别人文交流磋商机制第二次会议。据媒体报道，岩屋毅在访华前接受采访，就历史认识问题表示，日本过去曾实施了错误的国策，不能再重蹈覆辙，要坚持走和平国家道路。
12月30日，阿塞拜疆当局说，莫斯科已承诺找出并惩罚击落阿塞拜疆航空公司飞机的责任人。
12月30日，以色列常驻联合国代表丹尼·达农对也门胡塞武装发出所谓的最后警告，要求其停止对以色列的导弹袭击，称如果该组织继续发动袭击，将面临与哈马斯、真主党和叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德同样的“悲惨命运”。
【讨论纪要】
●在“法办”阿塞拜疆客机事件责任人的问题上，俄方稍有不慎恐将真的沦为“大号的伊朗”
我们首先继续追踪一下阿克套空难事件后续发展。我们注意到12月30日，阿塞拜疆方面“俄方已承诺‘法办’误击航班责任人”的相关表述。
从目前俄方在阿克套空难事件中非常被动的处境来观察，这起空难事件越来越像西方邪恶势力做的一个“局”。手法上很像1983年“大韩民航007航班被苏联击落”事件。除了用“美军入侵格林纳达”映射北约可能军事挑衅、入侵白俄罗斯这种直截了当的威胁外，还有可能在俄罗斯内部催生类似1987年“红场事件”，尤其是2020年“伊朗击落乌克兰客机”事件后产生的“大清洗”。
值得一提的是，包括1983年“大韩民航007航班被苏联击落”事件在内，以及2014年“马航MH-370失联事件”“马航MH-17击落事件”等，我们有理由认为，西方邪恶势力为达到某些不可告人的目的，使用了类似远程遥控、电子欺骗等高技术劫机手段。有媒体报道称，本次阿克套空难中的客机在进入俄罗斯领空后，出现与外界通信隔绝的情况，以至于俄方多次问询后仍无反应，俄防空部队遂按预订防空程序对不明飞行器开火。而之所以俄方如此敏感，就在于近段时间西方对俄罗斯频繁使用“声东击西”的策略，让俄军处于高度戒备状态。根据俄方发布的消息，当时格罗兹尼正遭遇乌克兰无人机攻击，加之多次询问无果，出现误击也就不足为奇了。
阿克套空难造成重大人员伤亡，当然是一起悲剧。但需要提醒俄方注意的是，一定要妥善处理阿塞拜疆方面提出的“追责”要求。俄方应公开整个过程中的所有细节，包括客机可能遭到高技术劫持的证据等，将真相昭告天下。切不可粗糙处理，为了摆脱被动急切的将所谓“责任人”进行“法办”。毕竟这些俄罗斯军人当时正在履行他们的职责。尽管俄方始终将俄乌战争称之为“对乌特别军事行动”，但事实上俄罗斯早已处于战争状态。如果处理不当，恐怕会寒了这些军人的心（从法律看没问题，但从情理看，问题很大！）。往小了说，以后俄罗斯的军人在执行命令的时候会畏首畏尾、无所适从。往大了说，可能导致俄罗斯强力部门和俄罗斯决策层之间关系变得微妙和复杂，甚至心生异心。一旦因此大幅削弱俄罗斯决策层的决策效率，或因此酿成萧墙之祸，俄罗斯恐怕真的会成为“大号的伊朗””。
无论哪种情况，对俄罗斯国家安全和社会稳定而言绝非幸事。更重要的是，如果这些事成功吸引了足够多俄罗斯决策层的注意力，这就让西方在继续对俄罗斯施加“声东击西”的策略上获得进一步操作空间，无论是以此为掩护军事挑衅、入侵白俄罗斯，甚至颠覆卢卡申科政权；还是以军事挑衅、威胁白俄罗斯为掩护军事打击伊朗，甚至颠覆伊朗现政权。总之，对拜登政府而言，在乌克兰方向与中东方向，把局势向进一步升级，甚至全面失控的方向推动就行！甚至不排除其会在“危险系数”最高，战略代价最大的西太方向战略冒险的可能性。一旦因此酿成乌克兰局势、中东局势迅速恶化，威胁到重要国际航线的安全，比如，波斯湾、红海等，国际社会即便从全球经济能否维持基本稳定的角度观察也务必保持高度警惕。
●以色列叫嚣让胡塞武装面临与哈马斯、真主党及叙利亚阿萨德政权同样悲惨命运恐怕力有不逮
12月30日，以色列常驻联合国代表达农叫嚣称，其对也门胡塞武装发出所谓最后警告，称如果该组织继续发动袭击，将面临与哈马斯、真主党和叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德同样的“悲惨命运”。
在叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，“什叶派抵抗之弧”中仍在系统性、大规模、有组织抗击美、以的只有胡塞武装（哈马斯还在零星抵抗，真主党或正在转进叙利亚途中），自然而然，以色列将针对的目标转向了胡塞武装。
我们再次强调，由于也门胡塞武装所在地区易守难攻，扼守曼德海峡，非常靠近红海国际商贸主航线，只要胡塞武装能够坚持下去，很容易获得各方策应和援助（比如：导航、坐标）。甚至有传闻称，美国“杜鲁门”号航空母舰在红海附近活动时，因与也门胡塞武装发生军事冲突导致核泄漏，进而导致周边地区核辐射背景数据异常。所以，在我们看来，以色列想要把这份最后警告变为事实恐怕没那么容易。而在伊朗对外政策至今仍运行在“投降主义”路线且伊朗已出现或发生内乱之苗头（最新消息是，哈梅内伊或引咎辞职）的背景下，胡塞武装在各方支持下，成为什叶派抵抗力量新领袖的可能性越来越大。
12月31日，俄罗斯常驻联合国代表警告称，以色列在也门的行动是蓄意升级局势。值得注意的是，俄罗斯没有就以色列强化对也门胡塞武装的军事打击一事进行回避，而是直截了当指责和警告以色列。有趣的是，在以色列声嘶力竭警告胡塞武装的同时，似乎对俄方的指责和警告“选择性失明”。显然，以色列内心很清楚，目前阶段，自己，尤其是美国着实能力有限。胡塞武装连美国航母都敢打，何况以色列？但以色列实在不甘心的是，唾手可得的“大胜”有可能在拜登正式下台前这20天的时间里，被胡塞武装通过“零敲牛皮糖”的方式敲掉。有消息称，以色列内部因不胜胡塞武装烦扰（隔三岔五的就来一枚超高音速导弹，美以既拦不住，而且还打的特准）再次向内塔尼亚胡政府施加压力，强烈要求内塔尼亚胡政府迅速解决胡塞武装。
●国际社会在对相关国家的政策上，包括经济援助和军事援助层面，一定会根据当前现实情况进行综合判断
12月31日，乌克兰外长瑟比加表示，援助叙利亚的面粉预计31日运抵后，乌克兰将向叙利亚运送更多的食品等援助物资。瑟比加30日还在大马士革会见了叙利亚新的、事实上的领导人艾哈迈德·沙拉，就两国建立战略伙伴关系进一步展开讨论。
有俄罗斯媒体称，他们的总统普京是仁慈者，但在我们看来，这是宋襄公的表现，因为普京没有遵守战争固有的规律。现在的真实情况是，在进行了将近三年的残酷战争后，乌克兰仍有能力对外提供粮食援助，这很奇怪。
更奇怪的是，叙利亚从俄罗斯原来的盟友变为现在敌人的盟友。某种意义上说，乌克兰和叙利亚临时政府在商讨建立战略伙伴关系这件事放在俄罗斯仍一心想要保留叙利亚军事基地的背景下去观察，对普京本人，尤其是俄罗斯而言简直是奇耻大辱，这些都让俄罗斯社会内部酝酿普京也应该引咎辞职的氛围变得愈发浓厚。这是上文我们提醒俄罗斯决策层妥善处理阿克套空难事件及其后续发展的主要原因之一。
综上讨论，无论是“大号的伊朗”——俄罗斯，还是“小号的俄罗斯”——伊朗，在其改弦更张之前，国际社会恐怕很难对其提供实质性战略策应。国际社会在对相关国家的政策上，包括经济援助和军事援助层面，一定会根据当前现实情况进行综合判断。以伊朗为例，类似战略级激光武器，无论从战略互信角度，还是从纯粹的技术条件（比如，能源供应）角度，国际社会都不会轻易向其提供。
●在日本从心往外、自发的、深刻反省历史问题、彻底对二战反人类罪行认罪之前，在是否允许日本成为正常国家的问题上，国际社会不妨从长计议
我们注意到，日本外相岩屋毅访华前在接受采访时，就历史认识问题表示，日本过去曾实施了错误的国策，不能再重蹈覆辙，要坚持走和平国家道路。
岩屋毅的言论让我们有一种似曾相识的感觉。上一次日本政要有类似讲话应该是1995年的“春山讲话”。
在1995年8月15日，第二次世界大战日本宣布无条件投降50周年纪念日，时任日本首相村山富市发表讲话，承认日本过去实行了错误的国策，走了战争道路，并表示要深刻反省历史、吸取历史教训。村山富市说，“正当战后五十周年之际，我们应该铭记在心的是回顾过去，从中汲取历史教训，展望未来，不要走错人类社会发展和平繁荣的道路。我国在不久前的一段时期，国策发生错误，走上了战争的道路，使国民陷入生死存亡的危机，殖民统治和侵略给许多国家，特别是亚洲各国人民带来了巨大的伤害和痛苦。为了避免以后发生错误，毫无疑问，我们应谦虚地接受历史事实，并再次表示深刻的反省和由衷的歉意。同时向在这段历史中受到灾难的所有国内外人士表示沉痛的哀悼。战败后五十周年的今天，我国应该立足对过去的深刻反省，排除自以为是的国家主义，作为负责任的国际社会成员促进国际和谐，推广和平的理念和民主主义。村山富市强调，我对当前“政冷经热”的日中关系感到十分忧虑，希望日本政府能够认真地对待一衣带水的日中两国关系及日本与亚洲各邻国的关系。
在我们看来，1995年，时任日本首相的村山富市之所以发表这番讲话，主要出于对2年后发生的“97亚洲金融危机”的巨大恐惧。而在此之前，日本已因《广场协议》的签署出现了“失去的10年”的经济发展缓慢，甚至停滞的情况。而根据历史资料，“97亚洲金融危机”几乎摧毁了当时日本在东南亚的整个产业布局。
在我们的观察中，日本至少在前首相岸田文雄时期开始，深刻意识到，美帝江河日下，日落西山已成为定数，不可改变。所以，日本急于调整政策。在此之前，以英国前首相苏纳克为例，西方的一些主要国家已经出现准备调整政策的苗头。
所谓日本调整政策的本质是更深度的执行日本前首相安倍晋三的政治遗产，即：最后一次战略投机。但岸田文雄深知，安倍晋三因此而丢掉性命，即便安倍在意识到危险后，以“台湾有事就是日本有事”为说辞，试图“求生”，但无奈美帝要杀鸡儆猴。所以，恐惧于安倍晋三光天化日之下遭遇暗杀的岸田文雄，最终选择放弃日本首相的位置。对于日本现任首相石破茂而言，他当然也知道其中的利害关系，于是在过了一把首相瘾后，也想一走了之。无奈，造化弄人，石破茂还是成为日本第103任首相，而这距离也是由其担任的第102任首相仅隔1个多月有余（石破茂前后共有三次竞选日本首相，两次主动，一次被动。最后一次被强行留在了首相位置之上）。
值得一提的是，这次日本外相（石破茂政府）明目张胆再提“春山谈话”之基调，美帝必然恨之入骨，但却又一时间无可奈何。这个时机恰恰是韩国政坛因尹锡悦弹劾案闹得沸沸扬扬之际。在石破茂政府看来，作为美国全球战略支撑两大支柱之一俄“西太安全框架”之两个“锚点”。韩国这个“锚点”已经严重摇晃了，难不成美国敢在这个时候自己拔掉另一个“锚点”日本？
某种意义上说，丰田跑到中国搞电动车生产合作代表了目前日本政府的真实意图，也就是经济上迫不及待地向中国求生，日本感受到了类似“97年亚洲金融危机”那样的恐惧，在我们看，就是“金融断尾”。当然，国际社会无须对日本动什么恻隐之心，和“春山谈话”一样，日本的反省是建立在对自身经济、金融崩溃的恐惧，在被迫的情况下做出的。所以，在日本从心往外、自发的、深刻反省历史问题、彻底对二战反人类罪行认罪之前，在是否允许日本成为正常国家的问题上，国际社会不妨从长计议。
【相关话题】
第7662期－串讲：特朗普的“购物车”赫然出现加拿大、格陵兰岛、巴拿马运河、日本外相访华等（2024-12-25）
第7674期－东方点评，以色列首次用“萨德”反导系统拦截胡塞武装所发射的弹道导弹（2024-12-30）
第7677期－对照苏联“红场事件”后续发展，密切关注阿塞拜疆总统“俄方应严惩客机失事责任人”之后续发展（2024-12-30）
声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
December 31, 2024, Tuesday, Issue 1145
Japanese Foreign Minister Visits China to Reflect on Erroneous National Policies: Comparability with the 1995 "Murayama Statement" and the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
[Media Reports]
On December 25, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya was invited to visit China. Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, will hold a foreign ministers' meeting with Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and jointly attend the Second Meeting of the China-Japan High-Level People-to-People Exchange Consultation Mechanism. According to media reports, before his visit to China, Takeshi Iwaya stated in an interview regarding historical issues that Japan had implemented erroneous national policies in the past and must not repeat the same mistakes, adhering to the path of a peaceful country.
On December 30, Azerbaijani authorities stated that Moscow had promised to identify and punish those responsible for downing an Azerbaijani Airlines plane.
On December 30, Israel's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Danny Danon issued a so-called final warning to the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, demanding that they cease missile attacks on Israel, stating that if the organization continues to launch attacks, it will face the same "tragic fate" as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
[Discussion Summary]
●Regarding the issue of "prosecuting" those responsible for the Azerbaijani airliner incident, Russia must exercise caution to avoid becoming a "larger version of Iran"
Let's continue to follow up on the developments following the Aktau air disaster. We note the Azerbaijani statement on December 30 that "Russia has promised to 'prosecute' those responsible for mistakenly shooting down the flight."
Observing Russia's extremely passive situation in the Aktau air disaster, this incident increasingly resembles a "setup" orchestrated by Western evil forces. The tactics are similar to the 1983 incident where "Korean Air Flight 007 was shot down by the Soviet Union." In addition to using the "U.S. invasion of Grenada" as a metaphor for possible NATO military provocation and invasion of Belarus, it may also trigger an internal "purge" in Russia similar to the 1987 "Red Square Incident," especially following the 2020 "Iranian downing of a Ukrainian airliner" incident.
It's worth mentioning that, including the 1983 "Korean Air Flight 007" incident, as well as the 2014 "Malaysia Airlines Flight MH-370 disappearance" and "Malaysia Airlines Flight MH-17 shootdown" incidents, we have reason to believe that Western evil forces have employed high-tech hijacking methods such as remote control and electronic deception to achieve some unspeakable goals. Media reports suggest that the passenger plane in the Aktau disaster lost communication with the outside world after entering Russian airspace, and despite repeated inquiries by the Russian side, there was no response, prompting Russian air defense forces to follow predetermined procedures and fire at the unidentified aircraft. The reason for Russia's sensitivity lies in the frequent use of the "diversionary tactic" by the West against Russia recently, keeping the Russian military on high alert. According to Russian reports, Grozny was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time, and coupled with the lack of response to multiple inquiries, the mistaken shooting was not unexpected.
The Aktau air disaster, resulting in significant casualties, is undoubtedly a tragedy. However, it should be noted that Russia must handle Azerbaijan's "accountability" request with caution. Russia should disclose all details of the entire process, including evidence of possible high-tech hijacking of the aircraft, to reveal the truth to the world. It must not handle it roughly and hastily "prosecute" the so-called "responsible individuals" to escape its passive position. After all, these Russian soldiers were performing their duties at the time. Although Russia has consistently referred to the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a "special military operation in Ukraine," in reality, Russia has been in a state of war. If handled improperly, it may discourage these soldiers (legally, there is no issue, but morally, there are significant concerns!). At the very least, Russian soldiers may become hesitant and unsure when executing orders in the future. At worst, it could lead to a subtle and complex relationship between the Russian security forces and decision-makers, even breeding dissent. If this significantly weakens the decision-making efficiency of Russian decision-makers or leads to internal strife, Russia may indeed become a "larger version of Iran."
In any case, this is not a positive development for Russia's national security and social stability. More importantly, if these events successfully capture the attention of Russian decision-makers, it will provide Western forces with further room to continue implementing the "diversionary tactic" against Russia, whether it's using this as a cover for military provocation, invading Belarus, or even overthrowing the Lukashenko regime; or using military provocation and threatening Belarus as a cover for military strikes against Iran, or even overthrowing the current Iranian regime. In short, for the Biden administration, escalating the situation in the Ukraine direction and the Middle East direction, or even pushing it towards full失控 (out of control), would suffice. It cannot be ruled out that they may even take strategic risks in the Western Pacific direction, where the "danger coefficient" is the highest and the strategic cost is the greatest. If this leads to a rapid deterioration of the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, threatening the safety of important international air routes, such as the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, the international community must remain highly vigilant, even from the perspective of maintaining basic stability in the global economy.
● Israel's Threat to Houthi Militants of Sharing the Same Fate as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad Regime in Syria Likely Unrealistic
On December 30th, Israel's permanent representative to the United Nations, Danon, issued what he called a final warning to the Houthi militants in Yemen, stating that if the group continued to launch attacks, they would face the same "tragic fate" as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
After the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, the Houthi militants remain the only systematic, large-scale, and organized resistance against the US and Israel within the "Shiite Axis of Resistance" (with Hamas still offering sporadic resistance and Hezbollah possibly shifting its focus to Syria). Naturally, Israel has turned its attention to targeting the Houthi militants.
We emphasize again that due to the Houthi militants' strategic position in Yemen, which is easy to defend and difficult to attack, controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and being very close to the international trade route in the Red Sea, as long as the Houthi militants can hold on, they are likely to receive support and assistance from various parties (such as navigation and coordinates). There are even rumors that the US aircraft carrier "USS Harry S. Truman" suffered a nuclear leak during activities near the Red Sea due to military conflicts with the Houthi militants, leading to abnormal background radiation data in the surrounding areas. Therefore, in our view, it will not be easy for Israel to turn this final warning into reality. Moreover, given Iran's foreign policy still following a "capitulationist" approach and the emergence of signs of internal unrest in Iran (with the latest news suggesting that Khamenei may resign), the Houthi militants, with support from various parties, are increasingly likely to become the new leader of the Shiite resistance.
On December 31st, Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations warned that Israel's actions in Yemen were deliberately escalating the situation. It is worth noting that Russia did not avoid the issue of Israel's intensified military strikes against the Houthi militants in Yemen but directly condemned and warned Israel. Interestingly, while Israel was vehemently warning the Houthi militants, it seemed to be "selectively blind" to Russia's accusations and warnings. Clearly, Israel is well aware that, at this stage, both itself and the US have limited capabilities. The Houthi militants dare to attack US aircraft carriers, let alone Israel. However, what Israel truly不甘心 (reluctant to accept) is the possibility of losing a potential "victory" in the 20 days before Biden officially steps down, as the Houthi militants gradually erode their strength through "death by a thousand cuts". Reports suggest that internal pressure is mounting on the Netanyahu government in Israel, frustrated by the Houthi militants' periodic launches of hypersonic missiles that the US and Israel cannot intercept and are remarkably accurate, urging the government to swiftly address the Houthi threat.
● The International Community Will Make Comprehensive Judgments on Policies Towards Relevant Countries, Including Economic and Military Aid, Based on Current Realities
On December 31st, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba stated that the flour aid for Syria was expected to arrive on the 31st, and Ukraine would send more food and other aid supplies to Syria. On the 30th, Kuleba also met with Syria's new de facto leader, Ahmed Salah, in Damascus to further discuss establishing a strategic partnership between the two countries.
Some Russian media outlets have described their president, Putin, as a benevolent leader. However, in our view, this is reminiscent of Song Xianggong's behavior, as Putin has not adhered to the inherent laws of war. The reality is that after nearly three years of brutal war, Ukraine still has the capacity to provide food aid to other countries, which is quite unusual.
What's even more surprising is that Syria has shifted from being Russia's ally to becoming an ally of Russia's enemy. In a sense, the discussion between Ukraine and Syria's interim government on establishing a strategic partnership, while Russia still intends to maintain its military base in Syria, is a humiliation to Putin and Russia. This has contributed to a growing sentiment within Russian society that Putin should also resign. This is one of the main reasons we previously advised the Russian decision-makers to handle the Aktau plane crash and its aftermath properly.
In summary, whether it's "a larger version of Iran" – Russia, or "a smaller version of Russia" – Iran, the international community is unlikely to provide substantial strategic support until they change their course. The international community will make comprehensive judgments on policies towards relevant countries, including economic and military aid, based on current realities. Taking Iran as an example, strategic laser weapons, whether from the perspective of strategic trust or purely technical conditions (such as energy supply), will not be easily provided to Iran by the international community.
●Before Japan reflects deeply on historical issues from the heart, spontaneously, and thoroughly acknowledges its World War II crimes against humanity, the international community may wish to take a long-term view on whether to allow Japan to become a normal country.
We have noticed that before his visit to China, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya expressed in an interview regarding historical understanding that Japan had pursued incorrect national policies in the past and must not repeat the same mistakes, adhering to the path of a peaceful nation.
Takeshi Iwaya's remarks give us a sense of déjà vu. The last time a Japanese politician made similar statements was probably the "Murayama Statement" in 1995.
On August 15, 1995, the 50th anniversary of Japan's announcement of unconditional surrender in World War II, then-Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama delivered a speech acknowledging that Japan had pursued incorrect national policies and embarked on the path of war, expressing a deep reflection on history and a commitment to learning from historical lessons. Murayama said, "As we mark the 50th anniversary after the war, we should bear in mind that we must look back, learn from historical lessons, look forward, and not stray from the path of peace and prosperity in human society's development. In a recent period, our country pursued incorrect national policies and embarked on the path of war, putting our people in a crisis of survival, and colonial rule and aggression brought immense harm and suffering to many countries, especially the people of Asian nations. To avoid future mistakes, there is no doubt that we should humbly accept historical facts and once again express deep reflection and sincere apologies. At the same time, we express our profound condolences to all those who suffered during this period, both domestically and internationally. Fifty years after our defeat, our country should, based on deep reflection on the past, reject selfish nationalism, promote international harmony as a responsible member of the international community, and disseminate the ideals of peace and democracy. Murayama emphasized that he was deeply concerned about the current "political chill and economic warmth" in Sino-Japanese relations and hoped that the Japanese government would seriously consider the relationship between Japan and China, which are separated only by a strip of water, as well as Japan's relations with its Asian neighbors.
In our view, in 1995, then-Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama delivered this speech mainly out of great fear of the "1997 Asian Financial Crisis" that would occur two years later. Prior to this, Japan had already experienced a "lost decade" of slow, even stagnant economic development due to the signing of the Plaza Accord. And according to historical records, the "1997 Asian Financial Crisis" nearly destroyed Japan's entire industrial layout in Southeast Asia at that time.
In our observation, at least since the time of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan has profoundly realized that the decline of the American empire is inevitable and unchangeable. Therefore, Japan is eager to adjust its policies. Before this, some major Western countries, exemplified by former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, had already shown signs of preparing to adjust their policies.
The essence of Japan's policy adjustment is to more deeply implement the political legacy of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, namely: the last strategic gamble. However, Fumio Kishida was well aware that Shinzo Abe lost his life because of this, even though Abe tried to "seek survival" by using the rhetoric that "if there is trouble in Taiwan, there will be trouble in Japan" after realizing the danger. But unfortunately, the US wanted to make an example of him. Therefore, Fumio Kishida, who feared the daylight assassination of Shinzo Abe, ultimately chose to give up his position as Prime Minister of Japan. As for the current Prime Minister of Japan, Ishiba Shigeru, he is certainly aware of the stakes involved. After getting a taste of being prime minister, he also wanted to leave. Unfortunately, fate had other plans, and Ishiba Shigeru became the 103rd Prime Minister of Japan, just over a month after serving as the 102nd (Ishiba Shigeru has run for Prime Minister of Japan three times, twice voluntarily and once involuntarily. He was forced to stay in the position of prime minister during his last attempt).
It is worth mentioning that this time, the Japanese Foreign Minister (under the Ishiba Shigeru administration) blatantly revived the tone of the "Murayama Statement," which undoubtedly infuriates the US, yet they are powerless to do anything about it for the moment. This opportunity coincides with the uproar in South Korean politics due to the impeachment case against Yoon Seok-youl. In the view of the Ishiba Shigeru administration, as one of the two "anchors" of the US "West Pacific Security Framework," which is a pillar of America's global strategy, South Korea, this "anchor," is severely shaking. Could the US dare to remove the other "anchor," Japan, at this time?
In a sense, Toyota's collaboration with China on electric vehicle production represents the true intentions of the current Japanese government, which is eagerly seeking survival economically from China. Japan feels a fear similar to that of the "1997 Asian Financial Crisis," which we see as "financial tail-cutting." Of course, the international community need not have any pity on Japan. Like the "Murayama Statement," Japan's reflection is based on fear of its own economic and financial collapse and is made under duress. Therefore, before Japan reflects deeply on historical issues from the heart, spontaneously, and thoroughly acknowledges its World War II crimes against humanity, the international community may wish to take a long-term view on whether to allow Japan to become a normal country.
[Related Topics]
Episode 7662 - Recap: Trump's "Shopping Cart" Notably Includes Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal, and a Visit by Japan's Foreign Minister to China (December 25, 2024)
Episode 7674 - Oriental Commentary: Israel Uses the "THAAD" Missile Defense System for the First Time to Intercept a Ballistic Missile Launched by the Houthis (December 30, 2024)
Episode 7677 - Comparing the Subsequent Developments of the Soviet "Red Square Incident," Closely Monitor the Subsequent Developments of the Azerbaijani President's Statement that "Russia Should Severely Punish Those Responsible for the Airliner Crash" (December 30, 2024)
Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.
|
