为什么说朝鲜及时针对“布林肯访韩”试射新型高超音速中远程弹道导弹意义重大？

【媒体报道】

1月6日，正在韩国访问的美国国务卿布林肯表示，美方掌握的情报显示，俄方具有向朝方传授高端太空及卫星技术的意图。

1月7日，朝鲜导弹总局宣布在当地时间1月6日成功地进行一次新型高超音速中远程弹道导弹试射。这枚导弹从朝鲜平壤市郊区武器发射场往东北方向发射，从弹道导弹分离出的高超音速滑翔飞行战斗部沿着预定飞行轨道以12倍音速在大气层边缘飞行，实施了两次跳跃，第一次上升的顶点摸到了卡门线，高度达到99.8公里，第二次上升的顶点高度达42.5公里（而上次试射的第二顶点是72公里），最后高超弹头准确命中1500公里之外的日本海的假想目标。

【讨论纪要】

●国际社会通过朝鲜试射导弹，首先是冲着拜登政府去的，其次是冲着拜登政府背后所谓的“另外一个体系”去的

1月6日，美国国务卿布林肯访问韩国。

布林肯故意营造“美国或被迫与中国进行‘交易’”之氛围，一方面是对中国示弱，另一方面又以此讹诈中国之外的方方面面，暗示如果各方不听美国号令，不排除美国也“投八路”的可能性。此外，布林肯到访韩国，也强化了欲用美国一手操纵下的韩国政局乱象之后续发展威胁中国——只要美国通过操纵韩国司法体系否决对尹锡悦的弹劾，尹锡悦就会立刻“官复原职”。由于尹锡悦已没有任何退路可言，只有听从美国当局的安排。所谓“安排”，包括但不局限于，有可能在朝鲜半岛挑起事端，甚至有可能掉头瞄准日本，基于韩日领土之争，引发两国之间爆发军事冲突。

1月6日，布林肯在访问韩国的时候表示，俄方具有向朝方传授高端太空及卫星技术的意图。有趣的是，就在当天，朝鲜试射新型高超音速中远程弹道导弹。

这枚导弹从朝鲜平壤市郊区武器发射场往东北方向发射，从弹道导弹分离出的高超音速滑翔飞行战斗部沿着预定飞行轨道以12倍音速在大气层边缘飞行，实施了两次跳跃，第一次上升的顶点摸到了卡门线，高度达到99.8公里，第二次上升的顶点高度达42.5公里（而上次试射的第二顶点是72公里），最后高超弹头准确命中1500公里之外的日本海的假想目标。

布林肯所谓“俄罗斯向朝鲜提供高端太空技术的意图”，在表面看，自然是对俄罗斯的警告，并试图阻止俄朝合作。在我们看来，由于俄罗斯与朝鲜全面战略伙伴关系条约，且该条约第四条规定，如果一方受到某一国或数国武力攻击，并处于战争状态，另一方将立即以一切可用手段向前者提供军事和其他援助，类似“俄罗斯向朝鲜提供高端太空技术”本就在双方可能的合作范畴之内，布林肯“明知故问”，显然是在强调美国对俄朝合作非常在意，且俄朝合作严重损害了美国的利益，一旦有事发生，俄朝应负全责。

但问题在于，从朝鲜试射导弹的细节披露不难看出，其带有典型“水漂弹”特征，放眼世界，除了中国之外，谁还有此种技术？对此，布林肯难道不知？如果布林肯知道，又为什么只提“俄罗斯向朝鲜提供高端太空技术”而绝口不提中国？在我们看来，恐怕布林肯不敢提！

可以说，朝鲜这次试射的导弹，美国的“萨德”系统无法拦截，从相关数据推算，其射程完全可以覆盖关岛。但美国人不要忘了，朝鲜还有打得更远的“火星炮-18”洲际弹道导弹，其射程估计至少在1万公里，如果把其与这次的“水漂弹”相结合，恐怕威胁到美国本土不在话下。而朝鲜是一个有核国家，且早已实现核武器小型化，这意味着这种组合完全可能是核常兼备！所以，朝鲜试射导弹的背后，结合中国填黄岩岛的传闻一并观察，显然国际社会对西方邪恶势力的强烈警告——如果敢在朝鲜半岛挑事儿，小心吃不了兜着走！

值得一提的是，关于“在朝鲜半岛挑事儿”的，就算拜登政府真敢玩，恐怕还要过美军这一关。也就是说，“在朝鲜半岛挑事儿”的命令，拜登政府未必能执行下去。

2021年1月6日，在美国国会山骚乱事件中，大量特朗普支持者，其中包括一些被认为持有极右翼观点的人冲击了国会大厦。时任参谋长联席会议主席的马克·米利上将就采取了一些行动，例如与其他国家军方领导人沟通（包括中国，因此，特朗普痛斥米利“叛国”），以确保美国核武器的安全控制。由此可见，在美国政府之外，还有另外一个体系对战略风险进行实际控制。某种意义上说，时任参谋长联席会议主席的马克·米利的优先级要高于美国三军统帅，总统拜登。

需要补充的是，拜登政府的“疯狂计划”可以扩展到东北亚，甚至整个西太方向，包括台湾问题和南海问题。此外，再次强调，即便如此，即便基于特朗普当年国会山事件之历史事实，美国选择孤注一掷和妥协投降比例仍然是五五开。美军是西方资本利益的核心资产，只是美国“内讧”严重导致美军无法被有效调动。千万不要有任何幻想，将希望寄托在对方身上，比如，美军或特朗普和“特朗普们”，一定要立足自己，也就是做最坏准备以争取最好局面。只有这样迫使西方资本利益内部的大多数不敢冒险，这也是朝鲜当天对布林肯访韩一个下马威的核心意图，你敢做初一，我就做十五；你敢掀桌子，我就和你彻底翻脸。

拜登政府的一切所作所为用两个字形容就是讹诈！在美国内部，对即将上台的特朗普进行讹诈；在美国外部，对国际社会进行讹诈。且这种讹诈，无论出于主观因素，还是客观因素，一定程度上带有“前一秒选择战略冒险；后一秒选择妥协认怂”的特征。一旦讹诈成功，绝对一本万利！所以，国际社会通过朝鲜试射导弹，首先是冲着拜登政府去的，其次是冲着拜登政府背后所谓的“另外一个体系”去的——管住拜登政府，否则后果极其严重！所谓“后果极其严重”的核心就在于，必要时刻，国际社会完全可以舍弃“河渡人”的局面！

●不排除韩国在其国内强烈张力的反弹下，变为“第二个日本”的可能性

通过上一节的讨论，我们不难看出，拜登之流，一方面色厉内荏，另一方面又极度自私自利，以至于美国国家长远利益早已被其抛之脑后。

1月6日，日本首相石破茂6日警告说，美国总统乔·拜登决定阻止日本制铁公司以141亿美元收购美国钢铁公司后，两国的双边贸易可能受到影响。

某种意义上说，日本是布林肯本次访韩背后意图之受害者。所谓“布林肯本次访韩背后意图之受害者”的意思就在于，在拜登政府极度自私自利的疯狂计划中，日本要么因朝鲜半岛生战生乱而被迫卷入，要么直接和韩国爆发军事冲突。

话说回来，如果在特朗普正式上位前，也就是1月20日之前，拜登政府或出于主观因素，或出于被动因素，没有下出韩国政局乱象后续发展中关键的那步棋，也就是朝鲜半岛既没有出现战乱，日本和韩国也都相安无事，则不排除韩国在其国内强烈张力的反弹下，变为“第二个日本”的可能性。一旦如此，对美国“西太安全框架”的稳定而言，绝非幸事！

显然，这对美国国家长远利益是有巨大损害的。可以说，韩国政府未来的这种可能政治走向，与现在的日本政府公开敢对美国说“不”，都是拜登政府出于极度自私自利之目的，一手搅乱叙利亚局势之后续发展对美国国家利益产生的巨大副作用之一。

●无论是“斗地主”，还是“一桌麻将”，亦或是“一桌超级麻将”，对美国中东政策都是灾难性的

拜登政府损害美国国家长远利益的具体表现更体现在叙利亚局势后续发展之中，尤其是在欧盟（老欧洲）急火火介入叙利亚局势的背景下去观察显得尤为明显。

我们注意到，1月6日，法国总统马克龙在向法国驻各国大使发表年度讲话时宣布，新任法国总理贝鲁将访问中国。值得一提的是，在马克龙发表讲话的同一天，中国新任驻法大使邓励抵法履新。

在2023年4月那次访问前，也有法国内阁成员为马克龙访华打前站。有媒体报道说，这次法国总统马克龙访华是为了推销法国的葡萄酒。在我们看来，法国的葡萄酒的确不错，但显然这次马克龙访华是“醉翁之意不在酒”，而在乌克兰问题，在叙利亚问题（中东问题）上。在我们的观察中，叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，某种意义上说，这两个问题已经成为“一枚硬币的两面”。

1月6日，土耳其支持的“叙利亚国民军”与叙库尔德武装主导的“叙利亚民主力量”在阿勒颇以东的曼比季乡村爆发冲突。值得一提的是，在叙利亚过渡政府于当地时间2024年12月24日宣布，叙利亚国内各武装派别将解散并编入新政府军之后，获美国支持的叙利亚库尔德武装没有参加谈判，而是继续与土耳其支持的武装激战不断。

在这个背景下我们再来看一条新闻报道：1月6日，美国宣布放宽对叙利亚的部分制裁。

对此，我们不禁要问，美国所谓“放宽对叙利亚的部分制裁”具体指的是什么？是否针对叙利亚全国？针对库尔德人势力或其他什么势力？或者是这种放宽制裁是有条件的，比如，叙利亚过渡政府需要满足美国的什么条件。看样子，就算是一手造成叙利亚如此复杂混乱、而且还有两周左右时间就要下台的拜登政府，对目前的局势也感到棘手，比如，土耳其支持的叙利亚武装派别与库尔德人武装大打出手。而更让拜登政府挠头的是，叙利亚局势后续发展是否会影响到以色列。而实际情况是，在欧盟（老欧洲）迅速介入叙利亚局势后续发展的过程中，欧盟（老欧洲）的政治影响力已经触及以色列了，比如，马克龙对以军近日于加沙地带的暴行进行谴责。

讨论到这里，大家不难看出，叙利亚局势发展至此，对拜登政府而言似乎充满了讽刺意味：尽管极度自私自利的拜登政府通过颠覆阿萨德政权、搅乱叙利亚局势，利用叙利亚局势的最新变化，包括欧盟、土耳其的介入，一定程度上达到了间接施压以色列，促其放弃“大胜”而去被迫谋求“小胜”、恶化以色列与伊朗之双边关系、将局面向可能将美军“拖下水”的方向推动，进而基于美国内部围绕本次总统大选之恶斗不断对特朗普和“特朗普们”施压，以求最大限度为博取一己私利积累更大优势，但叙利亚局势的后续发展似乎在“脱稿运行”：

第一，一心想要获取摆脱美国控制之中东能源管线，急匆匆在土耳其的公开邀请下介入叙利亚局势后续发展的欧盟（老欧洲），正在与众多中东国家，包括以色列的对头冤家们搞好关系；

第二，不排除出现欧盟、土耳其支持黎巴嫩政府军与以色列为敌的局面之可能性，甚至黎巴嫩政府军会成为以色列的强敌，比黎巴嫩真主党有过而无不及！

第三，不排除欧盟将伊朗，尤其是俄罗斯拉入叙利亚局势后续发展以制约西方乌克兰政策，尤其是美国乌克兰政策的可能性。欧盟完全可以将自己描述为，在叙利亚问题上不是美国的朋友，在乌克兰问题上不是俄罗斯的朋友。或也可以将自己描述为，在叙利亚问题上不是美国的敌人，在乌克兰问题上不是俄罗斯的敌人。至于到底是美国的朋友还是敌人，首先就看美国在叙利亚问题上，在乌克兰问题上如何考虑（对欧盟，尤其是“老欧洲”让渡利益）了；

第四，俄罗斯也可以借助欧盟（老欧洲）基于叙利亚局势后续发展至心思活泛，一定程度上用叙利亚局势平衡西方的乌克兰政策，尤其是美国的乌克兰政策；

第五，某种意义上，围绕叙利亚局势后续发展，美国，欧盟和俄罗斯在中东问题上，在乌克兰问题上都促成了“斗地主”的局面。如果加上土耳其或周边的中东国家就是“一桌麻将”。如果考虑到中国当前的综合实力以及世界上无处不在的影响力，那就是“一桌超级麻将”；

第六，在以上五点的基础上，就算特朗普能顺利接班，恐怕很难善终！且围绕叙利亚局势后续发展演进的中东局势，再次透出了“第四轮排列组合”的味道。

值得一提的是，以土耳其为例，当年我们首次提及“排列组合”概念的时候，即便在“第四轮排列组合”开启之际，其虽为“中东四个地方王国家”，但角色仍然是“棋子”，但现在，恐怕土耳其已经不再是“棋子”了，至少是“半个棋手”。

唯一损失比较大的就是伊朗。伊朗想要与西方（欧洲）和解，但对方未必这样想。但伊朗毕竟仍然是“中东四个地方王国家”，其对于叙利亚局势的后续发展一定不甘寂寞。但有一点可以肯定，如此混乱复杂的叙利亚局势，先发治于人，而后发制人！在这个问题上，类似乌克兰问题，先介入者恐怕在最后玩到筋疲力尽之际还是要找一个“局外人”来“评评理”，也许这就是国际社会等待的机会。

●如果胡塞武装继续跟随妥协的伊朗走下去，其生存空间被压缩将是必然

值得一提的是，西方此前一直利用中东地区的各种不团结因素控制该地区。这一手也体现在西方一直利用台湾问题捆住日本，利用日本控制西太地区上。这就是“离岸制衡”战略。

其核心就在于利用地区国家、民族，宗教矛盾制造混乱，制造对立，进而拉一批国家去平衡另一批国家，进而实现对该地区的“远程控制”。

在我们的观察中，伊朗这个国家的确有其自身的优势，比如，在中东地区属于人口众多的国家，地缘政治优势明显，能源矿产丰富，制造业门类较为齐全，地理位置优越等等，所以，伊朗内心深处始终有一种替换沙特，希望西方找伊朗合作制衡沙特的想法。甚至伊朗存在幻想取代沙特、以色列，充当西方在中东“经济钢钉+军事钢钉”的小心思（伊朗内部的部分人）。在我们看来，这些幻想符合伊朗“小心思颇多，但缺乏大战略考量”的特征，类似这种逆潮流而动的想法，如果不趁早抛弃，恐怕只有死路一条。

说起伊朗，不得不提一句目前已分崩离析的“什叶派抵抗之弧”，尤其是胡塞武装。在我们看来，如果胡塞武装最后不能为国际社会所用，继续跟随妥协的伊朗走下去，其存在的空间就被压缩了。

随着伊朗影响力的走弱，甚至被国际社会抛弃，胡塞武装要么跟着阿盟走，要么可能被沙特联合其他力量灭掉。否则，沙特不会急于针对你，就会有人在胡塞武装和沙特之间斡旋。对此，希望胡塞武装在以叙利亚局势后续发展为代表的中东局势的具体演进中，要深刻认识到国际政治博弈的残酷性。即便是西方资本利益，其全球战略也很可能在本轮中东之乱中彻底死掉。

【相关话题】

第7647期－透过简单回顾“地中海计划”，小谈为什么欧盟如此积极地介入叙利亚局势的后续发展（2024-12-22）
第7648期－在未来不到30天，方方面面，尤其是俄伊两国，千万不要低估为博取一己私利四处煽风点火、几近疯狂的拜登与“拜登们”的巨大破坏力（2024-12-22）
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声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Why is North Korea's timely test-launch of a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile in response to "Blinken's visit to South Korea" significant?

[Media Report]

On January 6, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was visiting South Korea, stated that U.S. intelligence indicated that Russia had the intention of transferring advanced space and satellite technology to North Korea.

On January 7, North Korea's Missile General Bureau announced that it had successfully conducted a test-launch of a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile on January 6, local time. The missile was launched from a weapons launch site on the outskirts of Pyongyang, North Korea, in the northeast direction. The hypersonic glide vehicle separated from the ballistic missile flew along the predetermined flight trajectory at 12 times the speed of sound at the edge of the atmosphere, performing two jumps. The first jump reached the Karman line at a height of 99.8 kilometers, and the second jump peaked at 42.5 kilometers (compared to 72 kilometers during the previous test launch). Finally, the hypersonic warhead accurately hit a simulated target in the Sea of Japan, 1,500 kilometers away.

[Discussion Summary]

● The international community's response to North Korea's missile launch is primarily directed at the Biden administration and secondly at the so-called "other system" behind the Biden administration.

On January 6, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Korea.

Blinken deliberately created an atmosphere that "the United States might be forced to make a 'deal' with China," which was both a show of weakness towards China and a form of blackmail against all parties other than China, implying that if they did not follow America's orders, the United States might "join the eighth route" (a metaphor for switching sides). Furthermore, Blinken's visit to South Korea reinforced the threat to China through the potential chaotic development of South Korea's political situation, which is manipulated by the United States. As long as the U.S. manipulates the South Korean judicial system to reject the impeachment of Yoon Seok-youl, Yoon will immediately "return to his original position." With no other options, Yoon Seok-youl will have no choice but to follow the instructions of the U.S. authorities. These "instructions" may include, but are not limited to, potentially provoking incidents on the Korean Peninsula or even targeting Japan, based on territorial disputes between South Korea and Japan, triggering military conflicts between the two countries.

On January 6, during his visit to South Korea, Blinken stated that Russia had the intention of providing advanced space technology to North Korea. Interestingly, on the same day, North Korea test-launched a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile.

The missile was launched from a weapons launch site on the outskirts of Pyongyang, North Korea, in the northeast direction. The hypersonic glide vehicle separated from the ballistic missile flew along the predetermined flight trajectory at 12 times the speed of sound at the edge of the atmosphere, performing two jumps. The first jump reached the Karman line at a height of 99.8 kilometers, and the second jump peaked at 42.5 kilometers. Finally, the hypersonic warhead accurately hit a simulated target in the Sea of Japan, 1,500 kilometers away.

Blinken's claim about "Russia's intention to provide advanced space technology to North Korea" is ostensibly a warning to Russia and an attempt to prevent cooperation between Russia and North Korea. In our view, given the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Russia and North Korea, which stipulates in Article 4 that if one party is attacked by the armed forces of one or more states and is in a state of war, the other party will immediately provide military and other assistance to the former by all available means, cooperation such as "Russia providing advanced space technology to North Korea" is already within the scope of possible cooperation between the two parties. Blinken's "deliberate mention" clearly emphasizes that the United States is very concerned about Russia-North Korea cooperation, and that such cooperation seriously harms U.S. interests. Should anything happen, Russia and North Korea should bear full responsibility.

However, the issue is that it is not difficult to see from the details disclosed about North Korea's missile launch that it exhibits typical characteristics of a "skip-glide" missile. Looking at the world, who else has such technology besides China? Does Blinken not know this? If Blinken knows, why does he only mention "Russia providing advanced space technology to North Korea" and never mention China? In our opinion, perhaps Blinken dare not mention it!

It can be said that the missile test-launched by North Korea cannot be intercepted by the U.S. THAAD system, and based on the relevant data, its range can fully cover Guam. But Americans should not forget that North Korea also has the "Hwasong-18" intercontinental ballistic missile, which has an estimated range of at least 10,000 kilometers. If combined with this "skip-glide" missile, it is likely that it can threaten the U.S. mainland. Moreover, North Korea is a nuclear-weapon state and has long achieved the miniaturization of nuclear weapons, which means that this combination could very well be nuclear and conventional capable! Therefore, behind North Korea's missile launch, when observed together with the rumors of China's land reclamation on Huangyan Island, it is clearly a strong warning from the international community to the Western evil forces – if you dare to cause trouble on the Korean Peninsula, beware of the consequences!

It is worth mentioning that regarding "causing trouble on the Korean Peninsula," even if the Biden administration dares to do it, it may still need to go through the U.S. military. That is to say, the Biden administration may not be able to carry out the order to "cause trouble on the Korean Peninsula."

On January 6, 2021, during the Capitol Hill riot, a large number of Trump supporters, including some who were considered to hold far-right views, stormed the Capitol building. At that time, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley took some actions, such as communicating with military leaders of other countries (including China, which is why Trump denounced Milley as a "traitor"), to ensure the secure control of U.S. nuclear weapons. This shows that there is another system outside the U.S. government that exercises actual control over strategic risks. In a sense, the priority of Mark Milley, the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was higher than that of President Biden, the commander-in-chief of the U.S. military.

It should be added that the Biden administration's "crazy plan" can extend to Northeast Asia and even the entire Western Pacific direction, including the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea issue. Furthermore, it should be emphasized again that even based on the historical fact of the Capitol Hill incident during Trump's term, the probability of the United States choosing to go all in or compromise and surrender is still 50-50. The U.S. military is the core asset of Western capital interests, but severe "internal strife" in the United States prevents the effective deployment of the U.S. military. Do not have any illusions or pin hopes on others, such as the U.S. military or Trump and "Trumps." We must rely on ourselves, which means preparing for the worst to strive for the best outcome. Only in this way can we force the majority within Western capital interests to dare not take risks. This is also the core intention of North Korea's warning to Blinken's visit to South Korea – if you dare to take the first step, I will take the second; if you dare to overturn the table, I will completely break with you.

Everything the Biden administration does can be described in two words: blackmail! Within the United States, it blackmails the upcoming Trump; outside the United States, it blackmails the international community. And this blackmail, whether due to subjective or objective factors, to some extent, carries the characteristic of "choosing strategic adventurism one second and compromising the next." Once the blackmail succeeds, it is absolutely profitable! Therefore, the international community's response to North Korea's missile launch is primarily directed at the Biden administration and secondly at the so-called "other system" behind the Biden administration – keep the Biden administration in check, otherwise, the consequences will be extremely severe! The core of the "extremely severe consequences" lies in the fact that, if necessary, the international community can completely abandon the situation where "both sides are irreconcilable."

● The possibility cannot be ruled out that South Korea, under the rebound of strong domestic tensions, could become a "second Japan."

From the discussion in the previous section, it is not difficult to see that figures like Biden are on one hand blustering but cowardly, and on the other hand, extremely selfish, to the extent that they have long abandoned the long-term interests of the United States.

On January 6, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru warned that bilateral trade between Japan and the United States could be affected after U.S. President Joe Biden decided to block Nippon Steel Corporation's $14.1 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel Corporation.

In a sense, Japan is a victim of the underlying intentions behind Blinken's visit to South Korea. The so-called "victim of the underlying intentions behind Blinken's visit to South Korea" means that in the Biden administration's frantic and extremely selfish plan, Japan could either be forced to become involved due to war or chaos on the Korean Peninsula, or directly engage in military conflict with South Korea.

That said, if before Trump officially takes office on January 20, the Biden administration, whether due to subjective or passive factors, does not make the crucial move in the subsequent development of the chaotic political situation in South Korea, meaning that neither war nor chaos erupts on the Korean Peninsula, and both Japan and South Korea remain at peace, the possibility cannot be ruled out that South Korea, under the rebound of strong domestic tensions, could become a "second Japan." If this happens, it would by no means be a good thing for the stability of the U.S. "West Pacific Security Framework"!

Obviously, this would cause significant damage to the long-term interests of the United States. It can be said that this possible political trajectory of the South Korean government in the future, along with the current Japanese government's public willingness to say "no" to the United States, are both major side effects on U.S. national interests resulting from the Biden administration's extremely selfish actions in stirring up the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria.

● Whether it's "playing poker," "a table of mahjong," or "a table of super mahjong," it's disastrous for U.S. Middle East policy.

The specific manifestations of the Biden administration's damage to the long-term interests of the United States are even more evident in the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria, especially when observed against the backdrop of the European Union (old Europe) hastily intervening in the Syrian situation.

We note that on January 6, French President Macron announced in his annual speech to French ambassadors stationed in various countries that the new French Prime Minister Bérou would visit China. It's worth mentioning that on the same day Macron delivered his speech, China's new ambassador to France, Deng Li, arrived in France to take up his post.

Before his visit in April 2023, there were also members of the French cabinet who paved the way for Macron's visit to China. Some media reported that Macron's visit to China this time was to promote French wine. In our view, French wine is indeed excellent, but it is clear that Macron's visit to China this time is a "drunken man's intention is not in the wine" but rather in the issues of Ukraine and Syria (the Middle East). In our observation, after the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown, these two issues have, in a sense, become "two sides of the same coin."

On January 6, clashes erupted in the countryside of Manbij, east of Aleppo, between the "Syrian National Army" supported by Turkey and the "Syrian Democratic Forces" led by Kurdish militants. It's worth noting that after the Syrian Transitional Government announced on December 24, 2024, that various armed factions in Syria would disband and be integrated into the new government army, the U.S.-supported Syrian Kurdish militants did not participate in the negotiations and continued to engage in intense fighting with the armed factions supported by Turkey.

Against this backdrop, let's look at a news report: On January 6, the United States announced a partial easing of sanctions on Syria.

In response, we cannot help but ask, what does the U.S. so-called "partial easing of sanctions on Syria" specifically refer to? Does it apply to all of Syria? Is it targeted at Kurdish forces or some other forces? Or is this easing of sanctions conditional, for example, what conditions does the Syrian Transitional Government need to meet? It seems that even the Biden administration, which is just two weeks away from stepping down and is largely responsible for the complex and chaotic situation in Syria, finds the current situation tricky, such as the armed clashes between the Syrian factions supported by Turkey and Kurdish militants. What's more troubling for the Biden administration is whether the subsequent developments in Syria will affect Israel. The reality is that in the process of the EU (old Europe) rapidly intervening in the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria, the political influence of the EU (old Europe) has already reached Israel, for example, Macron condemning the recent atrocities committed by the Israeli military in the Gaza Strip.

From this discussion, it is not difficult to see that the development of the situation in Syria seems ironic to the Biden administration: Although the extremely selfish Biden administration, by overthrowing the Assad regime and stirring up the situation in Syria, has to some extent indirectly pressured Israel using the latest changes in the Syrian situation, including the intervention of the EU and Turkey, prompting Israel to abandon a "big victory" and seek a "small victory," worsening bilateral relations between Israel and Iran, pushing the situation in a direction that may "drag" U.S. troops into the water, and further exerting pressure on Trump and "the Trumps" based on the intense internal battles surrounding this presidential election in the United States, in order to gain a greater advantage for their own selfish interests, the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria seem to be "running off script":

First, the EU (old Europe), eager to secure Middle Eastern energy pipelines that are independent of U.S. control, has hastily intervened in the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria at Turkey's open invitation and is forging good relations with many Middle Eastern countries, including Israel's sworn enemies.

Second, there is a possibility that the EU and Turkey will support the Lebanese Army to become an enemy of Israel, or even a formidable foe superior to Hezbollah in Lebanon!

Third, there is a possibility that the EU will bring Iran, and especially Russia, into the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria to constrain Western policy on Ukraine, especially U.S. policy on Ukraine. The EU can fully portray itself as not a friend of the United States on the issue of Syria and not a friend of Russia on the issue of Ukraine. Or it can also portray itself as not an enemy of the United States on the issue of Syria and not an enemy of Russia on the issue of Ukraine. Whether it is a friend or an enemy of the United States ultimately depends on how the United States considers (ceding interests to the EU, especially "old Europe") the issues of Syria and Ukraine.

Fourth, Russia can also leverage the EU's (old Europe's) active involvement in the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria to some extent to balance Western policy on Ukraine, especially U.S. policy on Ukraine.

Fifth, in a sense, the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria have created a "poker game" situation for the United States, the EU, and Russia on Middle East issues and on the issue of Ukraine. If Turkey or neighboring Middle Eastern countries are included, it becomes "a table of mahjong." And if China's current comprehensive strength and ubiquitous influence in the world are taken into account, it becomes "a table of super mahjong."

Sixth, based on the above five points, even if Trump takes office smoothly, it will be difficult for him to end well! And the Middle East situation evolving from the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria once again hints at the taste of a "fourth round of rearrangements."

It's worth mentioning that taking Turkey as an example, when we first mentioned the concept of "rearrangements," even at the beginning of the "fourth round of rearrangements," although Turkey was one of the "four regional power countries in the Middle East," it was still a "pawn." But now, Turkey is probably no longer a "pawn"; it is at least a "half-player."

The only significant loser is Iran. Iran wants to reconcile with the West (Europe), but the other side may not feel the same way. However, Iran remains one of the "four regional power countries in the Middle East" and is certainly not content to sit on the sidelines in the subsequent developments of the situation in Syria. But one thing is certain: in such a chaotic and complex situation in Syria, the first to intervene will likely end up exhausted and seeking a "neutral party" to "judge the situation," and perhaps this is the opportunity the international community is waiting for.

●If the Houthi militia continues to follow a compromising Iran, the compression of its living space will be inevitable

It's worth mentioning that the West has long exploited various factors of disunity in the Middle East to control the region. This tactic is also evident in how the West has used the Taiwan issue to tie down Japan, and through Japan, to control the Western Pacific region. This is the "offshore balancing" strategy.

Its core lies in exploiting regional national, ethnic, and religious conflicts to create chaos and opposition, thereby drawing some countries to balance against others, and ultimately achieving "remote control" over the region.

In our observation, Iran does have its own advantages. For example, it is a populous country in the Middle East with obvious geopolitical advantages, abundant energy and mineral resources, a relatively complete manufacturing sector, and a strategic geographical location. Therefore, deep down, Iran has always had the idea of replacing Saudi Arabia and hopes that the West will cooperate with Iran to counterbalance Saudi Arabia. Some in Iran even harbor the fantasy of replacing Saudi Arabia and Israel, serving as the West's "economic and military anchor" in the Middle East. In our view, these fantasies align with Iran's characteristic of "having many small ideas but lacking grand strategic considerations." Ideas that go against the trend, if not abandoned soon, may lead only to a dead end.

Speaking of Iran, it's impossible not to mention the now-fragmented "Shiite resistance axis," especially the Houthi militia. In our opinion, if the Houthi militia ultimately cannot be utilized by the international community and continues to follow a compromising Iran, its existence will be squeezed.

As Iran's influence wanes and it is potentially ostracized by the international community, the Houthi militia will either have to align with the Arab League or may be eliminated by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Otherwise, Saudi Arabia wouldn't be in such a hurry to target you, and someone would mediate between the Houthi militia and Saudi Arabia. In this regard, we hope that the Houthi militia will deeply recognize the cruelty of international political games in the specific evolution of the Middle East situation, exemplified by the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. Even Western capital interests may see their global strategy completely fail amid the current turmoil in the Middle East.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7647 - A Brief Review of the "Mediterranean Plan" and Why the EU is So Actively Involved in the Subsequent Development of the Syrian Situation (2024-12-22)
Issue 7648 - In the Next 30 Days, All Aspects, Especially Russia and Iran, Must Not Underestimate the Tremendous Destructive Power of Biden and the "Bidens" Who Are Almost Crazy in Their Quest for Selfish Gains by Fanning the Flames Everywhere (2024-12-22)
Issue 7658 - Eastern Commentary: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei States that "Iran Has No Proxies in the Middle East" (2024-12-25)

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