2025年1月13日，星期一，第1156期

美苏创立的“雅尔塔体系”崩塌后，国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”、是否走向世界版“战国”时期？

【媒体报道】

1月10日，即将离任的美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯在约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院发表讲话。希克斯在这场题为《超越中国：从战略竞争中学到的教训》的演讲中说，当今中国不同于冷战时期的苏联阵营，若美国沿用40年前的那些老一套策略，是不可能取得成功赢得竞争的。她称，竞争并不意味着冲突，任何人都不应寻求与中国爆发冲突，美国的目的是保持威慑，而非不必要地挑衅中国，从而引发冲突。她还提到，美国必须谨慎公开军事能力投资内容，因为中国快速跟进的能力太强了。

希克斯从四个角度谈及任内对华战略竞争的教训：

其一是专注于最高优先事项，因为世界总是会分散你的注意力。中国挑战并不是件新鲜事，早在二十多年前国防部就明确认为，在2015年之后的时期内，可能会出现一个地区大国或全球同等竞争对手，中国和俄罗斯被认为“有潜力成为这样的竞争对手”。过去25年里，美国国防部和历届政府一直在追踪中国的军事现代化步伐，但高级决策者必须动态调整目标和手段，确保战略本身是正确的且具有可行性。

【讨论纪要】

●特朗普很可能因此成为美国历史上第一个身带重罪入主白宫的总统

我们注意到1月12日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统拜登就达成加沙被扣押人质获释协议方面取得“进展”一事进行电话交流的新闻报道。

2天前，也就是1月10日，美国纽约州最高法院法官梅尔尚就美国候任总统特朗普所涉“封口费”案作出判决，宣布特朗普为重罪犯，但予以无条件释放。

在我们看来，特朗普很可能因此成为美国历史上第一个身带重罪入主白宫的总统。显然，特朗普和“特朗普们”与拜登和“拜登们”围绕本次美国总统大选展开的“恶斗”还会继续、升级。对其趋势，特朗与“特朗普们”当前阶段主要拿出的应对手段就是，通过大肆炒作美国或将“全面战略收缩”之话题，对外，主要针对欧、俄；对内，针对拜登和“拜登们”进行反制。

对拜登和“拜登们”而言，特朗普入主白宫在即，至少在当前阶段，势力不可小觑，所以，尽管拜登和“拜登们”已经没有过多精力顾及巴以问题，但面子上的事情还要做，至少还要与被外界称为“犹太资本”的美国政治势力中的“关键少数”拉拉关系，比如，表达对以色列的支持。在此基础上，尽可能继续恶化伊以关系，将局面向美军或被“拖下水”的方向导引。如果这一点做不到，那就在乌克兰方向伺机“点火”。如果这也做不到，不排除在西太方向挑起事端的可能性。原则就是，特朗普和“特朗普们”怎么害怕怎么来，怎么焦虑怎么来。

●人之将死其言也善？美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯的忠告

1月10日，即将离任的美国国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯在约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院发表题为《超越中国：从战略竞争中学到的教训》的演讲。希克斯强调，当今中国不同于冷战时期的苏联阵营，若美国沿用40年前的那些老一套策略，是不可能取得成功并赢得竞争的。

在我们看来，希克斯在向美国政府未来的继任者，乃至整个西方世界传递了以下几个明确信号：

第一，中国的能力太强大；

第二，在“第一”的基础上，中国更有运用强大能力的决心；

第三，不到万不得已，一定避免不必要的对华挑衅从而引发冲突。

值得一提的是，希克斯在演讲中还提到了这样一段内容——中国挑战并不是件新鲜事，早在二十多年前国防部就明确认为，在2015年之后的时期内，可能会出现一个地区大国或全球同等竞争对手，中国和俄罗斯被认为“有潜力成为这样的竞争对手”。过去25年里，美国国防部和历届政府一直在追踪中国的军事现代化步伐，但高级决策者必须动态调整目标和手段，确保战略本身是正确的且具有可行性。

希克斯作为现任美国国防部副部长，美国军方专门研究战略的专家，在其讲演中着重提到了一个我们非常熟悉的年份，2015年。这一年被我们称之为“转折年”。也是在这一年，美国世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权从“绝对”变为“相对”。

在这里，我们不妨再简单回顾一下2014年年底到2015年东方时事解读曾做出的经典评估。

早在2015年年初，东方时事解读就反复强调一个观点：欧洲最晚在当年6月份降息。欧洲直到2014年5月都没有降息，结果进入6月份之后欧洲央行突然宣布降息。同样是在2015年初，东方时事解读指出，一旦欧洲央行6月降息，美联储就最早可以在2014年8月开始加息（最后因“七月流火，八月未央”被迫拖到了年底）。这两个观点之所以一并提出，是因为在东方时事解读的长期观察与评估中，“这个最晚6月降息与最早8月加息”绝不是单纯的金融政策，而是欧美计划联手、着眼于在南方经济体中的经济、特别是金融的薄弱环节、比如印度、巴西、俄罗斯，甚至日本定向发动攻击、以定向引爆局部金融甚至经济危机，企图“顺势”实质性展开“水淹南方”计划、并同时瞄准中国经济、利用“毒贷款”进行“金融狙击”，从而意图在“水淹南方”初始阶段，令南方经济体中实力最强的中国经济特别是金融无暇他顾！

基于对“毒贷款”的多层次观察，我们把西方邪恶势力决定这么做的时间点确定在2014年年底，西方金融通过“量宽”放出天量流动性、经某些金融手段，比如，通过中国部分地产商海外融资、锁定埋在中国经济运行中的“毒贷款”，并达到数量上的顶峰，也就是需要集中还款的一个高峰。只有欧洲央行“最晚6月份降息”之后才会为“最早8月美联储就可以加息”，也就是发动攻击而腾出“欧美经济特别是金融政策协调”的必要空间。2014年的情况非常危急，东方时事解读一度用“（注：西方邪恶势力）图穷匕见”来描述当时的危险情况，反复强调中国要做最坏打算。我们坚信我们会取得胜利，但是中国即便胜利（由于南海战场建设和群众路线还未准备好），也是“惨胜”。

通过以上回顾，我们想要着重强调的是：

第一，希克斯的言论侧面验证了，为什么针对2014年年底到2015年年初，东方时事解读一度用“（注：西方邪恶势力）图穷匕见”来描述当时的危险情况。换言之，美国军方，或者说西方的战略专家不是傻瓜，他们对局势的评估某种意义上和我们一致，只是从西方的角度进行观察。也就是说，他们认为，2014年到2015年非常重要，以至于必须对中国下手，否则后患无穷；

第二，在西方眼中，其最大的敌人，最后的敌人，从来都是中国，而非俄罗斯；

第三，西方与俄罗斯之间不是没有尝试过媾和。2015年7月，俄罗斯出卖伊朗和西方签署伊核协议就是如此，结果被中国一招反杀——中国在2015年七月到八月，宣布经济减速，公布黄金储备，进行汇率机制改革，构成“七月流火，八月未央”的主要内容，于是有了所谓“耶伦哭晕在厕所”的梗。迫于无奈，美国被迫跟随中国调整政策，不得不将主要矛头指向俄罗斯、将压力集中压向俄罗斯。对于俄罗斯的遭遇，在中国看来，只能用“如有雷同、纯属巧合”来解释。最终，俄罗斯同样迫于无奈、“军事复盘”叙利亚，是为“九月授衣”。

第四，如果说2015年中国敢于“亮剑”是基于非传统安全层面，那么在2016年，即便在我们对航母还相对比较陌生的情况下，基于传统安全层面也敢“亮剑”——当着美国的面，用“DF-21D”“DF-26”准确命中模拟美航母的高速移动靶船。这是典型的狭路相逢勇者胜！

结果，美国人怂了。道理很简单，其一，在南海，在中国周边地区美军打不过PLA；其二，由“其一”衍生的最直接、最严重后果就是，2016年就打出一个“加勒比海效应”（当年美国在加勒比海战胜西班牙，后逐渐崛起为世界大国）。这意味美帝世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权或会因此一命呜呼。

●美苏创立的“雅尔塔体系”崩塌后，国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”、是否走向世界版“战国”时期？

联合国是二战战胜国用以维护雅尔塔体系的工具，美、英、苏三国作为当时的“三巨头”（实际上就是美苏），其意志主导着联合国的创立。长期以来，根据联合国初期历史，人们往往只看到美国创立联合国并利用它实现世界霸权的意图，却较少关注了其他两国，特别是在战后与美国针锋相对的苏联创立联合国的动机。如果只按照通常的观点强调美国对联合国的控制，就不能解释苏联为什么要参与创立联合国。所以，联合国本质上是美苏共同制定的统治世界的“G2方案”。

苏联解体之后，尽管其主要“继承人”俄罗斯联邦，无论从绝对实力，还是从相对实力角度出发，都无法和苏联同日而语，但是，某种意义上说，雅尔塔体系，或者说雅尔塔体系的“残骸”仍然存在、并继续发挥其固有作用，且这种作用更多通过美国“一超独霸”的方式体现出现。

2022年2月24日，俄乌战争爆发。尽管国际社会从历史发展脉络和事情起因之“盐从哪儿咸，醋打哪儿酸”的角度公正评判这场战争，但俄罗斯采取的行动不能不说，破坏了乌克兰的主权和领土完整，是一种军事扩张行动。尤其在俄罗斯占领克里米亚的问题上，在卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克、扎波罗热、赫尔松四地“公投”入俄的问题上，俄方更是毫不掩饰地提出扩张领土的要求，并将其作为和西方讨价还价的筹码。无独有偶，以当选总统特朗普提出的“吞并”加拿大、格陵兰岛以及巴拿马运河为标志，美国也正式提出了自己的领土扩张要求。特朗普宣称，不排除动用军事手段。

在东方时事解读的观察与评估中，以此两件事为标志，如果最终特朗普将其“疯狂计划”付诸实施，那么由美苏自第二次世界大战后创立的“雅尔塔体系”，某种意义上说，即便是“残骸”，也将加速瓦解。且在瓦解过程中，国际秩序或将进入“礼崩乐坏”之世界版的“战国”时期。在中国历史上，“春秋”到“战国”的标志性事件是“三家分晋”。这一事件发生在公元前453年，韩、赵、魏三家联合推翻智氏，并最终瓜分晋国，从而形成了之后的“战国七雄”格局，为“战国”时代的开启奠定基础。

●美国和俄罗斯也许同时在心照不宣地幻想一种可能

1943年11月28日至12月1日，苏、美、英三国首脑，斯大林、罗斯福和丘吉尔在德黑兰会议结束时发表的宣言，是为《德黑兰宣言》。值得一提的是，在发表《德黑兰宣言》和《苏美英三国关于伊朗的宣言》的同时，三方（实际上就是美苏）还签订了对德作战的《苏美英三国德黑兰总协定》。这个当时保密的协定是《德黑兰宣言》的重要组成部分，它规定盟国在西欧开辟第二战场，并实行“霸王战役”计划，以及发动“诺曼底登陆”的时间。

在俄乌战争仍在继续，俄罗斯与西方就乌克兰问题反复拉锯，激烈博弈的背景下，在特朗普“疯狂言论”真的付诸实施的前提下，我们不妨讨论一种可能的未来国际局势走向。

如果我们将当年的纳粹德国比作今天的欧洲，围绕乌克兰问题，在美国和俄罗斯（在国际社会力所能及的战略策应下）事实上在乌克兰形成对峙，谁也奈何不了谁的情况下，在欧盟（老欧洲）急吼吼忙于介入叙利亚局势后续发展的情况下，美国和俄罗斯也许同时在心照不宣地幻想一种可能：

第一，在交易的过程中，如果欧洲配合，不进行抗争，那就将最终攻击目标指向中国；

第二，在交易的过程中，如果欧洲不配合，进行抗争，甚至激烈抗争，那就首先将欧洲像当年《德黑兰宣言》中规定的那样在欧洲“开辟第二战场”，也就是瓜分欧洲；

第三，在中国之外，相比于美国和俄罗斯而言，欧洲始终是一个松散的政治联合体，是美、欧、俄三方中最弱的一方。这与此前我们强调，当今世界只有“两个半主权国家”——中国，美国，俄罗斯是“半个”是一致的。这或是美国和俄罗斯可以如此幻想的基础之一；

第四，如果国际局势真的如同前三点所描述的那样发展，则目前处于“游离状态”，也就是游离于欧美平台之外的，由美国资本利益代言的西方资本利益最终选择“复杂转进”至美国平台。

有道是，理想很美满，现实很骨感。以上不过是美国和俄罗斯各自打的小算盘，他们似乎忽视了，或者故意选择对中国视而不见。

我们以俄罗斯为例加以说明。

第一，苏联解体后，俄罗斯一直谋求融入西方，但为什么美国始终不允许俄罗斯加入北约呢？2015年，俄罗斯选择出卖伊朗的方式对西方妥协，但为什么会有“七月流火，八月未央，九月授衣”呢？2021年，美军从阿富汗撤军，但为什么会在2022年爆发俄乌战争，且持续至今呢？如果说伊朗尽管选择妥协，但仍不甘心被西方彻底支配，那俄罗斯又如何甘心被西方彻底支配？那首先意味着俄罗斯全球战略，因其核心——阿富汗政策小九九，基于“借中国之力平衡西方影响力”彻底失效而崩塌，这样的结果俄方能接受吗？

第二，在我们看来，如果美国和俄罗斯打算彻底将二战后美苏基于统治世界建立的“G2模式”——雅尔塔体系送入历史的话，中国无非和你们一起进入“战国”时代，而在“礼崩乐坏”之下，恐怕拼的就是“绝对实力”。

第三，在美国全球战略收缩的背景下，经济结构上美国与俄罗斯分别同中国高度互补，但彼此又高度相克的背景下，美国和俄罗斯之间的矛盾如何去解？

第四，如果欧洲配合，不进行抗争，在美国和俄罗斯将最终攻击目标指向中国的过程中，一旦俄罗斯做出损害中国核心利益的事，在中国将其送上被西方“实质性消化之快车道”的情况下，俄罗斯如何确保西方不对俄罗斯痛下杀手？

第五，美国和俄罗斯如何确保欧洲，尤其是“老欧洲”在其密谋共同瓜分欧洲的情况下一定选择配合而非抗争？也就是说，尽管此时此刻，从属于西方资本利益的欧洲资本利益已经分裂，且一部分去了美国，另一部分去了中国，美国和俄罗斯如何确保欧洲不会像中国寻求帮助（方式类似国际社会战略策应俄罗斯。比如，如果德国选择党的魏德尔上台，或会向中国寻求帮助，一则为了德国经济生存，二则为了限制俄罗斯）？

●即便基于以上讨论，美国总统选举是“目前形式的美国”倒数最后一次或倒数第二次选举”之相关评估也未改变

在以上战略构想下，欧洲会乱，中东会乱，南美也会乱，只有中国周边地区要好一些，但是，这种“好一些”是需要一个“沉淀”过程的。也就是说，一开始中国周边地区也会乱上一阵子。

这个时候的世界局势，有点类似于中国历史上“春秋”向“战国”过渡的过程中，逐渐成形的七大诸侯国彼此之间奈何不了对方，于是便开始吞并周边的小国。

有趣的是，无论是遂行扩张政策的“大国”，还是提心吊胆随时被吞并的“小国”，方方面面似乎都和中国在经济上高度互补。所以，中国不会参与到这种“大国‘吞并’小国”的扩张主义浪潮中去，中国会继续坚持和平路线，首先做好自己，并不断循环升级“最低经济内循环”。

在这个过程中，俄罗斯也许会吞并乌克兰，美国会吞并加拿大，对我们来说，如果各方默许，中国就收回台湾。如果反对，俄罗斯吞并乌克兰也好，美国吞并加拿大也好，恐怕都难如愿。中国首先会依据“实力说话”之你们共同需要的、赖以续命的中国统一、成熟、庞大的大市场对其进行制裁。对我们来说，新中国的建立类似当年秦国的“商鞅变法”。经过70多年的励精图治，如今的中国已然傲视群雄。而在中国之外是一片乱象，欧洲或已经变为“第二个中东”，美国、俄罗斯，包括“老欧洲”中一些有野心、报复的国家，如：德国，法国等，会纷纷执行扩张主义，四处“攻城略地”，且他们之间的各种矛盾也会在“攻城略地”的过程中不断激化。

最后需要补充的是，围绕“这一次（2024年11月5日）美国总统选举是‘目前形式的美国’的倒数最后一次或倒数第二次选举”之相关评估，即便是美国当选总统特朗普已经公开扬言要并吞加拿大、格陵兰岛，巴拿马运河，从而一旦实施就将彻底破坏《联合国宪章》。也就是目前类似中国古代“春秋”阶段“的国际秩序陷入“礼崩乐坏”、继而全球形势或进入类似中国古代的“战国时代”，也是没有根本变化——我们仍然认为，从2025年（注：如果一定要有个精确时间，现在是2025年年初）开始计算起，“目前形式的美国”，应该在2032年（如果一定要有个精确时间、最后时间是2032年年底，‘+或－’半年）解体。一旦如此，则目前（至少表面是）仍然附着西方资本利益的代表，美国身上的一切霸权都将不复存在！

【相关话题】

第7709期-特朗普称不排除动武控制格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河传递出何种信号？（2025-1-8）
第7714期－对特朗普不排除通过“军事或经济胁迫”手段夺取巴拿马运河和格陵兰岛控制权之可能性，布林肯为何说“不理解”？（2025-1-10）
第7719期－在中国官方公布鄂尔多斯盆地泾川地区取得铀矿找矿重大突破的背后，美国或“战略收缩”的强烈信号触动了谁的小心思？（2025-1-12）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Monday, January 13, 2025, Issue No. 1156

After the collapse of the "Yalta System" established by the US and the Soviet Union, the international order is in disarray. Is the world heading towards a global "Warring States" period?

[Media Coverage]

On January 10th, Kathryn Hicks, the outgoing Deputy Secretary of Defense of the United States, delivered a speech at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. In her speech titled "Beyond China: Lessons Learned from Strategic Competition," Hicks said that today's China is different from the Soviet bloc during the Cold War, and if the US continues to use the same old strategies from 40 years ago, it is unlikely to succeed in winning the competition. She stated that competition does not necessarily mean conflict, and no one should seek to provoke a conflict with China. The goal of the US is to maintain deterrence, not to unnecessarily provoke China and thereby trigger a conflict. She also mentioned that the US must be cautious about publicly disclosing investments in military capabilities, because China's ability to quickly follow suit is too strong.

Hicks discussed the lessons learned from strategic competition with China during her tenure from four perspectives:

The first is to focus on top priorities, because the world will always distract you. The challenge from China is not a new thing. More than two decades ago, the Department of Defense clearly recognized that a regional power or a global competitor might emerge after 2015, with China and Russia considered "potential candidates for such competitors." Over the past 25 years, the US Department of Defense and successive administrations have been tracking China's military modernization, but senior policymakers must dynamically adjust their goals and means to ensure that the strategy itself is correct and feasible.

【Discussion Summary】

● Trump is likely to become the first US president in history to enter the White House with a felony conviction

We noted the news report on January 12th that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Biden had a telephone conversation regarding "progress" in reaching an agreement on the release of hostages held in Gaza.

Two days earlier, on January 10th, Judge Merchan of the New York State Supreme Court ruled on the "hush money" case involving US President-elect Trump, declaring him a felon but releasing him unconditionally.

In our view, Trump is likely to become the first US president in history to enter the White House with a felony conviction. Clearly, the battle between Trump and "the Trumps" and Biden and "the Bidens" over this US presidential election will continue and escalate. As for the trend, the main response of Trump and "the Trumps" at this stage is to counter Biden and "the Bidens" by widely promoting the topic that the US may engage in "comprehensive strategic retraction," externally mainly targeting Europe and Russia, and internally targeting Biden and "the Bidens."

For Biden and "the Bidens," with Trump set to enter the White House, his influence cannot be underestimated at this stage. Therefore, although Biden and "the Bidens" no longer have much energy to focus on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, they still need to save face and at least maintain relations with the "key minority" within the US political forces known as "Jewish capital," such as expressing support for Israel. On this basis, they will try to further worsen Israel-Iran relations and steer the situation towards potentially dragging the US military into the conflict. If this cannot be achieved, they will look for opportunities to "ignite" the situation in Ukraine. If even that is not possible, they do not rule out the possibility of provoking incidents in the Western Pacific. The principle is to do whatever frightens and anxieties Trump and "the Trumps."

● Is a dying person's speech kind? Advice from Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary of Defense of the United States

On January 10th, Kathleen Hicks, the outgoing Deputy Secretary of Defense of the United States, delivered a speech titled "Beyond China: Lessons Learned from Strategic Competition" at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. Hicks emphasized that today's China is different from the Soviet bloc during the Cold War, and if the United States continues to use the same old strategies from 40 years ago, it is unlikely to succeed and win the competition.

In our view, Hicks is conveying the following clear messages to the future successors of the US government and even the entire Western world:

Firstly, China's capabilities are too strong;

Secondly, based on the "first" point, China has even greater determination to use its strong capabilities;

Thirdly, unnecessary provocations against China should be avoided at all costs to prevent conflicts.

It is worth mentioning that Hicks also mentioned the following in her speech: The challenge from China is not a new thing. More than 20 years ago, the Department of Defense clearly believed that after 2015, a regional power or a global competitor might emerge, with China and Russia considered as "having the potential to become such competitors." Over the past 25 years, the US Department of Defense and successive governments have been tracking China's military modernization, but senior policymakers must dynamically adjust their goals and means to ensure that the strategy itself is correct and feasible.

As the current Deputy Secretary of Defense of the United States and an expert in strategic research within the US military, Hicks highlighted a year that we are very familiar with in her speech – 2015. This year is referred to as a "turning point" by us. It was also in this year that US global hegemony, especially its financial hegemony, shifted from "absolute" to "relative."

Here, let's briefly review the classic assessments made by "Eastern Affairs Interpretation" from the end of 2014 to 2015.

As early as the beginning of 2015, "Eastern Affairs Interpretation" repeatedly emphasized the viewpoint that Europe would lower interest rates by June at the latest. Europe had not lowered interest rates by May 2014, but suddenly announced a rate cut in June. Also at the beginning of 2015, "Eastern Affairs Interpretation" pointed out that once the European Central Bank lowered interest rates in June, the Federal Reserve could start raising interest rates as early as August 2014 (ultimately postponed to the end of the year due to "the heat of July and the lingering August"). These two viewpoints were proposed together because, in the long-term observation and assessment of "Eastern Affairs Interpretation," the "latest June rate cut and earliest August rate hike" were by no means simple financial policies, but a joint plan by Europe and the United States to target the economic, especially financial, weaknesses of southern economies, such as India, Brazil, Russia, and even Japan, to launch directed attacks, "taking advantage of the situation" to substantially unfold the "flooding the South" plan, and simultaneously aiming at the Chinese economy, using "toxic loans" for "financial sniping," with the intention of making the strongest economy in the southern economies, China, particularly its economy and finance, too preoccupied to deal with other matters during the initial stage of "flooding the South"!

Based on multi-level observations of "toxic loans," we determined that the timepoint at which Western evil forces decided to do this was at the end of 2014. Through "quantitative easing," Western finance released astronomical liquidity, and through certain financial means, such as overseas financing by some Chinese real estate developers, they locked in "toxic loans" embedded in China's economic operation and reached a peak in quantity, that is, a peak in the need for concentrated repayment. Only after the European Central Bank "lowers interest rates by June at the latest" will it create the necessary space for "the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as August," that is, to launch attacks, through "coordination of European and American economic and financial policies." The situation was very critical in 2014, and "Eastern Affairs Interpretation" once used the phrase "revealing the dagger at the end of the map" (a Chinese idiom meaning "showing one's true intentions when all other options are exhausted") to describe the dangerous situation at that time, repeatedly emphasizing that China needed to prepare for the worst. We believed that we would win, but even if China won (due to the fact that the construction of the South China Sea battlefield and the mass line were not yet ready), it would be a "Pyrrhic victory." Through the above review, we want to emphasize the following points:

Firstly, Hicks' remarks indirectly confirm why Eastern current affairs interpretations once used the phrase "(Note: Western evil forces) revealing their true intentions" to describe the dangerous situation from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015. In other words, the US military, or Western strategic experts, are not fools. Their assessment of the situation is, to some extent, consistent with ours, but observed from a Western perspective. That is to say, they believed that 2014 to 2015 was so crucial that they had to take action against China, or else they would face dire consequences.

Secondly, in the eyes of the West, their greatest and ultimate enemy has always been China, not Russia.

Thirdly, the West and Russia have attempted to make peace. In July 2015, Russia betrayed Iran and signed the Iran nuclear deal with the West. However, China counteracted with one move – by announcing economic slowdown, disclosing gold reserves, and reforming the exchange rate mechanism from July to August 2015, constituting the main content of the so-called "July's heat wanes, August lingers on" (a play on words in Chinese). This led to the joke, "Yellen fainted in the bathroom." Forced by circumstances, the US had to follow China's policy adjustment and had no choice but to direct its main focus and pressure towards Russia. As far as China is concerned, Russia's situation can only be explained by "if there are similarities, it's purely coincidental." Ultimately, Russia, also forced by circumstances, "militarily revisited" Syria, which is known as the "September brings clothes for cold" (a metaphorical expression).

Fourthly, if China dared to "unsheathe its sword" in 2015 based on non-traditional security aspects, then in 2016, even when we were relatively unfamiliar with aircraft carriers, we still dared to "unsheathe our sword" based on traditional security aspects – by accurately hitting a high-speed moving target ship simulating a US aircraft carrier with "DF-21D" and "DF-26" missiles in front of the US. This is a classic case of "the brave one wins when two parties meet on a narrow path!"

As a result, the Americans backed down. The reasons are simple: firstly, in the South China Sea and surrounding areas, the US military cannot defeat the PLA; secondly, the most direct and severe consequence derived from the first reason is that a "Caribbean Sea effect" emerged in 2016 (referring to when the US defeated Spain in the Caribbean Sea and gradually rose to become a world power). This implies that the US world hegemony, especially its financial hegemony, may be doomed as a result.

● After the Collapse of the "Yalta System" Established by the US and the Soviet Union, Is the International Order Heading Towards a Global "Warring States" Period with "Moral Decay and Disorder"?

The United Nations was a tool used by the victorious powers of World War II to uphold the Yalta System. The United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union, as the "Big Three" at the time (effectively the US and the Soviet Union), dominated the founding of the UN with their will. For a long time, based on the early history of the UN, people have often only seen the US's intention to establish and use the UN to achieve world hegemony, while paying less attention to the motives of the other two countries, especially the Soviet Union, which was at odds with the US after the war. If we only emphasize the US's control over the UN according to the conventional viewpoint, we cannot explain why the Soviet Union participated in its founding. Therefore, the UN is essentially a "G2 plan" jointly devised by the US and the Soviet Union to rule the world.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, although its main "successor," the Russian Federation, cannot be compared to the Soviet Union in terms of either absolute or relative strength, in a sense, the Yalta System, or the "remnants" of the Yalta System, still exist and continue to play their inherent roles, with this role being more pronounced through the US's "unipolar dominance."

On February 24, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out. Although the international community has fairly judged this war from the perspective of historical development and the root causes of the conflict, it cannot be denied that Russia's actions have undermined Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and constitute a military expansion. Especially on the issue of Russia's occupation of Crimea and the "referendums" in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson for their incorporation into Russia, Russia has openly put forward its territorial expansion demands and used them as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West. Similarly, marked by then-President Trump's proposal to "annex" Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal, the US has also officially put forward its own territorial expansion demands. Trump declared that military means would not be ruled out.

In the observation and assessment of Eastern current affairs interpretations, with these two events as markers, if Trump ultimately puts his "crazy plan" into practice, then the "Yalta System" established by the US and the Soviet Union after World War II will, in a sense, even in its "remnants," accelerate its collapse. And in the process of collapse, the international order may enter a global version of the "Warring States" period characterized by "moral decay and disorder." In Chinese history, the landmark event marking the transition from the "Spring and Autumn Period" to the "Warring States Period" was the "Partition of Jin." This event occurred in 453 BC when the states of Han, Zhao, and Wei jointly overthrew the Zhi family and ultimately divided the state of Jin, thereby forming the subsequent "Seven Warring States" landscape and laying the foundation for the beginning of the "Warring States" era.

●The US and Russia May Silently Harbor a Mutual Fantasy

From November 28 to December 1, 1943, the heads of state of the Soviet Union, the United States, and Britain—Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill—issued the Tehran Declaration at the conclusion of the Tehran Conference. It is worth mentioning that along with the Tehran Declaration and the Declaration of the Soviet Union, the United States, and Britain on Iran, the three parties (effectively the US and the Soviet Union) also signed the Tehran General Agreement Among the Soviet Union, the United States, and Britain on the War Against Germany. This agreement, which was confidential at the time, was an important part of the Tehran Declaration. It stipulated the opening of a second front in Western Europe by the Allies, the implementation of the "Operation Overlord" plan, and the timing of the "Normandy Landings."

Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, with Russia and the West engaged in repeated tug-of-wars and intense strategic games over the Ukraine issue, and assuming Trump's "crazy rhetoric" is actually put into practice, we might as well discuss a possible future trajectory of the international situation.

If we compare Nazi Germany of that time to Europe today, with the US and Russia effectively confronting each other in Ukraine, with neither able to gain the upper hand, and with the EU (old Europe) eagerly intervening in the subsequent developments of the Syrian situation, the US and Russia may silently harbor a mutual fantasy:

First, if Europe cooperates and does not resist during the negotiation process, the ultimate target of attack will be China.

Second, if Europe does not cooperate and resists, even fiercely, then Europe will be the first to face a "second front" opened in Europe, as stipulated in the Tehran Declaration, which means the division of Europe.

Third, compared to the US and Russia, Europe has always been a loose political union and is the weakest among the three parties—the US, Europe, and Russia. This aligns with our previous emphasis that there are only "two and a half sovereign countries" in the world today—China, the US, and Russia as the "half." This may be one of the foundations for the US and Russia to harbor such fantasies.

Fourth, if the international situation develops as described in the first three points, the Western capital interests, currently in a "detached state" and represented by US capital interests outside the European and American platforms, will ultimately choose to "make a complex transition" to the US platform.

As the saying goes, ideals are beautiful, but reality is harsh. The above is just the small calculations made by the US and Russia, and they seem to have overlooked or deliberately chosen to ignore China.

Let's take Russia as an example to illustrate.

First, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has been seeking to integrate into the West, but why has the US never allowed Russia to join NATO? In 2015, Russia chose to compromise with the West by betraying Iran, but why did the saying "July's heat lingers, August's end is not yet near, in September, clothes are given" come to pass? In 2021, US troops withdrew from Afghanistan, but why did the Russia-Ukraine war erupt in 2022 and continue to this day? If Iran, despite compromising, is still unwilling to be completely dominated by the West, how can Russia be willing to be completely dominated by the West? That would first mean the collapse of Russia's global strategy, with its core—the Afghanistan policy gimmick—based on "balancing Western influence with Chinese power," a result that Russia cannot accept.

Second, in our view, if the US and Russia intend to completely consign the post-WWII "G2 model" established by the US and the Soviet Union for world domination—the Yalta System—to history, China will simply enter the "Warring States" era with you. And in a time of "moral decay and disorder," it may come down to "absolute strength."

Third, against the backdrop of the US's global strategic retraction, and with the economic structures of the US and Russia being highly complementary to China yet highly antagonistic to each other, how can the contradictions between the US and Russia be resolved?

Fourth, if Europe cooperates and does not resist, and if the US and Russia ultimately target China, once Russia does something that harms China's core interests, and China puts Russia on the "fast track to being substantially absorbed by the West," how can Russia ensure that the West will not deal a fatal blow to it?

Fifth, how can the US and Russia ensure that Europe, especially "old Europe," will choose to cooperate rather than resist when they are plotting together to divide Europe? That is, even though at this moment, European capital interests subordinate to Western capital interests have split, with some going to the US and some to China, how can the US and Russia ensure that Europe will not seek help from China (in a way similar to the international community's strategic support for Russia. For example, if the AfD's Weidel comes to power in Germany, she may seek help from China, both for the survival of the German economy and to restrict Russia)?

●Even based on the above discussion, the assessment that the U.S. presidential election is the last or second-to-last election "for the current form of the United States" remains unchanged.

Under this strategic vision, Europe will be in chaos, the Middle East will be in chaos, and South America will also be in chaos. Only the areas around China will be slightly better, but this "better" situation will require a "settling" process. That is to say, the areas around China will also experience some turmoil at first.

The current global situation is somewhat similar to the transition period from the "Spring and Autumn Period" to the "Warring States Period" in Chinese history, when the seven major vassal states gradually formed and could not overpower each other, so they began to annex the surrounding small states.

Interestingly, whether it's the "big countries" pursuing expansionist policies or the "small countries" living in fear of being annexed, they all seem to be highly complementary to China economically. Therefore, China will not participate in this wave of expansionism where "big countries annex small countries". China will continue to adhere to the path of peace, first and foremost by doing well on its own and continuously upgrading its "minimum economic internal circulation".

In this process, Russia may annex Ukraine, and the United States may annex Canada. For us, if all parties acquiesce, China will recover Taiwan. If they object, whether it's Russia annexing Ukraine or the United States annexing Canada, it will be difficult for them to succeed. China will first impose sanctions on them based on the "strength speaks" principle, leveraging the unified, mature, and vast Chinese market that they all need to survive. For us, the founding of New China is similar to the "Shang Yang's Reforms" in the State of Qin. After more than 70 years of diligent governance, China today stands tall among the nations. And outside of China, there is chaos everywhere. Europe may have already become the "second Middle East", and the United States, Russia, including some ambitious and vengeful countries in "old Europe" such as Germany and France, will all pursue expansionism, "conquering territories" everywhere, and their various contradictions will also intensify in the process of "conquering territories".

Finally, it should be added that regarding the assessment that "this U.S. presidential election (on November 5, 2024) is the last or second-to-last election for the current form of the United States", even if the elected U.S. President Trump has publicly threatened to use military force to control Greenland and the Panama Canal, which would completely undermine the UN Charter if implemented. That is, the current international order, similar to the "Spring and Autumn Period" stage in ancient China, is falling into a state of "collapse of rites and music", and the global situation may enter a "Warring States Period" similar to ancient China. There is no fundamental change - we still believe that, starting from 2025 (if a precise time is needed, it is now the beginning of 2025), the "current form of the United States" should disintegrate by 2032 (if a precise time is needed, the final time is the end of 2032, give or take six months). Once this happens, all the hegemony that currently (at least superficially) represents Western capital interests and is embodied in the United States will cease to exist!

[Related Topics]

Issue 7709: What signal does Trump's statement that he does not rule out using military force to control Greenland and the Panama Canal send? (January 8, 2025)
Issue 7714: Why does Blinken say he "doesn't understand" Trump's possibility of using "military or economic coercion" to seize control of the Panama Canal and Greenland? (January 10, 2025)
Issue 7719: Behind China's official announcement of a major breakthrough in uranium exploration in the Jingchuan area of the Ordos Basin, whose intentions are stirred by the strong signal of a possible "strategic retraction" by the United States? (January 12, 2025)

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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