2025年1月14日，星期二，第1157期

为什么说“俄、伊将签署全面战略伙伴关系条约”折射出两国或已提前开始享受“被合纵国”之“便利”的小心思？

【媒体报道】

1月13日，俄罗斯总统普京1月17日将与访俄的伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬举行会谈，并签署两国全面战略伙伴关系条约。消息称，预计双方将讨论进一步扩大双边合作的前景，包括贸易、投资、运输和人文领域，还将就当前地区和国际重要问题进行讨论。会谈结束后，普京和佩泽希齐扬将签署俄罗斯和伊朗全面战略伙伴关系条约，并向媒体发表声明。

【讨论纪要】

●在国际局势剧烈动荡发展中，风雨飘摇的联合国

这几天我们讨论的一个主要话题就是，如果美苏创立的“雅尔塔体系”彻底崩塌，导致国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”，是否国际局势的后续发展会走向世界版的“战国”时期？

说到美苏创立的“雅尔塔体系”和“礼崩乐坏”就不得不说一下联合国。值得一提的是，旧中国的‌民国政府也曾是联合国安理会常任理事国之一。

从历史资料看，成为联合国安理会常任理事国的主要原因包括其在抗日战争中的贡献和美国的支持。首先，中华民国在抗日战争中发挥了重要作用。自1937年卢沟桥事变爆发后，中国与日本展开了全面战争。中国在战场上付出了巨大的牺牲，有效地牵制了日本的大量兵力，使得日本在中国战场的损失接近其总兵力的一半。这种英勇的抵抗为国际社会所认可，尤其是在美国看来，中国的贡献对于战后世界秩序的稳定具有重要意义。其次，美国的支持起到了关键作用。美国总统罗斯福在战时积极推动国际合作，认为中国在战后世界秩序中应占据重要位置。1943年，美国、苏联和英国在莫斯科会议上确定了美、苏、英、中四国作为常任理事国的席位。此外，英国和苏联虽然最初对中国的常任理事国地位表示反对，但最终在联合国的成立过程中，中国还是成功获得了这一席位。这些历史背景和国际政治考量共同促成了民国政府成为联合国安理会常任理事国。尽管当时的中华民国在经济和军事上相对较弱，但其在国际事务中的重要作用和美国的支持使其得以在联合国中占据重要地位。

之所以苏，英反对民国政府成为联合国安理会常任理事国，主要在于当时的中国是美国的“棋子”，被美国所操纵，这样的中国可以成为美国在联合国的有力帮手。

值得一提的是，蒋介石的起家，包括北伐、黄埔军校的建立都与苏联密切相关。或者说，曾几何时，蒋介石集团和苏联之间关系很是亲近。只是后来，蒋介石集团投靠美国，这件事让苏联始终耿耿于怀。至于英国，因被排除在美苏共管地球之“G2模式”之外，自然对美国力推民国政府成为联合国安理会常任理事国表示反对。

通过以上历史回顾，我们想说的是，美国是联合国主要缔造者之一，也是当前西方主导的世界秩序的主要缔造者之一。现在，美国要亲手掀翻这一切。如果最终美国将吞并加拿大、格陵兰岛和巴拿马落到实处，加上俄罗斯对乌克兰发动“对乌特别军事行动”夺取乌克兰克里米亚和东乌四州，这就是“礼崩乐坏”。当然，发生在2023年的瑞信银行破产事件，某种意义上说，也是一种“礼崩乐坏”，虽然不如特朗普“疯狂计划”那么吸引眼球，但更接近本质。

●这个时候也许我们可以下结论：国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”且正式进入世界版的“战国”时期

‌越王勾践是春秋时期的最后一位霸主‌。他在位期间，忍辱负重，最终灭亡了强大的吴国，迫使吴王夫差自尽，从而结束了春秋时期的争霸格局。

这段历史让我们想到了美苏争霸，以及苏联、华约的解体，以及北约扩张。我们可以将美国看作越国，将特朗普看作‌越王勾践（似乎也经历了一段卧薪尝胆），将苏联看作吴国，将结束了春秋时期的争霸格局看作冷战的结束。‌

值得一提的是，吴国灭亡于公元前473年。70年后，也就是公元前403年，周威烈王封韩、赵、魏三家为诸侯。司马光的编年体史书《资治通鉴》的记载就是从这一事件开始，并将“三家分晋”作为春秋与战国的分界。

在我们看来，如果美国真的将特朗普的“疯狂计划”付诸实施，逼迫或操纵联合国公开承认美国吞并加拿大，格陵兰岛和巴拿马的“合法性”，那么我们就可以将这一事件比作公元前403年，周威烈王封韩、赵、魏三家为诸侯。这个时候也许我们可以下结论：国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”且正式进入世界版的“战国”时期。“三家分晋”后，战国七雄并立、逐鹿中原格局正式形成前的这段时间，经历了一段动荡。其中，强国吞并弱国，大国吞并小国的事情时有发生。

●美国的命运或会像中国春秋战国时期，热衷于“合纵”的齐国那样，在战国末期不战而降

关于战国时期，大家比较感兴趣的一个话题就是“合纵连横”。其中也涌现出一批善于“合纵连横”的名士，被称为“纵横家”。

合纵连横是战国中期产生的一种外交策略。战国中期，诸侯都先后“称王”，但这些“称王”的国家，除宋和中山两国外，都是万乘（战车）的大国，其国力与西周时的周王室不相上下。这些大国原本是西周王室的诸侯，有的甚至是诸侯国中的卿大夫，如号称“三晋”的韩、赵、魏，但它们都发展成为万乘（战车）的大国，这是在不断吞并周围小国的基础上发展起来的。

由于小国的消失，大国间的斗争愈演愈烈，以至于斗争的焦点已经不局限于对小国的领导权，而是关系到自身存亡的生死大事。较强大的国家力图削弱并逐步吞并较弱一些的国家，较弱一些的国家为自身的生存，就互相联合起来抵抗强大的国家的进犯。一旦抵抗失败，又纷纷转向强国以图自保，于是，“合众弱以攻一强”的“合纵”策略及“事一强以攻众弱”的“连横”策略就应时而提出，合纵、连横政策的实施，甚至取代了大国之间的争霸斗争。

以上有关合纵连横的历史简单回顾，在我们看来，就“美苏创立的‘雅尔塔体系’崩塌后，国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”或走向世界版‘战国’时期”的俄问题上具有重要借鉴意义。

值得一提的是，在战国中期，热衷于合纵连横的齐国，终因秦国通过远交近攻之策最终变为“孤家寡人”，尽管齐国是山东六国中最后灭亡的诸侯国，但几乎是不战而降。也许这会是以后美国的命运。

●中国并不谋求称霸世界，且在中国周边地区已经没有敌手。这为我们可以顺利开展“远交近攻”打下坚实基础

在我们的观察与评估中，特朗普的“疯狂计划”，以及国际局势可能因应美苏创立的“雅尔塔体系”彻底崩塌，国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”或走向世界版“战国”时期的可能性，一些国家或已经意识到，甚至提前将自己带入了“合纵国”的角色。其中，俄罗斯和伊朗就是典型的代表。

我们注意到俄罗斯和伊朗将签署全面战略伙伴关系条约的新闻报道。

在我们看来，这一事件的后续发展应该引起国际社会的警觉。首先，我们没看到他们有意向中东投送军事力量。其次，伊朗在和欧洲谈判的同时，俄罗斯也对接触即将上台的美国特朗普政府跃跃欲试，似乎他们已经开始提前享受身为“合纵国”的优惠条件或便利。

此外，在我们的观察中，很难相信他们会从经济或从重返中东的角度签署全面战略伙伴关系，很可能再次涉及内嵌有俄罗斯“阿富汗政策小九九”和伊朗“大波斯主义”的“南北走廊”问题，这与美国版丝绸之路有异曲同工之妙。其中或也会涉及中亚国家。以俄罗斯为例，如果局势真的演化到俄罗斯的对外政策，尤其是对华政策完全运行在“身为合纵国，有机会吃到这样或那样的优惠条件或便利”层面，不排除以中、俄为核心的国际社会走向名存实亡的可能性。

当然，以上仍然是我们对未来国际局势走向的一个大致推演。毕竟特朗普的“疯狂计划”还停留在口头上，甚至特朗普能够顺利上台都还是一个问号。总的来说，形势总体上仍对中国有利，我们有足够的时间施行“远交近攻”。而美国想要玩合纵连横，首先就要付出代价，消耗本就所剩无几的战略资源，因为类似俄罗斯、伊朗这样的“合纵国”一定会向其索要好处。中国“北斗卫星系统”的发展历程告诉我们，今天的中国不仅有实力，更有决心让西方邪恶势力不敢轻易招惹中国，中国并不谋求称霸世界，且在中国周边地区已经没有敌手。这为我们可以顺利开展“远交近攻”打下坚实基础。

中国战国时期合纵连横中最强大的两个国家就是最西边的秦国和最东边的齐国。所以，如果特朗普能顺利上台，不排除特朗普或会尽快访华，以期促成“秦、齐格局”之可能性。

至于某些自觉非常聪明且已经提前将自己带入角色并享受身为“合纵国”优惠条件或便利的国家，对我们而言，甚至可能促使“河渡人”的局势发展得更为顺利，因为“河渡人”的过程中必然会伴随“远交近攻”，将原本援助和策应某些国家的战略资源省下来用在“远交近攻”之上，何乐不为？

【相关话题】

第7715期－如何理解特朗普的相关言论，表面看似战略扩张，实则是一种战略收缩？（2025-1-10）
第7718期－基于美国“战略收缩”或可能“假戏真唱”，小谈美国进一步控制美洲的可能手段（2025-1-12）
第7722期－美苏创立的“雅尔塔体系”崩塌后，国际秩序“礼崩乐坏“是否走向世界版“战国”时期？（2025-1-13）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Tuesday, January 14, 2025, Issue No. 1157

Why is it said that "Russia and Iran will sign a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" reflects the two countries' subtle intention of having already started to enjoy the "convenience" of being "allied states" in advance?

[Media Coverage]

On January 13th, Russian President Putin will hold talks with Iranian President Peyzehiqiyan, who is visiting Russia, on January 17th, and sign a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between the two countries. It is reported that the two sides are expected to discuss the prospects for further expanding bilateral cooperation, including in the fields of trade, investment, transportation, and humanities, and will also discuss current regional and international important issues. After the talks, Putin and Peyzehiqiyan will sign the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Russia and Iran and make statements to the media.

【Discussion Summary】

● Amid the dramatically turbulent international situation, the United Nations, swaying in the wind

A major topic of our discussion in recent days has been whether the subsequent development of the international situation will head towards a "Warring States" period on a global scale if the "Yalta system" founded by the US and the Soviet Union completely collapses, leading to the "collapse of morality and order" in the international system.

When it comes to the "Yalta system" founded by the US and the Soviet Union and the "collapse of morality and order," it is necessary to mention the United Nations. It is worth noting that the Republic of China, the former government of China, was also one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

From historical data, the main reasons for becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council include its contributions during the War of Resistance Against Japan and the support of the United States. Firstly, the Republic of China played an important role in the War of Resistance Against Japan. Since the outbreak of the Lugou Bridge Incident in 1937, China and Japan engaged in a comprehensive war. China made enormous sacrifices on the battlefield and effectively tied down a large number of Japanese troops, with Japan's losses on the Chinese battlefield approaching half of its total military strength. This heroic resistance was recognized by the international community, especially in the eyes of the United States, as China's contributions were of great significance to the stability of the post-war world order. Secondly, the support of the United States played a key role. US President Roosevelt actively promoted international cooperation during the war and believed that China should occupy an important position in the post-war world order. In 1943, the United States, the Soviet Union, and Britain determined the seats of the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, and China as permanent members at the Moscow Conference. In addition, although Britain and the Soviet Union initially opposed China's permanent member status, in the end, during the establishment of the United Nations, China successfully obtained this seat. These historical backgrounds and international political considerations jointly contributed to the Republic of China becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Although the Republic of China was relatively weak economically and militarily at that time, its important role in international affairs and the support of the United States enabled it to occupy an important position in the United Nations.

The reason why the Soviet Union and Britain opposed the Republic of China government becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council was mainly because China at that time was seen as a "pawn" of the United States, manipulated by the US, and such a China could become a powerful ally for the US in the United Nations.

It is worth mentioning that Chiang Kai-shek's rise to power, including the Northern Expedition and the establishment of the Whampoa Military Academy, was closely related to the Soviet Union. In other words, there was a time when the Chiang Kai-shek group had a close relationship with the Soviet Union. However, later on, the Chiang Kai-shek group sided with the United States, which always rankled the Soviet Union. As for Britain, being excluded from the "G2 model" of US-Soviet co-management of the world, naturally opposed the US's strong push for the Republic of China government to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Through this historical review, what we want to say is that the United States is one of the main founders of the United Nations and also one of the main architects of the current Western-dominated world order. Now, the US is about to overturn all this with its own hands. If the US ultimately succeeds in annexing Canada, Greenland, and Panama, coupled with Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine to seize Crimea and the four eastern regions of Ukraine, this would constitute a "collapse of morality and order." Of course, the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse in 2023 can also be seen as a form of "collapse of morality and order" in a certain sense, although it is not as eye-catching as Trump's "crazy plan," it is closer to the essence.

●Perhaps now we can conclude: The international order has "collapsed in morality and order" and officially entered a "Warring States" period on a global scale.

King Goujian of Yue was the last hegemon of the Spring and Autumn Period. During his reign, he endured hardships and ultimately annihilated the powerful state of Wu, forcing King Fuchai of Wu to commit suicide, thus ending the pattern of hegemony in the Spring and Autumn Period.

This history reminds us of the US-Soviet rivalry, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, and the expansion of NATO. We can compare the United States to the state of Yue, Trump to King Goujian (who also seemed to have gone through a period of enduring hardships), the Soviet Union to the state of Wu, and the end of the hegemony pattern in the Spring and Autumn Period to the end of the Cold War.

It is worth mentioning that the state of Wu was annihilated in 473 BC. Seventy years later, in 403 BC, King Weilie of Zhou enfeoffed the three families of Han, Zhao, and Wei as vassal states. Sima Guang's chronological history book "Records of the Grand Historian" begins with this event and regards the "Partition of Jin" as the dividing line between the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period.

In our view, if the US really implements Trump's "crazy plan," forcing or manipulating the United Nations to publicly recognize the "legitimacy" of the US annexing Canada, Greenland, and Panama, then we can compare this event to King Weilie of Zhou enfeoffing the three families of Han, Zhao, and Wei as vassal states in 403 BC. Perhaps now we can conclude: The international order has "collapsed in morality and order" and officially entered a "Warring States" period on a global scale. After the "Partition of Jin," there was a period of turbulence before the seven major powers of the Warring States emerged and competed for supremacy in the Central Plains. During this time, strong countries annexed weak ones, and large countries annexed small ones frequently.

●The fate of the United States may resemble that of the State of Qi during China's Spring and Autumn and Warring States periods, which surrendered without a fight at the end of the Warring States period due to its enthusiasm for "vertical alliance".

A topic of great interest regarding the Warring States period is the "vertical and horizontal alliances". During this time, a group of strategists skilled in these alliances emerged, known as the "Strategists of Vertical and Horizontal Alliances".

Vertical and horizontal alliances were diplomatic strategies that arose in the mid-Warring States period. At this time, the vassal states successively "proclaimed themselves kings", and apart from the states of Song and Zhongshan, these "kingdoms" were all large powers with tens of thousands of chariots, their strength comparable to that of the Zhou royal court during the Western Zhou Dynasty. Originally vassals of the Zhou royal court, some of these large powers were even ministers within vassal states, such as the so-called "Three Jin" states of Han, Zhao, and Wei. However, they all developed into large powers with tens of thousands of chariots through the continuous annexation of neighboring small states.

With the disappearance of small states, the struggle among the large powers intensified, to the point where the focus of the struggle was no longer limited to leadership over small states, but was a matter of life and death related to their own survival. The stronger states sought to weaken and gradually annex the weaker ones, while the weaker states, for their own survival, united to resist the aggression of the stronger states. Once their resistance failed, they turned to the stronger states one after another in an attempt to preserve themselves. Thus, the strategies of "uniting the weak to attack the strong" (vertical alliance) and "allying with the strong to attack the weak" (horizontal alliance) were proposed in response to the times. The implementation of these strategies even replaced the power struggles among the large states.

This brief review of the history of vertical and horizontal alliances, in our view, holds significant reference value for the Russian issue in the context of the "collapse of the Yalta system founded by the US and the Soviet Union, the 'collapse of morality and order' in the international order, and the potential entry into a global 'Warring States' period".

It is worth mentioning that during the mid-Warring States period, the State of Qi, enthusiastic about vertical and horizontal alliances, ultimately became isolated due to Qin's strategy of befriending distant states and attacking nearby ones. Although Qi was the last of the six vassal states in Shandong to be annihilated, it surrendered almost without a fight. Perhaps this will be the fate of the United States in the future.

●China does not seek to dominate the world, and there are no rivals in China's neighboring regions. This lays a solid foundation for us to smoothly implement the strategy of "befriending distant states and attacking nearby ones."

In our observation and assessment, Trump's "crazy plan" and the possibility that the international situation may respond to the complete collapse of the "Yalta system" founded by the US and the Soviet Union, leading to a "collapse of morality and order" in the international order or a global "Warring States" period, some countries may have already realized and even preemptively taken on the role of "allied states." Russia and Iran are typical representatives.

We have noticed news reports that Russia and Iran will sign a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty.

In our view, the subsequent developments of this event should arouse the vigilance of the international community. Firstly, we have not seen any intention to project military power into the Middle East. Secondly, while Iran is negotiating with Europe, Russia is also eager to engage with the upcoming Trump administration in the United States, as if they have already started to enjoy the preferential conditions or conveniences of being "allied states" in advance.

Furthermore, in our observation, it is hard to believe that they would sign a comprehensive strategic partnership from an economic perspective or for the purpose of returning to the Middle East. It is likely to involve the "North-South Corridor" issue, which embeds Russia's "Afghan policy calculations" and Iran's "Greater Persianism," similar to the US version of the Silk Road. Central Asian countries may also be involved. Taking Russia as an example, if the situation really evolves to the point where Russia's foreign policy, especially its policy towards China, operates entirely at the level of "being an allied state and having the opportunity to enjoy such and such preferential conditions or conveniences," it cannot be ruled out that the international community centered on China and Russia may become existent in name only.

Of course, the above is still a rough projection of the future direction of the international situation. After all, Trump's "crazy plan" is still just talk, and even whether Trump can smoothly take office is still a question mark. Overall, the situation is generally favorable to China, and we have enough time to implement the strategy of "befriending distant states and attacking nearby ones." If the United States wants to play the game of vertical and horizontal alliances, it will first have to pay a price and consume its already scarce strategic resources, because "allied states" like Russia and Iran will certainly demand benefits from it. The development journey of China's "BeiDou Navigation Satellite System" tells us that today's China not only has the strength but also the determination to make western evil forces dare not easily provoke China. China does not seek to dominate the world, and there are no rivals in China's neighboring regions. This lays a solid foundation for us to smoothly implement the strategy of "befriending distant states and attacking nearby ones."

In the vertical and horizontal alliances of China's Warring States period, the two most powerful states were Qin in the far west and Qi in the far east. Therefore, if Trump can smoothly take office, it cannot be ruled out that he may visit China as soon as possible in the hope of promoting the possibility of a "Qin-Qi pattern."

As for certain countries that consider themselves very smart and have already preemptively taken on roles and enjoyed the preferential conditions or conveniences of being "allied states," for us, this may even promote the development of the "river-crossing strategy" more smoothly. Because the process of "river-crossing" will inevitably be accompanied by "befriending distant states and attacking nearby ones," saving the strategic resources originally used to assist and support certain countries and using them for "befriending distant states and attacking nearby ones" is a welcome move.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7715 - How to understand Trump's related remarks? On the surface, it seems like strategic expansion, but in reality, it is a strategic retraction. (January 10, 2025)
Issue 7718 - Based on the possibility of the US "strategic retraction" potentially becoming a "real act," a brief discussion on possible means for the US to further control the Americas. (January 12, 2025)
Issue 7722 - After the collapse of the "Yalta system" founded by the US and the Soviet Union, is the international order experiencing a "collapse of morality and order," potentially entering a global "Warring States" period? (January 13, 2025)

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