2025年1月20日，星期一，第1162期

为什么说2015年至今，国际社会或已至少三次以类似“百团大战”的方式阻止“俄向西方妥协、投降”？

【媒体报道】

1月19日，据美国媒体报道，当选美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能在上任后的100天内访问中国。

【讨论纪要】

●特朗普玩“战略收缩”与2021年拜登玩“阿富汗撤军”有异曲同工之妙

1月19日，有美国知名媒体报道称，美国总统特朗普可能在上任后100天内访问中国。

在我们看来，这一新闻报道是此前，*****特别代表、*******应邀在华盛顿出席美国总统特朗普就职典礼，以及*******应约同美国当选总统特朗普通电话的后续发展。属于等待性质的新闻。其进一步验证了，东方时事解读有关，若特朗普真的要将“美国战略收缩”策略落地执行，并试图通过“合纵连横”的方式继续对抗中国，首先要与中国缓和关系（相对），以促成“中美两强并立”之格局的相关评估。

值得一提的是，就在特朗普释放美国或将“战略收缩”，并试图通过“合纵连横”的方式继续对抗中国之强烈信号；俄罗斯、伊朗在接收到上述信号后，在威、逼，尤其是利、诱层面，急不可耐地为自己贴上“我是被合纵对象”之“标签”后，美国某知名媒体放出的“美国总统特朗普可能在上任后100天内访问中国”这则消息，对两国而言，绝不是什么好消息。也就是说，特朗普还未正式上台就在拉拢俄罗斯和伊朗、暗示两国应与中国保持距离的同时，毫不掩饰与俄罗斯和伊朗客观上最大战略策应来源——中国，缓和关系。对此，俄罗斯和伊朗不觉得脊背发凉吗？

以俄罗斯为例，我们想要再次提醒俄罗斯决策层的是，目前暂时被“冻结”的“南亚破局”进程的核心就在于实质性瓦解中俄战略互信。

从2021年8月31日，美国完成从阿富汗撤军开始计算到今天，大约过去了3年半的时间；从2022年2月24日，俄乌战争爆发开始计算到今天，大约过去了3年的时间。在这过去的3年多时间里，美国对外政策的最大变化莫过于，从原来的“主动进攻”变为现在的“战略收缩”。尽管如此，从特朗普到拜登，再从拜登到特朗普，始终致力于实现“南亚破局”。所以，今天，特朗普玩“战略收缩”对俄罗斯而言，仍然瞄准的是其至今不肯实质性放弃的“阿富汗政策小九九”，这与2021年8月，拜登玩“阿富汗政策”有异曲同工之妙。

●在西方眼里，俄罗斯是挑战中国之前要克服的最后一个障碍，这一点俄罗斯心知肚明

再次强调，美国历届政府，在对外政策上有很强的连续性，比如，在试图消灭美国最大，也是最后的敌人——中国的问题上。只是不同政府的具体执行手段有所不同，这一点在特朗普和拜登之间显得尤其明显。以Tictok为例，拜登政府时期要封禁，但特朗普则反其道行事（至少表面上是这样）。值得一提的是，最开始要强行收购Tictok的恰恰就是特朗普，后来的拜登政府继承了这一方针，都想要将Tictok强抢在手。今天的特朗普在看到一味对Tictok用强不起作用，甚至极可能适得其反（Tictok或彻底放弃美国市场），于是改变策略，从原来的“以剿为主”变为“剿抚并行”。

“合纵连横”对中国来说也许是小儿科，但对俄罗斯而言恐怕是个新课题。自二战结束后，苏联与美国基于“雅尔塔体系”下“共管”地球到后来的俄罗斯，成为世界性大国的时间充其量70余年。对中国来说，应对特朗普“战略收缩”以及“合纵连横”策略，某种意义上说，比之以往美国的“主动进攻”策略更加容易把握。但对于俄罗斯来说恐怕甚至比之以往更加危险。用俄罗斯已经上当，或走在有一次要上当的路上形容毫不为过。

作为国际社会的核心成员之一，我们还是有必要对其加以提醒：如果俄罗斯敢于以牺牲中国核心利益为代价和西方媾和，必然被送上“被西方消化的快车道”。这次，美国当选总统特朗普急于缓和对华关系，而中国对此采取默认的态度，对俄罗斯而言就是提醒，甚至是警告！

在我们的观察与评估中，在美国当选总统特朗普宁可“不要脸”也要公开炒作急于缓和对华关系的背后，恐怕也在对俄罗斯、伊朗等准备或已经为自己贴上“我是被合纵国”的国家明确发出信号，特朗普治下的美国将会进行“战略收缩”并在此基础上通过“合纵连横”策略继续对抗中国。这一强化信号让俄罗斯和伊朗等国家小心思空前活泛，而就在他们心猿意马的时候，美国早已悄悄地准备对他们发动更为致命的攻击。以俄罗斯为例，尽管其不是美国的最大、最后的敌人，但却是美国有资格正式面对中国之前必须剪除的唯一障碍。

值得一提的是，2022年3月17日，也就是俄乌战争刚刚爆发，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫在接受媒体采访时就曾直言不讳地表示，在西方眼里，俄罗斯是挑战中国前要克服的最后障碍。

●中国对特朗普玩“合纵连横”可以欣然接受，对俄罗斯和伊朗的剧烈摇摆，更可以坦然面对

1月16日，中国常驻联合国副代表耿爽在联合国安理会会议上反驳美方对中国的无端栽赃，强调中国秉持和平发展外交政策，致力于维护国际和平与安全，为和平解决乌克兰危机做出积极贡献，呼吁美方承担国际责任。在我方代表就美方观点进行概括的三点中，第一点的回应尤为硬气。耿爽很直白在会场上说：“如果中国真的向俄罗斯提供军事补给，那战场的局势早就不是今天这个样子。”

在网友感叹中国的外交风格真变了，在联合国会议上头一次对美国人把话说得这么直白的背后，在我们看来，耿爽大使的直言不讳主要传递出如下一组强烈信号：

第一，再次强调，当年发动“百团大战”所取得的巨大政治成就——阻止国民党蒋介石集团向侵华日军企图妥协、投降的剧烈摇摆倾向。耿爽大使的讲话恐怕也有类似的作用。在我们的观察中，从2015年至今，国际社会或已至少三次以类似“百团大战”的方式阻止“俄向西方妥协、投降”；

第二，想必俄罗斯驻联合国代表听懂了耿爽大使的提醒，以至于只能尴尬地在那里低头玩手机；

第三，俄方似乎很要面子， 但面子从来不是乞求来的，不是谈出来的，更不是忍出来的，而是打出来的。更何况，作为国际社会的主要核心之一，中国通过成功发射“DF-31AG”已经为俄罗斯因“萨尔马特”洲际弹道导弹的发射失败找回了面子。再加上珠海航展和连续曝光两款“新型战机”，西方最后的心理防线随即崩塌，这意味着他们不仅核不行，常规更不行。这才有了以强硬派著称、曾叫嚣要在台湾海峡给中国呈现“地狱景观”的美国印太司令帕帕罗口中“美国爱好和平”这一让全世界忍俊不禁的说法。这更是特朗普还未上台就被迫炒作“战略收缩”的主要原因。对此，俄罗斯念过中国的好吗？

第四，在核威慑层面上，中、美、俄恐怕三家早就已经是处于千枚规模，且互相可以毁灭的状态。其中，中国最具核战争潜力。且中国是新生力量，而美俄很多核武器已经开始老化、开始失效。中国“打一发”是为了技术验证，而美、俄“打一发”则是为了证明“廉颇老矣，尚能饭否”；

第五，讽刺的是，在能力上，尤其在决心逐渐显示出外强中干，已经成为西方不遗余力削弱俄罗斯核威慑有效性的重要切入点，矛头直指实质性解除俄罗斯的核威慑。而失去核威慑这一最后安身立命之“护身符”的俄罗斯将万劫不复。白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科公开宣布美国有兴趣与白俄罗斯合作就是最新例证。对此，俄罗斯普京政府可曾考虑过俄罗斯国家长远利益与俄罗斯民族命运？

中国对特朗普玩“合纵连横”可以欣然接受。对俄罗斯和伊朗的剧烈摇摆，更可以坦然面对（我们认为，俄罗斯和伊朗的做法有伤中国人民的感情）。恐怕俄罗斯和伊朗就“合纵连横”的真正意思理解有误！如果做一个不甚恰当的比喻，将俄罗斯比作张国焘，把美国比作蒋介石。尽管我们不否认，张国焘、蒋介石在某些方面“颇具才能”，但认知不提升，格局不打开，恐怕也是枉然。而叛变革命者，从来没有好下场。

●“合纵连横”对中美而言都是有利有弊，问题在于，对谁利大弊少

说到对“合纵连横”的真正意思理解有误这个问题，我们不妨再举一个例子。

柬埔寨人民党主席、柬埔寨国王顾问团主席、柬埔寨参议院主席洪森，最近似乎萌生了“换个玩法”的心思（简单说就是，想要在“德崇-阜南运河项目”上“拿大头儿”。后来发现，“德崇-阜南运河项目”上的“泼天富贵”原来因中国而聚，后又因中国而散）。其子洪玛奈曾在美国西点军校获得学士学位，在纽约大学获得硕士学位，在英国布里斯托大学获得经济学博士学位，受西方文化影响较深，再加上柬埔寨长期狭隘的世界观，比如，柬埔寨社会在相当一段时间内认为中国的实力不及美国，恐怕对于“识时务者为俊杰”这句话和“合纵连横”的真正意思存在较大偏差。从来都是被美国打压的柬埔寨当局，对美国大玩“合纵连横”并开始拉拢柬埔寨这一最新变化感到受宠若惊。

柬埔寨的心态让我们想起了胡适。胡适这个人在骨子里就是“奴才”，曾几何时，口口声声“打倒封建主义”，却在接到清朝末代皇帝溥仪的电话后同样受宠若惊。所以，胡适其人的本质就是一条“慕强犬”，和汪精卫之流可谓心气相通。对柬埔寨而言，与我们对胡适后来加入臭名昭著的“低调俱乐部”类似，并不感到奇怪，所以在很早以前，在阐述“落水捞人”这一概念的时候，东方时事解读早就将柬埔寨列为“半个必救国家”。

柬埔寨的教训是俄罗斯需要吸取的。按特朗普这种玩法，全球经济加速滑向“满地鸡毛”是必然。中国是否在柬埔寨“落水”后“捞人”，具体看柬埔寨自己的认识和决心。认识越深刻，决心越坚定，中国“捞人”的速度就越快。否则，中国大可不管，让其先“呛几口水”再说！到那时候，柬埔寨再想要挖运河，就不是今天这个优厚条件了。

合纵连横这对特朗普来说自然是有弊有利。而远交近攻对弱小的国家来说，有好有坏。有的害怕被打，比如，伊朗。有的则期待大国提着礼物找上门来，比如，柬埔寨。还有的根据自己判断，做出谁强谁弱之评估，快速站队的，比如，日本、英国。这对中国来说自然也是有弊有利。问题在于，到底是弊端大还是利益大。这一点恐怕并不难回答：无论怎么玩，都需要时间！

●既然美国一点西方民主价值观的面子都不要，老欧洲自然也会有自己的想法

特朗普也是极右，极右的最大特点就是现实，尽管美帝去求小国有点掉价，但不是没办法了嘛，所以，拜登这样做了，特朗普很可能也这样做，也就是他们之间至少在表面上，尤其在对外问题上，还是有协调的。所以，特朗普这样调整不奇怪，有些国家有投机心态也不奇怪。

如果说美国前总统克林顿真的要有所后悔，那就后悔当年炸了中国驻南联盟大使馆吧。那一次，从上到下，真的炸醒了很多中国人。

想当年，有软件、芯片、专利、市场、金融，尤其是军事霸权在手上，美国人认为他们赢定了。如果他们能用拳头解决问题，绝不会和中国玩什么“远交近攻”，玩什么“合纵连横”，玩什么“南亚破局”。到了今天，对于“马斯克们”和“特朗普们”来说，也许借这个过程将自己利益集团的利益最大化才是他们最关心的。

日本首相石破茂也抓住特朗普要访华，抓紧访华。争相来北京。对此，美国当然不愿意看到。要知道，伊朗对中国可有可无，但日本是美国的核心盟友。但思来想去，特朗普也只能“哑巴吃黄连，有苦说不出”，谁让你自己要唱一出“合纵连横”的戏码呢。

最后需要补充一点的是，在我们看来，特朗普，至少其在金融上的政策比较容易预测，因为他们将自己所在利益集团“最后发大财”作为最高目标，为此不惜唱一出“合纵连横”的戏码，公开大肆炒作和中国缓和关系。这是一点西方民主价值观的面子都不要了。既然如此，恐怕老欧洲也会有自己的想法。比如，对德国来说，对于这样的美国，德国为什么要一跟到底呢？德国为什么不在电动车产业合作问题上，在中东问题上，也与中国缓和缓和关系呢？说不定，诸如，法、德、日等西方主要国家的政要们已经在思考如何抢在美国之前抓紧预订一张去北京的机票了。

【相关话题】

第7732期-在国际秩序或“礼崩乐坏“并走向世界版“战国”时期的背景下，为什么说俄罗斯最像战国时期的楚国？（2025-1-16）
第7736期-拜登援引艾森豪威尔1961年离任时对“军工联合体”崛起的警告，称“科技工业综合体”的崛起同样令人担忧意味着什么？（2025-1-17）
第7742期－合纵连横（3）：美国“新、老军工复合体”若“结婚”并“开枝散叶”，或可作为观察拜登与特朗普顺利交接的切入点之一（2025-1-19）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Monday, January 20, 2025, Issue No. 1162

U.S. President-elect Trump may visit China within 100 days of taking office, why is this not good news for Russia and Iran?

[Media Coverage]

On January 19, according to U.S. media reports, President-elect Donald Trump may visit China within 100 days of taking office.

【Discussion Summary】

● Trump's "strategic retraction" bears a striking resemblance to Biden's "Afghanistan withdrawal" in 2021

On January 19, a prominent U.S. media outlet reported that U.S. President Trump may visit China within 100 days of taking office.

In our view, this news report is a follow-up development to the fact that *****'s special representative and ******* were invited to attend the inauguration ceremony of U.S. President Trump in Washington, as well as the phone call between ******* and U.S. President-elect Trump. It is news of a waiting nature. It further validates the assessment by East Asia Times that if Trump really intends to implement the "U.S. strategic retraction" strategy and continue to confront China through a "divide and conquer" approach, he must first ease relations (relatively) with China to facilitate a "bipolar coexistence" between China and the United States.

It is worth mentioning that just as Trump signaled a potential "strategic retraction" by the United States and an attempt to continue confronting China through a "divide and conquer" approach, after receiving these signals, Russia and Iran eagerly labeled themselves as "potential allies" in terms of coercion, intimidation, and especially enticement and inducement. The news released by a prominent U.S. media outlet that "U.S. President Trump may visit China within 100 days of taking office" is by no means good news for these two countries. That is to say, even before Trump officially takes office, while trying to woo Russia and Iran and hinting that they should keep their distance from China, he is also making no secret of his intention to ease relations with China, which is objectively the largest strategic support for Russia and Iran. Don't Russia and Iran feel a chill down their spines about this?

Taking Russia as an example, we would like to remind the Russian decision-makers again that the core of the currently "frozen" "South Asian breakthrough" process lies in substantially eroding Sino-Russian strategic trust.

From August 31, 2021, when the United States completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, to today, approximately three and a half years have passed; from February 24, 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, to today, approximately three years have passed. During these past three-plus years, the biggest change in U.S. foreign policy has been a shift from "proactive offense" to "strategic retraction". Nevertheless, from Trump to Biden, and from Biden back to Trump, they have consistently been committed to achieving a "South Asian breakthrough". Therefore, today, Trump's "strategic retraction" still targets Russia's "Afghanistan policy ambitions", which it has not substantially abandoned, much like Biden's "Afghanistan policy" in August 2021.

● In the West's eyes, Russia is the last obstacle to be overcome before challenging China, a fact that Russia is well aware of.

Once again, successive U.S. administrations have demonstrated strong continuity in their foreign policies, particularly in their attempts to eliminate China, the U.S.'s greatest and final enemy. The specific tactics employed by different administrations may differ, as is particularly evident between Trump and Biden. Take TikTok as an example. The Biden administration sought to ban it, while Trump took the opposite approach (at least superficially). It's worth noting that it was Trump who initially pushed for the forced acquisition of TikTok, a policy later inherited by the Biden administration, both eager to seize control of the platform. Seeing that a heavy-handed approach towards TikTok was ineffective and could even backfire (with TikTok potentially abandoning the U.S. market altogether), Trump shifted his strategy from primarily "suppression" to a combination of "suppression and conciliation".

"Divide and conquer" may be child's play for China, but it's a new challenge for Russia. From the post-World War II "co-management" of the globe by the Soviet Union and the United States under the Yalta system to Russia's emergence as a global power, it's been just over 70 years. For China, dealing with Trump's "strategic retraction" and "divide and conquer" strategy is, in a sense, easier to manage than the U.S.'s previous "proactive offense" strategy. However, for Russia, it may be even more dangerous than before. It's not an exaggeration to say that Russia has already been deceived, or is on the path to being deceived once again.

As a key member of the international community, it's necessary for us to remind Russia: if it dares to make concessions to the West at the expense of China's core interests, it will surely be put on the "fast track to being consumed by the West". This time, U.S. President-elect Trump's eagerness to ease relations with China, coupled with China's tacit acceptance, serves as a reminder, or even a warning, to Russia.

In our observation and assessment, behind Trump's public eagerness to ease relations with China, even at the cost of "losing face", he is likely sending a clear signal to countries like Russia and Iran, which are preparing to or have already labeled themselves as "allies to be won over", that a Trump-led U.S. will undergo a "strategic retraction" and continue to confront China through a "divide and conquer" strategy. This reinforced signal has made countries like Russia and Iran more restless than ever, and while they are distracted, the U.S. has been quietly preparing to launch even more lethal attacks against them. Taking Russia as an example, although it is not the U.S.'s greatest and final enemy, it is the only obstacle that must be eliminated before the U.S. can formally confront China.

It's worth mentioning that on March 17, 2022, shortly after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov bluntly stated in an interview that in the West's eyes, Russia is the last obstacle to be overcome before challenging China.

● China can readily accept Trump's "divide and conquer" tactics and face the drastic swings of Russia and Iran with equanimity.

On January 16, China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Geng Shuang refuted baseless accusations against China at a UN Security Council meeting, emphasizing that China adheres to a foreign policy of peaceful development, is committed to maintaining international peace and security, makes positive contributions to the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis, and calls on the U.S. to assume its international responsibilities. In the three points summarizing the U.S. viewpoint presented by our representative, the first response was particularly forceful. Geng Shuang bluntly stated at the meeting, "If China had really provided military supplies to Russia, the situation on the battlefield would not be what it is today."

As netizens marvel at the change in China's diplomatic style, with such straightforward remarks made to the Americans at a UN meeting for the first time, we believe that Ambassador Geng Shuang's bluntness primarily conveyed the following strong messages:

First, it once again emphasizes the enormous political achievement of launching the "Hundred Regiments Offensive" – preventing the Kuomintang and Chiang Kai-shek group from compromising and surrendering to the invading Japanese army. Ambassador Geng Shuang's remarks likely serve a similar purpose. In our observation, the international community has used tactics similar to the "Hundred Regiments Offensive" at least three times since 2015 to prevent "Russia from compromising and surrendering to the West".

Second, presumably, the Russian representative to the UN understood Ambassador Geng Shuang's reminder, leaving them with nothing to do but awkwardly lower their heads and play with their phones.

Third, Russia seems to be very concerned about its image, but image is never begged for, negotiated, or endured; it is earned through action. Moreover, as one of the main cores of the international community, China has already restored Russia's image, tarnished by the failed launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, by successfully launching the "DF-31AG". Coupled with the Zhuhai Airshow and the consecutive unveiling of two "new fighter jets", the West's last psychological defense line immediately collapsed, meaning that they are inferior not only in nuclear capabilities but also in conventional forces. This led to the absurd claim by U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Paparo, known for his hawkish stance and threat to create a "hellscape" for China in the Taiwan Strait, that the U.S. "loves peace". This is also the main reason why Trump was forced to promote the "strategic retraction" even before taking office. Has Russia ever appreciated China's contributions?

Fourth, in terms of nuclear deterrence, China, the U.S., and Russia have likely already reached a scale of thousands, with the capability to mutually annihilate each other. Among them, China has the greatest potential for nuclear warfare. Furthermore, China is a new force, while many of the U.S. and Russia's nuclear weapons are aging and becoming ineffective. China's "launching one" is for technical verification, while the U.S. and Russia's "launching one" is to prove that "though old, they are still capable".

Fifth, ironically, the West has relentlessly targeted the effectiveness of Russia's nuclear deterrence, focusing on substantially disarming Russia of its nuclear deterrent, by highlighting its declining resolve and capabilities. Losing this final "talisman" for survival would be catastrophic for Russia. The public announcement by Belarusian President Lukashenko that the U.S. is interested in cooperating with Belarus is the latest example. Has the Russian government, led by Putin, ever considered the long-term interests of Russia and the fate of the Russian nation?

China can readily accept Trump's "divide and conquer" tactics and face the drastic swings of Russia and Iran with equanimity (we believe that the actions of Russia and Iran have hurt the feelings of the Chinese people). Perhaps Russia and Iran have misunderstood the true meaning of "divide and conquer"! To draw an inappropriate analogy, if Russia is compared to Zhang Guotao and the U.S. to Chiang Kai-shek, although we do not deny that Zhang Guotao and Chiang Kai-shek are "quite talented" in some aspects, without improved cognition and a broader perspective, their efforts may be in vain. And traitors to the revolution never end well.

●"Allying and Dividing" Has Both Pros and Cons for Both China and the US; the Question Lies in Who Benefits More and Suffers Less

Speaking of misunderstanding the true meaning of "allying and dividing," let's take another example.

Hun Sen, the President of the Cambodian People's Party, Chairman of the Advisory Council to the King of Cambodia, and President of the Senate of Cambodia, seems to have recently conceived the idea of "changing the game" (simply put, wanting to "take the lion's share" in the "De Chong-Fu Nan Canal Project"). Later, he discovered that the "immense wealth" from the "De Chong-Fu Nan Canal Project" originally gathered because of China and then dispersed because of China. His son, Hun Manet, who received a Bachelor's degree from the United States Military Academy at West Point, a Master's degree from New York University, and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Bristol in the UK, is deeply influenced by Western culture. Coupled with Cambodia's long-standing narrow worldview, such as the belief within Cambodian society for a considerable period that China's strength is inferior to that of the US, there is probably a significant deviation in their understanding of the phrase "a wise man knows his time" and the true meaning of "allying and dividing." The Cambodian authorities, who have always been suppressed by the US, feel flattered by the latest change in the US's strategy of "allying and dividing" and its attempt to woo Cambodia.

Cambodia's mindset reminds us of Hu Shi. Hu Shi is, at his core, a "sycophant." Once upon a time, he vocally advocated for "overthrowing feudalism," but was equally flattered when he received a call from Puyi, the last emperor of the Qing Dynasty. Therefore, the essence of Hu Shi is that of a "power-worshipping dog," sharing a similar mindset with individuals like Wang Jingwei. For Cambodia, it is not surprising that they have joined the infamous "Low-Key Club," similar to Hu Shi's later actions. Therefore, a long time ago, when discussing the concept of "rescuing drowning people," East Asia Times Analysis already classified Cambodia as a "half-must-save country."

Russia needs to learn from Cambodia's lesson. With Trump's approach, the global economy is inevitably heading towards chaos. Whether China will "rescue" Cambodia after it "drowns" depends on Cambodia's own understanding and determination. The deeper their understanding and the firmer their determination, the faster China will "rescue" them. Otherwise, China can simply ignore them and let them "choke on a few mouthfuls of water" first! By then, if Cambodia wants to dig a canal again, the conditions will not be as favorable as they are today.

"Allying and Dividing" naturally has both pros and cons for Trump. And for weak countries, "distant alliances and near attacks" can be both good and bad. Some fear being attacked, like Iran. Some anticipate major powers coming with gifts, like Cambodia. And some quickly take sides based on their own assessment of who is strong and who is weak, like Japan and the UK. This is also true for China, with both pros and cons. The question lies in whether the drawbacks outweigh the benefits. This is probably not difficult to answer: no matter how it's played, it takes time!

●Since the US Has Abandoned Any Pretense of Western Democratic Values, Old Europe Will Naturally Have Its Own Thoughts

Trump is also far-right, and the defining characteristic of the far-right is pragmatism. Although it's somewhat beneath the US to court small countries, they have no other choice. So, if Biden did it, Trump is likely to do the same. At least on the surface, especially on foreign issues, they are coordinated. Therefore, it's not surprising that Trump made such an adjustment, and it's not surprising that some countries have a speculative mindset.

If former US President Clinton really has any regrets, it should be regretting the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia. That incident truly awakened many Chinese people from top to bottom. Back then, with software, chips, patents, markets, finance, and especially military hegemony in their hands, Americans thought they had already won. If they could solve problems with their fists, they would never play "distant alliances and near attacks," "allying and dividing," or "breaking the deadlock in South Asia" with China. Today, for "Musks" and "Trumps," perhaps their greatest concern is maximizing the interests of their own interest groups through this process.

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Hirofumi also seized the opportunity of Trump's upcoming visit to China and rushed to visit Beijing. The US certainly doesn't want to see this. After all, Iran is dispensable to China, but Japan is a core ally of the US. However, after much thought, Trump can only "eat bitter gourd in silence and suffer in silence." After all, he chose to stage this "allying and dividing" drama himself.

Finally, it's worth adding that, in our view, Trump's policies, at least in finance, are relatively predictable. Their highest goal is to maximize the profits of their own interest group, even if it means staging a drama of "allying and dividing" and publicly hyping up a rapprochement with China. They have abandoned any pretense of Western democratic values. Given this, old Europe will naturally have its own thoughts. For example, why should Germany follow the US to the end? Why shouldn't Germany seek rapprochement with China on issues like electric vehicle industry cooperation and the Middle East? Perhaps policymakers in major Western countries like France, Germany, and Japan are already considering how to book a flight to Beijing before the US does.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7732: In the context of the international order potentially "collapsing" and moving towards a global version of the "Warring States period," why is Russia most like the State of Chu during the Warring States period? (January 16, 2025)
Issue 7736: Biden cites Eisenhower's 1961 warning about the rise of the "military-industrial complex" upon leaving office, stating that the rise of the "technology-industrial complex" is equally worrying. What does this mean? (January 17, 2025)
Issue 7742: Allying and Dividing (3): If the "new and old military-industrial complexes" in the US "marry" and "branch out," it could serve as an entry point for observing the smooth transition between Biden and Trump (January 19, 2025)

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