https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R2sZufFqvPEOeYZI-z0QfQ
2025年1月21日，星期二，第1163期 特朗普将TIKTOK禁令推迟时间从90天缩短至75天,向外界释放了怎样的信号？ 【媒体报道】 1月20日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，要求短视频社交媒体平台TikTok“不卖就禁用”的法律在未来75天内暂不执行。特朗普在行政令中称，他计划与美国政府相关部门负责人等商讨TikTok问题解决方案。在75天宽限期内，美国司法部不得依据“不卖就禁用”法律采取任何执法行动，也不得处罚任何不遵守该法律的实体。当地时间1月19日，TikTok在社交媒体平台发表声明称，正在恢复对美国用户的服务，并将与美国候任总统特朗普合作制定一项长期解决方案，让TikTok继续“留在美国”。 【讨论纪要】 ●在公开场合，“尊老爱幼”通常作为一个连贯词语被提及 世界卫生组织当地时间21日表示，对美国总统特朗普上任首日宣布美国将退出世卫组织表示遗憾。当地时间1月20日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署一项行政令，宣布美国退出世界卫生组织。 美国总统特朗普20日刚刚宣誓就任，便签署超过40个总统行政令，推动落实其在能源与气候变化、移民、贸易、“国会山骚乱”等方面的政策主张。在其中一个行政令中，特朗普更是一口气撤销了前总统拜登所签署的近80项总统行政令和备忘录。 相比于美国共和党，美国民主党显得相对理想主义一些。在政治生活中，对外，经常将“捍卫西方民主价值观”那套说辞挂在嘴边，参与联合国或国际组织、活动也相对积极，以此维护“美国世界第一”的形象；对内，更强调“既有秩序”，也就是更注重“尊老”的问题。与之相比，美国共和党更强调“新兴秩序”，也就是更注重“爱幼”的问题。 当然，在公开场合，在对外宣传层面，“尊老爱幼”通常作为一个连贯词语被提及。比如，在美国第47任总统就职典礼当日，特朗普没有按惯常打上代表共和党的红色领带，而是打了一条紫色领带。这一细节被美国媒体解读为“传递团结信号”。因为紫色是红色和蓝色的中和色，通常在美国政治被视为和解的信号。有趣的是，美国前国务卿希拉里在2016年发表败选演讲时，也身着紫色外套。 ●特朗普称要终结新能源车的补贴，对马斯克和特斯拉有着怎样的影响？ 此外，之所以特朗普上任伊始，其言行细节受到广泛注意，原因或就在于包括美国乃至西方内部的不同利益集团，都在密切关注特朗普上台后到底要做什么，是否对己方有利。对此，我们不妨举例说明。 美国总统特朗普在1月20日的就职演讲中宣布，将结束前拜登总统的“绿色新政”，撤销电动汽车“强制令”。美国前总统拜登曾要求汽车制造商从2027年开始将新型轻中型汽车的温室气体排放量减少一半，该规定迫使车企到2032年使电动汽车在轻型汽车中的产量占比为30%至56%。 也许有网友会问，特朗普称要终结新能源车的补贴，是否会对马斯克造成影响。在我们看来，特朗普当然是在强调传统能源车的重要性。这是对某些保守势力，比如，传统化石能源产业相关利益集团的既得利益进行维护。如果新能源和传统能源不是零和的关系，如果不是美国市场资源相对有限，恐怕特朗普都会要。这就是一种典型的“论功行赏”。尽管表面看马斯克因此有些“受伤”，但通过美国版“腾笼换鸟”，在限制，甚至彻底停止进口美国之外的电动车后，美国的电动车市场份额就留给了马斯克的特斯拉。所以，马斯克对于特朗普的这一政策自然是欣然接受。更何况，特朗普还在诸如太空探索、新军工复合体，尤其是加密货币等方面对马斯克大加许诺。以加密货币为例，即便是“特朗普们”，也有重大利益关切内嵌其中。 ●特朗普在TikTok问题上的最新说法，首先在于美国总统特朗普释放希望尽快访华之强烈信号 除了在气候问题、新能源车补贴问题等方面做出的调整，我们也注意到特朗普在TikTok问题上的最新说法。 我们注意到，1月20日，美国总统特朗普将TikTok禁令推迟时间从90天缩短至75天的新闻报道。 在我们的观察与评估中： 第一，首先在于美国总统特朗普释放希望尽快访华之强烈信号，且不要晚于2025年第二季度； 第二，在“第一”的基础上，这一强烈信号中内嵌有经济问题，或者更干脆一点说，内嵌有金融问题。如果特朗普想要尽早且相对顺利的大规模、公开“启动印钞机”，不仅访华行程最好不要晚于2025年第二季度，而且要尽量争取中国不去干扰、破坏之态度； 第三，在“第二”的基础上，这一强烈信号中也会内嵌有政治问题。暗示方方面面，基于“合纵连横”之“中美两强并立”的局面也好，基于“远交进攻”之“远交”也罢，特朗普口中的“美国战略收缩”不是说说而已。 需要补充的是，在以上三点的基础上，未来一段时间，中国周边地区的一些国家和原本与中国较为靠近的一些国家，如：俄罗斯、伊朗、马来西亚、缅甸、巴基斯坦，包括中亚五国在内，其对外政策或将出现相对不利于中国的摇摆；与此同时，原本和美国较为靠近的一些国家或区域性国际组织，如：欧盟、英国、日本、韩国、越南、菲律宾等，其对外政策或将出现相对不利于美国的摇摆。 不同的国家由于国情不同、战略处境、既定地区或全球战略目标、认知层次等不同，手中的筹码自然各不相同，但并不妨碍这些国家或区域性国际组织的当局，或出于所代表的既得利益集团私利之短视考虑，或出于国家利益之长远考虑，基于各自对“合纵连横”与“远交近攻”的认知和理解，就其对外政策进行调整，甚至反复调整，从而呈现出，时而靠近美国去制衡中国，时而靠近中国去制衡美国的复杂特征。 ●国际局势真的朝这一预测的方向发展，对中国而言，首先要做的两件事就是…… 不难想象的是，当世界范围内诸多国家、区域性国际组织纷纷开启“合纵连横”模式后，现有的，本已非常脆弱的，由西方创立并主导至今的世界经济秩序、国际贸易体系必将更加迅速的走向全面解体，这意味着全球经济之“满地鸡毛”将快速滑向“深水区”。若如此，距离中国正式开启“最低经济内循环”就为期不远了。当然，那个时候的美国或已经开启“战略收缩”进程并以“更深度殖民美洲”为依托开启“美国版最低经济内循环”。而在世界范围内，首先基于非传统安全层面，“落水”进程将正式开启。随着这一进程的开启，在“一定阶段”后，中国基于非传统安全层面，更基于传统安全层面之“捞人”过程或将随之开启。 此时此刻，在“合纵连横”问题上，也许目的会变得相对单一，那就是“如何解决‘肚子问题’”。在此前提下，那些只为既得利益集团私利之短视考虑的当局、政府或将逐一成为历史。以柬埔寨为例，通过“落水捞人”的整个过程，那些抱有或这样或那样“小心思、小九九、小算盘”、在中美之间反复横跳的当局、政府恐怕不再会被柬埔寨人民接受。 若国际局势真的朝这一预测的方向发展，对中国而言，首先要做的两件事是：第一，做好自己，保护好自己。且在“一定阶段”内，“两耳不闻窗外事，一心只做‘内循环’”；第二，“一定阶段”内，本质上，其他人爱怎么玩怎么玩，中国大可坦然面对。友情提醒的是，基于中国古代战国时期的历史，“合纵连横”稍有不慎就会万劫不复。美国欲利用“战略收缩”策略去“画饼”，激发原本和中国较为靠近国家的“小心思、小九九、小算盘”进而图谋通过“合纵连横”继续对抗中国。对中国来说，又何尝不也在利用美国“战略收缩”——美国之绝对和相对实力早已今非昔比，即便与特朗普第一任期时候的美国相比也是如此，美国世界霸权，尤其金融霸权即将崩塌之现实，激发原本和美国较为靠近国家的“求生欲望”？两者相比，到底对谁利大弊少，不言自明。 需要强调的是，能够“捞人”是一种实力，尤其是绝对实力的具体展现，中国有解放军强大的战争能力，有统一成熟的大市场，有蓬勃发展的新兴产业，有不断整合的各类产业链，有AI加持的超强制造力，中国已经立于不败之地。值得一提的是，“落水”的方式除了基于非传统安全层面，也就是经济、金融层面外，也包括基于传统安全层面的方式，比如，政变、社会动乱，甚至局部战争。一旦出现这种情况，在“捞人”的过程中，更能凸显中国绝对实力的强悍。 ●俄罗斯到目前为止对西方仍抱有不切实际政治幻想的主要原因在于…… 需要补充的是，我们还是要提一下俄罗斯对外政策（对华政策）的摇摆问题。 在我们看来，俄罗斯仍想重温当年“美、苏共掌控世界秩序”的旧梦是俄罗斯到目前为止对西方仍保有不切实际政治幻想的主要原因之一。在俄罗斯看来，通过和美国之间所谓“相互承认对方领土扩张”进一步巩固“阿富汗政策小九九”的存续。所谓“巩固”的意思就在于，一方面，借中国的战略策应最终赢得俄乌战争的胜利。也就是借中国之力有效遏制西方；另一方面，俄罗斯会将“相互承认对方领土扩张”这一模式拷贝到中亚、南亚。也就是借西方之力有效遏制中国。 值得一提的是，在特朗普眼中，吞并格陵兰岛也有遏制中国潜在影响力的意图。也就是说，在我们看来，某种意义上说，中国对格陵兰岛的影响虽然并不显性、但潜力巨大。与之相比，中国对巴拿马运河的影响虽然显性，但更基于现实。有趣的是，特朗普反而在巴拿马问题上指责中国的言辞更为激烈，在格陵兰岛问题上则近乎只字不提。 此外，在俄罗斯的认知中，当年，在美苏共管地球的“美好时代”，美国因越战失利欲施行“战略收缩”策略，找的是中国。那么今天，中美两强，美国再次欲施行“战略收缩”策略，自然只能找俄罗斯。这是俄罗斯到目前为止对西方仍保有不切实际政治幻想的主要原因之二。不过，在我们看来，今天的俄罗斯与当年的新中国还是有本质区别的，这个本质区别就在于，当年尼克松在访华前向中国传递了“欲协助中国抗击苏联威胁”的明确信号，结果遭到毛泽东主席的坚决回怼——如果美国真的是这样想的，尼克松大可不要访华。结果，深知“遇到高手”的尼克松，立刻收回了这层意思，至少在表面上做出一副谦卑的姿态，并于1972年2月访华。对比今天的俄罗斯，可有这种智慧、魄力和格局对早已将“远离中国”作为与俄罗斯“缓和关系”之条件的美国坚持原则，说“不”吗？ 最后需要强调的是，大家不妨继续观察，有意被美国合纵者或意欲玩合纵连横者，尤其是欧美国家政要，比如，欧盟、法国、德国、日本、英国等是否会抢在特朗普访华之前访华。 【相关话题】 第7737期-为什么俄伊两国在美方明确发出“或将战略收缩”之强烈信号后，如此迅速地签署了全面战略伙伴关系条约？（2025-1-17） 声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
Tuesday, January 21, 2025, Issue No. 1163 Trump Shortens TikTok Ban Postponement from 90 Days to 75 Days,What Signal Is He Sending to the Outside World? [Media Coverage] On January 20, US President Trump signed an executive order postponing the implementation of the "sell or be banned" law for the short-video social media platform TikTok for 75 days. In the executive order, Trump stated that he plans to discuss solutions to the TikTok issue with heads of relevant US government departments. During the 75-day grace period, the US Department of Justice is prohibited from taking any enforcement actions or penalizing any entities that do not comply with the law. On January 19, local time, TikTok issued a statement on its social media platform stating that it is resuming services for US users and will work with President-elect Trump to develop a long-term solution that allows TikTok to "stay in the US". 【Discussion Summary】 ● In public, "respect for the elderly and care for the young" is usually mentioned as a coherent phrase. On January 21, local time, the World Health Organization expressed regret over US President Trump's announcement on his first day in office that the US will withdraw from the WHO. On January 20, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order at the White House announcing the US withdrawal from the World Health Organization. Just after being sworn in on January 20, US President Trump signed more than 40 executive orders to promote his policy initiatives in energy and climate change, immigration, trade, and the "Capitol Hill riot". In one of the executive orders, Trump even revoked nearly 80 executive orders and memorandums signed by former President Biden in one fell swoop. Compared to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party in the US appears to be relatively idealistic. In political life, they often invoke the rhetoric of "defending Western democratic values" when dealing with the outside world and actively participate in the United Nations or international organizations and activities to maintain the image of "America as the world's number one". Domestically, they emphasize the "existing order", which means they pay more attention to "respect for the elderly". In contrast, the Republican Party in the US emphasizes the "emerging order", which means they pay more attention to "care for the young". Of course, in public and in external propaganda, "respect for the elderly and care for the young" is usually mentioned as a coherent phrase. For example, on the inauguration day of the 47th President of the United States, Trump did not wear the red tie that traditionally represents the Republican Party, but instead wore a purple tie. This detail was interpreted by the US media as a "signal of unity". Because purple is a neutral color between red and blue, it is often seen as a sign of reconciliation in American politics. Interestingly, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also wore a purple jacket when she delivered her concession speech in 2016. ● What impact will Trump's termination of subsidies for new energy vehicles have on Musk and Tesla? Furthermore, the reason why Trump's words and actions have received widespread attention since he took office is that different interest groups within the US and even the West are closely watching what Trump will do after taking office and whether it will be beneficial to them. We can illustrate this with an example. In his inaugural speech on January 20, US President Trump announced that he will end former President Biden's "Green New Deal" and revoke the "mandate" for electric vehicles. Former US President Biden had required automakers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from new light and medium-duty vehicles by half starting in 2027, a regulation that would force automakers to produce electric vehicles accounting for 30% to 56% of light vehicles by 2032. Some netizens may ask whether Trump's termination of subsidies for new energy vehicles will affect Musk. In our view, Trump is emphasizing the importance of traditional energy vehicles, which is to protect the vested interests of certain conservative forces, such as interest groups related to the traditional fossil energy industry. If new and traditional energy are not a zero-sum game, and if the US market resources were relatively unlimited, Trump would probably want both. This is a typical "reward based on merit". Although it may seem that Musk is somewhat "hurt" by this on the surface, through a US version of "replacing the old with the new", by restricting or even completely stopping the import of electric vehicles from outside the US, the market share of electric vehicles in the US will be left to Musk's Tesla. Therefore, Musk naturally welcomes Trump's policy. Moreover, Trump has made many promises to Musk in areas such as space exploration, the new military-industrial complex, and especially cryptocurrency. Taking cryptocurrency as an example, even "Trumps" have significant vested interests embedded therein. ● Trump's Latest Remarks on TikTok Signal a Strong Desire to Visit China Soon In addition to adjustments made on climate issues and new energy vehicle subsidies, we have also noticed Trump's latest remarks on TikTok. On January 20th, we observed news reports that U.S. President Trump shortened the postponement of the TikTok ban from 90 days to 75 days. In our observation and assessment: Firstly, U.S. President Trump has signaled a strong desire to visit China as soon as possible, preferably no later than the second quarter of 2025. Secondly, based on the first point, this strong signal embeds economic, or more bluntly, financial issues. If Trump wants to start "printing money" on a large scale and openly as soon as possible and relatively smoothly, not only should his visit to China preferably not be later than the second quarter of 2025, but he should also strive for China's non-interference and non-sabotage attitude. Thirdly, based on the second point, this strong signal also embeds political issues. It hints that, whether based on the "alliance and counter-alliance" strategy in a situation where "China and the U.S. stand as two major powers" or the "distant alliance and nearby attack" strategy, Trump's so-called "U.S. strategic retraction" is not just empty talk. It should be added that, based on the above three points, in the coming period, some countries in China's neighboring regions and some countries originally relatively close to China, such as Russia, Iran, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, including the five Central Asian countries, may experience swings in their foreign policies that are relatively unfavorable to China. At the same time, some countries or regional international organizations originally relatively close to the U.S., such as the EU, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines, may experience swings in their foreign policies that are relatively unfavorable to the U.S. Different countries have different national conditions, strategic situations, established regional or global strategic goals, cognitive levels, etc., and naturally have different bargaining chips. However, this does not prevent the authorities of these countries or regional international organizations, whether out of short-sighted considerations for the vested interests of the groups they represent or out of long-term considerations for national interests, from adjusting, or even repeatedly adjusting, their foreign policies based on their respective understandings of "alliance and counter-alliance" and "distant alliance and nearby attack," thereby presenting a complex characteristic of sometimes aligning with the U.S. to counterbalance China and sometimes aligning with China to counterbalance the U.S. ● If the international situation really develops in this predicted direction, the first two things China should do are... It is not hard to imagine that when many countries and regional international organizations worldwide start the "alliance and counter-alliance" mode, the already fragile world economic order and international trade system established and dominated by the West will rapidly move towards comprehensive disintegration. This means that the "chaotic" global economy will quickly slide into the "deep water zone." If this happens, it won't be long before China officially launches its "minimum economic internal circulation." Of course, by then, the U.S. may have already started the process of "strategic retraction" and launched its "U.S. version of minimum economic internal circulation" based on "deeper colonization of the Americas." And worldwide, firstly based on the non-traditional security level, the "drowning" process will officially begin. With the initiation of this process, after a "certain stage," China may start the process of "rescuing people" based on the non-traditional security level and even the traditional security level. At this moment, regarding the issue of "alliance and counter-alliance," the purpose may become relatively single, that is, "how to solve the 'food problem'." Under this premise, authorities and governments that only consider the short-sighted interests of vested interest groups will become a thing of the past one by one. Taking Cambodia as an example, through the entire process of "rescuing drowning people," those authorities and governments that have various "ulterior motives, schemes, and calculations" and repeatedly jump between China and the U.S. will probably no longer be accepted by the Cambodian people. If the international situation really develops in this predicted direction, the first two things China should do are: Firstly, do well and protect oneself. And within a "certain stage," "pay no attention to what's happening outside and focus solely on 'internal circulation'." Secondly, within a "certain stage," essentially, China can calmly face whatever others do. A friendly reminder is that, based on the history of the Warring States period in ancient China, "alliance and counter-alliance" can lead to disaster if not handled carefully. The U.S. intends to use the "strategic retraction" strategy to "draw a pie in the sky," stimulating the "ulterior motives, schemes, and calculations" of countries originally relatively close to China and then seeking to continue confronting China through "alliance and counter-alliance." For China, isn't it also taking advantage of the U.S. "strategic retraction"—given that the U.S.'s absolute and relative strength is no longer what it used to be, even compared to when Trump was first in office, and the reality that U.S. world hegemony, especially financial hegemony, is about to collapse—to stimulate the "survival desire" of countries originally relatively close to the U.S.? Comparing the two, it is self-evident which one has more advantages and fewer disadvantages. It should be emphasized that being able to "rescue people" is a demonstration of strength, especially absolute strength. China has the powerful war capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, a unified and mature large market, booming emerging industries, continuously integrated various industrial chains, and AI-empowered super manufacturing capabilities. China is already invincible. It is worth mentioning that "drowning" can occur not only at the non-traditional security level, such as the economic and financial levels, but also at the traditional security level, such as coups, social unrest, and even local wars. Once such situations arise, China's absolute strength will be even more prominently demonstrated in the process of "rescuing people." ● The main reason why Russia still harbors unrealistic political illusions about the West to this day lies in... It's worth mentioning that we should also address the issue of Russia's vacillating foreign policy (including its policy towards China). In our view, one of the main reasons why Russia still holds unrealistic political illusions about the West is its desire to relive the old dream of the "US-Soviet co-domination of the world order." Russia believes that by engaging in a so-called "mutual recognition of each other's territorial expansions" with the United States, it can further solidify its "Afghanistan policy calculations." By "solidifying," we mean that, on the one hand, Russia aims to ultimately win the Russia-Ukraine war with strategic support from China, effectively containing the West with China's help. On the other hand, Russia intends to replicate the "mutual recognition of each other's territorial expansions" model in Central and South Asia, effectively containing China with the help of the West. It's worth noting that in Trump's eyes, annexing Greenland also serves the purpose of curbing China's potential influence. That is to say, in our opinion, to some extent, although China's influence on Greenland is not explicit, it has great potential. In contrast, although China's influence on the Panama Canal is explicit, it is more based on reality. Interestingly, Trump's rhetoric against China was more vehement on the Panama issue, while he hardly mentioned the Greenland issue. Furthermore, in Russia's perception, during the "golden era" when the US and the Soviet Union co-managed the globe, the US sought China when it wanted to implement a "strategic retraction" due to its defeat in the Vietnam War. Therefore, today, with China and the US as the two major powers, if the US once again seeks to implement a "strategic retraction," it naturally would only turn to Russia. This is the second main reason why Russia still holds unrealistic political illusions about the West. However, in our opinion, there is a fundamental difference between today's Russia and new China back then. This fundamental difference lies in the fact that before his visit to China, Nixon conveyed to China a clear signal of "wanting to assist China in resisting the Soviet threat," which was firmly rejected by Chairman Mao Zedong. Mao said that if that was really the US's intention, Nixon didn't need to visit China. As a result, Nixon, realizing he had "met his match," immediately withdrew this idea and at least superficially adopted a humble attitude, visiting China in February 1972. Compared to today's Russia, does it have the wisdom, courage, and vision to stand firm and say "no" to the US, which has already made "distancing from China" a condition for "easing relations" with Russia? Finally, it's important to emphasize that everyone should continue to observe whether politicians from European and American countries, especially those from the EU, France, Germany, Japan, and the UK, who are interested in being courted by the US for a united front strategy or who intend to play the game of diplomacy, will visit China before Trump's potential visit. [Related Topics] Issue 7737 - Why did Russia and Iran sign a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty so quickly after the US clearly signaled a potential "strategic retraction"? (January 17, 2025)
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