2025年2月14日，星期五，第1179期

从美前总统尼克松访华这一历史事件角度观察美总统特朗普或将访俄

【媒体报道】

2月12日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已经向乌克兰提供了3500亿美元，乌克兰同意“确保”偿还美国提供的资金。特朗普称，美国财长贝森特将前往乌克兰，确保美国能以某种形式收回这笔钱。

2月12日，俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普通电话后，俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫说，两国元首在通话中同意组织两人的会晤，普京邀请特朗普访问莫斯科。 而特朗普12日说，他将在不久的将来与普京会面，地点可能会是沙特阿拉伯。特朗普当天在白宫与在场记者谈及他与普京会面的安排。特朗普说：“我将主要通过电话与普京总统沟通。我们预计最终会见面。事实上，我们预计他（普京）会到这里（美国）来，而且我会去那里（俄罗斯），我们也有可能在沙特阿拉伯见面。”

2月13日，美国总统特朗普宣布，俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国高级代表将在慕尼黑安全会议期间举行会晤。

【讨论纪要】

●目前阶段，特朗普政府的对外政策仍然运行在“首要服务内政”之上

2月13日，美国总统特朗普宣布，俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国高级代表将在慕尼黑安全会议期间举行会晤。

目前阶段，特朗普政府的对外政策仍然运行在“首要服务内政”之上。以乌克兰问题为例，特朗普政府似乎有意以牺牲乌克兰利益为代价，甚至默认俄罗斯有效重返叙利亚，换取俄罗斯在“南亚破局”进程上的配合。当然，目前美俄双方仅表示出愿意进一步合作的意愿，具体落实还有很远距离。甚至能否最终落实更要画上一个大大的问号。

值得一提的是，‌2024年慕尼黑安全峰会俄罗斯没有参加‌，原因是被主办方拒之门外。而现在，在特朗普的撮合下，俄罗斯终于可以与乌克兰一起参会了。而在我们的观察中，特朗普拉俄罗斯与乌克兰一道参会的主要意图之一在于施压欧盟。而就在前几天，那场美国被彻底孤立的AI峰会刚在巴黎结束。

●特朗普发出的仅“封皮”就价值2800亿美元的“大红包”

我们注意到了特朗普在当地时间2月12日的一段发言。特朗普称，美国已经向乌克兰提供了3500亿美元，乌克兰同意“确保”偿还美国提供的资金。特朗普表示，美国财长贝森特将前往乌克兰，确保美国能以某种形式收回这笔钱。

此前，特朗普的女儿伊万卡“重出江湖”为父办事，特朗普本人更是直言没有可以信任的人。

特朗普的言行让特朗普阵营内的其他人，如：马斯克、万斯、贝索斯、卢比奥等感到非常尴尬。不难看出，至少特朗普阵营内的一部分人，特朗普是不信任的。以马斯克为例，在其所谓第17次修改遗嘱的内容中，基于“核捆绑”思维，一旦马斯克身遭不测，“可能报复对象”既包括特朗普本人，也包括“特朗普们”。

在西方有句谚语，虚假的和平比真实的战争更危险。放在特朗普身上，则可以引申为虚假的盟友比真实的敌人更危险。显然，这种无法分辨敌我的明争暗战是死路一条。必须改变对策。

古人云，天下熙熙，皆为利来；天下攘攘，皆为利往。在特朗普眼中，也许这个“利”字是解开目前危局的唯一钥匙。如果能够想办法，哪怕是临时办法让特朗普的“敌人们”愿意相信特朗普能够让他们继续赚钱，比如，在金融游戏中继续大赚特赚，这些特朗普的“敌人”或可以转变为特朗普的“盟友”，即便是阶段性的转变，对特朗普而言也是有意义的。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基此前表示，美国提供的2000亿美元中乌克兰只收到了760亿美元。而特朗普今天一开口就是3500亿。按特朗普的账单粗略计算，其中有将近2800亿的账单不知所终。

在我们的观察中，2800亿美元这不大不小的“失踪账单”，足可以被特朗普利用，将其作为“化敌为友”的引子（如果我们把2800亿比作特朗普发出红包的“封皮”，其中塞着的，仅乌克兰的稀土资源就足足价值20万亿美元），比如，传统的美国军工复合体。

甚至这还不是全部，特朗普政府在巴以问题上支持以色列的强硬立场（在一定阶段内，树敌甚多的以色列需要美国继续大量提供军火）与美国副总统万斯向欧洲国家催讨的“保护费”（由于3年俄乌战争的消耗，欧洲国家继续补充军火，这些提高的北约军费最终会转变为给美国军工复合体的“订单”）等都预示着2800亿美元只不过是新一场“盛宴”的“开胃菜”，通过这样一系列的操作，就算不能“化敌为友”，至少也可以稀释对方的敌意。

●这份可以被称作为“马歇尔计划V2.0”的“盛宴”就这样经特朗普之手，呼之欲出了

就乌克兰问题，东方时事解读早有评估，美国国家利益在这场旷日持久的战争中没有退路，但西方资本利益可以有“退出机制”。

对于牺牲乌克兰利益，西方资本利益欣然接受，尤其借助制造停战预期再去炒作一波，仅仅这20万亿美元经过“煎炸烹煮”（金融衍生品交易）就可以“膨胀”为50万亿，甚至100万亿美元，再撒上浓浓的一层称为“乌克兰重建计划”乃至“欧洲重建计划”的“调味料”，这份可以被称作为“马歇尔计划V2.0”的“盛宴”就这样经特朗普之手，呼之欲出了。

不使用蛮力显然是内斗的高明手段，但能不能成？关键在于如何“膨胀”这个“大红包”。当然，在我们看来，“膨胀”的过程不能太真，更不能太假。前者等同于找中国帮忙，后者则不会起到预期缓和内部矛盾（首先是美国资本利益层面）的作用。“画饼”的关键还在于如何讲好“金融游戏”的故事，何况他们现在只会玩、只愿玩“金融游戏”，除此之外，恐怕他们对于其他的故事不感兴趣。

●特朗普政府不惜损害美国长远国家利益，甚至部分资本利益，外交政策运行在“首要服务内政”之上的又一经典案例

西方资本利益在俄乌战争问题上可以有“退出机制”，但对于欧盟而言，尤其是欧洲国家利益而言，恐怕不能接受俄罗斯最终获胜的俄乌战争。

既然如此，特朗普无非将“敬酒”变为“罚酒”，逼着欧盟接受。此前，泽连斯基还在就美国援助乌克兰的资金问题说三道四，后脚，特朗普就开始拿乌克兰总统泽连斯基的合法性大做文章，敦促乌克兰尽快举行总统选举。有消息称，乌军前司令，乌克兰驻英国大使扎卢日内在乌克兰公民中的信任评级中位居第一。如果举行选举，他的支持率高达72%。而泽连斯基的支持率仅有49%。在我们看来，如果泽连斯基真的被俄美联手贴上“伪总统”的“标签”，对泽连斯基来说，恐怕账得认，那部分记录“外部账目”的“百官行述”即便是真的，恐怕最终也是“假作真时真亦假，无为有处有还无”！于是，泽连斯基怂了，变身为特朗普手中牵着的“哈巴狗”，一摇一摆地前往慕尼黑参会去了。

对欧盟而言，2024年被拒之门外的俄罗斯，这次不仅在美国的邀请下重返慕尼黑安全峰会，而且乌克兰总统泽连斯基在美国的威逼利诱之下对美国唯命是从。这还不算，最让欧盟感到恼火的是，在欧盟的地盘儿上（德国慕尼黑），原本乌克兰问题相关“四方会谈”（美、欧、俄、乌）变为了三方（美、俄、乌），真可谓是可忍孰不可忍！

特朗普这样做对欧盟传递的信号非常明显，乌克兰问题就这样处理，欧盟同意也得同意，不同意也得同意！否则，欧盟能否接受一个美国完全放任不管，让俄罗斯获得前所未有之大胜利的俄乌战争？

需要补充的是，这也是美国敲诈欧盟增加北约军费的理由。也就是说，不交“保护费”美国就把欧盟丢去“喂熊”。显然，特朗普在坚定践行那句名言：做美国的敌人是危险的，但是做美国的盟友则是致命的。不尽最大可能压榨“美国最大的盟友”——欧盟（欧洲国家利益和部分欧洲资本利益），特朗普又哪儿来的资源去平衡内部的利益纷争（牺牲美国国家利益，包括乌克兰在内的欧洲国家利益，部分欧洲资本利益缓和，哪怕是阶段性缓和美国资本利益内部矛盾）？不难看出，这也是目前特朗普政府不惜损害美国长远国家利益，甚至部分资本利益，外交政策运行在“首要服务内政”的又一经典案例。

●美国合纵的对象是俄罗斯，中国连横的对象是欧盟，两下对比，美国是亏了，还是赚了？

对于可能引发的欧盟的怒火，特朗普政府也并非毫无对策。

在此前我们的讨论中，谈到了目前欧盟在叙利亚问题后续发展的积极介入问题，这显然与巴黎AI行动峰会上，在国际社会战略策应下，欧盟的再度“雄心万丈”投射到传统安全层面，比如，叙利亚问题密切相关。而在当前叙利亚局势后续发展进程中，有一个国家游刃有余，异常活跃，显得非常独特，这个国家就是海湾阿拉伯国家之首——沙特。

在我们看来，特朗普称，“我将主要通过电话与普京总统沟通。我们预计最终会见面。事实上，我们预计他（普京）会到这里（美国）来，而且我会去那里（俄罗斯），我们也有可能在沙特阿拉伯见面。”恐怕也是看中了沙特的“非常独特”之处。所谓“独特之处”就在于，对于急于介入叙利亚局势后续发展的欧盟要与沙特搞好关系，急于有效重返叙利亚的俄罗斯要与沙特搞好关系，急于维持在中东影响力的美国更要与沙特搞好关系。

可以说，如此备受瞩目，让沙特非常受用。沙特从来没有在国际局势的复杂演化进程中起到如此重要的作用，具有如此之大的影响力。但沙特很清楚，这一切都是其背后站着的那位“无冕之王”赋予的，那就是中国。中国没有缺席，而对于美国，欧盟和俄罗斯来说，叙利亚问题后续发展这桌“麻将”，虽然中国没有上场，但到处都是中国的影子。而中国也通过站在沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家的背后对叙利亚局势后续发展施加独特的且无可替代的重要影响。

需要补充的是，此前在我们的初步评估中，美俄有可能在叙利亚问题上有所靠近得到进一步验证。显然，对于欧盟急切想要打通的那条，从中东，途经土耳其，绕开俄罗斯，更摆脱美国控制的能源管线，的确让美俄于叙利亚问题后续发展这桌“麻将”中，找到了更多“共同语言”。欧盟想要打通这条能源管线，不仅要问问美国答不答应，更要问问俄罗斯答不答应。

在这个问题上能帮欧盟的，表面看是以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家，实际上是站在他们背后的中国以及“一带一路”倡议。对欧盟来说，是不是和中国搞好关系？这显然也是特朗普上台伊始就大肆炒作并一定程度开始施行的“合纵连横，远交近攻”的一种具体表现，只不过美国合纵的对象是俄罗斯，中国连横的对象是欧盟，两相对比，美国是亏了，还是赚了？不言自明。

●如果俄罗斯真的实现了“有效重返”叙利亚，恐怕美俄之间的“短暂合作”会立刻停止

当然，特朗普和普京在这桌“麻将”之上玩得可谓不亦乐乎。

对普京而言，如果特朗普的那个“有一天乌克兰会变为俄罗斯”的“许诺”成真，乌克兰变成俄罗斯的一部分，那岂不也是“大胜中的大胜”（类似目前特朗普不遗余力帮助内塔尼亚胡获取的“大胜中的大胜”）？对此，那位曾经公开自证“渣女”的德国前总理默克尔可谓“直呼内行”——我不过是在明斯克协议上骗了普京，而你（特朗普）却用整个乌克兰可能变为俄罗斯去骗普京！

关键在于，普京似乎看上去还很兴奋！似乎俄罗斯又一次愿意相信其自己愿意相信的事情，尽管这件事在诸如默克尔之流眼中看上去都是那么不靠谱。谁让俄罗斯的“阿富汗政策小九九”再度泛滥成灾，警惕中国之心远超仍在库尔斯克之俄罗斯“纯血”领土上继续肆虐的乌克兰（北约）士兵呢？

当然，也不排除俄罗斯基于特朗普一切外交政策均优先服务内政这一阶段性特点，顺势而为，先把眼前能吃下去的吃下去再说的可能性。正应了中国民间的一句俏皮话“铁拐李把眼挤，你糊弄我，我糊弄你”。不难想象，如果俄罗斯真的实现有效重返叙利亚，恐怕美俄之间的“短暂合作”会立刻停止。这个时候俄罗斯会再次变为美国的敌人，美国在叙利亚问题上的处境比阿萨德政权倒台之前会变得更加被动，至少那个时候的叙利亚还没有今天欧盟的强势介入，而由于沙特为首的海外阿拉伯国家同样积极介入叙利亚局势后续发展，那么美国在叙利亚问题上就既要遏制欧盟，又要阻碍俄罗斯，更要防着中国。对美国，尤其是美国国家利益而言，在客观效果上等同于将局面向更接近重新激活“第四轮配列组合”的方向推动。

此外，在我们看来，俄乌战争想要彻底解决并不容易，即便停战也是暂时停战。因为乌克兰问题的核心问题没有解决，欧，俄在乌克兰的利益，美国无法摆平。和中东一样，即便按住，也是暂时按住。问题在于，如何应对，比如，在中东问题上，站在以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家背后的中国。到了最后，如果特朗普画的饼不能变为切切实实的利益，当“红巨星效应”进入末期开始坍缩后，昨天画的饼越大，今日矛盾爆发得越猛烈。

●今天的美国总统特朗普是否也想通过访俄淘换一张访华的机票呢？大家不妨拭目以待！

综上讨论，我们认为，特朗普政府总体上的主要意图在于：

第一，通过非传统安全层面或传统安全层面，在一定程度上执行“合纵连横，远交近攻”策略，为以对华、对欧、对俄关系为主要应对战略方向的美国对外政策寻找一个“平衡点”，或“最大公约数”；

第二，在“第一”的基础上，为美国对外政策寻找一个“平衡点”，或“最大公约数”的主要目的仍在于更好地服务于美国内政问题；

第三，在“第二”的基础上，特朗普政府的所作所为，本质上是充分利用美国国家利益全球战略中的所剩资源为更好攫取自己所在小集团利益做掩护。所谓“对冲手段”的本质不过是“拆了东墙补西墙”。

值得一提的是，“第三”中提到的“对冲手段”，也是随着特朗普政府面对的不同时期的内外形势的变化而变化。

举个例子，假设特朗普政府如愿以偿地通过为美国对外政策寻找“平衡点”，或“最大公约数”最终在掌控美国内部局势的问题上占得主动，哪怕是阶段性的，恐怕这个时候，所谓“犹太资本”控制下的媒体就显得不如以前那么重要了。对内塔尼亚胡集团来说，这意味着特朗普的中东政策将再度向相对远离2024年11月5日之前的拜登政府的中东政策回归。这也意味着内塔尼亚胡小集团必须在此之前将“大胜中的大胜”落实、吃下，否则，恐怕就真是“过了这个村，就再没有那个店”了。

类似的变数还有很多，比如，在特朗普给普京画的这张史无前例的“大饼”。对普京来说，乌克兰有朝一日被纳入俄罗斯的版图，这个梦的确非常吸引人。再加上俄乌战争三年，俄罗斯对中国的依赖无论如何都在不断加强，中国“西扩”比北约“东扩”更让其夜不安寝，所以，趁此机会，适当调整对外政策，相对靠近美国是必要的。但吞下乌克兰的过程太慢了，相比之下，有效重返叙利亚则显得实在得多。有趣的是，就在近日，俄罗斯在叙利亚玩了一出“俄罗斯军事车队遭到叙利亚新政府拦截，无法进入塔尔图斯”的戏码。显然，俄罗斯借此方式已经开始向特朗普讨要实实在在的好处了。既然在特朗普口中，整个乌克兰都可以划给俄罗斯，何况一个小小的塔尔图斯（叙利亚）？

对特朗普来说，其一边要推动“南亚破局”进程的解冻，另一边又要和中国搞好关系，这两者是非常矛盾的，根本无法实现。如果是这样，那又如何让俄罗斯相信特朗普画的饼是真的呢？不过，如果其无法妥善处理对华关系的话，恐怕连画饼也做不到。

最后需要补充的是，俄罗斯总统普京已经向特朗普发出访俄邀请，在我们看来，这一幕与美国前总统尼克松访华这一历史事件颇为相似。只是今天的中国比作当年的苏联，今天的俄罗斯比作当年的中国，而美国还是美国。话说当年美国是借着中国的“肩膀”前往苏联访问的，那么今天的美国总统特朗普是否也想通过访俄淘换一张访华的机票呢？大家不妨拭目以待！

此外，需要提醒俄罗斯的是，1972年5月22日至30日美国总统尼克松访问苏联，主要目的在于巩固“美苏共管地球”之“G2模式”，或者说，“美苏共管地球”之“雅尔塔体系”，今天的美国总统特朗普急于访华恐怕也有类似的心思，至少有在AI层面玩“中美共管地球”之“G2模式”的心思。对中国来说，是否赞同是中国自己的事情，但对俄罗斯来说，美国的这一想法，在极度嬗变的特朗普主政美国的时期，却不得不防。对特朗普说过的话，还是三思后行为妙。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Friday, February 14, 2025, Issue No. 1179

Observing Trump's Possible Visit to Russia from the Perspective of Nixon's Historic Visit to China

[Media Coverage]

On February 12th, U.S. President Trump stated that the United States had provided Ukraine with USD 350 billion, and Ukraine agreed to "ensure" repayment of the funds provided by the United States. Trump said that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen would travel to Ukraine to ensure that the United States could recover the money in some form.

Also on February 12th, after a phone call between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that the two heads of state agreed to organize a meeting between them during the call, and Putin invited Trump to visit Moscow. Trump said on the 12th that he would meet with Putin in the near future, possibly in Saudi Arabia. Trump discussed the arrangements for his meeting with Putin with reporters at the White House that day. Trump said, "I will mainly communicate with President Putin by phone. We expect to meet eventually. In fact, we expect him (Putin) to come here (to the United States), and I will go there (to Russia), and we may also meet in Saudi Arabia."

On February 13th, U.S. President Trump announced that senior representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States would meet during the Munich Security Conference.

【Discussion Summary】

●At this stage, the Trump administration's foreign policy still prioritizes "serving domestic politics"

On February 13th, U.S. President Trump announced that senior representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States would meet during the Munich Security Conference.

At this stage, the Trump administration's foreign policy still prioritizes "serving domestic politics". Taking the Ukraine issue as an example, the Trump administration seems willing to sacrifice Ukraine's interests and even tacitly accept Russia's effective return to Syria in exchange for Russia's cooperation in the "South Asian breakthrough" process. Of course, at present, both the United States and Russia have only expressed their willingness to further cooperate, and there is still a long way to go before specific implementation. Whether it can be ultimately implemented remains a big question mark.

It is worth mentioning that Russia did not participate in the 2024 Munich Security Conference as it was excluded by the organizers. Now, with Trump's mediation, Russia can finally attend the conference along with Ukraine. In our observation, one of Trump's main intentions in bringing Russia and Ukraine together at the conference is to pressure the European Union. And just a few days ago, the AI summit where the United States was completely isolated ended in Paris.

●The "big red envelope" Trump sent, with a "cover" worth USD 280 billion

We noticed a statement made by Trump on February 12th (local time). Trump said that the United States had provided Ukraine with USD 350 billion, and Ukraine agreed to "ensure" repayment of the funds provided by the United States. Trump stated that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen would travel to Ukraine to ensure that the United States could recover the money in some form.

Previously, Trump's daughter Ivanka "returned to the spotlight" to work for her father, and Trump himself even said that there was no one he could trust.

Trump's words and actions have embarrassed others in the Trump camp, such as Musk, Vance, Bezos, and Rubio. It is not difficult to see that Trump does not trust some people within his camp. Taking Musk as an example, in the so-called 17th revision of his will, based on the "nuclear binding" mindset, if Musk were to suffer misfortune, the "possible retaliatory targets" would include not only Trump himself but also "those like Trump".

●This "feast," which can be dubbed "Marshall Plan V2.0," is thus emerging through Trump's hands.

Regarding the Ukraine issue, Oriental Affairs Interpretation has long assessed that the US national interest has no way out in this protracted war, but Western capital interests have an "exit mechanism."

Western capital interests readily accept sacrificing Ukraine's interests, especially by creating a ceasefire expectation to speculate on another wave. Just these 20 trillion dollars can be "inflated" to 50 trillion or even 100 trillion dollars through "frying, boiling, and cooking" (financial derivative transactions). Then, sprinkle a thick layer of "seasoning" called the "Ukraine Reconstruction Plan" or even the "European Reconstruction Plan," and this "feast," which can be called "Marshall Plan V2.0," is thus emerging through Trump's hands.

Not using brute force is obviously a clever means of internal strife, but can it succeed? The key lies in how to "inflate" this "big red envelope." Of course, in our view, the process of "inflation" cannot be too genuine, nor can it be too fake. The former is equivalent to asking China for help, while the latter will not have the effect of easing internal contradictions (primarily at the level of US capital interests) as expected. The key to "drawing the pie" also lies in how to tell a good story of the "financial game." Besides, they can only and are willing to play the "financial game" now. Apart from that, they are probably not interested in any other stories.

●Another classic case where the Trump administration is willing to harm the US's long-term national interests and even some capital interests, with foreign policy operating primarily to serve domestic politics.

Western capital interests have an "exit mechanism" regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, but for the EU, especially European national interests, it is probably unacceptable for Russia to ultimately win the war.

Given this, Trump is simply turning the "toast" into a "penalty drink," forcing the EU to accept it. Previously, Zelenskyy was still complaining about the funding issue of US aid to Ukraine, and then Trump started to question the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, urging Ukraine to hold presidential elections as soon as possible. It is reported that the former commander of the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian ambassador to Britain, Zaluzhnyi, ranks first in the trust rating among Ukrainian citizens. If elections are held, his support rate is as high as 72%, while Zelenskyy's support rate is only 49%. In our view, if Zelenskyy is really labeled as a "false president" by the joint efforts of Russia and the US, he will probably have to accept it. Even if the "official records" of "external accounts" are true, they will ultimately be "when falsehood is taken for truth, truth becomes falsehood; when nothing is treated as something, something becomes nothing"! As a result, Zelenskyy cowered and became a "lapdog" led by Trump, waddling to Munich to attend the conference.

For the EU, Russia, which was excluded from the 2024 Munich Security Conference, has not only returned to the conference at the invitation of the US but also made Ukrainian President Zelenskyy obey the US's every command under coercion and inducement. Moreover, what annoys the EU the most is that on its turf (Munich, Germany), the original "quadrilateral talks" on the Ukraine issue (US, EU, Russia, Ukraine) have turned into trilateral talks (US, Russia, Ukraine). This is truly unbearable!

Trump's signal to the EU is very clear: the Ukraine issue will be handled this way, whether the EU agrees or not! Otherwise, can the EU accept a Russia-Ukraine war where the US completely washes its hands of the matter and allows Russia to achieve an unprecedented victory?

It should be added that this is also the reason why the US is blackmailing the EU to increase NATO military spending. That is, if the "protection fee" is not paid, the US will throw the EU to the "bears." Obviously, Trump is firmly practicing the famous saying: it is dangerous to be an enemy of the US, but it is fatal to be an ally of the US. Without squeezing the "largest ally of the US" - the EU (European national interests and some European capital interests) to the greatest extent possible, where would Trump get the resources to balance internal interest disputes (sacrificing US national interests, European national interests including Ukraine, and easing, even if temporarily, internal conflicts within US capital interests)? It is not difficult to see that this is another classic case where the Trump administration is willing to harm the US's long-term national interests and even some capital interests, with foreign policy operating primarily to serve domestic politics.

●The US is forming an alliance with Russia, while China is forming an alliance with the EU. Comparing the two, has the US gained or lost?

The Trump administration is not entirely without countermeasures regarding the potential outrage from the EU.

In our previous discussions, we mentioned the EU's active involvement in the subsequent development of the Syrian issue. This is obviously closely related to the EU's renewed "ambition" projected onto the traditional security level at the Paris AI Summit, with strategic support from the international community, such as the Syrian issue. In the subsequent development process of the current Syrian situation, there is a country that is exceptionally active and unique, and that is Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Gulf Arab countries.

In our view, Trump said, "I will mainly communicate with President Putin by phone. We expect to meet eventually. In fact, we expect him (Putin) to come here (the US), and I will go there (Russia), and we may also meet in Saudi Arabia." This is probably also because he sees the "unique" aspect of Saudi Arabia. The so-called "unique aspect" lies in the fact that the EU, which is eager to get involved in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, needs to maintain good relations with Saudi Arabia; Russia, which is eager to effectively return to Syria, needs to maintain good relations with Saudi Arabia; and the US, which is eager to maintain its influence in the Middle East, also needs to maintain good relations with Saudi Arabia.

It can be said that Saudi Arabia is very flattered by such attention. Saudi Arabia has never played such a crucial role or wielded such significant influence in the complex evolution of international situations. However, Saudi Arabia is well aware that all of this is attributed to the "uncrowned king" standing behind it, which is China.China has not been absent, and for the US, the EU, and Russia, although China has not participated in the "mahjong" game of the subsequent development of the Syrian issue, China's shadow is everywhere. And China also exerts a unique and irreplaceable important influence on the subsequent development of the Syrian situation by standing behind the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia.

It should be added that in our previous preliminary assessment, the possibility of the US and Russia getting closer on the Syrian issue has been further verified. Obviously, the EU's urgent desire to open up an energy pipeline from the Middle East, through Turkey, bypassing Russia, and escaping US control has indeed allowed the US and Russia to find more "common language" in the "mahjong" game of the subsequent development of the Syrian issue. If the EU wants to open up this energy pipeline, it not only has to ask if the US agrees but also has to ask if Russia agrees.

The country that can help the EU on this issue is, on the surface, the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, but in reality, it is China and the "Belt and Road" initiative standing behind them. For the EU, should it maintain good relations with China? This is obviously a specific manifestation of the "diplomatic strategy of allying with distant states and attacking nearby ones" that Trump has been hyping and to some extent implementing since he came to power. The only difference is that the US is forming an alliance with Russia, while China is forming an alliance with the EU. Comparing the two, has the US gained or lost? It is self-evident.

There is a saying in the West that a false peace is more dangerous than a real war. Applied to Trump, it can be extended to the idea that false allies are more dangerous than real enemies. Obviously, this kind of open conflict where one cannot distinguish between friends and foes is a dead end. The strategy must be changed.

As the ancients said, people in the world are busy coming and going, all for the sake of profit. In Trump's eyes, perhaps the word "profit" is the only key to unlocking the current crisis. If he can find a way, even a temporary one, to convince Trump's "enemies" that he can help them continue to make money, for example, by continuing to make huge profits in financial games, these "enemies" of Trump may become his "allies", even if only for a certain period. This would be meaningful for Trump.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy previously stated that Ukraine had only received USD 76 billion out of the USD 200 billion provided by the United States. And Trump mentioned USD 350 billion today. Based on Trump's bill, roughly USD 280 billion is unaccounted for.

In our observation, this "missing bill" of USD 280 billion, which is neither too small nor too large, can be utilized by Trump as a starting point to "turn enemies into friends" (if we compare the USD 280 billion to the "cover" of a red envelope sent by Trump, inside it, there are Ukraine's rare earth resources worth a whopping USD 20 trillion). For example, the traditional U.S. military-industrial complex.

And that's not all. The Trump administration's strong stance in supporting Israel on the Israeli-Palestinian issue (at a certain stage, Israel, which has many enemies, needs the United States to continue providing a large amount of weapons) and U.S. Vice President Vance's collection of "protection fees" from European countries (due to the three-year Russia-Ukraine war, European countries need to replenish their weapons, and these increased NATO military expenses will ultimately turn into "orders" for the U.S. military-industrial complex) all indicate that the USD 280 billion is just the "appetizer" for a new "feast". Through such a series of operations, even if it is not possible to "turn enemies into friends", at least the hostility of the other side can be diluted.

●If Russia truly achieves an "effective return" to Syria, the "brief cooperation" between the US and Russia may immediately cease.

Of course, Trump and Putin seem to be enjoying this "game of mahjong."

For Putin, if Trump's "promise" that "one day Ukraine will become Russia" comes true, and Ukraine becomes part of Russia, wouldn't that be a "victory among victories" (similar to the "victory among victories" Trump is sparing no effort to help Netanyahu achieve)? Regarding this, former German Chancellor Merkel, who once publicly admitted to being a "bad girl," could be described as "an expert" — I only deceived Putin with the Minsk Agreement, but you (Trump) are deceiving Putin with the possibility of the entire Ukraine becoming Russia!

The key point is that Putin seems quite excited! It appears that Russia is once again willing to believe what it wants to believe, even though this seems unreliable to people like Merkel. Who can blame Russia for its "Afghan policy calculations" running amok again, with its vigilance towards China far exceeding that towards Ukrainian (NATO) soldiers still ravaging the "pure Russian" territory in Kursk?

Of course, it's also possible that Russia is taking advantage of the situation, given Trump's tendency to prioritize domestic politics in all his foreign policies, and is eating what it can for now. This reminds me of a Chinese saying, "Iron-Crutch Li squints his eyes; you deceive me, and I deceive you." It's not hard to imagine that if Russia truly achieves an effective return to Syria, the "brief cooperation" between the US and Russia may immediately cease. At that point, Russia will become America's enemy again, and the US will be in a more passive position on the Syrian issue than it was before the Assad regime fell, especially since the EU is now more deeply involved in Syria, and with Saudi Arabia and other overseas Arab countries actively intervening in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, the US will have to contain the EU, obstruct Russia, and guard against China on the Syrian issue. For the US, especially for American national interests, this objectively pushes the situation towards reactivating the "fourth round of realignment."

Furthermore, in our view, it won't be easy to completely resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, even if a ceasefire is reached, it will only be temporary. Because the core issues of the Ukrainian problem have not been resolved, and the interests of Europe and Russia in Ukraine cannot be balanced by the US. Like the Middle East, even if the situation is contained, it will only be temporarily. The question is how to respond, for example, in the Middle East issue, China stands behind the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia. In the end, if the promises Trump makes cannot be turned into tangible benefits, and when the "red giant effect" enters its final stage and begins to collapse, the bigger the promises made yesterday, the more fiercely contradictions will erupt today.

●Does US President Trump today also want to exchange a visit to Russia for a ticket to visit China? Let's wait and see!

In summary, we believe that the main intentions of the Trump administration are as follows:

First, to implement a strategy of "diplomacy of alliance and division, befriending distant states and attacking nearby ones" to some extent, through both non-traditional and traditional security aspects, in order to find a "balance" or "greatest common divisor" for US foreign policy, which mainly deals with relations with China, Europe, and Russia.

Second, based on the first point, the main purpose of finding a "balance" or "greatest common divisor" for US foreign policy is to better serve domestic political issues in the US.

Third, based on the second point, the actions of the Trump administration are essentially about fully utilizing the remaining resources in the global strategy of US national interests to cover up for the better seizure of benefits for their own small group. The essence of the so-called "hedging strategy" is nothing more than "robbing Peter to pay Paul."

It's worth mentioning that the "hedging strategy" mentioned in the third point also changes with the changes in the internal and external situations faced by the Trump administration at different times.

For example, if the Trump administration successfully finds a "balance" or "greatest common divisor" for US foreign policy to gain the upper hand in controlling the internal situation in the US, even if it's only temporary, the media controlled by the so-called "Jewish capital" may become less important than before. For the Netanyahu group, this means that Trump's Middle East policy will once again shift away from the Middle East policy of the Biden administration before November 5, 2024. This also means that the Netanyahu group must secure and consume their "victory among victories" before then, otherwise, they may truly miss their chance.

There are many other variables, such as the unprecedented "pie in the sky" Trump has painted for Putin. For Putin, the dream of Ukraine one day becoming part of Russia is indeed very attractive. Plus, after three years of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia's dependence on China has continuously increased. China's "westward expansion" keeps Putin up at night more than NATO's "eastward expansion." Therefore, it is necessary to take this opportunity to adjust foreign policy and move closer to the US. However, the process of swallowing Ukraine is too slow. In contrast, an effective return to Syria seems much more tangible. Interestingly, just recently, Russia staged a drama in Syria where "a Russian military convoy was intercepted by the new Syrian government and unable to enter Tartus." Obviously, Russia has started to demand tangible benefits from Trump in this way. Since in Trump's mouth, the entire Ukraine can be given to Russia, why not a small Tartus (in Syria)?

For Trump, on one hand, he wants to push for the thawing of the "South Asian deadlock," and on the other hand, he wants to maintain good relations with China. These two goals are very contradictory and cannot be achieved simultaneously. If that's the case, how can Russia believe that the pie Trump is painting is real? However, if Trump cannot properly handle relations with China, he may not even be able to paint the pie.

Finally, it should be added that Russian President Putin has invited Trump to visit Russia. In our view, this scene is quite similar to the historical event of former US President Nixon's visit to China. It's just that today's China is compared to the Soviet Union of that time, today's Russia is compared to China of that time, and the US is still the US. Back then, the US used China as a "stepping stone" to visit the Soviet Union. So, does US President Trump today also want to exchange a visit to Russia for a ticket to visit China? Let's wait and see!

In addition, it should be reminded to Russia that when US President Nixon visited the Soviet Union from May 22 to 30, 1972, his main goal was to consolidate the "G2 model" of "US-Soviet co-management of the Earth," or the "Yalta system" of "US-Soviet co-management of the Earth." US President Trump's eagerness to visit China may have similar intentions, at least in terms of playing a "G2 model" of "Sino-US co-management of the Earth" in the AI field. For China, whether to agree is China's own business, but for Russia, this idea of the US, during the extremely volatile period of Trump's administration, must be guarded against. It's better to think twice before taking Trump's words seriously.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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