https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R2sZufFqvPEOeYZI-z0QfQ
2025年2月18日，星期二，第1182期 美国拉着敌对的俄罗斯在中东“摆了一桌麻将”，而欧盟则拉着美国的终极敌人中国在乌克兰“摆了一桌麻将” 【媒体报道】 2月16日，多家埃及权威媒体密集报道，正式宣布埃及与中国已正式签署合同，采购40架“歼-10CE”战机，以及“PL-15E”远程空对空导弹。值得一提的是，就在相关新闻官宣之际，首批“歼-10CE”和“PL-15E”空空导弹已经交付埃及空军。 2月17日，莫斯科美利坚大学高级研究员马丁·西夫在中国媒体撰文称，美国长期损害欧洲盟友利益，如今乌克兰问题更是让美欧矛盾进一步凸显。 2月17日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，不排除中国参与乌克兰问题和平谈判的可能性。 【讨论纪要】 ●强压欧盟接受“美式处理乌克兰”是特朗普政府调动一切外交资源首先服务于内政的又一具体表现 在此前的讨论中，我们重点讨论了美国务院修改“美台关系”，删除有关“不支持台湾独立”表述为何是一个精心设计的“陷阱”这一话题。在我们看来，特朗普政府的主要目的在于，基于“合纵连横，远交近攻”策略，以台湾问题为切入点，以乌克兰问题为战略腾挪支点，为施行“攘外必先安内政策”打开操作空间。 其中，其一，以“取其上得其中”思想为指导，通过一系列利、诱、威、逼手段，测试俄罗斯的对外政策，尤其是对华政策，并试图战略诱骗俄罗斯向实质性瓦解中俄战略互信的方向（比如，有利于“解冻”已“暂时冻结”的“南亚破局”进程）错误行事；其二，试图通过炒作台湾问题战略诱骗欧盟，使其认为台湾问题的确是一个可以与中国讨价还价的筹码，进而在客观上拉高遭遇威、逼、利、诱，且有意拉中国为“外援”平衡美国的欧盟与中国接近的“门槛儿”。 我们注意到莫斯科美利坚大学高级研究员马丁·西夫的撰文，文章称，美国长期损害欧洲盟友利益，如今乌克兰问题更是让美欧矛盾进一步凸显。 不难看出，各方都已经注意到特朗普政府在处理乌克兰问题上没有考虑其重要盟友——欧盟的感受，强压欧盟接受“美式处理乌克兰”的最新变化。甚至可以说，特朗普政府已经明目张胆地将欧洲比作“第二个乌克兰”。在与俄罗斯的交易中，不仅要牺牲乌克兰的利益，更是随时在其认为必要的时候把欧洲“做成一盘菜”。 需要强调的是，美国这样做，当然不是要将欧洲推向中国，甚至说彻底牺牲欧洲利益，只是逼迫欧洲务必配合特朗普政府“攘外必先安内”的政策，尤其是大幅提升欧洲国家的军费，以此来弥合代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部日渐加深的矛盾。特朗普政府很明显牺牲了部分欧美关系，这是目前特朗普政府调动一切外交资源首先服务于内政的具体表现。也是特朗普政府在对华、对欧、对俄三方关系中力求获取“最大公约数”的具体表现。 欧盟显然不能接受俄乌战争以俄罗斯全面胜利结束，欧盟认为目前美国处理乌克兰问题的方式让欧洲的安全问题空前凸显，以至于德国总统施泰因迈尔在慕尼黑安全会议开幕式上对美国现任政府提出公开批评。施泰因迈尔毫不留情地指出，美国新政府对世界的认知与欧洲不同，美方无视既定规则和伙伴关系以及互相信任。他强调，欧洲只能接受并与其继续打交道，但无法无天不能代替世界新秩序。欧洲应该加强自身合作与团结，不会成为“车灯下被吓坏的鹿”。 需要补充的是，尽管欧美之间矛盾开始因乌克兰问题而变得尖锐对立，但在东方时事解读的观察与评估中，欧美关系距离“公开争吵”仍有距离。 ●中、美、欧、俄四方在乌克兰问题与中东问题的“隔空互动”中就这样形成了典型的“合纵连横”的局面 乌克兰局势早已与中东局势联动，特朗普政府深知，在乌克兰问题上强压欧盟，欧盟必然会在中东问题上寻机对冲，而在乌克兰问题和中东问题上同时压服欧盟绝非易事，所以，引俄入叙，平衡欧盟在中东问题，尤其是叙利亚问题后续发展中的影响力对特朗普来说，至少在当前阶段是有必要的。当然，需要平衡的目标不仅仅是欧盟，更有土耳其、沙特、埃及等中东国家在中东问题上，尤其在特朗普政府上台后开始全面执行“攘外必先安内”政策并大幅提升对以色列内塔尼亚胡政府支持力度的背景下形成的战略压力。 值得一提的是，尽管乌克兰局势早已与中东局势联动，但在拜登政府为一己私利在叙利亚问题上打开损害美国国家长远利益之“潘多拉的魔盒”后，在东方时事解读的评估中，以叙利亚局势后续发展为代表的中东局势让美国中东政策的维稳成本直线飙升，且很难还原到叙利亚阿萨德政权倒台之前，似乎透过特朗普政府在叙利亚问题上的左支右绌得到进一步验证。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基近日表示，称不排除中国参与乌克兰问题和谈的可能性。这是欧盟为对冲美国压力，有意拉中国为“外援”的具体表现。也是美国想方设法借台湾问题意图诱骗欧盟以此为筹码与中国讨价还价，在中欧关系中制造障碍的主要原因。但是，在我们看来，中国在乌克兰问题目前阶段或不会主动入局。所以，某种意义上说，欧盟在乌克兰问题上仍是“单兵作战”，唯一的帮手似乎只有泽连斯基（泽连斯基政权还能存续多久还要打个问号）。 值得一提的是，尽管中国在乌克兰问题目前阶段或不会主动入局，但并不意味着中国绝对不会拒绝参加乌克兰和平谈判。 如果最终中国同意参加乌克兰和平谈判，那局面就有趣了：美国拉着它的敌人俄罗斯在中东“摆了一桌麻将”，而欧洲则拉着美国的“终极敌人”——中国在乌克兰“摆了一桌麻将”。美俄在中东会晤谈乌克兰问题是“着眼于乌克兰问题，着手于中东问题”；中欧在乌克兰问题上接近谈中东问题则是“着眼于中东问题，着手于乌克兰问题”。于是，中、美、欧、俄四方在乌克兰问题与中东问题的“隔空互动”中就这样形成了典型的“合纵连横”的局面。 ●特朗普政府推行的“加沙清空计划”，埃及显然是最大受害者 2月17日，我们注意到，一名埃及消息人士称，埃及正在制订一项加沙地带重建计划，使加沙地带居民不必撤出。埃及与巴勒斯坦民族权力机构协调制订了该计划，计划主要分为三个阶段。 按照特朗普的所谓“加沙清空计划”，他希望埃及和约旦将巴勒斯坦人从加沙撤离，以让中东地区和平。显然，其中，埃及是最大受害者。不难看出，埃及提出的这项沙地带重建计划明显针对特朗普的“加沙清空计划”。 2月16日，以色列国防部发布消息称，约1800重型美制MK-84航空炸弹已运抵以色列。 这种炸弹单枚重2000磅（约合907千克），爆炸威力巨大。本轮巴以冲突中，以军曾大量使用这种炸弹。此前，拜登政府在国内外压力下一度暂缓向以色列输送重型炸弹，不过今年1月，美国解除了向以色列提供2000磅重型炸弹的限制。 在我们看来，特朗普这样做显然一边在试图继续压服伊朗，另一边则相对隐晦地威胁埃及，言外之意就是，美国不遗余力地帮助以色列内塔尼亚胡政府继续在加沙地带推动所谓“清空计划”，埃及能奈我何？与此同时，内塔尼亚胡小集团也在抓住机会，紧紧拉住特朗普政府来实现其梦寐以求的“大胜中的大胜”。这个心思明显直接威胁到中东地区的许多国家，比如，埃及、约旦、叙利亚、黎巴嫩等，以至于这些中东国家再度被动员起来。 ●这份由“歼-10CE”加持的埃及发出的强烈警告，恐怕美以不能忽略 近日，我们注意到埃及媒体密集报道，埃及空军已经从中国获得了第一批“歼-10CE”战斗机的新闻报道。埃及媒体称，这标志着埃及的防空战略发生了重大转变。公开消息显示，埃及在2024年8月19日向中国发出了初始订单，如今已经按照订单约定，接收了首批“歼-10CE”战斗机。 埃及作为特朗普政府强行推进的“加沙清空计划”的最直接受害者，恐怕最有理由用行动进行反击。相比于以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家，他们或更多通过外交途径对“加沙清空计划”表示抗议和反对。 在东方时事解读的观察与评估中，“歼-10CE”战机的到货对中东地区的军事现状具有重大冲击。 埃及空军素有“万国造”之称，其中主要包括法国、美国和俄罗斯的各型战机。虽然埃及军方也曾从中国购买过“歼-7”系列战机，但机型已严重老化，但在“歼-10CE”到货后，这一情况发生本质性变化。“歼-10CE”是中东地区出现的第一款“四代半”战机，而且“歼-10CE”是自带光芒的，那就是“PL-15E”空空导弹。据官方数据显示，“PL-15E”的有效射程可达150KM以上，而美国的“AIM120D”空空导弹的有效射程只有120KM。“PL-15E”的有效射程比其多了足足多了30KM。 大家知道，中东地区向来有个说法——没有埃及参与，就没有中东战争。某种意义上说，埃及军队在中东地区的战斗力非常强悍，历届中东战争，埃及都是冲杀在前。 也许有的网友会问，既然埃及军力如此雄壮，为什么坐视巴勒斯坦加沙地带惨状至今而无动于衷？诸多中东国家也只能对美以暴行敢怒不敢言。在我们看来，这个问题的答案很简单（不是唯一原因，但是一个重要原因。最关键原因在于其政府无法下定决心，他们多被西方高度渗透），埃及不敢打！而不敢打的关键就在于，埃及手上没有“趁手的家伙”，尤其是空军。现代战争，夺取制空权非常重要，如果开战之初就丧失制空权，那么军事行动的结果大概率是灾难性的。而埃及手上的欧美造战机和武器，关键时刻，会被欧美远程“锁死”而无法使用（类似的问题在沙特等海外阿拉伯国家中同样广泛存在。欧美武器全是“烧火棍”，要么无法发射，要么没有准头）。而俄制战机性能落后，无法在开战之初协助埃及军队夺取制空权。 “歼-10CE”之所以强大，其一，其具有半隐形功能；其二，雷达强悍；第三，“PL-15E”的性能更是一骑绝尘。可以说，当“歼-10CE”到货后，对埃及而言，其完全可以借此机会，通过暗示欧美对中东国家武器的“锁死”即将失效，进一步对特朗普政府不顾埃及核心利益强推“加沙清空计划”发出强烈警告并表达严重抗议——谁要把难民赶到埃及，埃及就和谁玩儿命！ 在我们看来，这份由“歼-10CE”加持的埃及的强烈警告，恐怕美以不能忽略，关键在于，中国军力非比等闲，手里不仅有“歼-10CE”和“PL-15”，更有无人机、机器狗，甚至搞反了，中国并不吝惜将“歼-35”也“摆上货架”。显然，“歼-10CE”（中国中东影响力）成了特朗普政府继续推动所谓“加沙清空计划”的最大障碍。中国也在通过自己独特的方式来影响中东局势的后续走向。 此外，中国在中东的影响力不仅在出口埃及“歼-10CE”的问题上，更通过沙特等海湾阿拉伯国家施加莫大影响，以至于美、俄不得不把“喝咖啡”的地点选在沙特，哄着沙特。 美俄意图阻止中东输欧能源管线，不仅损害了中东国家的利益，损害了欧盟的利益，更有损中国“一带一路”倡议的长远利益。不过，显然今天的美国，尤其是俄罗斯，已经没有足够的能力掌控中东“这桌儿牌局”的主动权了。正所谓“请神容易送神难”，牌局如何进行，何时结束，以什么形式结束，恐怕美俄双方心里是一点底也没有。当然，如果在这个过程中，美国内部“恶斗”剧情更加狗血，那么“这桌儿牌局”就会玩得更有意思。 ●主动曝光“地下长城”战略工程，主要目的就在于震慑西方邪恶势力 2月14日深夜，FBI特工们携搜查令直扑佩洛西在旧金山的豪宅。 在地下室一通搜查后，特工们发现了大量现金、黄金以及众多机密文件。最终FBI的行动小组搬走刻有佩洛西家族徽章的保险箱，并带走23块加密硬盘、四部手机，以及一本涉及军火交易的“绝密”账本。 显然，美国内部“恶斗”的剧情正在继续变得更加狗血！特朗普其人果然是睚眦必报，对佩洛西以其人之道还治其人之身。不仅如此，马斯克更是曝出美国社保体系惊天腐败，“360岁高龄的美国人”还在领取养老金！根据马斯克公布的材料，数据库中登记地在拿退休金的100岁及以上人口超过2000万，超过120岁的老寿星，加起来超过1100万！马斯克坦言，根据社保数据库，每个年龄段都有相应数量的人被标记为“未死亡”！也许《暮光之城》是真的，（美国）社会安全金正在被大量“吸血鬼”领取。 美国内部“恶斗”可谓越斗越惊世骇俗！所谓“美式民主，美式法律，美式公平”已经成为世界级的大笑话！在我们看来，如果最终特朗普政府“蛋糕”做不大，内部各利益集团的诉求抹不匀，恐怕立刻就会引来“摔杯为号”与杀身之祸！ 相比之下，中国却在稳扎稳打，不断推动产业升级、产业转型。两相比较，胜负已分，高下立判！ 此外，近日，中国官媒罕见曝光了火箭军某部工程兵节日期间连续施工的画面，揭开了战略导弹洞库的神秘面纱。这些深藏地下的“地下长城”是中国战略核威慑力量的坚实盾牌，也是确保二次核反击能力的关键所在。早在2022年，钱七虎院士在接受官媒采访的时候，面对记者问他，要是哪个国家真使上核武器，那他设计的这个工程究能保护咱们保护到什么程度。钱老毫不含糊地回答：“不论敌人怎么打击，包括核打击，我们这套工程都能保证咱们的安全。” 之所以再次主动曝光“地下长城”，主要目的就在于震慑西方邪恶势力。顺便提一句的是，面对经济越来越差这一现实的美俄（核弹头是有保质期的，维护费用十分昂贵。很多失效的核弹头只能用去发电或再加工，美苏在冷战制造大量核弹头，号称上万，他们的很多核弹头已经失效），到底还有多少可以可靠使用的核弹头恐怕要画一个大大的问号。在美俄内部内斗不断，贪腐严重的情况下，我们估计美俄各自1000枚核弹头左右。也就是说，不会比中国储备的核弹头的数量多，或者说，中国储备的核弹头不比他们少（甚至可能在缓慢增长，尤其是随着一些新的军事技术和军事理论的出现，太多的核弹头储备没有必要），尤其在5000km长的“地下长城”战略工程的加持下，中国的核弹头也许能够“以一顶十”。如果再加上载具问题（比如，美国的“民兵3”，俄罗斯的“萨尔马特”只能“指哪儿打哪儿”，而中国的“DF31-AG”是指哪儿打哪儿！），美俄的核威慑到今天到底成色几何，恐怕也要画上一个大大的问号！ 【相关话题】 第7805期－如何从“外政服务于内斗”角度观察特朗普要求乌克兰泽连斯基政府“回退”援乌3500亿美元？（2025-2-14） 声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
Tuesday, February 18, 2025, Issue No. 1182 The United States has set up a "mahjong table" in the Middle East with Russia, its adversary, while the European Union has set up another "mahjong table" in Ukraine with China, the ultimate foe of the United States. [Media Coverage] On February 16th, multiple authoritative Egyptian media outlets reported intensively that Egypt and China had officially signed a contract for the procurement of 40 "J-10CE" fighter jets, along with "PL-15E" long-range air-to-air missiles. It is worth mentioning that just as the news was officially announced, the first batch of "J-10CE" fighters and "PL-15E" air-to-air missiles had already been delivered to the Egyptian Air Force. On February 17th, Martin Sieff, a senior researcher at Moscow's American University, wrote an article in a Chinese media outlet stating that the United States has long harmed the interests of its European allies, and the Ukraine issue has further highlighted the contradictions between the US and Europe. Also on February 17th, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that he does not rule out the possibility of China participating in peace negotiations on the Ukraine issue. 【Discussion Summary】 ● Forcing the EU to accept the "American way of handling Ukraine" is another specific manifestation of the Trump administration's mobilization of all diplomatic resources primarily to serve domestic politics. In previous discussions, we focused on why the US State Department's revision of the "US-Taiwan relationship," deleting references to "not supporting Taiwan independence," is a deliberately designed "trap." In our view, the Trump administration's primary goal is, based on the strategy of "dividing and conquering, making distant allies and attacking nearby enemies," to use the Taiwan issue as an entry point and the Ukraine issue as a strategic pivot to create room for maneuver in implementing its "internal stability before resisting external aggression" policy. Firstly, guided by the idea of "aim high to achieve in the middle," through a series of inducements, threats, coercion, and enticements, it tests Russia's foreign policy, especially its policy towards China, and attempts to strategically deceive Russia into acting in a way that substantially undermines Sino-Russian strategic trust (for example, facilitating the "thawing" of the "temporarily frozen" "South Asian breakthrough" process). Secondly, it attempts to strategically deceive the EU by hyping the Taiwan issue, making it believe that the Taiwan issue is indeed a bargaining chip that can be used to negotiate with China, thereby objectively raising the "threshold" for the EU, which is subjected to threats, coercion, inducements, and enticements and intentionally seeks China as an "external ally" to balance against the US, to approach China. We have noticed an article by Martin Sieff, a senior researcher at Moscow's American University. The article states that the United States has long harmed the interests of its European allies, and the Ukraine issue has further highlighted the contradictions between the US and Europe. It is not difficult to see that all parties have noticed that the Trump administration has not considered the feelings of its important ally, the EU, in handling the Ukraine issue, and is forcing the EU to accept the latest changes in the "American way of handling Ukraine." It can even be said that the Trump administration has blatantly compared Europe to a "second Ukraine." In its dealings with Russia, it is not only willing to sacrifice Ukraine's interests but is also ready to "make a dish" out of Europe whenever it deems necessary. It should be emphasized that the United States' intention is not to push Europe towards China or even to sacrifice European interests completely. Rather, it is to force Europe to cooperate with the Trump administration's "internal stability before resisting external aggression" policy, especially by significantly increasing military spending by European countries, in order to bridge the deepening contradictions within the interests of US capital, which represents the interests of Western capital. The Trump administration has obviously sacrificed part of the US-Europe relationship, which is a specific manifestation of the Trump administration's mobilization of all diplomatic resources primarily to serve domestic politics. It is also a specific manifestation of the Trump administration's pursuit of the "greatest common divisor" in its relations with China, Europe, and Russia. The EU clearly cannot accept a comprehensive Russian victory in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The EU believes that the current US approach to handling the Ukraine issue has made Europe's security issues more prominent than ever. To the extent that German President Steinmeier publicly criticized the current US administration at the opening ceremony of the Munich Security Conference. Steinmeier relentlessly pointed out that the new US administration's perception of the world differs from Europe's, and that the US disregards established rules, partnerships, and mutual trust. He emphasized that Europe can only accept and continue to deal with it, but lawlessness cannot replace a new world order. Europe should strengthen its own cooperation and unity and will not become a "deer frightened under the headlights." It should be added that although contradictions between Europe and the US have become sharply opposed due to the Ukraine issue, in the observation and assessment of Eastern Affairs Interpretation, the EU-US relationship is still some distance away from "public quarrels." ● A typical "alliance and counter-alliance" situation has thus emerged among China, the US, Europe, and Russia in their "indirect interactions" over the Ukraine issue and the Middle East issue. The situation in Ukraine has long been interconnected with the situation in the Middle East. The Trump administration was well aware that pressuring the EU on the Ukraine issue would inevitably prompt the EU to seek opportunities to hedge in the Middle East issue. It would not be easy to suppress the EU simultaneously on both the Ukraine and Middle East issues. Therefore, bringing Russia into Syria to balance the EU's influence in the subsequent development of the Middle East issue, especially the Syrian issue, was at least necessary for Trump at the current stage. Of course, the goal of balancing was not only the EU but also Middle Eastern countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, which were under strategic pressure formed after the Trump administration came to power and began fully implementing the policy of "putting one's own house in order before fighting external aggression" and significantly increasing support for the Netanyahu government in Israel. It is worth mentioning that although the situation in Ukraine has long been interconnected with the situation in the Middle East, after the Biden administration opened "Pandora's box" that harms the long-term interests of the United States on the Syrian issue for its own sake, in the assessment of East View Information, the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East, represented by the situation in Syria, has caused the cost of maintaining stability in US Middle East policy to soar, and it is difficult to return to the situation before the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. This seems to be further verified by the Trump administration's struggle on the Syrian issue. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy recently stated that he does not rule out the possibility of China's participation in peace talks on the Ukraine issue. This is a specific manifestation of the EU's intention to bring China in as an "external ally" to hedge against US pressure. It is also the main reason why the US is trying to use the Taiwan issue to lure the EU into using it as a bargaining chip to negotiate with China, creating obstacles in Sino-European relations. However, in our view, China will not proactively enter the fray on the Ukraine issue at the current stage. Therefore, in a sense, the EU is still "fighting alone" on the Ukraine issue, with Zelenskyy (and the question of how long the Zelenskyy regime can last) being its only apparent ally. It is worth mentioning that although China will not proactively enter the fray on the Ukraine issue at the current stage, it does not mean that China will absolutely refuse to participate in peace talks on the Ukraine issue. If China ultimately agrees to participate in peace talks on the Ukraine issue, the situation will become interesting: the US is "playing mahjong" in the Middle East with its enemy Russia, while Europe is "playing mahjong" in Ukraine with America's "ultimate enemy" – China. The US-Russia meeting in the Middle East to discuss the Ukraine issue is "focusing on the Ukraine issue while addressing the Middle East issue"; the Europe-China rapprochement on the Ukraine issue to discuss the Middle East issue is "focusing on the Middle East issue while addressing the Ukraine issue". Thus, a typical "alliance and counter-alliance" situation has emerged among China, the US, Europe, and Russia in their "indirect interactions" over the Ukraine issue and the Middle East issue. ● Egypt is clearly the biggest victim of the Trump administration's "Gaza evacuation plan" On February 17th, we noted that an Egyptian source stated that Egypt is formulating a reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip so that residents do not have to evacuate. Egypt coordinated with the Palestinian Authority to formulate the plan, which is mainly divided into three phases. According to Trump's so-called "Gaza evacuation plan," he hopes that Egypt and Jordan will evacuate Palestinians from Gaza to bring peace to the Middle East. Obviously, Egypt is the biggest victim among them. It is not difficult to see that the reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip proposed by Egypt is clearly aimed at Trump's "Gaza evacuation plan." On February 16th, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced that about 1,800 heavy US-made MK-84 aerial bombs had arrived in Israel. Each of these bombs weighs 2,000 pounds (about 907 kilograms) and has a tremendous explosive power. During the current round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Israeli military used this type of bomb extensively. Previously, the Biden administration temporarily suspended the delivery of heavy bombs to Israel under domestic and international pressure. However, in January of this year, the US lifted the restriction on providing 2,000-pound heavy bombs to Israel. In our view, Trump's actions are clearly aimed at continuing to suppress Iran on the one hand and relatively subtly threatening Egypt on the other. The implication is that the US is sparing no effort to help the Netanyahu government in Israel continue to promote the so-called "evacuation plan" in the Gaza Strip. What can Egypt do about it? Meanwhile, the Netanyahu faction is also seizing the opportunity to tightly grasp the Trump administration to achieve its long-cherished "victory within a greater victory." This intention clearly poses a direct threat to many countries in the Middle East, such as Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, etc., to the extent that these Middle Eastern countries are once again being mobilized. ●A Strong Warning from Egypt, Bolstered by the "J-10CE," That the US and Israel Cannot Ignore Recently, we have noticed intensive media reports in Egypt stating that the Egyptian Air Force has received the first batch of "J-10CE" fighter jets from China. Egyptian media claimed that this marks a significant shift in Egypt's air defense strategy. Public information reveals that Egypt placed an initial order with China on August 19, 2024, and has now received the first batch of "J-10CE" fighter jets as agreed upon in the order. As the most direct victim of the "Gaza Evacuation Plan" forcibly pushed by the Trump administration, Egypt perhaps has the most reason to retaliate with actions. Compared to Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, they may have抗议ed and opposed the "Gaza Evacuation Plan" more through diplomatic channels. In the observation and assessment of East News Interpretation, the arrival of the "J-10CE" fighter jets has a significant impact on the current military situation in the Middle East. The Egyptian Air Force has long been known as a "melting pot" of fighter jets from various countries, including France, the United States, and Russia. Although the Egyptian military has previously purchased "J-7" series fighter jets from China, these aircraft have severely aged. However, with the arrival of the "J-10CE," this situation has undergone a fundamental change. The "J-10CE" is the first "fourth-and-a-half-generation" fighter jet to appear in the Middle East, and it comes with its ownrays of light in the form of the "PL-15E" air-to-air missile. According to official data, the effective range of the "PL-15E" exceeds 150 kilometers, while the effective range of the US "AIM-120D" air-to-air missile is only 120 kilometers. The "PL-15E" has an effective range that is 30 kilometers greater. As we all know, there is a saying in the Middle East: "There is no Middle East war without Egypt's participation." In a sense, the Egyptian military is very formidable in the Middle East, and Egypt has always been at the forefront of Middle East wars. Some netizens may ask, since the Egyptian military is so strong, why has it stood idly by and watched the tragic situation in the Gaza Strip in Palestine without taking action? Many Middle Eastern countries can only express their anger towards the atrocities committed by the US and Israel but dare not speak out. In our view, the answer to this question is simple (it's not the only reason, but an important one. The key reason lies in the fact that their government is highly infiltrated by the West and cannot make up their mind). Egypt doesn't dare to fight! The crucial reason why they dare not fight is that Egypt doesn't have "suitable weapons," especially in the air force. In modern warfare, seizing air supremacy is crucial. If air supremacy is lost at the beginning of the war, the outcome of military operations is likely to be catastrophic. The European and American-made fighter jets and weapons in Egypt's possession can be remotely "locked down" and rendered unusable by Europe and the US at critical moments (similar issues are also widespread in overseas Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia. European and American weapons become useless, either unable to launch or lacking accuracy). And Russian-made fighter jets are outdated and unable to assist the Egyptian military in seizing air supremacy at the beginning of the war. The "J-10CE" is powerful for several reasons. Firstly, it has semi-stealth capabilities; secondly, its radar is formidable; and thirdly, the performance of the "PL-15E" is unparalleled. It can be said that with the arrival of the "J-10CE," Egypt now has the opportunity to implicitly warn Europe and the US that the "lockdown" of Middle Eastern countries' weapons may soon be lifted, further issuing a strong warning and expressing severe protests against the Trump administration for pushing ahead with the "Gaza Evacuation Plan" despite Egypt's core interests – whoever tries to drive refugees into Egypt, Egypt will fight them to the end! In our view, this strong warning from Egypt, bolstered by the "J-10CE," cannot be ignored by the US and Israel. The key lies in the fact that China's military strength is extraordinary. China not only has the "J-10CE" and "PL-15," but also drones, robotic dogs, and is even willing to put the "J-35" on the market. Clearly, the "J-10CE" (China's influence in the Middle East) has become the biggest obstacle for the Trump administration to continue pushing forward with the so-called "Gaza Evacuation Plan." China is also influencing the future direction of the Middle East situation through its unique approach. Furthermore, China's influence in the Middle East extends beyond the export of "J-10CE" fighter jets to Egypt. It also exerts significant influence through Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, to the extent that both the US and Russia have chosen to hold their "coffee talks" in Saudi Arabia, trying to appease the country. The attempts by the US and Russia to block the energy pipeline from the Middle East to Europe not only harm the interests of Middle Eastern countries and the EU but also undermine the long-term interests of China's "Belt and Road" initiative. However, it is evident that today's US, and especially Russia, no longer have sufficient capacity to control the initiative in the Middle East "game table." As the saying goes, "It's easy to invite a god, but hard to send one away." Neither the US nor Russia has any idea how the game will proceed, when it will end, or in what form it will conclude. Of course, if the internal "fierce battles" in the US become even more dramatic, this "game table" will become even more interesting to watch. ●Exposing the "Underground Great Wall" strategic project proactively is mainly aimed at deterring Western evil forces In the wee hours of February 14th, FBI agents armed with search warrants raided Pelosi's mansion in San Francisco. After searching the basement, the agents discovered a large amount of cash, gold, and numerous confidential documents. Ultimately, the FBI operation team removed a safe bearing the Pelosi family crest and took away 23 encrypted hard drives, four mobile phones, and a "top-secret" ledger involving arms transactions. Clearly, the internal "fierce battle" in the United States is continuing to become even more sensational! Trump is indeed a vengeful person, returning Pelosi's own medicine to her. Moreover, Musk has exposed shocking corruption in the U.S. social security system, with "360-year-old Americans" still collecting pensions! According to the materials disclosed by Musk, there are over 20 million people aged 100 and above registered in the database as receiving retirement benefits, and more than 11 million centenarians over 120 years old! Musk frankly stated that according to the social security database, there are corresponding numbers of people marked as "not deceased" in every age group! Perhaps "Twilight" is real, and social security benefits are being collected by a large number of "vampires" (in the U.S.). The internal "fierce battle" in the United States is becoming increasingly outrageous! The so-called "American democracy, American law, and American fairness" have become a worldwide joke! In our view, if the Trump administration ultimately fails to enlarge the "pie" and evenly address the demands of various interest groups, it may immediately trigger a "signal to attack" and bring about calamity! In contrast, China is steadily making progress, continuously promoting industrial upgrading and transformation. Comparing the two, the winner is already clear, and the superiority is evident! Furthermore, recently, Chinese state media rarely exposed footage of a certain PLA Rocket Force engineering unit continuing construction during holidays, unveiling the mysterious veil of strategic missile silos. These "Underground Great Walls" hidden deep underground are a solid shield for China's strategic nuclear deterrence force and the key to ensuring second-strike nuclear capability. As early as 2022, when Academician Qian Qihu was interviewed by state media, when asked by a reporter about the extent to which the project he designed could protect us if a country really used nuclear weapons, Qian confidently replied, "No matter how the enemy attacks, including nuclear attacks, our project can ensure our safety." The reason for once again proactively exposing the "Underground Great Wall" is mainly to deter Western evil forces. By the way, given the reality of increasingly poor economic conditions in the U.S. and Russia (nuclear warheads have a shelf life and are very expensive to maintain. Many expired warheads can only be used for power generation or reprocessing. The U.S. and the Soviet Union manufactured a large number of nuclear warheads during the Cold War,claim to be tens of thousands, and many of their warheads have expired), it is questionable how many reliable nuclear warheads they still have. With continuous internal strife and severe corruption in the U.S. and Russia, we estimate that each has around 1,000 reliable nuclear warheads. That is, they do not have more nuclear warheads than China's reserves (or even possibly fewer, especially with the emergence of new military technologies and theories, making it unnecessary to stockpile too many nuclear warheads, and China's reserves may even be slowly increasing), and especially with the support of the 5,000-kilometer-long "Underground Great Wall" strategic project, China's nuclear warheads may be able to "match ten." If we also consider the delivery vehicles (for example, the U.S. "Minuteman III" and Russia's "Sarmat" can only "hit where they are pointed," while China's "DF-31AG" can hit anywhere it is pointed!), the effectiveness of U.S. and Russian nuclear deterrence today is also questionable. [Related Topics] Issue 7805 - How to observe Trump's request for the Zelensky government in Ukraine to "retract" $350 billion in aid from the perspective of "foreign policy serving internal strife"? (February 14, 2025)
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