2025年3月5日，星期三，第1195期

从中国历史上著名阳谋“金刀计”的角度再谈“北溪-2”天然气管道重启事件后续发展

【媒体报道】

3月4日，针对此前一家英国媒体爆料称俄罗斯总统普京的一位密友正谋划在美国投资者支持下重启“北溪-2”天然气管道一事，德国经济部当地时间3月3日在一份声明中表示：“从安全政策的角度来看，摆脱对俄罗斯天然气的依赖对德国政府具有战略重要性，德国政府将坚持这一立场。”

【讨论纪要】

●这样一个局，和已经“入局”的俄罗斯，还有只能被动跟随的特朗普政府，让我们想起了中国历史上著名的阳谋——金刀计

尽管在乌克兰问题上，欧美之间本质上仍在唱“双簧”，但欧盟仍寄希望于在向乌克兰派遣“维和部队”（在美国的保护下）以确保欧洲在瓜分乌克兰的过程中分一杯羹。

鉴于目前俄罗斯输欧能源管线绝大部分（除“土耳其流”外）已被掐断的现实，尽管欧洲需要廉价能源，甚至在心底并不抵触俄罗斯输欧能源管线有希望被重启，但从至少在表面上，至少在目前阶段，在乌克兰问题上，特朗普政府“主和”，欧盟“主战”的情况综合观察，在“北溪-2”天然气管道重启的问题上，欧盟不会公开表示支持。

对特朗普政府来说，由于表面上欧盟和美国在乌克兰问题上的应对立场出现对立，所以特朗普政府没有理由为欧盟和俄罗斯在“北溪-2”天然气管道重启一事上牵线搭桥。此外，在美国内斗正酣之际，特朗普政府也因不能得罪美国传统能源既得利益集团（向欧洲高价出售能源），对“北溪-2”天然气管道重启表示公开支持。当然，特朗普政府也不会表示公开反对，这一点后面详细展开讨论。

在欧盟至少目前阶段于乌克兰问题上“主战”的背景下，俄罗斯主动向欧洲提出重启“北溪-2”天然气管道的可能性基本可以排除。尽管如此，却不能否定，“北溪-2”天然气管道重启对俄罗斯诱惑力很大，甚至比赢得俄乌战争（军事上）的诱惑力还要大。

尽管如此，我们仍然要提醒俄罗斯决策层，这明显就是一个局，俄罗斯“入局”，水就被搅浑，正中策划者的下怀。由于目前特朗普政府仍然试图继续缓和美俄关系，当俄罗斯“入局”后，特朗普政府也就只能被动跟随，至少特朗普政府在“北溪-2”天然气管道重启一事上不能公开反对，否则，俄罗斯完全有理由严重质疑特朗普政府缓和美俄关系之诚意。

无论是谁，出于何种目的，提出并炒作这件事，在俄罗斯看来，即便项目本身短期内不能取得重大进展，但至少在与美国讨价还价的层面上，总体上对俄罗斯有利。这是俄罗斯“凭空”得到的一枚分量不轻的筹码。比如，俄罗斯可以借此筹码在实质性解除对俄制裁，实质性重返叙利亚等问题上对特朗普政府，以“诚意”为由头，提出新的利益诉求。

通过上面的梳理和总结大家不难看出，提出并炒作“北溪-2”天然气管道重启一事的，美国（特朗普政府），欧盟和俄罗斯都“不合适”，唯一“合适”的就是已经“逃离”美国（也包括目前正计划“逃离”美国的）且在欧洲准备重新“安营扎寨”的“拜登们之索罗斯们”。这样一个局，和已经“入局”的俄罗斯，还有只能被动跟随的特朗普政府，让我们想起了中国历史上著名的阳谋——金刀计。

●“特朗普们之马斯克们”“拜登们之索罗斯们”和俄罗斯普京政权彼此制衡的微妙格局

公元280年，司马炎灭孙吴，称帝，史称西晋。司马炎重新统一中国，结束了三国鼎立的分裂局面。后从公元291年开始到公元306年，西晋经历“八王之乱”国力大衰。内迁的各路游牧民族乘机举兵，祸乱中原，是为五胡乱华，大量百姓南渡。公元316年长安失守，公元317年西晋灭亡。北方进入五胡十六国时期。同年，司马睿在建康称帝，史称东晋。

公元367年，五胡十六国中的前燕吴王慕容垂力挽狂澜，抵挡住了东晋的凶猛进攻。然而，慕容垂大获全胜却功高震主，为其引来杀身之祸。为了避难，慕容垂带其长子慕容令逃往前秦（五胡十六国之一，前燕的邻国，也是敌国）。

前秦君主苻认为慕容垂是难得的人才，因此对其礼遇有加，加以重用。但前秦的丞相王猛却对慕容垂有其他看法。王猛认为，慕容垂绝非池中之物，又是前燕皇族，留之必为祸患。再加上王猛嫉妒慕容垂的军事才能，于是决定设计除掉慕容垂父子。值得一提的是，王猛多次劝谏苻坚杀掉慕容垂，但苻坚始终不予应允。

王猛提议攻打前燕，自荐为统帅，并提出让慕容垂的儿子慕容令出任参军，作为向导，苻坚应允，慕容垂也不好拒绝。出征前，王猛突然到访慕容垂，双方把酒甚欢，大有酒逢知己千杯少之势。临别之际，王猛打出“感情牌”，提出与慕容垂交换信物作为友情的凭证，慕容垂随即将佩刀赠予王猛。此后，王猛收买了慕容垂贴身随从金熙。让其带着慕容垂的佩刀给慕容垂的儿子慕容令传递虚假消息称，王猛嫉贤妒能，欲加害你我父子。近期我听说前燕国内政治环境向有利我们的方向转变。我先走一步，你随后跟进，以金熙口信和我的佩刀为凭。慕容令见父亲贴身亲信持佩刀来见，遂坚信不疑，于是从前秦军前叛逃回前燕。慕容垂得知其子叛逃的消息后，吓得魂飞魄散，更无从解释，于是只能出逃。结果中计被王猛擒获。

这就是历史上大名鼎鼎的金刀计。其造成的直接结果却非常耐人寻味，首先，苻坚面对慕容垂父子叛逃之“铁证如山”，仍然选择不处置慕容垂；其次，慕容垂之子慕容令返回前燕后仍得不到皇族信任最终在一次叛乱中被杀；再次，苻坚和慕容垂都知道这是王猛设下的局，但出于各自的利益考量，最终都选择三缄其口，从而让前秦朝廷在相当一段时间内形成了主要以苻坚、王猛和慕容垂彼此制衡的微妙格局；最后，苻坚不听王猛临终之劝告（不要轻信慕容垂，不要贸然对东晋用兵），在慕容垂等人的怂恿下举兵攻晋（东晋），结果于公元383年的淝水之战中惨败。公元384年，慕容垂在荥（xing）阳自称燕王，建立后燕。在慕容垂自立后的第二年，也就是公元385年，苻坚被后秦俘获，最终被缢死。

让我们将讨论的焦点重新放在“北溪-2”天然气管道重启这件事上，对于特朗普政府和普京政府而言，恐怕也都早已看出来是有人做局，但却都因为各自的利益考量，对“北溪-2”天然气管道重启一事三缄其口，既不表示支持，也不表示反对。从而可能在相当一段时间内形成主要以“特朗普们之马斯克们”（特朗普政府）、“拜登们之索罗斯们”（欧洲利益）和俄罗斯普京政权彼此制衡的微妙格局（国际社会不在局中）。

当然，这个微妙格局只是达成某种“阶段性的动态平衡”，随着国际局势的不断复杂发展、演进，最后的结果如何，目前尚未可知。值得一提的是，在，慕容垂建立后燕12年后的公元396年，慕容垂病重去世，由于慕容垂最看重的长子慕容令死于金刀计下，后燕缺乏强有力的政治继承人，仅存续到公元407年便宣告灭亡，政权仅存在不到30年。

●金刀计的确形成了一种阶段性几个主要参与方彼此制衡的微妙局面，但同时也打破了几个主要参与方原来的一些战略构想

在继续展开讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

3月4日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫向媒体表示，俄总统普京已同意作为美国和伊朗核问题谈判的中间人。同日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫表示，俄罗斯和美国驻利雅得代表已同意就伊朗局势举行单独会谈。

俄罗斯目前满心想的都是，按照俄罗斯自己的理解，如何充分利用美国内部恶斗不断，特朗普政府无暇他顾的战略机遇期尽可能淘换到俄罗斯急需的利益，比如，实质性解除俄罗斯的经济，尤其是金融制裁；再比如，有效重返叙利亚。

众所周知，一直以来，美国的中东政策基本上依靠“军事钢钉”以色列和“经济钢钉”沙特来稳固。但是，在2023年10月7日本轮巴以冲突爆发后，随着国际社会不断推动中东地区国家解放和民族独立运动，尽管遭遇2024年12月8日阿萨德政权被颠覆事件，但总体上以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家以及一些中东主要国家，如，埃及，仍在谋求摆脱美国的控制。具体表现就在他们目前正空前积极地介入到巴勒斯坦加沙问题上和叙利亚战后重建相关事宜上。与此同时，受内塔尼亚胡小集团支配的以色列已经成为内塔尼亚胡本人和内塔尼亚胡小集团巩固政权、避免被政治清算的工具，对特朗普而言，大有尾大不掉之势。再加上拜登政府临下台之前，打开了对美国国家长远利益损害极大的“潘多拉的盒子”，也就是颠覆了阿萨德政权，可以说，目前的美国中东政策正在空前的剧烈摇摆，甚至用岌岌可危来形容也毫不为过。

至少从目前阶段来看，在中东问题上一走了之，美国是无论如何也做不到的。既然如此，在特朗普政府看来，俄罗斯要求有效重返叙利亚，甚至一定程度上恢复伊朗这个俄罗斯在中东施加影响力的“抓手”，那么，不妨也反向利用俄罗斯有效重返叙利亚来巩固美国在中东地区的影响力和存在。

这也是上面我们借金刀计的历史典故初步评估，在相当一段时间内或形成主要以“特朗普们之马斯克们”（特朗普政府）、“拜登们之索罗斯们”（欧洲利益）和俄罗斯普京政权彼此制衡的微妙格局的一种具体表现。也就是说，大家都知道“北溪-2”天然气管道重启一事就是一个局，但大家都心照不宣地继续按照这个局搭建起来的框架逻辑走下去。

值得一提的是，金刀计的确形成了一种阶段性几个主要参与方彼此制衡的微妙局面，但同时也打破了几个主要参与方原来的一些战略构想。以特朗普为例，在其原计划中，原本是要通过强行压服的方式协助内塔尼亚胡小集团实现所谓“大胜的大胜”，从而在美国内部恶斗日益激烈的过程中，尽可能拉拢主要掌控媒体资源的所谓“犹太资本”，也就是美国内部政治势力中的“关键少数”。而现在，似乎特朗普政府不得不要对此进行调整，在俄方提出有效重返叙利亚后，考虑是否与伊朗政府“重新对话”了。而对于以色列来说，可能要面对某种让其足够信任的与伊朗和平相处的戏剧性一幕，姑且就叫作“以伊新关系”吧。

其中，伊朗当然要实质性放弃之前的反以政治路线，更要实质性放弃核武装的战略选项。当然，所谓的“以伊新关系”也要服务于特朗普政府的中东政策——虽表面上不能得罪以沙特为主的海湾阿拉伯国家，包括一些中东主要国家，如，埃及，但不妨碍打造某种制衡他们，包括制衡在叙利亚聚水后续发展中积极介入的欧盟，以及站在以沙特为主的海湾阿拉伯国家背后的中国的政治框架。

从以上讨论不难看出，精心策划“北溪-2”天然气管道重启一事的幕后推手们显然深谙帝国主义国家之间的博弈之道，首先，好这一口的就是俄罗斯，而“特朗普们之马斯克们”也好，欧盟也好，以色列也好，伊朗也好，都是“帝国主义”和“大国沙文主义”的“忠实信徒”。当他们在“北溪-2”版金刀计的作用下纷纷入局后，身为幕后推手的“拜登们之索罗斯们”也就达到了将水搅浑的目的，一方面给“特朗们之马斯克们”设置陷阱，设置障碍，设置困难；另一方面也为自己在日趋激烈的美国内部恶斗过程中争取更多时间和机会。

●假以时日，如果不能及时“改出”的话，特朗普政府又如何去赢得美国内部“只有更激烈，没有最激烈”的内部恶斗？

被“北溪-2”天然气管道重启其实鼓捣的心思空前活泛的俄罗斯，国际社会要高度警惕，俄罗斯就在中国的周边，对中国从来防范有加。而现在俄罗斯又把手伸到了缅甸，而在此前，俄罗斯已经承诺帮助越南建核电站。

接下来，俄罗斯可能会把手伸到蒙古，伸到阿富汗，甚至中亚五国，对此，国际社会坦然面对即可：

第一，俄乌战争仍在继续，能不能停火，什么时候停火，什么性质的停火，如何停火都是一个个的问号；

第二，在“第一”的基础上，“北溪-2”天然气管道重启项目的设局者也好，特朗普政府也罢，在应对的过程中仍然都在继续牺牲美国国家的长远利益。其中一个典型的损害就是完全不顾欧美关系。也就是说，随着国际局势的不断复杂演进，欧美矛盾的日益加深，欧盟之间完全可能假戏真唱，从“演双簧”演变为真正意义的“公开争吵”；

第三，在“第二”的基础上，乌克兰问题会变得更加复杂；“北溪-2”天然气管道重启事件的后续发展会变得更麻烦；以叙利亚局势后续发展和巴勒斯坦加沙问题为代表的中东局势会变得更混乱。对此，俄罗斯都或直接或间接地卷入其中，显然，俄罗斯的麻烦远远没有结束。

值得一提的是，我们注意到了俄罗斯当局向以色列发出邀请参加于2025年5月9日在莫斯科红场举行的卫国战争胜利日庆典的新闻报道。

对此我们想要着重指出的是，当初，谴责以色列内塔尼亚胡政府在加沙暴行的俄罗斯在哪儿？也许俄罗斯会狡辩称，邀请其参加是为了纪念二战期间纳粹德国对欧洲犹太人进行的种族灭绝式大屠杀。但问题在于，现在的以色列内塔尼亚胡政府在巴勒斯坦加沙地带，约旦河西岸的一切所作所为和当年的纳粹一般无二。俄罗斯当局这样做，是真的在纪念二战，还是为了自己的政治私利和特朗普政府“打配合”给欧盟、以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家，以及一些重要的中东国家，如，埃及看？

到现在为止，乌克兰和中东已经分别摆出“一桌麻将”，其中一桌上坐着的是美国和俄罗斯，另一桌上坐着的则是中国和欧盟。美国摆出了一副随时出卖其传统盟友欧盟的架势，俄罗斯也摆出了一副随时出卖其传统盟友伊朗的姿态，而这两个自2022年2月4日爆发，至今仍在进行的实际上的死对头，美国和俄罗斯正在“握手言和”。这一局面着实讽刺。

友情提醒特朗普政府的是，无论是“武斗”还是“文斗”，目前阶段特朗普政府都必须帮助内塔尼亚胡小集团达到其预设的政治目的，这就意味着美国想要拉拢沙特这条路是走不通的。在内塔尼亚胡的“大以色列国父梦”中，加沙地带、约旦河西岸和戈兰高地，一个也不能少！既然如此，仅在中东问题上，特朗普政府就很难处理好欧美关系，尤其是“必选项”中美关系。而这与特朗普政治只有处理好对华、对欧、对俄关系中的“大多数”才有可能赢得美国内斗之原计划相比，显然出现了较大“偏差”，特朗普政府似乎只能去不断努力处理好“门槛儿”水涨船高的俄美关系，假以时日，如果不能及时“改出”的话，特朗普政府又如何去赢得美国内部“只有更激烈，没有最激烈”的内部恶斗？

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Wednesday, March 5, 2025, Issue No. 1195

Re-examining the "Nord Stream 2" Pipeline Restart from the Perspective of China’s Famous "Golden Knife Scheme"

[Media Coverage]

On March 4, in response to a British media report claiming that a close friend of Russian President Putin was planning to restart the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline with the support of U.S. investors, the German Ministry of Economics issued a statement on March 3, saying: "From a security policy perspective, reducing dependence on Russian natural gas is of strategic importance to the German government, and the German government will adhere to this position."

【Discussion Summary】

●This Situation, with Russia Already "In the Game" and the Trump Administration Forced to Follow, Reminds Us of China’s Famous "Golden Knife Scheme"

Although the U.S. and Europe are essentially still playing a "double act" on the Ukraine issue, the EU still hopes to send "peacekeeping forces" (under U.S. protection) to Ukraine to ensure it can secure a share in the division of Ukraine.

Given the reality that most of Russia’s energy pipelines to Europe (except for "Turkish Stream") have been cut off, although Europe needs cheap energy and may not inherently oppose the restart of Russian energy pipelines, at least on the surface, and at least for now, the EU will not publicly support the restart of the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline, especially as the Trump administration is "pro-peace" on Ukraine while the EU is "pro-war."

For the Trump administration, since the EU and the U.S. appear to have opposing stances on Ukraine, there is no reason for the Trump administration to facilitate talks between the EU and Russia on restarting "Nord Stream 2." Additionally, amid intense internal U.S. struggles, the Trump administration cannot afford to alienate traditional U.S. energy interest groups (who profit from selling energy to Europe at high prices) by publicly supporting the restart of "Nord Stream 2." Of course, the Trump administration will not openly oppose it either, a point we will discuss in detail later.

Given that the EU is currently "pro-war" on Ukraine, it is unlikely that Russia would proactively propose restarting "Nord Stream 2" to Europe. Nevertheless, the restart of "Nord Stream 2" holds significant appeal for Russia, even greater than winning the Russia-Ukraine war militarily.

However, we must remind the Russian decision-makers that this is clearly a trap. If Russia "enters the game," the waters will be muddied, playing right into the hands of the planners. Since the Trump administration is still trying to ease U.S.-Russia relations, once Russia is "in the game," the Trump administration will have no choice but to follow, at least by not openly opposing the restart of "Nord Stream 2." Otherwise, Russia would have every reason to seriously question the Trump administration’s sincerity in easing relations.

Regardless of who proposed and hyped this issue, and for what purpose, from Russia’s perspective, even if the project itself does not make significant progress in the short term, it at least gives Russia a substantial bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. For example, Russia could use this chip to demand substantive sanctions relief and a return to Syria, framing these as tests of the Trump administration’s "sincerity."

From the above analysis, it is clear that the U.S. (the Trump administration), the EU, and Russia are all "unsuitable" for proposing and hyping the restart of "Nord Stream 2." The only "suitable" ones are the "Bidens and Soroses," who have "fled" the U.S. (or are planning to) and are preparing to "settle" in Europe. This situation, with Russia already "in the game" and the Trump administration forced to follow, reminds us of China’s famous "Golden Knife Scheme."

●The Delicate Balance Among the "Trumps and Musks," the "Bidens and Soroses," and Putin’s Russia

In 280 AD, Sima Yan destroyed Sun Wu and declared himself emperor, marking the beginning of the Western Jin Dynasty. Sima Yan reunified China, ending the Three Kingdoms period. However, from 291 to 306 AD, the Western Jin Dynasty experienced the "War of the Eight Princes," which severely weakened the country. Taking advantage of this, various nomadic tribes invaded, plunging the Central Plains into chaos—this was the "Five Barbarians' Invasion," which forced many people to flee south. In 316 AD, Chang’an fell, and in 317 AD, the Western Jin Dynasty collapsed. The north entered the era of the Sixteen Kingdoms. In the same year, Sima Rui declared himself emperor in Jiankang, marking the beginning of the Eastern Jin Dynasty.

In 367 AD, Murong Chui, the Prince of Wu of the Former Yan (one of the Sixteen Kingdoms), turned the tide and repelled a fierce attack by the Eastern Jin. However, his overwhelming success made him a threat to the throne, leading to a plot against his life. To escape, Murong Chui fled to the Former Qin (another of the Sixteen Kingdoms and a neighbor and enemy of the Former Yan) with his eldest son, Murong Ling.

The Former Qin ruler, Fu Jian, saw Murong Chui as a rare talent and treated him with great respect, entrusting him with important positions. However, the Former Qin’s prime minister, Wang Meng, had a different view. Wang Meng believed that Murong Chui was no ordinary man and, as a member of the Former Yan royal family, posed a potential threat. Jealous of Murong Chui’s military prowess, Wang Meng decided to eliminate him and his son. Notably, Wang Meng repeatedly advised Fu Jian to kill Murong Chui, but Fu Jian refused.

Wang Meng proposed an attack on the Former Yan, volunteered to lead the campaign, and suggested that Murong Ling serve as a guide. Fu Jian agreed, and Murong Chui could not refuse. Before the campaign, Wang Meng suddenly visited Murong Chui, and the two shared a drink, appearing to bond deeply. At parting, Wang Meng played the "emotional card," suggesting they exchange tokens of friendship. Murong Chui then gave Wang Meng his personal knife. Later, Wang Meng bribed Murong Chui’s close attendant, Jin Xi, to deliver a false message to Murong Ling, claiming that Wang Meng was jealous of their talents and planned to harm them. Jin Xi also claimed that the political environment in the Former Yan had turned in their favor and urged Murong Ling to follow his father’s lead, using the knife as proof. Seeing his father’s trusted attendant with the knife, Murong Ling believed the message and defected from the Former Qin army back to the Former Yan. When Murong Chui learned of his son’s defection, he was terrified and could not explain, so he fled as well, only to be captured by Wang Meng.

This is the famous "Golden Knife Scheme" in history. Its direct results are intriguing: first, Fu Jian, faced with "irrefutable evidence" of the Murongs’ defection, still chose not to punish Murong Chui; second, after returning to the Former Yan, Murong Ling was still distrusted by the royal family and was eventually killed in a rebellion; third, both Fu Jian and Murong Chui knew this was Wang Meng’s scheme, but for their own interests, they chose to remain silent, creating a delicate balance among Fu Jian, Wang Meng, and Murong Chui in the Former Qin court for a considerable period; finally, Fu Jian ignored Wang Meng’s dying advice (not to trust Murong Chui and not to rashly attack the Eastern Jin) and, under Murong Chui’s encouragement, launched an attack on the Eastern Jin, suffering a devastating defeat at the Battle of Feishui in 383 AD. In 384 AD, Murong Chui declared himself King of Yan in Xingyang, establishing the Later Yan. The following year, in 385 AD, Fu Jian was captured by the Later Qin and eventually strangled to death.

Returning to the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline restart, it is likely that both the Trump administration and the Putin government have already recognized that someone set this trap. However, for their own interests, they have chosen to remain silent, neither supporting nor opposing the restart. This may create a delicate balance among the "Trumps and Musks" (the Trump administration), the "Bidens and Soroses" (European interests), and Putin’s Russia for a considerable period (with the international community not involved).

Of course, this delicate balance is only a "temporary dynamic equilibrium." As the international situation continues to evolve, the final outcome remains unknown. Notably, 12 years after Murong Chui established the Later Yan in 396 AD, he died of illness. Since his most valued son, Murong Ling, had died in the "Golden Knife Scheme," the Later Yan lacked a strong political successor and collapsed in 407 AD, lasting less than 30 years.

●The "Golden Knife Scheme" Did Create a Temporary Balance Among the Major Players, but It Also Disrupted Their Original Strategic Plans

Before continuing the discussion, let’s look at another news report.

On March 4, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov told the media that President Putin had agreed to act as a mediator in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. On the same day, Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov stated that Russian and U.S. representatives in Riyadh had agreed to hold separate talks on the Iran situation.

Russia is currently focused on how to take advantage of the U.S. internal strife and the Trump administration’s distraction to secure urgently needed benefits, such as substantive sanctions relief and a return to Syria.

As is well known, U.S. Middle East policy has long relied on Israel as the "military nail" and Saudi Arabia as the "economic nail." However, after the outbreak of the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7, 2023, and with the international community pushing for liberation and independence movements in the Middle East, despite the overthrow of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia and other major Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt, are still seeking to break free from U.S. control. This is evident in their unprecedented involvement in the Gaza issue and Syria’s post-war reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel, dominated by Netanyahu’s small group, has become a tool for Netanyahu and his allies to consolidate power and avoid political reckoning, posing a significant challenge for Trump. Additionally, the Biden administration, before leaving office, opened the "Pandora’s Box" of overthrowing the Assad regime, which is extremely detrimental to U.S. long-term interests. In short, U.S. Middle East policy is now in unprecedented turmoil, if not outright peril.

At least for now, the U.S. cannot simply walk away from the Middle East. Therefore, from the Trump administration’s perspective, if Russia demands a return to Syria and even seeks to restore Iran as a "lever" for Russian influence in the Middle East, the U.S. might as well use Russia’s return to Syria to consolidate its own influence and presence in the region.

This is a specific manifestation of the temporary balance among the "Trumps and Musks" (the Trump administration), the "Bidens and Soroses" (European interests), and Putin’s Russia, as we preliminarily assessed using the "Golden Knife Scheme" analogy. In other words, everyone knows that the "Nord Stream 2" restart is a trap, but they tacitly continue to operate within the framework of this scheme.

Notably, while the "Golden Knife Scheme" did create a temporary balance among the major players, it also disrupted their original strategic plans. For example, Trump’s original plan was to forcefully assist Netanyahu’s small group in achieving a "great victory" to win over the so-called "Jewish capital," which controls media resources and is a "key minority" in U.S. internal politics, amid increasingly intense internal struggles. Now, it seems the Trump administration must adjust this plan, considering whether to "re-engage" with the Iranian government after Russia’s demand for a return to Syria. For Israel, it may have to face the dramatic scenario of establishing a "new relationship" with Iran, one based on sufficient trust.

In this scenario, Iran would have to substantially abandon its previous anti-Israel political stance and its strategic option of nuclear armament. Of course, this so-called "new Iran-Israel relationship" would also serve the Trump administration’s Middle East policy—while not openly offending Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia and other major Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt, it would not hinder the creation of a political framework to counterbalance them, including the EU, which is actively involved in Syria’s post-war development, and China, which stands behind the Gulf Arab countries.

From the above discussion, it is clear that the masterminds behind the "Nord Stream 2" restart are well-versed in the dynamics of imperialist power struggles. First, Russia is eager for this, while the "Trumps and Musks," the EU, Israel, and Iran are all "devout followers" of "imperialism" and "great power chauvinism." Once they are drawn into the "Nord Stream 2" version of the "Golden Knife Scheme," the "Bidens and Soroses," as the masterminds, will have achieved their goal of muddying the waters—on one hand, setting traps, obstacles, and difficulties for the "Trumps and Musks"; on the other hand, buying more time and opportunities for themselves in the increasingly fierce U.S. internal struggles.

●If the Trump Administration Cannot "Exit" This Situation in Time, How Will It Win the "Only More Intense, Never Most Intense" Internal Struggles?

Russia, now extremely active due to the "Nord Stream 2" restart, must be highly vigilant for the international community. Russia is on China’s periphery and has always been wary of China. Now, Russia has extended its influence to Myanmar, having previously committed to helping Vietnam build a nuclear power plant.

Next, Russia may extend its influence to Mongolia, Afghanistan, and even the five Central Asian countries. The international community should face this calmly:

First, the Russia-Ukraine war continues, and whether it will cease, when, under what conditions, and how are all open questions;

Second, based on the first point, both the masterminds behind the "Nord Stream 2" restart and the Trump administration are continuing to sacrifice U.S. long-term interests in their responses. One typical damage is the complete disregard for U.S.-Europe relations. In other words, as the international situation evolves and U.S.-Europe contradictions deepen, the EU and the U.S. may transition from "playing a double act" to truly "public quarrels";

Third, based on the second point, the Ukraine issue will become more complex; the "Nord Stream 2" restart will become more troublesome; and the Middle East situation, represented by Syria’s post-war development and the Gaza issue, will become more chaotic. Russia is directly or indirectly involved in all of this, meaning its troubles are far from over.

Notably, we have noticed reports that the Russian government has invited Israel to attend the Victory Day celebration in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, 2025.

We want to emphasize: where was Russia when it condemned the Netanyahu government’s atrocities in Gaza? Perhaps Russia would argue that the invitation is to commemorate the Nazi genocide of European Jews during World War II. However, the Netanyahu government’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank are no different from those of the Nazis. Is Russia truly commemorating World War II, or is it pursuing its own political interests and "cooperating" with the Trump administration to send a message to the EU, Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, and other important Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt?

So far, Ukraine and the Middle East have each set up a "mahjong table." At one table sit the U.S. and Russia; at the other sit China and the EU. The U.S. is ready to betray its traditional ally, the EU, and Russia is ready to betray its traditional ally, Iran. These two actual adversaries since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 4, 2022, are now "shaking hands and making peace." This situation is truly ironic.

A friendly reminder to the Trump administration: whether through "force" or "diplomacy," the Trump administration must now help Netanyahu’s small group achieve its political goals, meaning the U.S. cannot win over Saudi Arabia. In Netanyahu’s "Greater Israel dream," Gaza, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights are all indispensable! Therefore, on the Middle East issue alone, the Trump administration will find it difficult to handle U.S.-Europe relations, especially the "essential" U.S.-China relations. Compared to the original plan of handling "most" of U.S.-China, U.S.-Europe, and U.S.-Russia relations to win internal struggles, this represents a significant "deviation." The Trump administration seems to be forced to focus increasingly on handling the rising "threshold" of U.S.-Russia relations. If it cannot "exit" this situation in time, how will it win the "only more intense, never most intense" internal struggles?

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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