2025年3月26日，星期三，第1212期

通过对过去10年国际局势演进的梳理，小谈为何特朗普欲效仿尼克松访华毫无成功之可能性

【媒体报道】

3月26日，美国白宫公布美方代表团在沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得分别与乌克兰、俄罗斯代表团进行技术层面会谈的成果。同日，俄罗斯公布俄美利雅得会谈主要成果。各方就确保黑海航行安全、暂停打击能源设施等达成共识。乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天在会见媒体时说，乌方没有就领土问题与美国和俄罗斯达成任何共识，美方同意将于近期就停火细节举行新一轮会谈。

【讨论纪要】

●“雅尔塔体系V2.0”是特朗普第二次成为美国总统后，在“表面战略扩张，实际战略收缩”之总体态势下，推行“合纵连横，远交近攻”下的产物

在上一次回顾中，我们提到了“雅尔塔体系V2.0”这个新概念。本次回顾我们将结合对过去10年国际局势演进的梳理，和大家更深入展开讨论。

雅尔塔体系是二战后由美、英、苏三国通过一系列会议确立的国际政治格局，得名于1945年初在苏联雅尔塔举行的雅尔塔会议。这一体系深刻影响了战后世界秩序。值得强调的是，尽管雅尔塔体系的形成源于二战后期，由美、英、苏三国通过开罗会议、德黑兰会议、雅尔塔会议和波茨坦会议等，确立的战后世界秩序基本原则，但雅尔塔体系的核心特点却是‌两极格局‌，也就是以美苏“共管地球”为中心的“G2模式”。从之后的历史来看，英国最终也沦为雅尔塔体系的政治牺牲品。

“雅尔塔体系V2.0”，是特朗普第二次成为美国总统后，在“表面战略扩张，实际战略收缩”之总体态势下，推行“合纵连横，远交近攻”政策下的产物。是美国试图挖中国墙角必须借助的某种以美国和苏联解体后最直接继承者——俄罗斯，组成类似“大欧罗巴计划”那种类似“欧俄双中心”的“美俄双中心”。

●“大欧罗巴计划”的前世今生

说到“大欧罗巴计划”，我们不妨通过简单梳理过去10年国际局势的演化进程，通过回顾“大欧罗巴计划”的前世今生侧面观察“雅尔塔体系V2.0”。

2012年5月25日夜间，叙利亚中部霍姆斯省胡拉镇发生了大约90人被杀害的惨剧，其中包括32名儿童，是为“胡拉惨案”。以此为标志，西方将叙利亚局势全面引爆，国际社会在叙利亚问题（中东问题）的“止损点”被“击穿”。当时，东方时事解读就强烈建议，以中俄为核心的国际社会（当时中国用国家信用背书，支持俄罗斯不允许外国武装势力进入叙利亚）要么奋起反击，要么立刻止损（撤出）。

所谓“奋起反击”指的是，俄罗斯应支持叙利亚阿萨德政府将战火导出叙利亚，导向以色列（美国中东政策的“军事钢钉”）或沙特（美国中东政策的“经济钢钉”），以不惜中东彻底大乱之决心“以乱制乱”。而所谓“止损”指的是，如果俄罗斯做不到“奋起反击”，那就暂时舍弃叙利亚，迅速抽身，将注意力集中在俄罗斯周边地区，比如乌克兰、格鲁吉亚、白俄罗斯等方向，伺机而动。但遗憾的是，俄罗斯最终应对失误，即没有奋起反击，也没有止损，最终落入西方为其精心设下的“时间陷阱”无法自拔。在那之后，中国果断中东止损，宣布“中东无私利”，转身对外全力经略南海、对内坚定践行群众路线。

在“中东时间陷阱”的外溢效应的作用下，2013年年底到2014年年初，在中国周边地区的泰国爆发了“泰国之乱”。不难看出，泰国从来都是反华势力在中国周边地区制造混乱、动荡，恶化中国周边地区安全环境的重要切入点之一。由于中国在南海战略上的应对极其强硬，深感中国坚定决心和强大能力的西方不得不将矛头转向乌克兰，进而策动乌克兰政变。2014年2月22日，乌克兰危机全面爆发，亲俄的时任乌克兰总统亚努科维奇逃亡俄罗斯。随后，乌克兰最高拉达（议会）罢免了亚努克维奇的总统职务。于是，“中东时间陷阱”的外溢效应虽然首先“开花”于“泰国之乱”，但“结果”在乌克兰。

乌克兰出事后，我们再次建议俄罗斯要在乌克兰之外寻求解决乌克兰问题的办法，但俄罗斯一错再错，始终在乌克兰方向寻求解决乌克兰问题的途径。最终导致西方用乌克兰之乱彻底套死了俄罗斯的中东政策。

在那之后，ISIS突然“空降”伊拉克（西方全力支持的雇佣军）北部摩苏尔地区，短短几周的时间内，几百人（ISIS极端武装）就打得几万伊拉克政府军一路溃散到巴格达。此后，ISIS迅速越过伊拉克和叙利亚边境，并占领了大半个叙利亚。值得一提的是，这是西方策动“乌克兰之乱”折回中东的主要意图之一，初步通过ISIS测试俄罗斯到底有几斤几两。

2014年是一个不安的年份，尤其对中国来说。

早在2014年年初，东方时事解读就反复强调一个观点：欧洲最晚在当年6月份降息。结果，欧洲直到2015年5月都没有降息，结果进入6月份之后欧洲央行突然宣布降息。同样是在2015年初，东方时事解读指出，一旦欧洲央行6月降息，美联储就最早可以在2015年8月开始加息（最后因“七月流火，八月未央”一直拖到了2015年年底）。

这两个观点之所以一并提出是因为在东方时事解读的长期观察与评估中，“这个最晚6月降息与最早8月加息”绝不是单纯的金融政策，而是欧美计划联手、着眼于在南方经济体中的经济、特别是金融的薄弱环节、比如印度与巴西，甚至俄罗斯定向发动攻击、以定向引爆局部金融甚至经济危机，企图“顺势”实质性展开“水淹南方”计划、并同时瞄准中国经济、利用“毒贷款”进行“金融狙击”，从而意图在“水淹南方”初始阶段，令南方经济体中实力最强的中国经济特别是金融无暇他顾！

基于对“毒贷款”的多层次观察，我们把西方邪恶势力决定这么做的时间点确定在2014年年底，西方金融通过“量宽”放出天量流动性、经某些金融手段，比如，通过中国部分地产商海外融资、锁定埋在中国经济运行中的“毒贷款”，并达到数量上的顶峰，也就是需要集中还款的一个高峰。只有欧洲央行“最晚6月份降息”之后才会为“最早8月美联储就可以加息”，也就是发动攻击而腾出“欧美经济特别是金融政策协调”的必要空间。

2014年的情况非常危急，东方时事解读一度用“（注：西方邪恶势力）图穷匕见”来描述当时的危险情况，反复强调中国要做最坏打算。我们坚信我们会取得胜利，但是中国即便胜利，也是“惨胜”。

此外，东方时事解读至少提前半年对此事有过提前评估（2014年底2015年初）：到了2015年的七月底，如果俄罗斯没有实质性配合国际社会有效干扰，甚至打断当时对国际社会危害极大的西方“微调”后的中东战略的话，那么中国一定会做出相关战略调整。需要补充的是，这意味着俄罗斯什么也不做，也就是即便没有形成伊核协议，但也形成了对西方基于“时间因素”层面的妥协。

其本质是俄罗斯妄图“祸水东引”。而中国通过果断主动调整相关经济、金融政策，也就是：公布黄金储备，宣布调降经济增长率，尤其是汇率改革，释放全面冲击美国金融体系的强烈信号。有趣的是，这次冲击的重点就在债券市场，并严重打乱美国发债的节奏和规律。大家知道，债券市场是“华尔街永动机”的基础的基础，美国发债的节奏和规律大乱，迫使西方不得不跟随中国政策的调整而调整，再度将全部战略压力转向俄罗斯，最终导致俄罗斯复盘叙利亚政策（9月底），是为“九月授衣”。而中国调整政策，冲击西方金融稳定，最终导致俄罗斯“吃瓜”，我们将其形容为“如有雷同，纯属巧合”。2015年也成为西方金融霸权的“转折年”。西方金融霸权从“绝对”的神坛跌落成为“相对霸权”。也是从2015年开始，中美央行“两个金喇叭”正式开始“各吹各的调”，标志着中美全面竞争的正式开始。

在俄罗斯“军事复盘叙利亚”后，到2015年年底之前，上演了震惊世界的“两机事件”。

2015年10月31日，俄罗斯科加雷姆航空公司客机A321（航班号7K9268，注册号EI-ETJ）在埃及坠毁。ISIS（伊斯兰国）发表声明称其位于埃及西奈分支将客机击落，目的是报复俄罗斯在叙利亚的空袭。随后，俄罗斯总统普京誓言对ISIS西奈分支使用战术核武器进行报复，然而最终不了了之，是为“两机事件”之“客机事件”。

2015年11月24日，俄罗斯一架“苏24”战机在土耳其与叙利亚边境坠毁。事后，土方诡辩称俄方军机率先侵入土耳其领空，遂将其击落，而俄罗斯的处理方式仅为与土耳其辩解“有没有侵入土耳其领空”，而未按照东方时事解读的建议那样“打（击落俄罗斯战机的土方军机起飞的机场）了再说”，是为“两机事件”之“军机事件”。

“两机事件”中，西方上演了非常经典的“伴随战略攻击之战略测试（极限战略讹诈）”。也恰恰是“两机事件”，让本来对俄罗斯之军事大国禀赋十分忌惮的北约（欧盟）从开始的“胆战心惊、四处甩锅推责（防止北约与俄罗斯直接冲突导致北约因无法有效动用‘集体自卫权’而面临法律死亡的被动局面）”变为“肆无忌惮，有恃无恐”。在那之后，北约军事力量开始全面进入叙利亚，直到叙利亚幼发拉底河东岸全部领土丢失。

西方对俄罗斯基本上取得了预想效果，但在中国这边没有取得任何效果。于是，西方便挟在叙利亚问题上取得的“最新战果”讹诈、威胁、挑衅中国。这就有了2016年的“南海非法仲裁案”。当然，作为“胡萝卜”的一面，美国为了拉拢中国，开始用“中美G2模式”忽悠中国。当时双方都有判断，中国认为，不顶上去，南海以后怕是控制不住的。美国认为，2016年将中国压下去以后就没有事后的那些麻烦。所以双方都下了决心，立足于打（当时美西太舰队司令哈里斯狂妄叫嚣，“今晚就打”）。

2016年7月12日，海牙国际仲裁法庭对南海仲裁案做出“最终裁决”，判菲律宾“胜诉”，并否定了“九段线”，还宣称中国对南海海域没有“历史性所有权”“南海仲裁案”事件爆发。“南海非法仲裁案”也称“菲律宾控告中国案”，是一个临时组建的非法仲裁庭，就菲律宾阿基诺三世政府单方面提起的南海仲裁案进行的所谓“裁决”，其实质是披着法律外衣的政治闹剧。而当时围绕非法的“南海仲裁案”跳得最高的，除了菲律宾以外就是越南（唯一能在“南海问题”上给中国找麻烦）。

为应对美国等西方国家一手炮制的非法的“南海非法仲裁案”，震慑南海方向的宵小，2016年7月12日下午4点33分，海军三大舰队的近百舰艇和数十架飞机齐聚海南岛至西沙某海域，一场复杂电磁环境下的实兵实弹对抗演习正式开幕。这场大规模军事演习是以“真打”为基础进行准备的（当时进行了局部动员，很多指战员都立下遗书，甚至收殓烈士遗骸的后事都有所准备。此外，刚刚下水正在海试的052D型驱逐舰相关技术人员和专家拒绝中央要求他们在湛江下舰，以“岂曰无衣”的大无畏精神与前线官兵共赴前线），即：如果越南敢于在南海方向冒出来为它国“火中取栗”，则中国会动用一切手段将越南“按下去”（日本能在“台湾问题”上给中国找麻烦，如果日本敢飞出来，就将其“打下来”）。

对于这样强硬的中国，美国人最终选择夹着尾巴逃跑了。此后，西方不得不这个时候才搞出了所谓“大欧罗巴计划”。

如果我们将“地中海计划”称为“计划内计划”，那么，在欧美初步合流，尤其深度合流后，美国一家独自运营的“大中东计划”与欧盟一家独自运营的“地中海计划”合成的“大欧罗巴计划”就可以称为“计划外计划”。启动的契机是土耳其军事政变后，俄土关系从“两机事件”之初的剑拔主张，突然之间变得十分缓和。乌克兰亲俄的亚努科维奇政权倒台后，俄罗斯清楚地知道，这次的“主角”是欧洲人，美国人只是“配角”。这才有了时任美国国务卿克里亲自拎着手提箱访问莫斯科，对俄罗斯极尽威逼利诱之能事，妄图实现实质性瓦解中俄战略互信。

值得一提的是，当时的欧盟在“大欧罗巴计划”中发挥了重要作用，这也就有了最开始我们提到的“大欧罗巴计划”之“欧俄双中心”的这个特征。与之相对的是其具有的另一个特征：虚拟拉拢中国，实际上排斥中国；虚拟排斥美国，实际上拉拢美国。

●中国不仅不接受“中美G2模式”，更没有类似雅尔塔体系那套思维

通过上一节对“大欧罗巴计划”前世今生的回顾来观察今天的特朗普对外政策，恐怕是遇到了新问题。所谓“新问题”之一，就是今天的中国比俄罗斯强大多，亦或是当年的苏联也不能与今天的中国相提并论；所谓“新问题”之二，就是中国的原则性不仅让美国印象深刻，而且让美国吃尽苦头——2016年中美南海对峙，2017年“洞朗事件”，从2019年中美贸易战，2021年中美阿拉斯加“拍桌子”（之后中俄外长桂林会晤，此后是王毅外长的中东四国之行，喊出“中东是中东人民的中东”直到今天），2022年佩洛西窜台等等；所谓“新问题”之三，就是今天的美国，乃至整个西方可以说处于二战之后最虚弱的时期。

以上三点或是特朗普想起越战，想起尼克松的主要原因所在。尼克松当年为了在美国全球战略不崩塌的前提下摆脱越战泥潭，不得不访问中国，并在成功缓和中美关系后，借中国的“肩膀”前往苏联访问，进而让雅尔塔体系得以延续。

苏联和今天的俄罗斯都奉行帝国主义和大国沙文主义，以第三方核心利益做交易、做筹码更是毫无顾忌。今天俄罗斯又将乌克兰甩在一边，和美国谈瓜分乌克兰的事情。而中国不仅不接受“中美G2模式”，更没有类似雅尔塔体系那套思维。今天的中国不仅战略十分主动，而且经济实力全面超过美国。中国不是当年的苏联（其一，中国不搞帝国主义；其二，中国的综合实力已全面超过美国）。所以，特朗普仿效当年尼克松访华，通过先有效缓和美俄关系后再有效缓和中美关系的企图注定失败（其一，还是中国不搞帝国主义；其二，中国的综合实力远远超过俄罗斯）。

●特朗普政府要玩雅尔塔体系V2.0，国际社会欣然面对，更可以大加利用

特朗普政府要玩什么雅尔塔体系V2.0，国际社会欣然面对，更可以大加利用。前文提到了英国，虽然雅尔塔体系的形成源于二战后期，由美、英、苏三国通过开罗会议、德黑兰会议、雅尔塔会议和波茨坦会议等确立，但英国却成为雅尔塔体系的牺牲品。可以说，英国对于雅尔塔体系有着痛彻心扉的记忆。而与英国有同样糟糕记忆的还有法国。当年恰恰是在美苏的合谋之下，欧洲失去了对苏伊士运河的绝对掌控。所以，某种意义上说，英法对于雅尔塔体系V2.0恐怕是最为敏感和警惕的。

值得一提的是，中国也因雅尔塔体系付出巨大代价，那就是蒙古的独立。欧洲担心的是中国会不会和美国玩雅尔塔体系V2.0。中国就并不因为美俄关系缓和急于邀请特朗普访华让欧洲就稍微有些放心。一旦俄美关系在乌克兰问题上定型，欧洲恐怕只能靠向中国。

值得一提的是，在欧洲最终能否决策靠向中国的问题上，恐怕起决定性意义的还属欧洲资本利益。尽管目前欧美仍处于合流状态下，尽管美国资本利益仍然代言西方资本利益。但随着美国内部恶斗日甚一日，美国资本利益内部也已经分裂。比如，那些已经逃到，或正计划逃到欧盟，意图“重敲锣，另开张”的“拜登们之索罗斯们”。如果他们与现在的欧洲利益相结合，那是不是就可以决定某些欧洲的重大事务呢？比如，彻底放弃“大欧罗巴计划”，靠向中国，共同抵制雅尔塔体系V2.0。

讽刺的是，俄罗斯还没有被美国拉过去，我们倒是将欧盟，甚至日、韩（欧盟被出卖，加拿大被吞并，日韩还算什么？他们北约都不是。特朗普不仅加关税，还要加军费）这些美国的传统盟友们从美国身边拉开了。当然，在这个问题上，我们只关注过程，不关注结果。

最后需要提醒美国的那些传统盟友们，以及目前在雅尔塔体系V2.0问题上心猿意马的俄罗斯的是：

第一，美国自越战之后之所以能够存在到今天，时任美国总统尼克松之所以能够全身而退，首先一条就是做大了“蛋糕”，也就是产业资本主义升级到金融资本主义，把美元锚定在石油上。其次一条是在“首先”基础上有效缓和了中美关系。这是特朗普政府最想做的，也是其认为可以做成的事情。对此，欧，俄，日，韩，你们不妨仔细思考，特朗普政府为达成这个目标，它会出卖谁？

第二，中国虽然不与美国搞什么“中美G2模式”，但欧，俄，日，韩不要自己作死，将自己做成“菜”递给美国当筹码，成为美国缓和对华关系的台阶。比如，如果俄罗斯敢于损害中国的核心利益，则中国随时可以将其送上“被西方实质性消化”的快车道。你们要知道的是，如果美国彻底走向“全面战略收缩”，中国不是不可以考虑再放美国一马。比如，特朗普和“特朗普们”心心念念的“红巨星效应”。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Wednesday, March 26, 2025, Issue No. 1212

By sorting out the evolution of the international situation in the past decade, this article briefly discusses why it is impossible for Trump to replicate Nixon's successful visit to China.

[Media Coverage]

On March 26, the White House announced the outcomes of the technical-level talks between the U.S. delegation and the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. On the same day, Russia disclosed the main achievements of the Riyadh talks between Russia and the United States. The parties reached a consensus on ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea and suspending attacks on energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a media interview that day that Ukraine had not reached any consensus with the United States and Russia on territorial issues, and the U.S. side agreed to hold a new round of talks on ceasefire details in the near future.

【Discussion Summary】

● "Yalta System V2.0" is the product of Trump's policy of "forming alliances and making friends with distant countries while attacking neighboring ones" under the overall situation of "surface strategic expansion and actual strategic contraction" after his second term as President of the United States.

In the previous review, we mentioned the new concept of "Yalta System V2.0". In this review, we will combine the analysis of the evolution of the international situation over the past decade to discuss it in more depth with you.

The Yalta System was the international political pattern established by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union after World War II through a series of conferences. It is named after the Yalta Conference held in Yalta, the Soviet Union, in early 1945. This system has had a profound impact on the post-war world order. It is worth emphasizing that although the formation of the Yalta System originated in the late period of World War II, and the basic principles of the post-war world order were established by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union through conferences such as the Cairo Conference, the Tehran Conference, the Yalta Conference, and the Potsdam Conference, the core characteristic of the Yalta System is the bipolar pattern, that is, the "G2 model" centered on the "joint management of the earth" by the United States and the Soviet Union. Judging from subsequent history, the United Kingdom ultimately became a political sacrifice of the Yalta System.

"Yalta System V2.0" is the product of Trump's policy of "forming alliances and making friends with distant countries while attacking neighboring ones" under the overall situation of "surface strategic expansion and actual strategic contraction" after his second term as President of the United States. It is a kind of "U.S.-Russia dual-center" similar to the "Euro-Russian dual-center" of the "Greater Europe Plan", which the United States attempts to dig China's corner and must rely on. Russia, the most direct successor of the Soviet Union after its disintegration, forms such a pattern with the United States.

● The Past and Present of the "Greater Europe Plan"

Speaking of the "Greater Europe Plan", we might as well briefly review the evolution process of the international situation over the past decade and indirectly observe the "Yalta System V2.0" by reviewing the past and present of the "Greater Europe Plan".

On the night of May 25, 2012, a tragedy occurred in Hula Town, Homs Province, central Syria, in which about 90 people were killed, including 32 children, known as the "Hula Massacre". Marked by this incident, the West fully detonated the Syrian situation, and the "stopping point" of the international community on the Syrian issue (the Middle East issue) was "breached". At that time, Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation strongly suggested that the international community centered on China and Russia (at that time, China backed Russia with national credit, not allowing foreign armed forces to enter Syria) either rise up to fight back or immediately stop losses (withdraw).

The so-called "rising up to fight back" means that Russia should support the Syrian Assad government to export the flames of war from Syria to Israel (the "military steel nail" of U.S. Middle East policy) or Saudi Arabia (the "economic steel nail" of U.S. Middle East policy), and resolve the chaos in the Middle East with the determination of "using chaos to control chaos". The so-called "stopping losses" means that if Russia cannot "rise up to fight back", then temporarily abandon Syria, quickly withdraw, and concentrate on areas around Russia, such as Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, etc., and wait for opportunities. However, unfortunately, Russia ultimately misresponded. That is, it neither fought back nor stopped losses, and finally fell into the "time trap" carefully set by the West and could not extricate itself. After that, China decisively stopped losses in the Middle East, announced "no self-interest in the Middle East", and turned to fully manage the South China Sea externally and firmly practice the mass line internally.

Under the spillover effect of the "Middle East time trap", at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, the "Thai turmoil" broke out in Thailand, a region around China. It is not difficult to see that Thailand has always been one of the important entry points for anti-China forces to create chaos and instability in regions around China and deteriorate the security environment in regions around China. Due to China's extremely tough response in the South China Sea strategy, the West, which deeply felt China's firm determination and strong capabilities, had to shift its spearhead to Ukraine and then instigated a coup in Ukraine. On February 22, 2014, the Ukrainian crisis fully broke out. Yanukovych, the then pro-Russian President of Ukraine, fled to Russia. Subsequently, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) removed Yanukovych from the presidency. Therefore, although the spillover effect of the "Middle East time trap" first "bloomed" in the "Thai turmoil", the "result" was in Ukraine.

After the incident in Ukraine, we once again suggested that Russia seek ways to resolve the Ukrainian issue outside of Ukraine. However, Russia made mistakes repeatedly and always sought ways to resolve the Ukrainian issue in the direction of Ukraine. Eventually, the West completely trapped Russia's Middle East policy with the chaos in Ukraine.

After that, ISIS suddenly "parachuted" into the northern Mosul region of Iraq (heavily supported by Western mercenaries). In just a few weeks, hundreds of people (ISIS extremist militants) defeated tens of thousands of Iraqi government troops and fled all the way to Baghdad. Thereafter, ISIS quickly crossed the Iraq-Syria border and occupied most of Syria. It is worth mentioning that this was one of the main intentions of the West to instigate the "Ukrainian turmoil" and return to the Middle East, initially testing Russia's capabilities through ISIS.

2014 was an uneasy year, especially for China.

As early as the beginning of 2014, Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation repeatedly emphasized a view: Europe would cut interest rates no later than June of that year. As a result, Europe did not cut interest rates until May 2015. After entering June, the European Central Bank suddenly announced an interest rate cut. Also at the beginning of 2015, Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation pointed out that once the European Central Bank cuts interest rates in June, the Federal Reserve could start raising interest rates as early as August 2015 (finally delayed until the end of 2015 due to "July's hot weather, August's unfinished affairs").

The reason these two views were put forward together is that in the long-term observation and assessment of Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation, "the latest interest rate cut in June and the earliest interest rate hike in August" are not simply financial policies. Instead, they are plans jointly carried out by Europe and the United States, aiming at economically and especially financially weak links in emerging economies in the South, such as India, Brazil, and even Russia, to launch targeted attacks, intentionally trigger local financial or even economic crises in a targeted manner, attempt to substantially launch the "flooding the South" plan, and at the same time target the Chinese economy, using "toxic loans" for "financial sniping", so as to make the Chinese economy, especially the financial sector, which is the strongest among emerging economies, have no time to care about other things during the initial stage of "flooding the South"!

Based on multi-level observations of "toxic loans", we determined that the Western evil forces decided to do so at the end of 2014. Western finance released a huge amount of liquidity through "quantitative easing", and through certain financial means, such as locking in "toxic loans" buried in China's economic operation through overseas financing by some Chinese real estate developers, reached a peak in quantity, that is, a peak requiring concentrated repayment. Only after the European Central Bank "cuts interest rates no later than June" will there be the necessary space for the "Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as August", that is, to launch an attack and coordinate economic and especially financial policies between Europe and the United States.

The situation in 2014 was extremely critical. Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation once used "(Note: The Western evil forces) reveal their true intentions" to describe the dangerous situation at that time, repeatedly emphasizing that China should make the worst preparations. We firmly believe that we will win, but even if China wins, it will be a "hard-won victory".

In addition, Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation made an early assessment of this matter at least half a year in advance (at the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015): By the end of July 2015, if Russia did not substantially cooperate with the international community to effectively disrupt, or even interrupt, the Western "micro-adjusted" Middle East strategy that posed a great threat to the international community at that time, then China would definitely make relevant strategic adjustments. It should be added that this means that Russia does nothing. That is, even if the Iran nuclear deal is not reached, a compromise based on the "time factor" with the West has been formed.

Its essence is that Russia attempts to "divert troubles to the East". While China, through decisively and proactively adjusting relevant economic and financial policies, that is, announcing its gold reserves, announcing a reduction in the economic growth rate, especially exchange rate reforms, released a strong signal of comprehensively hitting the U.S. financial system. Interestingly, this time the focus of the impact was on the bond market and seriously disrupted the rhythm and pattern of U.S. bond issuance. As we all know, the bond market is the foundation of the "foundation" of the "Wall Street perpetual motion machine". The great chaos in the rhythm and pattern of U.S. bond issuance forced the West to adjust following China's policy adjustments and once again shifted all strategic pressure toward Russia, eventually leading to Russia reviewing its Syria policy (at the end of September), known as "September's Clothing Distribution". And China adjusted policies, impacted Western financial stability, and eventually led to Russia "watching from the sidelines". We describe this as "if there is any resemblance, it is purely coincidental". 2015 also became a "turning year" for Western financial hegemony. Western financial hegemony fell from the "absolute" altar to become "relative hegemony". It was also from 2015 that the "two golden horns" of the central banks of China and the United States officially began to "play their own tunes", marking the official start of comprehensive competition between China and the United States.

After Russia "militarily reviewed Syria", before the end of 2015, the world-shocking "two-plane incident" took place.

On October 31, 2015, a Russian Kogalymavia Airlines Airbus A321 (flight number 7K9268, registration number EI-ETJ) crashed in Egypt. ISIS (Islamic State) issued a statement claiming that its Sinai branch in Egypt shot down the plane in retaliation for Russia's airstrikes in Syria. Subsequently, Russian President Putin vowed to use tactical nuclear weapons to retaliate against the Sinai branch of ISIS, but it ultimately fizzled out, known as the "passenger plane incident" of the "two-plane incident".

On November 24, 2015, a Russian Su-24 fighter jet crashed on the Turkey-Syria border. Afterwards, the Turkish side falsely claimed that the Russian military aircraft first invaded Turkey's airspace and then shot it down, while Russia's response was only to argue with Turkey about "whether it invaded Turkey's airspace", and did not follow Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation's suggestion to "hit (the airport where the Turkish military aircraft that shot down the Russian fighter jet took off) first", known as the "military plane incident" of the "two-plane incident".

In the "two-plane incident", the West staged a very classic "strategic test (extreme strategic blackmail) accompanied by strategic attacks". It was precisely the "two-plane incident" that made NATO (the European Union), which was initially very wary of Russia's military power, change from being "terrified and shifting blame everywhere (to prevent NATO from directly conflicting with Russia and facing the passive situation of legal death due to the inability to effectively exercise the 'collective self-defense right')" to being "reckless and fearless". After that, NATO forces began to fully enter Syria until all the territory on the east bank of the Euphrates River in Syria was lost.

The West basically achieved the expected results against Russia, but achieved no results against China. As a result, the West blackmail, threatened, and provoked China with the "latest achievements" in the Syrian issue. This led to the "illegal arbitration case in the South China Sea" in 2016. Of course, as the "carrot" side, the United States began to use the "China-U.S. G2 model" to deceive China in order to win over China. At that time, both sides had their own judgments. China believed that if it did not stand up, it would be difficult to control the South China Sea in the future. The United States believed that after suppressing China in 2016, there would be no subsequent troubles. So both sides made up their minds and prepared for a fight (at that time, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Harry Harris, arrogantly declared, "We'll fight tonight").

On July 12, 2016, at 4:33 p.m., nearly a hundred warships and dozens of aircraft from the three major fleets of the Chinese navy gathered in a certain sea area from Hainan Island to the Xisha Islands. A large-scale live-fire confrontation exercise under a complex electromagnetic environment officially kicked off. This large-scale military exercise was prepared on the basis of "real combat" (at that time, partial mobilization was carried out. Many commanders and fighters wrote wills, and even the aftermath of collecting the remains of martyrs was prepared. In addition, the relevant technicians and experts of the Type 052D destroyer, which had just been launched and was undergoing sea trials, refused the central government's request for them to disembark in Zhanjiang. With the fearless spirit of "Who says we have no clothes?", they went to the front line with frontline officers and soldiers), that is, if Vietnam dares to "fish in troubled waters" for other countries in the direction of the South China Sea, China will use all means to "suppress" Vietnam (Japan can cause trouble for China on the Taiwan issue. If Japan dares to fly out, it will be shot down).

Facing such a tough China, the Americans ultimately chose to run away with their tails between their legs. After that, the West had to come up with the so-called "Greater Europe Plan" at this time.

If we call the "Mediterranean Plan" the "in-plan", then after the initial convergence of Europe and the United States, especially after their in-depth convergence, the "Greater Europe Plan" synthesized from the "Greater Middle East Plan" independently operated by the United States and the "Mediterranean Plan" independently operated by the European Union can be called the "out-of-plan". The opportunity for its launch was the sudden easing of Russia-Turkey relations after the Turkish military coup. At the beginning of the "two-plane incident", Russia-Turkey relations were tense. Only then did the then U.S. Secretary of State Kerry personally visit Moscow, trying every means to intimidate and induce Russia, in an attempt to effectively undermine the strategic mutual trust between China and Russia.

It is worth mentioning that the European Union played an important role in the "Greater Europe Plan". This is why the European Union, like the United Kingdom mentioned earlier, is most sensitive and vigilant about the "Greater Europe Plan V2.0". The United Kingdom and France both have painful memories of the Yalta System. Under the collusion of the United States and the Soviet Union, Europe lost absolute control over the Suez Canal. So, in a sense, the United Kingdom and France are probably the most sensitive and vigilant about the "Greater Europe Plan V2.0".

It is worth mentioning that its characteristic is virtual pulling China in, actually excluding China; virtual rejecting the United States, actually pulling the United States in.

● China not only does not accept the "China-U.S. G2 model", but also has no thinking similar to the Yalta System.

Looking at Trump's foreign policy today through the review of the past and present of the "Greater Europe Plan" in the previous section, there seem to be new problems. One of the so-called "new problems" is that today's China is much stronger than Russia, and even the former Soviet Union cannot be compared with today's China. Another so-called "new problem" is that China's principle has not only impressed the United States, but also made the United States pay a heavy price - such as the Sino-U.S. standoff in the South China Sea in 2016, the "Doklam incident" in 2017, the Sino-U.S. trade war from 2019, the "shouting match" at the China-U.S. meeting in Alaska in 2021 (after which the foreign ministers of China and Russia met in Guilin, followed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to four Middle Eastern countries, shouting "The Middle East belongs to the Middle Eastern people" until today), and Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022, etc. The third so-called "new problem" is that the United States, and even the entire Western world, can be said to be in the weakest period since World War II.

These three points are probably the main reasons why Trump remembers the Vietnam War and Nixon. In order to get out of the quagmire of the Vietnam War without collapsing the U.S. global strategy, Nixon had to visit China. After successfully easing Sino-U.S. relations, he borrowed China's "shoulder" to visit the Soviet Union, thus allowing the Yalta System to continue.

Both the Soviet Union and today's Russia pursue imperialism and great-power chauvinism, and they have no scruples about using the core interests of third parties as bargaining chips. Now Russia has left Ukraine aside and is talking with the United States about dividing up Ukraine. While China not only does not accept the "China-U.S. G2 model", but also has no thinking similar to the Yalta System. Today's China is not only very proactive in strategy, but also its economic strength has comprehensively surpassed that of the United States. China is not the former Soviet Union (first, China does not practice imperialism; second, China's comprehensive strength has comprehensively surpassed that of the United States). Therefore, Trump's attempt to emulate Nixon's visit to China back then, by first effectively easing U.S.-Russia relations and then effectively easing Sino-U.S. relations, is doomed to fail (first, China does not practice imperialism; second, China's comprehensive strength far exceeds that of Russia).

● The Trump administration wants to play the Yalta System V2.0, and the international community is willing to face it and make full use of it.

The Trump administration wants to play what it calls the Yalta System V2.0, and the international community is willing to face it and make full use of it. As mentioned earlier, the United Kingdom was a victim of the Yalta System. Although the Yalta System was formed in the late period of World War II through conferences such as the Cairo Conference, the Tehran Conference, the Yalta Conference, and the Potsdam Conference by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom became a victim of the Yalta System. It can be said that the United Kingdom has a painful memory of the Yalta System. France also has a similarly bad memory. It was precisely under the collusion of the United States and the Soviet Union that Europe lost absolute control over the Suez Canal. So, in a sense, the United Kingdom and France are probably the most sensitive and vigilant about the Yalta System V2.0.

It is worth mentioning that China also paid a huge price due to the Yalta System, that is, the independence of Mongolia. What Europe worries about is whether China will play the Yalta System V2.0 with the United States. China does not invite Trump to visit China in a hurry just because U.S.-Russia relations have eased, which makes Europe feel a little relieved. Once the U.S.-Russia relationship is finalized on the Ukrainian issue, Europe may have no choice but to lean towards China.

It is worth mentioning that in terms of whether Europe will ultimately decide to lean towards China, European capital interests probably play a decisive role. Although Europe and the United States are still in a state of convergence at present, and although U.S. capital interests still represent Western capital interests, as the internal strife in the United States becomes increasingly fierce, even U.S. capital interests have split. For example, those "Soroses like Biden" who have fled or are planning to flee to the European Union and intend to "start afresh". If they combine with the current European interests, can they decide some major affairs in Europe? For example, completely abandoning the "Greater Europe Plan" and leaning towards China to jointly resist the Yalta System V2.0.

The irony is that Russia has not been pulled by the United States yet, but we have pulled the European Union, and even Japan and South Korea (the European Union has been betrayed, Canada has been annexed. What are Japan and South Korea? They are not even NATO members. Trump not only increased tariffs, but also military spending) away from the United States. Of course, on this issue, we only focus on the process, not the result.

Finally, we need to remind the traditional U.S. allies, as well as Russia, which is currently wavering on the Yalta System V2.0 issue:

First, the reason why the United States has existed until today since the Vietnam War and why Nixon was able to get out of trouble unscathed is, first of all, that it has enlarged the "cake", that is, upgraded industrial capitalism to financial capitalism and anchored the dollar to oil. Secondly, on the basis of the "first point", it effectively eased relations with China. This is what the Trump administration wants to do most and what it thinks it can achieve. Regarding this, Europe, Russia, Japan, and South Korea, you might as well think carefully, for this goal, whom will the Trump administration sell out?

Second, although China does not engage in the "China-U.S. G2 model" with the United States, Europe, Russia, Japan, and South Korea should not seek their own doom and present themselves as "ingredients" to the United States as bargaining chips, becoming a stepping stone for the United States to ease relations with China. For example, if Russia dares to harm China's core interests, China can at any time send it onto the "fast track of being substantially digested by the West". You should know that if the United States completely moves towards "comprehensive strategic contraction", China is not excluded from considering giving the United States another chance. For example, the "red giant effect" that Trump and "Trumpians" have been longing for.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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