2025年3月27日，星期四，第1213期

菲律宾总统小马科斯是否已成为“第二个韩国总统尹锡悦”？

【媒体报道】

3月27日下午，国防部举行例行记者会，国防部新闻局局长、国防部新闻发言人吴谦大校答记者问。

记者：美防长近日将访问菲律宾，双方拟讨论应对中国在南海的行动和美对菲安全部队的支持。另据报道，菲律宾驻美国大使近日称，此访旨在向中方表明菲美关系十分稳固，菲确信美对菲安全承诺将保持不变。请问发言人有何评论？

吴谦：美菲军事合作，不得损害其他国家的安全利益，不得破坏地区的和平稳定。顺便说一句，纵观历史，美方在违背承诺、背弃盟友方面，保持着令人瞠目结舌的记录。

【讨论纪要】

●特朗普“闺蜜”戴恩斯访华再失败，再次凸显中国坚定原则立场毫不动摇

我们注意到，3月20日，美国蒙大拿州参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯抵达北京展开访问。据悉，戴恩斯此行将在北京同多位中方人士展开互动交流。

尽管戴恩斯的官职一般，仅为美国州参议员，但与特朗普之间的私人关系非同一般。类似中国历史人物中，章惇与苏轼的关系。如果此前我们说美前财长保尔森访华是“公事公办”，那么这次戴恩斯访华就是“私事私办”。连自己的“闺蜜”关系都动用上了，特朗普就访华一事之急迫心情溢于言表。

从戴恩斯访华后各方的反应不难看出，戴恩斯访华也基本以失败告终。3月24日，中国公布《实施〈中华人民共和国反外国制裁法〉的规定》，显然是对特朗普“求情不成”恼羞成怒再度挥舞关税大棒的直接反制。由此也能看出，中国仍继续坚守原则立场毫不动摇，比如，中国与美国以任何方式交易第三方的核心利益。对此，欧、俄、日、韩等各方，该怎么做就怎么做。

值得一提的是，据媒体披露的细节，戴恩斯访华期间提出，美方愿意将从2018年开始到现在的所有对华关税全部撤销，以换取中国配合美国金融维稳。在我们看来，这是典型的“左手制造问题，右手解决问题”。就好像中国对美方对华肆意挥舞关税大棒没有反制一样。想要“空手套白狼”，痴心妄想。

●赫格塞思参加硫磺岛战役80周年纪念仪式释放的战略信号很明白：美国准备像1945年2月那样，作战重心迅速东移，以全力对付中国

在继续展开回顾前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

美国国防部当地时间21日宣布，国防部长赫格塞思下周将启程前往夏威夷、关岛、菲律宾和日本，这是赫格塞思任期内首次正式访问“印太地区”。与传统意义上美国防长任期内首次亚太地区行程不同，赫格塞思的目的地没有选择韩国，而是罕见增加了菲律宾。

有消息称，赫格塞思此行最后一站是日本，他将参加硫磺岛战役80周年纪念仪式。熟悉二战历史的网友们应该记得，硫磺岛战役发生在1945年2月19日，持续到3月26日。此时纳粹德国已无条件投降，盟军的作战重心迅速东移，以全力对付日本法西斯。

现任美国防长赫格塞思，尽管其在伊拉克期间，一路晋升为陆军少校，且从伊拉克归来后，有短暂供职于曼哈顿政策研究所的经历，但其在担任美国防长之前却是美国福克斯新闻节目主持人，可以说，赫格塞思几乎没有任何背景。所以，在其将本次出访最后一站是设在日本且将参加硫磺岛战役80周年纪念仪式这件事来观察，这一姿态显然不是赫格塞思本人所为，他只是一个执行者。其传递出的战略信号也很明白：美国有能力让俄罗斯，或欧盟“无条件投降”（或者将其击败，或者将其彻底抛弃），进而可以像1945年2月那样，作战重心迅速东移，以全力对付中国。此外，也在暗示方方面面，如，欧、俄、日、韩等各方，美国摆出了要和中国死磕的架势，你们大可趁此机会对中国大肆要价。拉高这些国家与中国打交道的门槛儿。

需要说明的是，中美之间你来我往不断过招，但还没有到“掀桌子”的程度。如果基于“远交近攻”的层面去观察，中美大致处于“远交”状态下，且在这一基础上，不断“近攻”对方的传统意义上的影响范围，比如，俄罗斯对中国，欧盟、日本、韩国等对美国。尽管双方采取的博弈方式差不多，但却有本质区别。美国是典型的帝国主义心态，奉行“丛林法则”和“死道友不死贫道”的零和博弈理念。而中国推行的是共同发展与求同存异。所以，中国并不惧怕美国通过这种方式拉高各方与中国打交道的门槛儿，各国大可根据各自的国情在中美之间做出自己的选择。而对特朗普而言，这样玩本质不过是拖时间，对其缓和日益严重的美国内部恶斗非常不利。什么问题都解决不了，反而将自己黔驴技穷，色厉内荏的劣势展现在方方面面，包括特朗普和“特朗普们”的内部敌人面前。

●杜特尔特从香港返回菲律宾的那一刻，小马克斯的命运就与尹锡悦同病相怜

实际上，以在西太方向生战生乱的方式讹诈中国这张牌美国始终扣在手心。这张牌除了此前我们讨论过的韩国总统尹锡悦弹劾案的后续发展，还包括菲律宾前总统杜特尔特被捕一事的后续发展。显然，特朗普有意尽可能削弱目前中国的战略优势，也是美方就特朗普访华问题再次遭拒后的真实反应。

值得一提的是，目前阶段，尹锡悦这张牌对特朗普政府来说不再那么好打了，一方面由于朝鲜的态度鲜明且强硬，朝鲜背后站着的就是中国自不必说，何况还有俄罗斯被引入当前中美围绕朝鲜半岛问题的较量之中。俄方与朝鲜有军事盟友关系，再加上朝鲜出兵俄罗斯库尔斯克，俄乌战争仍在继续，中国又是俄罗斯最大外在战略策应来源，于是便在朝鲜半岛问题上有所表示，毕竟特朗普政府打尹锡悦这张牌对朝鲜是有威胁的，于情于理，俄方都应该践行军事同盟的承诺。

当然，俄罗斯被引入当前中美围绕朝鲜半岛问题的较量之中也有自己的考量，至少有利于其在乌克兰问题上、中东问题上对特朗普政府提高要价。而对特朗普政府来说，投鼠忌器，碍于目前正在与俄罗斯就乌克兰问题谈得热火朝天，不得不在朝鲜半岛问题上有所隐忍。否则，一旦朝鲜半岛闹出了什么不愉快的事情，很可能导致特朗普政府为缓和美俄关系做出的一系列努力就此前功尽弃。

朝鲜本身就有核武器，特朗普承认朝鲜是有核国家，而日韩不是。再加上朝鲜背后站着中国和俄罗斯两个核大国、核强国。所以，对特朗普来说，这步棋不好下，只能用于讹诈。而这枚棋子是拜登政府基于私利造就的，后来由于美国资本内部分裂，美军最终听从了“特朗普们”，于是这枚棋子便落在了特朗普手中。

既然尹锡悦这张牌不好打，特朗普政府就又找了一张牌，那就是在杜特尔特被捕一事的后续发展上。可以说，杜特尔特从香港返回菲律宾的那一刻，小马克斯的命运就与尹锡悦同病相怜了。一方面，小马克斯随时可能被特朗普政府出卖；另一方面，小马克斯如果想要保住总统的位置，不被政治清算，就需要对美国人言听计从，成为美国人手上的提线木偶。其中自然也包括在南海问题上紧密配合特朗普政府，让其开枪就开枪，让其放炮就放炮。

值得一提的是，在小马克斯随时可能被特朗普政府出卖的问题上，特朗普政府既可以怂恿、操纵其在南海问题上挑衅中国，也可以摇身一变，变为“调节者”。在我们的观察与评估中，只要中国坚持原则，强硬到底，最终让步的只能是特朗普政府。特朗普政府几乎无路可走，4月20日之前他必须访华。他在华尔街的老板们的耐心正在随时间的流逝变得越来越不耐烦。

中美之间完全可以从东京118度线，也就是菲律宾领土的法理界定开始谈起。需要强调的是，我们也要预防美国借此机会搞串联，将中国贴上“新霸”的标签。不过，话说回来，如果美国真的这样做了，也等同于同时昭示自己的霸权不复存在，由此产生的后果恐怕是美国很难接受的。所以，不到万不得已，恐怕美国不会这样做。

卢比奥，贺格赛斯之流，随时可以被换掉。这也完全有可能成为特朗普政府打出的一张牌。以卢比奥为例，此前其在“三独问题”上胡说八道，被中国制裁至今。所以，卢比奥改弦更张或特朗普政府换掉此人，也算是一定程度上释放访华诚意。作为“敲门砖”，毕竟换掉一个人等于换了一条路。

●美国目前仍能存续的基础建立在中美关系的基本稳定上，任何形式推动，甚至导致中美关系彻底破裂的行为都无异于自杀

为了更好展开讨论，我们来看一则新闻报道。

3月24日，俄罗斯和美国代表团的新一轮谈判将于周一在沙特首都利雅得举行，旨在推动俄乌之间实现更广泛的停火。据悉，谈判在利雅得的一家酒店举行，代表俄罗斯出席会议的是俄联邦委员会国际委员会主席格里戈里·卡拉辛和俄联邦安全局局长顾问谢尔盖·别谢达。而美国方面由白宫国家安全委员会高级主任安德鲁·皮克和国务院高级官员迈克尔·安东领导。

就在美俄3月24日于沙特首都利雅得举行新一轮谈判前2天，也就是，3月21日，国务委员、公安部部长王小洪在京会见俄罗斯联邦安全局局长博尔特尼科夫。

综合上述两则新闻报道不难看出，特朗普欲借俄罗斯的“肩膀”打通访华之路的企图基本被封死。由于中国的态度强硬，坚持原则立场，俄罗斯对特朗普政府的要价只能随时间的流逝而水涨船高。

从相关细节来看，俄罗斯联邦安全局局长博尔特尼科夫先行访华，然后才有的他的副手，俄联邦安全局局长顾问谢尔盖·别谢达与俄联邦委员会国际委员会主席格里戈里·卡拉辛在3月24日于利雅得与美方会晤。这让人有一种俄方在美方摊牌前，先与中国交底的感觉。这在特朗普眼中，简直是奇耻大辱。然而，谈判还是如期在利雅得举行了，由此可见，俄方目前阶段在同美方谈判的过程中是何等强势。

奉劝特朗普政府，某种意义上说，美国目前仍能存续的基础建立在中美关系的基本稳定上，任何形式推动，甚至导致中美关系彻底破裂的行为都无异于自杀。美方更不要动辄以“死给你看”作为讹诈的筹码，美国敢死，中国就敢埋。引用中国驻美大使馆甩出的那记重锤来形容就是——要打关税战、贸易战，还是其他什么战，我们都奉陪到底！别的不说，看看美国内部愈演愈烈的内斗不难明白，对于这样病入膏肓的美国中国有什么好惧怕的？如果美国这套讹诈手段吓不住中国的话，其它方方面面，包括欧盟、俄罗斯、日本、韩国等恐怕也很难吓住，反而他们都会认为，有中国在前面顶着，绝对是从美国手中淘换自己急需利益的绝佳时刻。届时，他们去看中国如何表现就好了。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Thursday, March 27, 2025, Issue No. 1213

Is Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Becoming the "Second Yoon Suk-yeol, the President of South Korea"?

[Media Coverage]

On the afternoon of March 27, the Ministry of National Defense held a regular press conference. Colonel Wu Qian, Director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, answered reporters' questions.

Reporter: The US Secretary of Defense will visit the Philippines recently. The two sides plan to discuss responses to China's actions in the South China Sea and US support for the Philippine security forces. Additionally, according to reports, the Philippine Ambassador to the United States recently stated that this visit aims to show China that the Philippines-US relationship is very solid and the Philippines is confident that the US security commitment to the Philippines will remain unchanged. What is your comment, spokesperson?

Wu Qian: US-Philippine military cooperation must not harm the security interests of other countries, nor disrupt regional peace and stability. Incidentally, looking back at history, the United States has a staggering record of breaking promises and abandoning allies.

【Discussion Summary】

● Trump's "Close Friend" Diane's Failed Visit to China Again Highlights China's Firm and Unwavering Stance

We note that on March 20, US Senator Steve Daines from Montana arrived in Beijing for a visit. It is reported that during this trip, Daines will interact and communicate with several Chinese parties in Beijing.

Although Daines holds a relatively ordinary official position, being only a state senator in the United States, his personal relationship with Trump is extraordinary, similar to the relationship between Zhang Dun and Su Shi in Chinese history. If we previously said that the visit to China by former US Treasury Secretary Paulson was "conducting business for public affairs," then Daines' visit to China this time is "handling private affairs for private interests." Trump has even resorted to leveraging his "close friend" relationship, revealing his eagerness for a visit to China.

It is not difficult to see from the reactions of all parties after Daines' visit to China that the visit essentially ended in failure. On March 24, China announced the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Law of the People's Republic of China on Counteracting Unjustified Extraterritorial Application of Foreign Legislation and Other Measures," which is clearly a direct countermeasure against Trump's frustration from "pleading in vain" and once again brandishing the tariff stick. This also shows that China continues to firmly adhere to its principled stance, such as not engaging in any form of transaction involving the core interests of third parties with the United States. In this regard, Europe, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and other parties should do as they see fit.

It is worth mentioning that, according to details disclosed by the media, during Daines' visit to China, he proposed that the US is willing to completely revoke all tariffs on China since 2018 in exchange for China's cooperation in US financial stabilization. In our view, this is a typical case of "creating problems with one hand and solving them with the other." It is as if China has not counteracted the US' arbitrary brandishing of the tariff stick. Wanting to "gain something for nothing" is wishful thinking.

● The strategic signal conveyed by Hagee's participation in the 80th anniversary commemoration ceremony of the Battle of Iwo Jima is crystal clear: The United States is ready to rapidly shift its combat focus to the East, just as it did in February 1945, to fully confront China.

Before continuing the review, let's take a look at another news report.

The US Department of Defense announced on the 21st local time that Secretary of Defense Hagee will set off next week for Hawaii, Guam, the Philippines, and Japan. This is Hagee's first official visit to the "Indo-Pacific region" during his tenure. Different from the traditional first visit to the Asia-Pacific region by a US Secretary of Defense, Hagee's itinerary does not include South Korea, but unusually adds the Philippines.

It is reported that the last stop of Hagee's trip will be Japan, where he will attend the 80th anniversary commemoration ceremony of the Battle of Iwo Jima. Netizens familiar with World War II history should remember that the Battle of Iwo Jima took place from February 19 to March 26, 1945. At this time, Nazi Germany had already surrendered unconditionally, and the Allied forces rapidly shifted their combat focus to the East to fully confront Japanese fascism.

The current US Secretary of Defense, Hagee, although he was promoted to Major in the Army during his time in Iraq and had a brief stint at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research after returning from Iraq, was a host on Fox News before serving as the US Secretary of Defense. It can be said that Hagee has almost no background. Therefore, judging from the fact that the last stop of his visit is set in Japan and that he will attend the 80th anniversary commemoration ceremony of the Battle of Iwo Jima, this gesture is clearly not something Hagee himself would do; he is merely an executor. The strategic signal it conveys is also clear: The United States has the ability to make Russia or the European Union "surrender unconditionally" (either defeat them or completely abandon them) and then rapidly shift its combat focus to the East, just as it did in February 1945, to fully confront China. Additionally, it is also hinting to all parties, such as Europe, Russia, Japan, South Korea, etc., that the United States is ready to go to war with China, and they can take this opportunity to make excessive demands on China, raising the threshold for these countries in dealing with China.

It should be noted that although there has been a continuous exchange of blows between China and the United States, it has not reached the point of "turning over the table." If observed from the perspective of "befriend the distant and attack the near," China and the United States are roughly in a state of "befriend the distant," and on this basis, they continue to "attack" each other's traditional spheres of influence, such as Russia towards China, and the European Union, Japan, South Korea, etc., towards the United States. Although the methods of both sides are similar, there are essential differences. The United States has a typical imperialist mentality, following the "law of the jungle" and the zero-sum game concept of "better my enemy's enemy than my enemy." In contrast, China promotes common development and seeking common ground while reserving differences. Therefore, China is not afraid of the United States raising the threshold for other countries to deal with China in this way. Each country can make its own choice between China and the United States based on its national conditions. As for Trump, playing such games is essentially just dragging time, which is very unfavorable for him to ease the increasingly severe internal strife in the United States. It solves nothing and instead exposes his disadvantages of being at the end of his wits and showing weakness in front of everyone, including Trump's and "Trump's" internal enemies.

● The moment Duterte returned to the Philippines from Hong Kong, the fate of Marcos Jr. became as pitiful as that of Yoon Suk-yeol.

In fact, the United States has always held the card of blackmailing China by creating chaos and war in the West Pacific direction. This card includes not only the subsequent development of the impeachment case of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, which we have discussed before, but also the subsequent development of the arrest of former Philippine President Duterte. Obviously, Trump intends to weaken China's current strategic advantage as much as possible, which is also the real reaction of the US side after Trump's visit to China was rejected again.

It is worth mentioning that at the current stage, the card of Yoon Suk-yeol is no longer so easy for the Trump administration to play. On the one hand, due to North Korea's clear and tough attitude, and China stands behind North Korea, needless to say. Moreover, Russia has been involved in the current contest between China and the United States over the Korean Peninsula issue. Russia has a military alliance with North Korea, and with North Korea sending troops to Russia's Kursk and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, China is the biggest external strategic support for Russia. Therefore, it has expressed its position on the Korean Peninsula issue. After all, the Trump administration's playing of the Yoon Suk-yeol card is a threat to North Korea. For reasons of sentiment and reason, Russia should fulfill the promise of military alliance.

Of course, Russia's involvement in the current contest between China and the United States over the Korean Peninsula issue also has its own considerations. At least it is beneficial for it to raise its demands on the Trump administration on issues such as Ukraine and the Middle East. For the Trump administration, it has to be restrained on the Korean Peninsula issue because it is currently in heated talks with Russia on the Ukraine issue. Otherwise, once something unpleasant happens on the Korean Peninsula, it may lead to the Trump administration's efforts to ease US-Russia relations being in vain.

North Korea itself has nuclear weapons, and Trump has recognized North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, while Japan and South Korea are not. Moreover, behind North Korea stand two nuclear powers and strong nuclear countries, China and Russia. Therefore, for Trump, this move is difficult to make and can only be used for blackmail. This chess piece was created by the Biden administration based on private interests. Later, due to the internal division of US capital, the US military finally listened to the "Trump camp," and this chess piece fell into Trump's hands.

Since the card of Yoon Suk-yeol is not easy to play, the Trump administration has found another card, which is the subsequent development of the Duterte arrest case. It can be said that the moment Duterte returned to the Philippines from Hong Kong, the fate of Marcos Jr. became as pitiful as that of Yoon Suk-yeol. On the one hand, Marcos Jr. may be sold out by the Trump administration at any time; on the other hand, if Marcos Jr. wants to keep his presidential position and avoid political liquidation, he needs to obey the Americans' words and become a puppet in their hands. This naturally includes closely cooperating with the Trump administration on the South China Sea issue, letting them fire when they say fire and let them shell when they say shell.

It is worth mentioning that on the issue of Marcos Jr. being potentially sold out by the Trump administration at any time, the Trump administration can either instigate and manipulate him to provoke China on the South China Sea issue or turn around and become a "mediator." In our observation and assessment, as long as China adheres to principles and is tough to the end, the only ones who can make concessions in the end are the Trump administration. The Trump administration has almost no way out and must visit China before April 20. The patience of his bosses on Wall Street is becoming increasingly impatient as time goes by.

China and the United States can start discussions from the 118th meridian east of Tokyo, which is the legal definition of the territory of the Philippines. It should be emphasized that we also need to prevent the United States from taking this opportunity to engage in collusion and label China as a "new hegemon." However, having said that, if the United States really does this, it is tantamount to simultaneously declaring its own hegemony no longer exists, and the consequences that may arise are probably difficult for the United States to accept. Therefore, unless it is absolutely necessary, the United States is unlikely to do so.

Rubio, Hagee, and others can be replaced at any time. This could also become a card played by the Trump administration. Taking Rubio as an example, he previously talked nonsense on the "three independence issues" and has been sanctioned by China to this day. Therefore, if Rubio changes his tune or the Trump administration replaces him, it can also be regarded as a certain degree of sincerity in visiting China. As a "foot in the door," after all, replacing one person means taking a different path.

● The basis for the current survival of the United States is built on the basic stability of Sino-US relations, and any form of promotion or even causing a complete breakdown of Sino-US relations is tantamount to suicide.

To better discuss this issue, let's take a look at a news report.

On March 24, a new round of negotiations between the Russian and US delegations will be held on Monday in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, aimed at promoting a broader ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. It is reported that the negotiations will be held at a hotel in Riyadh. Representing Russia at the meeting were Gregory Karasin, Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, and Sergey Beseda, Advisor to the Director of the Federal Security Service of Russia. The US side was led by Andrew Peek, Senior Director of the National Security Council of the White House, and Michael Anton, a senior official of the Department of State.

Just two days before the new round of negotiations between the United States and Russia in Riyadh on March 24, that is, on March 21, Wang Xiaohong, State Councilor and Minister of Public Security, met with Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Federal Security Service of Russia, in Beijing.

It is not difficult to see from the above two news reports that Trump's attempt to use Russia's "shoulder" to open the way for his visit to China has been basically blocked. Due to China's tough stance and adherence to principled positions, Russia's demands on the Trump administration can only increase over time.

From the relevant details, Russian Federal Security Service Director Alexander Bortnikov visited China first, followed by his deputy, Sergey Beseda, Advisor to the Director of the Federal Security Service of Russia, and Gregory Karasin, Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, who met with the US side in Riyadh on March 24. This gives the impression that the Russians briefed the Chinese before playing their cards with the Americans. In Trump's eyes, this is simply a disgrace. However, the negotiations were still held as scheduled in Riyadh, which shows how strong Russia is in the negotiation process with the United States at this stage.

We advise the Trump administration that, in a sense, the basis for the current survival of the United States is built on the basic stability of Sino-US relations, and any form of promotion or even causing a complete breakdown of Sino-US relations is tantamount to suicide. The US side should not resort to "playing chicken" as a bargaining chip for blackmail. If the United States dares to die, China dares to bury. To quote a heavy blow thrown by the Chinese Embassy in the United States, whether it is a tariff war, trade war, or any other war, we will accompany you to the end! Not to mention anything else, just look at the increasingly fierce internal strife within the United States to understand that what is there for China to fear from such a terminally ill United States? If the United States' blackmail tactics do not scare China, other parties, including the European Union, Russia, Japan, South Korea, etc., are probably also difficult to scare, and instead, they will all think that with China in front, it is the perfect opportunity to bargain for their urgently needed interests from the United States. At that time, they can just watch how China performs.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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