2025年3月28日，星期五，第1214期

俄罗斯为什么敢于对特朗普政府提出“乌克兰亲俄政权上台”之新利益诉求？

【媒体报道】

3月28日，俄罗斯总统普京在与“阿尔汉格尔斯克”号核动力巡洋舰官兵交流时说表示，俄军掌握着整个战线战略主动权，乌克兰现有行政机构是不合法的。

【讨论纪要】

●中、美、俄，或者，中国，美国和俄罗斯的前身苏联，围绕东北亚地区的博弈早已开始

在展开今天的回顾之前，首先就特朗普政府打“尹锡悦牌”的主要意图与大家补充一些内容。

特朗普不是一个简单的人。1964年，18岁的特朗普毕业于纽约军事学院。与之相比，其前任美国总统拜登在23岁的时候，毕业于特拉华大学，学习的是历史和政治专业，此后专攻法学。

正是由于这段特殊的人生经历，使得特朗普对一些军事常识，对于基本的战略态势有所认知。或者更直白一点说，朝鲜半岛今天的军事态势到底是对美国有利还是不利，主动权在不在美韩军事同盟手中，特朗普心知肚明。

在我们那看来，对于这样一个“路子野”，本身就是有核国家（特朗普是第一个公开承认朝鲜是有核国家的美国总统，而且承认了两次，最新一次是2025年3月13日），且背后有中、俄两个核大国、核强国站台的朝鲜，特朗普很清楚，尹锡悦“这张牌”不好打（主要在军事层面进行战略冒险不好打，政治层面反而相对容易操作），只能用于讹诈（4月到7月美国有大量国债到期，急于印钱，也就急于访华。此外，特朗普上任之前夸下海口，100天内实现访华）。

值得一提的是，这枚“棋子”是拜登政府基于一己私利造就的，后由于美国资本利益内部分裂，美军（韩军总体上是听美军的）最终听从了“特朗普们”，于是这张牌便落在了特朗普手中。

需要补充的是，中、美、俄，或者，中国，美国和俄罗斯的前身苏联，围绕东北亚地区的博弈早已开始。所以我们说，俄罗斯这次是被引入当前中、美围绕朝鲜半岛问题的较量之中。而作为影响东北亚的一股政治力量，俄罗斯早已存在。

1924年11月26日蒙古人民共和国成立，宣布从中国独立，当时的北洋政府并未承认。1945年8月14日，国民政府与前苏联签订《中苏友好同盟条约》，同意外蒙古根据公投结果独立。次年，对独立予以承认。可以说，蒋介石政府在苏联和美国的共同施压下签订的这份中苏条约是非常屈辱的。中国是第二次世界大战的战胜国，而且付出了巨大代价，然而却成为二战结束后，旨在“美苏共管地球”之雅尔塔体系的政治牺牲品。

1949年12月21日是斯大林70岁生日。当时的各国共产党领导人都去祝寿。给斯大林祝寿，是毛主席访苏的目的之一。目的之二则是借此机会，与苏联建立新的中苏条约。对此，斯大林一口拒绝，且话封的非常死。当然，由于当时中国人口众多，幅员辽阔，地缘政治位置优势显著，处于美苏世界争霸的关键地区，所以斯大林也不敢太过于轻视中国。

后来，毛主席相当长一段时间没有在苏联主办的一系列公开活动中露面。于是，西方媒体开始炒作中苏谈崩，斯大林将毛主席软禁起来的传闻。当时，制造这个谣言就是美国。极尽挑拨中苏关系之能事并诋毁苏联的权威和声誉，试图瓦解社会主义国家阵营。

对此，斯大林很着急，但毛主席却很淡然，并放风称，中苏正在密谈新的中苏条约，且不谈出名格堂绝不回国。于是，苏联不得不对中国做出了一些让步。当然，所谓“让步”更多是一些细节上的调整，旧有的中苏条约框架没动。

有趣的是，过了几天，斯大林突然对中国大幅让步。原因就在前几天，美国国务卿艾奇逊公开承认“台湾是中国不可分割的一部分”，并宣布“朝鲜不在美国东亚防御圈内”，进而向方方面面释放出美国有意改善与新中国关系的强烈信号。

美国人似乎现在砸吧出滋味了，此前，尽管新中国通过一篇《别了，司徒雷登》废除中美之前的不平等条约，但美国似乎也没有理由把新中国全面推到苏联身边？这一点非常类似特朗普今天反复强调的“为什么把俄罗斯推到中国身边”非常相似。特朗普的初衷仍是从俄罗斯的角度挑拨中俄关系。

美国人的心思斯大林自然看在眼里，为了不将新中国被美国人从自己的身边拉走，不得已，斯大林只能对新买中国做出较大幅度让步。1950年2月14日，两国代表最终在莫斯科签订《中苏友好同盟互助条约》及有关协定，成为新中国外交取得的重大成果。为区分1945年与国民党签订的旧条约，周总理特地在新条约名称上增加了“互助”二字，即《中苏友好同盟互助条约》。但是，尽管如此，在外蒙古独立的事情上，苏联仍不吐口，且苏联要求新中国在东北和新疆不得引入外国投资。

作为这次中、美、苏博弈的后续，不想就此吃闷亏的斯大林在朝鲜给新中国挖了一大大的坑，并妄图让新中国心甘情愿的将东北和新疆交给苏联“保护”。

今天我们强大了，自然不会再吃当年雅尔塔体系约束下的那种亏。只要中国做好自己，对付俄罗斯的牌我们也早已在手中扣着，正因此，俄罗斯宁可在乌克兰和欧美打了3年多，也不敢在“南亚破局”问题上轻举妄动。

● 作为美国最大盟友，也是传统盟友之一的欧盟，显然注意到了特朗普政府再次一头撞在“中国原则”的钢板上且正在被俄罗斯狠狠地敲竹杠

在继续展开讨论前，我们来看一则新闻报道。

3月25日，美国白宫公布美方代表团23日至25日在沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得分别与乌克兰和俄罗斯代表团进行技术层面会谈的成果。同日，俄罗斯也公布了俄美代表团在利雅得举行会谈达成的主要成果。

白宫发布的两份文件显示，美国与俄乌均同意在黑海确保航行安全、消除使用武力的可能、阻止将商船用于军事目的。美国与俄乌均同意制定措施落实美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京和乌克兰总统泽连斯基此前达成的禁止攻击俄乌两国能源设施的协议。

根据俄罗斯克里姆林宫网站25日公布的通报，俄美会谈主要成果包括五项：俄美双方同意确保落实黑海港口农产品外运协议、美国推动恢复俄罗斯农产品和化肥向世界市场出口准入、俄美为停止打击俄罗斯和乌克兰能源设施制定措施、俄美欢迎第三方就落实能源和海事协议开展斡旋、俄美将继续致力于实现持久和平。

虽然双方公布的会晤结果中涉及一些解除对俄罗斯经济、金融制裁的内容，但从俄罗斯总统普京在与“阿尔汉格尔斯克”号核动力巡洋舰官兵交流时说表示，俄军掌握着整个战线战略主动权，乌克兰现有行政机构是不合法的最新涉乌言论来看，俄方显然对这样一些“零七碎八”的谈判结果并不满意。

在我们看来，俄方之所以敢于对特朗普政府提出“乌克兰亲俄政权上台”之新利益诉求，就是看准了美国两波人马（美前财长保尔森和美加州议员戴恩斯）访华相继失败后，中美关系不但没有改善，而且趋于更加紧张——中国对特朗普政府的反击非常犀利（始于《反外国制裁法》的全面生效）。“中美冲突”不仅已升级为“全面贸易战”，而且中国对美国发动金融攻击。在这种情况下，中美之间甚至热战都是有可能的。几乎将特朗普政府怼在墙角里。值得一提的是，这次被中国反制裁和遭到中国金融打击的很多美国公司的背后，都是特朗普在华尔街的老板们。

不难看出，俄方的最新利益诉求是乌克兰必须成立一个亲俄政权。俄方的要求等同于将目前乌克兰局势彻底反转，这也意味着俄美在利雅得刚刚谈完的内容已经成为历史。看样子，特朗普想要借俄罗斯“肩膀”为访华打开局面，效仿尼克松借中国“肩膀”为访苏打开局面，没那么容易。更为讽刺的是，3月27日访问北京的法国外长巴罗着重强调了“比以往任何时候都更需要加强法中关系”。

法国作为欧盟的两大“政治旗手”之一，其外长如此表态，显然让特朗普政府的处境非常尴尬。看样子，作为美国的最大盟友，也是传统盟友之一的欧盟，明显注意到了特朗普政府再次一头撞在“中国原则”的钢板上且正在被俄罗斯狠狠地敲竹杠。

●为防止重压之下的日、韩快速靠向中国，特朗普政府便故技重施，在苏岩礁和钓鱼岛两处，利用三国主权争端挑拨离间，制造对立

实际上，特朗普政府不仅对欧盟如此刻薄，对于日、韩更是十分提防。

就在3月18日，中韩于苏岩礁发生对峙的几乎同时，我们注意到，日本的几艘渔船闯入我钓鱼岛被中方驱离的相关新闻报道。3月21日至24日，日“理惠丸”“第八琴海丸”“第八泰生丸”“善幸丸2”号渔船非法进入我钓鱼岛领海，中国海警舰艇依法对其采取必要管控措施并警告驱离。

话说，2012年中日两国签署的货币互换协议是一件具有重大意义的事件。它涉及到两国的经济、政治和区域合作等多个方面。然而，这个协议的背后却隐藏着一些不为人知的秘密，比如，导致两位日本重要人物的神秘死亡。

这两位人物就是日本金融大臣松下忠洋和日本驻华大使西宫伸一。他们都是中日货币互换协议的主要推动者，他们为了促进中日之间的经济合作和政治关系的改善，积极参与了协议的谈判和签署。然而，就在协议签署后不久，他们相继在不同的地点遭遇了不幸的命运——2012年9月10日，松下忠洋在自己的家中上吊自杀。仅仅6天后，西宫伸一在自己家附近突然倒地昏迷，送往医院后不治身亡。

不难看出，美国对中、日、韩三国关系走近从来都持有高度警觉，一旦发现对美国不利的苗头就会出手干涉，其中，挑动三国国家关系和社会情绪对立是主要手段之一。比如，某当年的“著名保钓人士”，后来却被证明是一个臭名昭著的“港独”人员。

●《反外国制裁法》的主要意图之一就是大幅拉升美国和其他方方面面，包括美国的传统盟友们打交道的门槛儿

特朗普对日韩挥舞关税大棒，妄图打造“关税反华联盟”，并以此作为讹诈手段逼迫国际社会配合特朗普访华。为防止重压之下的日、韩快速靠向中国，特朗普政府便故技重施，在苏岩礁和钓鱼岛两处，利用三国主权争端挑拨离间，制造对立。也就是说，首先是基于在中、日、韩社会之中制造负面氛围，对三国之间正常缓和关系制造障碍。

面对中国出台的《反外国制裁法》，美国人这次恐怕又是搬起石头砸了自己的脚。《反外国制裁法》第七条规定，国务院有关部门的反制裁决定是最终决定，不能提出行政复议或上诉。

在我们看来，“最终决定性”和“不可诉性”与美国的对外制裁措施效果类似，保证了反制措施的力度和效果对等‌。通俗一点说就是，谁跟着美国对付中国，中国就对等制裁谁。换句话说，天上出了两个太阳，不是中国要你们选边站，是美国比你们选边站，当然，如何选择是你们的自由，但选错了是要付出惨重代价的。不难看出，中国的犀利反击在客观上必然会大幅拉升美国和其他方方面面，包括美国的传统盟友们打交道的门槛儿。

美国与传统盟友之间的关系不断恶化，对美国国家利益而言绝对是大损，但对于特朗普这一小撮人来说，未必不能这样玩，这就叫“富贵险中求”。当然，这里的富贵首先是特朗普自己的富贵，其次是其所在小集团的富贵。所以，某种意义上说，刻意制造世界经济大萧条未必不是特朗普心中正在盘算的。一旦如此，美国也就找到了可以公开、大规模开启印钞机的理由，而特朗普也可以顺势加快谋求独裁，成为名副其实的“希特勒二世”。

问题在于，能否相对顺利开启“红巨星效应”，首要前提是得到中国的默许。否则，问题就被简化为，是特朗普和“特朗普们”跑得快还是金融市场跑得快了。特朗普小集团当然要进行最后一搏，这也意味着爆发美国版“土木堡之变”的可能性在不断增加。

●乌克兰和中东距离真正迎来和平的那一天也许还要经过一段相对较长的阶段

中美关系没有好转反而不断恶化，必然导致特朗普政府的中东政策的处境更加艰难。在继续展开讨论之前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

3月26日，利雅得会谈讨论了由沙特作为监督俄罗斯停止袭击乌克兰能源基础设施的国家。

在我们看来，让沙特充当监督俄罗斯停止袭击乌克兰能源基础设施的国家，这个主意大概率是美国出的，当然，其中或也得到了俄罗斯的某种默许。而欧盟的态度并不明朗。

法国外长访华期间一定会谈到乌克兰问题。法国的心思显然是想把中国拉进来，对沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家发挥影响力。也就是说，欧盟拉中国入局，切入点在乌克兰问题上，但却醉翁之意不在酒，其目下更关心的却在中东问题上，比如，更深入的介入叙利亚局势的后续发展。但问题在于，叙利亚临时政府在“东突”问题上目前没有给国际社会一个满意的态度。所以，乌克兰和中东距离真正迎来和平的那一天也许还要经过一段相对较长的阶段。

对此，我们提醒俄罗斯决策层务必小心行事，不要将美欧关系绝对对立化。在我们看来，欧美之间到目前为止仍保留了伺机推动加速实质性消化俄罗斯进程之选项。对此，国际社会大可不必着急，围绕乌克兰问题和中东问题，各揣私心且都显得非常着急的美、欧、俄等方方面面恐怕最终绕来绕去，还是只能来找中国。

最后需要补充的是，美国和俄罗斯就乌克兰问题上如此着急的要继续谈下去，其中主要原因之一就是双方都急需停火，尤其是美国。别的不说，最近一段时间表现神勇恐的胡塞武装怕已经让方方面面看清，特朗普政府此前鼓吹的，美军有能力控制世界范围内主要运河、海峡、航线和港口，是在吹牛。一个小小的胡塞武装都无法搞定，还谈什么世界范围？

在我们的观察与评估中，如果美国集中2艘航母仍不能搞定胡塞武装，这一现实或会成为美国军事霸权迅速垮塌的起点。所以，欧、日、韩等恐怕在靠向中国的过程中，也都密切关注美国，美军在中东的表现到底会如何。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Friday, March 28, 2025, Issue No. 1214

Why is Russia daring to put forward new interests demands to the Trump administration for a "pro-Russian regime to come to power in Ukraine"?

[Media Coverage]

On March 28, Russian President Putin said during an exchange with the officers and soldiers of the nuclear-powered cruiser "Severodvinsk" that the Russian military holds the strategic initiative across the entire front line, and the existing administrative institutions in Ukraine are illegal.

【Discussion Summary】

● China, the United States, and Russia, or China, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, have been engaged in a game around Northeast Asia for a long time.

Before starting today's review, first of all, let me supplement some content on the main intentions of the Trump administration playing the "Yoon Suk-yeol card".

Trump is not a simple person. In 1964, 18-year-old Trump graduated from the New York Military Academy. In contrast, his predecessor, US President Biden, graduated from the University of Delaware at the age of 23, majoring in history and politics, and then specialized in law.

It is precisely because of this special life experience that Trump has some understanding of certain military common sense and basic strategic situations. Or to put it more bluntly, whether the current military situation on the Korean Peninsula is favorable or unfavorable to the United States, and whether the initiative lies in the hands of the US-Korea military alliance, Trump knows very well.

In our view, for such a "wild card" who is a nuclear-armed country (Trump was the first US president to publicly acknowledge that North Korea is a nuclear-armed country, and he did so twice, with the latest being on March 13, 2025), and with two nuclear powers and strong countries, China and Russia, standing behind him, Trump is very clear that the "Yoon Suk-yeol card" is not easy to play (it is mainly not easy to play in terms of military strategic adventures, but relatively easier to operate politically), and can only be used for extortion (a large number of US national debts will mature from April to July, and the United States is eager to print money, which means being eager to visit China. In addition, before taking office, Trump boasted that he would visit China within 100 days).

It is worth mentioning that this "chess piece" was created by the Biden administration for its own selfish interests. Later, due to internal divisions in US capital interests, the US military (the South Korean military generally listens to the US military) ultimately listened to the "Trump camp", and thus this card fell into Trump's hands.

It should be added that China, the United States, and Russia, or China, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, have been engaged in a game around Northeast Asia for a long time. So we say that Russia was drawn into the current contest between China and the United States over the Korean Peninsula issue this time. As a political force affecting Northeast Asia, Russia has long existed.

On November 26, 1924, the Mongolian People's Republic was established, declaring independence from China. The Beiyang Government at that time did not recognize it. On August 14, 1945, the Nationalist Government signed the "Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance" with the former Soviet Union, agreeing that Outer Mongolia would become independent according to the results of a referendum. The following year, the independence was recognized. It can be said that the Sino-Soviet Treaty signed by the Chiang Kai-shek government under the joint pressure of the Soviet Union and the United States was extremely humiliating. China was a victorious country in World War II and paid a huge price. However, after World War II, it became a political victim of the Yalta system aimed at "US-Soviet co-management of the earth".

December 21, 1949, was Stalin's 70th birthday. The leaders of various communist parties at that time went to celebrate his birthday. Celebrating Stalin's birthday was one of Chairman Mao's purposes for visiting the Soviet Union. The second purpose was to take this opportunity to establish a new Sino-Soviet treaty. Stalin flatly refused, and his words were very final. Of course, at that time, due to China's large population, vast territory, and significant geopolitical advantages, being in a key area of the US-Soviet world rivalry, Stalin did not dare to take China too lightly.

Later, Chairman Mao did not appear in a series of public activities hosted by the Soviet Union for quite a long time. As a result, Western media began to spread rumors that Sino-Soviet talks had broken down and that Stalin had put Chairman Mao under house arrest. At that time, it was the United States that created this rumor. It tried its best to stir up trouble between China and the Soviet Union, slander the authority and reputation of the Soviet Union, and attempt to disintegrate the socialist camp.

Stalin was very anxious about this, but Chairman Mao was very calm and spread the word that Sino-Soviet talks on a new Sino-Soviet treaty were in progress, and he would not return home until a formal agreement was reached. As a result, the Soviet Union had to make some concessions to China. Of course, the so-called "concessions" were mostly some details adjustments, and the original Sino-Soviet treaty framework remained unchanged.

Interestingly, a few days later, Stalin suddenly made significant concessions to China. The reason was that a few days earlier, US Secretary of State Acheson publicly acknowledged that "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China" and announced that "Korea is not within the US East Asian defense perimeter", thereby sending out strong signals to all parties that the United States intended to improve relations with New China.

The Americans seem to have finally realized the situation. Although New China abolished the previous unequal treaties with the United States through an article titled "Farewell, John Leighton Stuart", it seems that the United States had no reason to push New China completely to the Soviet side? This is very similar to Trump's repeated emphasis today on "why push Russia to the side of China". Trump's original intention was still to stir up trouble between China and Russia from Russia's perspective.

Stalin naturally saw through the Americans' intentions. In order not to let New China be pulled away by the Americans, he had no choice but to make relatively large concessions to New China. On February 14, 1950, representatives of the two countries finally signed the "Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance" and related agreements in Moscow, which was a major achievement in New China's diplomacy. To distinguish it from the old treaty signed with the Kuomintang in 1945, Premier Zhou specially added the word "mutual assistance" to the name of the new treaty, that is, the "Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance". However, despite this, on the issue of Outer Mongolia's independence, the Soviet Union still refused to budge, and the Soviet Union demanded that New China not introduce foreign investment in Northeast China and Xinjiang.

As a follow-up to this Sino-US-Soviet game, Stalin, who did not want to suffer such losses quietly, dug a big pit for New China in Korea and tried to make New China willingly hand over Northeast China and Xinjiang to the Soviet Union for "protection".

Today we are strong and will no longer suffer the kind of losses under the constraints of the Yalta system as in the past. As long as China does its own thing well, we have long had the cards to deal with Russia in our hands. Therefore, Russia would rather fight with Europe and the United States in Ukraine for more than three years and would not dare to take hasty actions on the issue of "breaking the situation in South Asia".

● As the largest ally and one of the traditional allies of the United States, the European Union has clearly noticed that the Trump administration has once again bumped into the "steel plate" of the "China principle" and is being severely beaten by Russia.

Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at a news report.

On March 25, the White House announced the results of the technical-level talks between the US delegation and the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Riyadh from the 23rd to the 25th. On the same day, Russia also announced the main results of the talks between the Russian and US delegations in Riyadh.

Two documents released by the White House show that the United States and Russia and Ukraine both agreed to ensure navigation safety in the Black Sea, eliminate the possibility of using force, and prevent commercial ships from being used for military purposes. The United States and Russia and Ukraine both agreed to formulate measures to implement the agreement prohibiting attacks on the energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine previously reached by US President Trump, Russian President Putin, and Ukrainian President Zelensky.

According to a statement published on the Kremlin website on the 25th, the main results of the Russia-US talks include five points: Russia and the United States agreed to ensure the implementation of the Black Sea port agricultural product export agreement, the United States promoted the restoration of Russian agricultural products and fertilizer export access to the world market, Russia and the United States formulated measures to stop attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities, Russia and the United States welcomed third-party mediation in implementing energy and maritime agreements, and Russia and the United States will continue to work towards achieving lasting peace.

Although the meeting results announced by both sides involve some content on lifting economic and financial sanctions on Russia, from Russian President Putin's latest remarks on Ukraine during an exchange with the officers and soldiers of the nuclear-powered cruiser "Severodvinsk", saying that the Russian military holds the strategic initiative across the entire front line and the existing administrative institutions in Ukraine are illegal, it is obvious that the Russian side is not satisfied with such "piecemeal" negotiation results.

In our view, the reason why the Russian side dares to put forward new interests demands to the Trump administration for a "pro-Russian regime to come to power in Ukraine" is that it has seen that after two groups of people in the United States (former US Treasury Secretary Paulson and California Congressman Daines) visited China and failed one after another, Sino-US relations have not only failed to improve but have become even more tense - China's counterattacks against the Trump administration have been very sharp (starting from the full implementation of the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law"). The "China-US conflict" has not only escalated into a "comprehensive trade war", but China has also launched financial attacks on the United States. In this case, a hot war between China and the United States is even possible. Trump's government has almost been cornered. It is worth mentioning that many US companies that have been sanctioned by China and hit by Chinese financial strikes are backed by Trump's bosses on Wall Street.

It is obvious that Russia's latest interests demand is that Ukraine must establish a pro-Russian regime. Russia's demands are tantamount to completely reversing the current situation in Ukraine, which also means that what Russia and the United States just talked about in Riyadh has become history. It seems that it is not so easy for Trump to use Russia's "shoulder" to open the situation for his visit to China, just as Nixon used China's "shoulder" to open the situation for his visit to the Soviet Union. What is even more ironic is that French Foreign Minister Barrot, who visited Beijing on March 27, emphasized that "it is more necessary than ever to strengthen Franco-China relations".

France, as one of the two major "political vanguards" of the European Union, has clearly put the Trump administration in an embarrassing position with such a statement by its foreign minister. It seems that as the largest ally and one of the traditional allies of the United States, the European Union has clearly noticed that the Trump administration has once again bumped into the "steel plate" of the "China principle" and is being severely beaten by Russia.

● To prevent Japan and South Korea from quickly gravitating towards China under heavy pressure, the Trump administration resorted to its old tricks, using the sovereignty disputes over the Socotra Rock and the Diaoyu Islands to sow discord and create confrontation among the three countries.

Actually, the Trump administration has not only been harsh on the EU, but also extremely wary of Japan and South Korea.

Just around the time when China and South Korea had a standoff near the Socotra Rock on March 18, we noticed relevant news reports that several Japanese fishing boats intruded into China's Diaoyu Islands and were driven away by the Chinese side. From March 21 to 24, Japanese fishing boats "Ruihui Maru", "Daihachi Kyohei Maru", "Daihachi Taisho Maru", and "Zenkou Maru No.2" illegally entered China's territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands. Chinese coast guard vessels took necessary control measures in accordance with the law and warned and drove them away.

Speaking of which, the currency swap agreement signed between China and Japan in 2012 was a significant event. It involved multiple aspects such as the economies, politics, and regional cooperation of the two countries. However, there were some unknown secrets behind this agreement. For example, it led to the mysterious deaths of two important Japanese figures.

These two figures were Tadahiro Matsushita, Japan's Financial Services Minister, and Kenichi Nishimura, Japan's Ambassador to China. They were both major promoters of the China-Japan currency swap agreement. They actively participated in the negotiation and signing of the agreement in order to promote economic cooperation and improve political relations between China and Japan. However, shortly after the signing of the agreement, they met unfortunate fates in different places. On September 10, 2012, Tadahiro Matsushita hanged himself at his home. Just six days later, Kenichi Nishimura suddenly fell unconscious near his home and died despite being sent to the hospital.

It is obvious that the United States has always been highly vigilant about the rapprochement among China, Japan, and South Korea. Once it detects any signs unfavorable to the United States, it will interfere. One of the main means is to stir up opposition among the national relations and social sentiments of the three countries. For example, a certain "famous anti-Japanese activist" back then was later proven to be a notorious "Hong Kong independence" figure.

● One of the main intentions of the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law" is to significantly raise the threshold for the United States and other parties, including the United States' traditional allies, to interact with China.

Trump brandished the tariff stick at Japan and South Korea, attempting to form a "tariff anti-China alliance" and using it as a means of extortion to coerce the international community to cooperate with Trump's visit to China. To prevent Japan and South Korea from quickly gravitating towards China under heavy pressure, the Trump administration resorted to its old tricks, using the sovereignty disputes over the Socotra Rock and the Diaoyu Islands to sow discord and create confrontation among the three countries. That is to say, first of all, it aims to create a negative atmosphere among the Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean societies and create obstacles to the normal easing of relations among the three countries.

Facing the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law" introduced by China, the Americans may have shot themselves in the foot this time. Article 7 of the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law" stipulates that the anti-sanction decisions of relevant departments of the State Council are final decisions, and administrative reconsideration or appeal cannot be filed.

In our view, "final decision-making" and "non-suitability" are similar to the effects of US foreign sanctions measures, ensuring the strength and equivalent effects of countermeasures. To put it simply, whoever follows the United States to deal with China will be sanctioned by China in the same way. In other words, there are two suns in the sky. It's not that China asks you to choose sides, but that the United States asks you to choose sides. Of course, how to choose is your freedom, but choosing the wrong side will come at a heavy price.

It is obvious that China's sharp counterattacks will objectively significantly raise the threshold for the United States and other parties, including the United States' traditional allies, to interact with China.

The continuous deterioration of relations between the United States and its traditional allies is definitely a major loss for US national interests. However, for this small group of Trump, it may still be possible to play such a game. This is called "seeking fortune in adversity". Of course, the fortune here first refers to Trump's own fortune, and then the fortune of his small group. So, in a sense, deliberately creating a major world economic depression may not be something that Trump hasn't considered. Once this happens, the United States will find a reason to publicly and massively start the printing press, and Trump can also take the opportunity to speed up his pursuit of dictatorship and become a veritable "Hitler the Second".

The question is, whether the "red giant effect" can be relatively smoothly initiated. The primary prerequisite is to obtain China's tacit consent. Otherwise, the problem is simplified to whether Trump and the "Trump camp" can run faster than the financial market. The Trump camp will surely make a last-ditch effort, which also means that the possibility of an "American version of the Tumu Crisis" is increasing.

● Ukraine and the Middle East may still go through a relatively long period before truly welcoming the day of peace.

The continuous deterioration of Sino-US relations will inevitably put the Trump administration's Middle East policy in a more difficult situation. Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at a news report.

On March 26, the Riyadh talks discussed Saudi Arabia acting as a supervisor for Russia to stop attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

In our view, the idea of letting Saudi Arabia act as a supervisor for Russia to stop attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure was most likely proposed by the United States. Of course, it may have also received some kind of tacit consent from Russia. The attitude of the EU is not clear.

During French Foreign Minister's visit to China, he will surely talk about the Ukraine issue. France's intention is obviously to draw China in to exert influence on the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia. That is to say, the EU is trying to involve China in the situation, starting from the Ukraine issue. But their real intention lies elsewhere. They are currently more concerned about the Middle East issue, such as further involvement in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. However, the problem is that the Syrian interim government has not given the international community a satisfactory attitude on the "East Turkestan" issue. Therefore, Ukraine and the Middle East may still go through a relatively long period before truly welcoming the day of peace.

In this regard, we remind the Russian decision-making level to act carefully and not to make the relationship between the United States and Europe absolutely confrontational. In our view, the United States and Europe still retain the option of seizing the opportunity to accelerate the process of substantially digesting Russia. The international community need not worry too much. The United States, Europe, Russia, and other parties, all of whom have their own ulterior motives and seem very anxious about the Ukraine issue and the Middle East issue, may ultimately end up coming to China after going around in circles.

Finally, it should be added that one of the main reasons why the United States and Russia are so eager to continue talks on the Ukraine issue is that both sides urgently need a ceasefire, especially the United States. Not to mention other things, the recently formidable Houthi armed forces have probably made all parties realize that what the Trump administration previously boasted about, that the US military has the ability to control major canals, straits, routes, and ports around the world, was just hot air. It can't even deal with a small Houthi armed force, let alone the whole world?

In our observation and assessment, if the United States cannot deal with the Houthi armed forces even with two aircraft carriers concentrated, this reality may become the starting point for the rapid collapse of US military hegemony. Therefore, countries such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea, while gravitating towards China, are also closely watching the United States and how the US military will perform in the Middle East.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

原文作者公众号：

广州市贯日翻译服务有限公司为东方时评-衍射传媒/衍射咨询提供翻译支持

翻译请联系http://www.en-ch.com/chcontact.htm

手机微信13924166640

广州市越秀区环市东路世界贸易中心大厦南塔24楼 020-86266990