2025年4月8日，星期二，第1221期

再次强调，针对特朗普政府发动的“关税战”，中国在第一时间对其犀利且全面反击的极端重要性

【媒体报道】

自美国总统特朗普2日宣布全面征收“对等关税”以来，多国政要纷纷发声反对关税，誓言将采取应对措施。马来西亚总理安瓦尔4月6日晚表示，马来西亚将带头协调东盟国家对特朗普关税做出回应。“作为东盟主席国，马来西亚将带头努力建立统一的地区阵线，维护开放和有弹性的供应链，并确保东盟的集体声音在国际舞台上得到清晰和坚定的倾听。”安瓦尔在社交媒体上发表视频讲话说。

【讨论纪要】

●特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”或让马来西亚当局想起了“97亚洲金融危机”的痛苦回忆

我们注意到马来西亚总理安瓦尔“马来西亚将带头协调东盟国家对特朗普关税做出回应”的相关表态。在展开今天的回顾之前，我们就昨天的讨论补充一些内容。

特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”或让马来西亚当局想起了“97亚洲金融危机”。当时危机从泰国开始并迅速席卷马来西亚、印尼、菲律宾，并逐步扩展至中国香港、韩国、日本和俄罗斯。危机给东南亚各国制造了深重灾难。为此，时任马来西亚总理马哈蒂尔怒斥索罗斯，“我们奋斗了三四十年才把国家发展到这样的水平，但冒出了一个拥有数十亿美元的人，他在两个星期之内就毁掉了我们所取得的大部分成就。”

此外，在我们看来，特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”很可能会造成类似马来西亚这样国家的经济剧烈波动。特朗普政府一方面以此对这些国家施压，胁迫他们加入“关税反华同盟”，一方面给中国主导推行的RCEP、关键时刻开启“最低经济内循环”以及“循环升级”制造潜在困难，另一方面会寻着“水淹南方”的思路，妄图重温“97亚洲金融危机”的旧梦，配合公开、史无前例的大规模开启印钞机抄底这些发生严重经济，甚至金融危机的国家。退一步说，如果以上意图达不到目的，不能从美国之外去掠夺，那就在西方内部，甚至美国内部进行掠夺。在这场疯狂的“关税战”中，很多西方国家，包括美国的企业、公司也会死掉，它们就会成为华尔街金融大鳄们的丰盛晚餐。

●就总体上而言，欧盟的动作仍属于试探范畴

为了更好地展开讨论，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

4月7日，据英国媒体报道，未来几天，欧盟国家将在应对美国关税问题上展现统一立场，并可能批准对高达280亿美元的美国进口商品采取首套有针对性的反制措施。

再次强调，针对特朗普政府发动的“关税战”，中国在第一时间对其犀利且全面反击的极端重要性。正是因为中国在第一时间做出犀利且全面的反击，让很多国家和组织，包括，欧、俄、日、印等，同样在第一时间选择了观望而不是“下跪”（类似大雁一样，中国就是“头雁”，他们可以借助“头雁”提供的“上升气流”更为省力的飞翔。放在“关税战”中就是，因为有中国顶在最前面，它们才有第一时间选择观望而非“下跪”的空间）。他们都在看特朗普政府面对中国这个硬茬儿到底会怎么办。

显然，他们或没有能力，或没有意志力，或没有决心去对抗美国的霸凌行径，而中国为他们树立了榜样。值得一提的是，在我们的观察中，目前阶段，欧盟在观望之余已经开始小心翼翼制定自己的反击方案，毕竟这涉及欧盟切切实实的经济利益。当然，就总体上而言，欧盟的动作仍属于试探范畴。

●来自华尔街“盟友”就关税政策接二连三的批评让特朗普感到压力巨大

4月6日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，股市崩盘是其“故意”而为。特朗普称，“关税政策虽是一步险棋，但正在奏效。关税政策促进美国企业在国内进行生产，促使农民将更多农产品在国内销售，从而降低食品价格。通过调整关税和股市将进一步降低物价，美国中产阶级受益”。与此同时，特朗普敦促美国人民“保持耐心”。

然而就在特朗普以上“慷慨陈词”过去不到24小时，其在乘坐总统专机“空军一号”时与记者谈到全面关税措施对美国经济的影响时则改口称：“并非故意策划股市抛售。我不希望任何股票下跌，但有时候为了解决某些问题，你不得不吃药。我们一直被其他国家恶意相待，是因为我们过去那些愚蠢的领导层任由这种事情发生。”

在我们看来，随着特朗普在华尔街的大金主们（他们也可能是真正幕后老板的代言人，扮演类似保尔森这种“话事者”的角色），比如，知名对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼和斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒，接二连三的批评特朗普政府的关税政策，这让特朗普感到了巨大压力，因为他们都是特朗普的所谓的“支持者”。

特朗普的内部敌人自然是看到了这一幕，于是也在纷纷观望之余也开始有所行动，比如，美国前总统奥巴马对特朗普政策的抨击，甚至威胁称，别因为特朗普行为古怪就以为他的总统任期不会有危险。我们不需要一个自封的国王、伪独裁者、到处惩罚敌人的人再来四年。

●特朗普政府对全球，尤其是对中国发动“关税战”，是一种不折不扣的反经济规律的倒行逆施

2025年4月8日外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。

土耳其媒体记者提问，美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果中方在4月8日前不取消报复性关税，美方将对中国再加征50％关税。中方对此有何回应？

林剑表示，美方滥施关税严重侵犯各国正当权益，严重违反世界贸易组织规则，严重损害以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，严重冲击全球经济秩序稳定，是典型的单边主义、保护主义、经济霸凌，遭到国际社会普遍反对，中方对此强烈谴责、坚决反对。我要再次强调，贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中国人不惹事，也不怕事，施压、威胁和讹诈不是同中方打交道的正确方式。中方必将采取必要措施，坚决维护自身正当合法权益。如果美方置两国和国际社会的利益于不顾，执意打关税战、贸易战，中方必将奉陪到底。

在我们看来，内焦外困的特朗普感到了极端痛苦，以至于其言论显得有些歇斯底里了。对此，我们想说的只有一句话：请将墨西哥列入美国的关税清单或迫使墨西哥政府跟随美国对中国商品加征关税！

想要提醒特朗普政府的是，以2017年为例（2017年1月20日，特朗普开始其身为美国总统的第一任期），当时的中美贸易总值为5837亿美元，中国顺差达到了2759亿美元。到了2024年，中美贸易总额6882.8亿美元，中国对美国贸易顺差3610亿美元。相对2017年不仅没有衰退，反而小幅增长。也就是说，特朗普从他的第一任期，对中国2000亿美元进口商品加征关税的2018年到今天的7年多时间里，“贸易战”基本上打了个寂寞。这还不算通过第三方，比如，墨西哥，越南这样的国家转口中国商品进入美国的数据。

这充分说明一件事，那就是美国制造业的萎缩正在以肉眼可见的速度不断恶化，作为“纯消费国家”的特朗愈发明显，美国社会维持正常生产、生活运行所必需的商品，美国对以中国为首的亚洲经济的依赖性越来越严重。不难看出，特朗普政府对全球，尤其是对中国发动“关税战”，是一种不折不扣的反经济规律的倒行逆施。

●本质上说，今天的美国是“钢少气也少”，而中国则是“钢多气也多”！

对于欧盟、日本、印度、韩国、越南等国家和组织而言，他们的痛苦在于，距离必须做选择的时刻越来越近，而投机的空间越来越小。他们必须在到底是跟着美国得利多，还是跟着中国得利多的问题上小心权衡。

所谓“小心权衡”的意思就在于，“关税战”的一个主要图谋是妄图拼凑所谓“关税反华同盟”，所以，中国通过在第一时间做出犀利却全面反击，也在于对方方面面树立一个明确预期：你们害怕美国这个流氓，难道不怕中国的正义之举吗？ 换言之，只要你们跟着美国反华，中国一定会采取报复性措施，且同样犀利且全面。你们所付出的代价一定比跟着美国得到的利益大得多得多。你们除了明明白白去计算自己实实在在的利益得失，比如，经济利益，外没有其他选择。

友情提醒这些国家、组织，只谈经济利益，对你们挥舞关税大棒的，逼你们选边站队的不是中国而是美国。与美国相比，中国留给你们足够的权衡空间和时间，只是提醒你们小心评估跟随美国对中国加征关税的后果。由此也能凸显中国第一时间对特朗普发动“关税战”进行犀利且全面反击的极端重要性。这恐怕是包括欧盟、东盟在内的许多国家和组织，尽管总体上仍在观望、仍在试探，但已经在经济利益之外，摆出对特朗普政府基于人心向背层面的厌恶、反感的主要原因。

当然，以欧盟为例，在意识形态上仍然视中国为最大潜在敌人，所以，在非传统安全层面欧盟反制美国关税政策会做到什么程度，用一句话形容那就是，“有希望，不指望，外加高度警惕”。至于俄罗斯，要更加警惕，近段时间以来，俄罗斯和美国基于非传统安全层面的合作可能性愈发增加。但总的来说，特朗普对全球发动“关税战”打乱了既有全球格局，尤其是打乱了西方阵营，这是美帝世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权不断衰落，控制能力不断下降的具体表现。

如果说抗美援朝，就实力而言，我们是“钢少气多”。那么今天的美国，对全球，尤其是对中国发动“关税战”某种意义上说也是“钢少气多”，问题是，特朗普政府的“气”是真的还是假的，是生气的气，还是气概的气？恐怕是前者！所以，本质上说，今天的美国是“钢少气也少”，而中国则是“钢多气也多”！

从根本上说，如果特朗普政府最终不能逼迫这些国家、组织站队，跟着美国对中国加征关税，特朗普于4月2日发动的“关税战”就注定要彻底失败。特朗普和“特朗普们”很清楚，制造业回流美国没有希望，至少走私可以一本万利，比苦哈哈恢复制造业强得多得多。

●特朗普政府向全球，尤其是中国发动“关税战”的几个必然产生的严重后果

在本次回顾的最后，我们不妨简单总结一下特朗普政府向全球，尤其是中国发动“关税战”的几个必然产生的严重后果：

严重后果之一：

美国发动“关税战”后，中美都会经历一个困难时期，且一定会影响到各自原有的经济运行节奏。外国的商品进不去，美国的商品也出不去。虽然看似保护了产品，但这些产品也要出口的，且有产业链的，当关税战导致商品不能出口，那么工厂就会倒闭，工人失业，通胀上升，消费能力下降，其涉及各个层面，非常复杂，很多事情无法预料，这在胡佛为美国总统的时候就曾经发生过。

对美国而言，无论中国是否同意美国都会印钱制造红巨星效应，但这里有一个时间空间的问题。如果中国配合，这种印钱就相对安全（从美国金融市场角度看是相对安全的），否则，市场的反应会非常复杂，非常怀疑的眼光看待特朗普政府。特朗普政府与市场的博弈极其复杂，极其残酷，极其敏感。这是特朗普急于访华的主要原因。特朗普只是想要通过访华将这套政策玩下去的空间加大一些。

所以，本质上，就总体而言，特朗普政府发动的“关税战”不过是基于“时间因素”的急迫下进行“为渊驱鱼”，反而帮了中国的大忙。何况中国目前还仅在亮明态度的阶段，而方方面面都知道，中国既有能力，更有动用能力的决心。所以，在中国第一个，第一时间对特朗普政府“关税战”进行全面且犀利反击的那一刻，方方面面都意识到了一点，那就是，跪美国很容易，但跟随美国反华代价实在太大，且难以承受。于是乎，近乎清一色地选择了观望。

严重后果之二：

我们注意到近期，某美国知名媒体联系了50位华尔街顶级领袖，包括亿万富豪投资者、大型机构资产管理者和美国最大的财富顾问，以评估他们对特朗普经济战略的支持情况。这50位受访者因其巨大影响力而被被选中，他们的反馈凸显了近期市场的动荡。

从上述新闻报道中大家不难看出，特朗普政府对全球，尤其对中国发动“关税战”，在第一时间遭受中国犀利且全面反击，国内市场一片哀鸿遍野的情况下，本就日甚一日的美国内部恶斗如何平息？

也就是说，本计划在“再次登基”之后百日之内就“进京述职、寻求中国配合、至少是默认其正式、公开、大规模印钱、以迅速全方位缓解美国各种压力”的特朗普，在“索要进京机票”最终未果的“迄今过程”中，这套“王八拳”打下来，如果仍然不能尽快、比如，从4月10日开始的3个月内、实现上述核心意图，随着4月开始的未来一段，在贸易战争全面升级的冲击下，大幅且可能无序波动的美国金融市场所带来的压力，再加上巨量美国国债会集中到期、急于用钱、用天文数字的钱但却又没钱可用（除非不顾一切地公开、正式启动数量上一定是“空前”、从而也“必然”绝后”的QE）的特朗普政府、不单会承受来自西方阵营内部的反噬，也会明显遭遇来自美国内部的各种反噬、特别是美国资本内部的反噬，甚至可能全面演化成“来自特朗普们内部的反噬”。

当然，如果最终“关税战”名存实亡，中国也不会揭穿。因为中国商品仍然可以继续源源不断地通过墨西哥这样的渠道进入美国，到头来不过是另一个版本的“河渡人”。

严重后果之三：

以上提到了“巨量美国国债会集中到期”。再次强调，一旦在“时间因素”，巨量债务，更为恶化的美国内部政治生态等综合因素的强大压力下，在没有得到中国默许情况下，不顾一切地公开、正式启动数量上一定是“空前”、从而也“必然”绝后”的QE的话，美元的命就握在中国手里，中国可以随时说，我不要美元了。而与其如影随形的是特朗普和市场之间十分残酷且极度敏感的博弈。可谓稍有风吹草动，就会出现连华尔街都无法预料和掌握的剧烈波动。

不难想象的是，如果连金融游戏都不能愉快地玩耍，那还要你特朗普做什么？一旦华尔街对特朗普动了杀心，特朗普和其家族还有未来吗？所以，在我们看来，特朗普除了妥协，拿出态度好好和中国谈，比如，落地执行“太平洋足够大容得下中美两国”等话题外（一系列的措施要做到“不可逆”，因为特朗普政府要求中国不能在传统、非传统安全层面不能孤立美国，且一系列的措施也要做到“不可逆”），没有其他出路。

●中国对美“关税战”的反击，维护的是全球大多数国家、组织的共同利益

我们注意到近日，在谈到特朗普的关税政策时，世界贸易组织（WTO）前总干事、前欧盟贸易专员帕斯卡尔·拉米告诉英国媒体—— 以这位美国总统能理解的方式强硬回击，才是最佳的回应方式。“我认为，特朗普在纽约受黑手党影响的房地产市场上学会了做生意，他的策略是基于敲诈勒索——只要没拿到满意的价码就会持续施压。在我看来，展示你的实力是对付他及其团队的正确方式。”。

WTO，包括联合国在内，原本都是服务于美帝的，而现在美帝对他们的控制越来越困难了，中国在维护WTO，所以要抛弃他们。某种意义上说，特朗普政府发动“关税战”正在毁灭WTO。

从这一点来看，目前阶段，WTO对世界大多数国家、组织还是有利的。这也是我们可以基于非传统安全层面，对上瞄着WTO世贸规则，对下瞄着方方面面最为实在的经济利益对美帝施行“尊王攘夷”的主要原因之一。中国对特朗普“关税战”在第一时间，第一个进行犀利且全面的反击，也是维护了包括广大南方国家，甚至部分发达国家，也就是蓝星大多数国家、组织的共同利益。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Tuesday, April 8, 2025, Issue No. 1221

Once again, we emphasize the extreme importance of China's sharp and comprehensive counterattack against the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration in a timely manner.

[Media Coverage]

Since US President Trump announced the full imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on the 2nd, many political leaders around the world have spoken out against tariffs and vowed to take countermeasures. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said in a video speech on social media on the evening of April 6th that Malaysia will take the lead in coordinating ASEAN countries' responses to Trump's tariffs. "As the Chair of ASEAN, Malaysia will take the lead in striving to establish a unified regional front, safeguard an open and resilient supply chain, and ensure that ASEAN's collective voice is heard clearly and firmly on the international stage."

【Discussion Summary】

● The "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world may remind the Malaysian authorities of the painful memories of the "1997 Asian Financial Crisis".

We have noted Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's statement that "Malaysia will take the lead in coordinating ASEAN countries' responses to Trump's tariffs". Before reviewing today's events, we would like to supplement some content from yesterday's discussion.

The "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world may remind the Malaysian authorities of the "1997 Asian Financial Crisis". At that time, the crisis started in Thailand and quickly swept through Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and gradually spread to Hong Kong, China, South Korea, Japan, and Russia. The crisis brought profound disasters to Southeast Asian countries. For this reason, then-Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad angrily condemned Soros, saying, "We struggled for three or four decades to develop the country to this level, but a man with billions of dollars came along and destroyed most of what we had achieved in just two weeks."

In addition, in our view, the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world is very likely to cause severe economic fluctuations in countries like Malaysia. On the one hand, the Trump administration uses this to pressure these countries and coerce them into joining the "tariff anti-China alliance". On the other hand, it creates potential difficulties for China-led initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the crucial activation of the "lowest economic internal circulation", and the "circulation upgrade". Moreover, following the idea of "flooding the South", it attempts to relive the nightmare of the "1997 Asian Financial Crisis" and cooperate with the unprecedented large-scale opening of the printing press to buy the bottom of countries that experience severe economic or even financial crises. In a worst-case scenario, if the above intentions fail to achieve their goals and they cannot plunder from outside the United States, they will plunder within the West, or even within the United States itself. In this crazy "tariff war", many Western companies, including those in the United States, will also die, becoming a sumptuous dinner for Wall Street financial predators.

● Generally speaking, the actions of the EU are still in the exploratory stage.

To better facilitate the discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On April 7th, according to British media reports, in the coming days, EU countries will show a unified stance in responding to US tariffs and may approve the first set of targeted countermeasures against up to $28 billion worth of US imports.

Once again, we emphasize the extreme importance of China's sharp and comprehensive counterattack against the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration in a timely manner. It is precisely because China made a sharp and comprehensive counterattack immediately that many countries and organizations, including Europe, Russia, Japan, India, etc., also chose to observe rather than "kneel down" (similar to a flock of geese, China is the "lead goose", and they can use the "updraft" provided by the "lead goose" to fly more effortlessly. In the context of the "tariff war", it means that because China is at the forefront, they have the space to choose to observe rather than "kneel down"). They are all watching what the Trump administration will do in the face of China, a tough opponent.

Obviously, they either lack the ability, the willpower, or the determination to confront US bullying. China has set an example for them. It is worth mentioning that in our observation, at this stage, while observing, the EU has begun to carefully formulate its own countermeasures, after all, this involves the real economic interests of the EU. Of course, generally speaking, the actions of the EU are still in the exploratory stage.

● The successive criticisms of the tariff policy by Trump's Wall Street "allies" have put tremendous pressure on him.

On April 6th, US President Trump stated on social media that the stock market crash was "intentional" on his part. Trump said, "Although the tariff policy is a risky move, it is working. The tariff policy promotes US companies to produce domestically, encouraging farmers to sell more agricultural products in the domestic market, thereby reducing food prices. By adjusting tariffs and the stock market, prices will further decrease, benefiting the US middle class." At the same time, Trump urged the American people to "be patient."

However, less than 24 hours after Trump's "grand remarks," when he talked to reporters about the impact of the comprehensive tariff measures on the US economy while on board the presidential plane "Air Force One," he changed his tune, saying, "I did not deliberately plan the stock market sell-off. I don't want any stocks to fall, but sometimes to solve certain problems, you have to take medicine. We have been treated maliciously by other countries because our past stupid leadership let this happen."

In our view, as Trump's big financial backers on Wall Street (who may also be spokespersons for the real behind-the-scenes bosses, playing a role similar to that of Paulson as a "key decision-maker"), such as well-known hedge fund managers Bill Ackman and Stanley Druckenmiller, have successively criticized the Trump administration's tariff policy, Trump has felt tremendous pressure because they are all so-called "supporters" of Trump.

Naturally, Trump's internal enemies have also seen this scene. While observing, they have also begun to take action. For example, former US President Obama has criticized Trump's policies and even threatened that just because Trump behaves oddly doesn't mean his presidency is not in danger. "We don't need a self-proclaimed king, a pseudo-dictator, and someone who punishes enemies everywhere for another four years."

● The Trump administration's launching of a "tariff war" globally, especially against China, is a blatant reversal of economic laws.

On April 8th, 2025, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference.

A Turkish media reporter asked, US President Trump has threatened that if China does not cancel retaliatory tariffs by April 8th, the US will impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. What is China's response to this?

Lin Jian stated that the US's wanton imposition of tariffs seriously violates the legitimate rights and interests of all countries, severely violates World Trade Organization rules, seriously damages the multilateral trade system based on rules, and severely impacts the stability of the global economic order. It is a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying, and has been widely opposed by the international community. China strongly condemns and firmly opposes this. I would like to emphasize again that there are no winners in a trade war or tariff war, and protectionism leads nowhere. The Chinese people do not cause trouble, nor are they afraid of trouble. Pressure, threats, and blackmail are not the correct ways to deal with China. China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. If the US disregards the interests of both countries and the international community and insists on waging a tariff war and trade war, China will accompany it to the end.

In our view, Trump, who is in internal turmoil and external distress, is in such extreme pain that his remarks seem somewhat hysterical. Regarding this, we have only one thing to say: Please include Mexico in the US tariff list or force the Mexican government to follow the US in imposing tariffs on Chinese goods!

What we want to remind the Trump administration is that taking 2017 as an example (on January 20th, 2017, Trump began his first term as US president), the total value of Sino-US trade at that time was $583.7 billion, with China's surplus reaching $275.9 billion. By 2024, the total Sino-US trade volume reached $688.28 billion, with China's trade surplus with the US at $361 billion. Compared to 2017, it has not only failed to decline but has grown slightly. That is to say, from Trump's first term, when he imposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports in 2018, to today, more than seven years later, the "trade war" has been largely in vain. This does not even include data from third-party countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam, through which Chinese goods are transshipped into the US.

This fully demonstrates one thing: the atrophy of US manufacturing is deteriorating at an alarming rate, and the nature of the US as a "pure consumer country" is becoming increasingly evident. The dependence of US society on the Asian economy, led by China, for the goods necessary to maintain normal production and life operations is becoming more and more serious. It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration's launching of a "tariff war" globally, especially against China, is a blatant reversal of economic laws.

● Essentially, today's United States is "low on steel and morale", while China is "ample in steel and morale"!

For countries and organizations such as the EU, Japan, India, South Korea, and Vietnam, their pain lies in the fact that the moment when they must make a choice is getting closer, while the room for speculation is shrinking. They must carefully weigh whether following the United States will bring more benefits or following China will.

The so-called "careful weighing" means that one of the main plots of the "tariff war" is to try to cobble together a so-called "tariff anti-China alliance". Therefore, China's sharp and comprehensive counterattack immediately is also to set a clear expectation for all parties: Are you afraid of the rogue United States, but not afraid of China's just actions?

In other words, as long as you follow the United States in anti-China actions, China will definitely take retaliatory measures, and they will be just as sharp and comprehensive. The price you pay will be much greater than the benefits you get from following the United States. You have no choice but to clearly calculate your real interests and losses, such as economic interests.

Friendly reminder to these countries and organizations: It is the United States, not China, that brandishes the tariff baton at you and forces you to choose sides. Compared with the United States, China leaves you enough room and time for deliberation, just reminding you to carefully evaluate the consequences of following the United States in imposing tariffs on China. This also highlights the extreme importance of China's sharp and comprehensive counterattack against the "tariff war" launched by Trump immediately. This is probably the main reason why many countries and organizations, including the EU and ASEAN, although generally still observing and probing, have shown their disgust and aversion to the Trump administration based on popular sentiment, in addition to economic interests.

Of course, taking the EU as an example, ideologically, it still regards China as the biggest potential enemy. Therefore, to what extent the EU will counteract the US tariff policy at the non-traditional security level can be described in one sentence: "Hopeful but not counting on it, plus highly vigilant." As for Russia, it needs to be even more vigilant. In recent times, the possibility of cooperation between Russia and the United States at the non-traditional security level has been increasing. But overall, Trump's launching of a "tariff war" globally has disrupted the existing global pattern, especially the Western camp. This is a concrete manifestation of the continuous decline of US imperialist world hegemony, especially its financial hegemony, and the continuous weakening of its control ability.

If we say that in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, in terms of strength, we were "low on steel but high on morale", then today's United States, in launching a "tariff war" globally, especially against China, is also "low on steel and morale" in a sense. The question is, is the "morale" of the Trump administration real or fake, is it the anger of being offended or the spirit of courage? It's probably the former! Therefore, essentially, today's United States is "low on steel and morale", while China is "ample in steel and morale"!

Fundamentally speaking, if the Trump administration ultimately fails to force these countries and organizations to take sides and follow the United States in imposing tariffs on China, the "tariff war" launched by Trump on April 2nd is doomed to end in complete failure. Trump and the "Trumps" are very clear that there is no hope of manufacturing returning to the United States. At least smuggling can be extremely profitable, much better than painstakingly restoring manufacturing.

● Several Inevitable Serious Consequences of the "Tariff War" Launched by the Trump Administration Globally, Especially Against China

At the end of this review, let's briefly summarize several inevitable serious consequences of the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration globally, especially against China:

Serious Consequence One:

After the United States launched the "tariff war", both China and the United States will go through a difficult period, and it will surely affect their respective original economic operation rhythms. Foreign goods cannot enter the United States, and US goods cannot be exported. Although it seems to protect products, these products also need to be exported, and they are part of the industrial chain. When the tariff war causes goods to not be exported, factories will close down, workers will lose their jobs, inflation will rise, and consumption capacity will decline. It involves various levels and is extremely complex, with many things unpredictable. This has happened before when Hoover was the President of the United States.

For the United States, whether China agrees or not, the United States will print money to create a red giant effect. But there is a problem of time and space here. If China cooperates, this kind of money printing is relatively safe (relatively safe from the perspective of the US financial market). Otherwise, the market's reaction will be very complex, and the Trump administration will be viewed with great suspicion. The game between the Trump administration and the market is extremely complex, cruel, and sensitive. This is the main reason why Trump is eager to visit China. Trump just wants to increase the room for maneuver in implementing this set of policies through his visit to China.

So, essentially, overall, the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration is just a hasty "driving away the fish to the deep end" based on the "time factor", which actually helps China a lot. Moreover, China is currently only in the stage of making its attitude clear, and everyone knows that China has both the ability and the determination to use it. So, at the moment when China was the first to comprehensively and sharply counterattack the "tariff war" of the Trump administration, everyone realized one thing: it is easy to kneel to the United States, but the cost of following the United States in anti-China actions is too high and unbearable. As a result, they almost unanimously chose to observe.

Serious Consequence Two:

We have noticed that recently, a well-known US media outlet contacted 50 top Wall Street leaders, including billionaire investors, large institutional asset managers, and the largest wealth advisors in the United States, to assess their support for Trump's economic strategy. These 50 respondents were selected because of their great influence, and their feedback highlights the recent market turmoil.

From the above news report, it is not difficult to see that after the Trump administration launched a "tariff war" globally, especially against China, and was immediately met with a sharp and comprehensive counterattack from China, with the domestic market in complete disarray, how can the increasingly fierce internal strife in the United States be calmed down?

That is to say, Trump, who planned to "report to Beijing and seek China's cooperation, at least tacit approval of his formal, public, and large-scale money printing to quickly and comprehensively relieve various pressures in the United States" within 100 days after his "re-inauguration", in the "process so far" of ultimately failing to "get the ticket to Beijing", after this set of "clumsy moves", if he still cannot achieve the above core intentions as soon as possible, for example, within three months starting from April 10th, under the impact of the full escalation of the trade war, the US financial market will come under significant and possibly disorderly pressure from fluctuations. Coupled with the fact that a huge amount of US national debt will mature in a concentrated manner, and the Trump administration, which is eager to spend money but has no money available (unless it recklessly and publicly launches a QE program that is "unprecedented" in scale and thus "inevitably" the last), will not only face backlash from within the Western camp but also clearly encounter various backlashes from within the United States, especially from within US capital. It may even evolve into "backlash from within the Trump camp".

Of course, if the "tariff war" ultimately exists in name only, China will not expose it. Because Chinese goods can still continue to enter the United States smoothly through channels such as Mexico. In the end, it is just another version of "the ferryman ferrying people across the river".

Serious Consequence Three:

The above mentioned that "a huge amount of US national debt will mature". Once again, it is emphasized that under the combined pressure of factors such as "time", a huge amount of debt, and the worsening political ecology within the United States, if the United States recklessly and publicly launches a QE program that is "unprecedented" in scale and thus "inevitably" the last without China's tacit approval, the fate of the US dollar will be in China's hands. China can say at any time that it doesn't want the US dollar anymore. Accompanying this is the extremely cruel and highly sensitive game between Trump and the market. Even the slightest disturbance can lead to severe fluctuations that even Wall Street cannot predict or control.

It is not difficult to imagine that if even the financial game cannot be played happily, then what use is there for you, Trump? Once Wall Street has murderous intentions towards Trump, does Trump and his family have a future? Therefore, in our view, Trump has no choice but to compromise, adopt a proper attitude, and have a good talk with China. For example, implement topics such as "the Pacific is big enough to accommodate both China and the United States" (a series of measures must be "irreversible", because the Trump administration requires that China cannot isolate the United States at the traditional and non-traditional security levels, and a series of measures must also be "irreversible"), otherwise there is no other way out.

● China's counterattack in the "tariff war" against the United States safeguards the common interests of the majority of countries and organizations globally.

We have noted that recently, when talking about Trump's tariff policy, Pascal Lamy, the former Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and former EU Trade Commissioner, told the British media that the best way to respond is to fight back toughly in a way that this US president can understand. "I think Trump learned business in the real estate market in New York, which was influenced by the Mafia. His strategy is based on extortion - he will keep exerting pressure until he gets a satisfactory deal. In my view, showing your strength is the right way to deal with him and his team."

The WTO, including the United Nations, was originally serving the interests of the United States. However, it has become increasingly difficult for the United States to control them. China is safeguarding the WTO, so it should abandon them. In a sense, the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration is destroying the WTO.

From this perspective, at the current stage, the WTO is still beneficial to the majority of countries and organizations in the world. This is also one of the main reasons why we can implement the strategy of "respecting the king and repelling the barbarians" at the non-traditional security level, aiming at the WTO rules above and the most tangible economic interests below. China's sharp and comprehensive counterattack against Trump's "tariff war" in the first place and as the first one also safeguards the common interests of the majority of countries and organizations on this planet, including the vast number of developing countries and even some developed countries.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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