2025年4月23日，星期三，第1232期

中国第一个、第一时间全面犀利反击美国之重要意义，得到希腊前财长瓦鲁法基斯的完美证实

【媒体报道】

4月23日，希腊前财长亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯接受媒体采访。瓦鲁法基斯认为，中国已展现出成熟姿态——就像一群孩童中突然出现的成年人。中国始终保持着战略定力，坚持要求对等原则。瓦鲁法基斯表示，我要给中国朋友们的忠告是：切勿误判形势，认为当美国自身痛苦达到临界点时，特朗普政府就会退缩。只有当美国统治阶级承受的代价足够惨重时，政策才会转向——这才是决定事态发展的终极标准。

【讨论纪要】

●判断“如果特朗普政府实在处理不好中美关系，只能将首访放在沙特，甚至不排除其提前访问沙特之可能性”的出发点

4月22日，白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特在白宫新闻发布会上表示，美国总统特朗普将于5月13日至16日访问沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋这三个中东国家。莱维特表示，此次访问旨在加强与中东国家的关系，“他（注：特朗普）将举行多场双边会谈，我们期待此次访问”。

我们之前在3月31日的讨论中提及过特朗普可能访问沙特的话题，当时我们的初步评估是，不排除特朗普“5月访问沙特”之相关计划会提前的可能性。这一初步评估的出发点是特朗普政府未能有效处理对华关系。而在中东政策上，特朗普还要面对美国前总统拜登给他挖的坑——叙利亚再乱（注：阿萨德政权被颠覆后的叙利亚局势后续发展）。正因为特朗普政府未能有效处理对华关系，其只能转身寻求俄美关系改善，这注定了特朗普政府开局不利，一开始就败了。也就是说，基于有效处理对华关系是特朗普政府“妥善处理‘三大对外关系’（注：中美关系，俄美关系和欧美关系）中的“大多数”才有可能赢得内斗”之“必选项”，美国和俄罗斯谈得再好也没用。

此外，有效处理对华关系的重要性还体现在中国中东地区特殊影响力方面。所谓“特殊影响力”的意思就是，以叙利亚局势后续发展为例，中国虽然没有直接参与其中，但到处都有中国的影子。尤其在以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家为典型代表，可以说，他们背后站着的就是中国。所以，提到中美关系，不仅包括传统层面上的中美政治、经济和军事关系，还要包括美国如何面对中国中东地区特殊影响力这一问题。或者说，今天特朗普政府要面对的中美关系，要比以往“丰富”得多。某种意义上说，特朗普在贸易战、金融维稳、乌克兰问题等都有求于中国，现在又多出一个中东问题。

值得一提的是，特朗普政府在处理中东问题上还有一个障碍，就是以色列内塔尼亚胡政府。内塔尼亚胡小集团瞄准特朗普政府应对内部恶斗日甚一日的现状，对美国内部支持以色列的那部分资本势力愈发依仗这一千载难逢的机会，要求特朗普政府帮助其实现“大以色列梦”，进而规避残酷的政治清算，确保政权永固。面对如此复杂的中东局势，特朗普政府想要摆平难度极高，堪称“只有神仙才能办到”。但迫不得已，特朗普现在只能尝试按自己的方式稳住中东，比如，将第二任期内的首访放在沙特，以示对沙特等海湾阿拉伯国家的重视。这是我们判断，如果特朗普政府实在处理不好中美关系，只能将首访放在沙特，甚至不排除其提前访问沙特之可能性的出发点。

今天的实际情况是，特朗普政府上任百日以来，在处理三大对外关系的问题上交了“白卷”。中美关系持续恶化，欧美关系渐行渐远，至于俄美关系，不难想象，也是毫无成果——我们注意到，4月22日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫有关“俄方并不熟悉美国总统特朗普提出的乌克兰问题和平计划的内容”的相关表述。在我们看来，恐怕俄方并非不知，而是俄美之间就所谓“乌克兰和平计划”的具体内容分歧太大，或干脆说，双方就乌克兰问题上就没有什么大体谈妥的计划。

特朗普政府至今未能妥善处理三大对外关系显然无助于其稳定中东局势。这次特朗普访问沙特，一个重要话题便是如何平衡沙特与以色列之间的关系。所以，特朗普访问沙特，至少在表面上看，是去“送好处”的，而不是“要好处”。否则，沙特恐怕不会理睬。因为沙特现在很忙，有正事要办。

所谓“有正事要办”，其中之一就是，在今年2月份，马来西亚总理安瓦尔宣布将在2025年5月将举办中国、东盟和海合会的三方峰会。

如果我们从中国到东盟，再到中东，连成一线，不难看出，这一路径就是典型的 “一带一路”。而无论是陆地上的丝绸之路，还是海洋上的丝绸之路，源头都在中国。

●昨天对特朗普政府在“关税战”问题上的相关评估得到完美验证。在巨大的内外压力之下，特朗普不得不再次“自打耳光”

在过去的100天时间里，特朗普政府的外交政策可谓全军覆没，毫无亮点。与之相对的是美国内部恶斗的日甚一日。尤其是已经外溢到金融层面。上一期回顾中我们再次提到了美国金融市场再次上演罕见的股汇市三杀，这对特朗普政府产生了莫大压力。

数据显示，截至4月22日，年内美元指数跌幅超9%。4月份以来，短短数周跌幅已超5.5%。其中在4月21日，美元指数盘中接连破99、98两个关口，最低下探至97.9137，创2022年4月份以来新低。4月22日，截至18时，美元指数当日在98.0083至98.5642之间波动。

美元指数跌得太快，甚至比我们想象得还快。这意味着市场上开始大量抛售美元资产，包括但不限于美国国债、美国股票，以及其他的虚拟产品。总之，只要用美元计价的资产似乎都遭到了抛售。街头巷尾都在纷纷议论，美国是否正在酝酿“第二次次贷危机”。

正是在这种巨大的内外压力之下，我们观察到了一则等待性质的重大新闻。

4月23日，美国总统特朗普当地时间22日表示，将“大幅降低”对中国的高额关税。据美国媒体报道，特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者说，“145%是非常高的。不会有那么高的……它将大幅下降，但不会是零。我们会表现得很友好。他们(中国)会很友好，我们看看会发生什么。”此外，另据英国媒体报道，特朗普的言论是对美国财长贝森特22日早些时候言论的回应。贝森特此前表示，高关税是不可持续的，他预计“世界上两大经济体之间的‘贸易战’将会缓和”。

在具体展开讨论之前，我们来看一段昨天回顾的内容：

……

所以，在这种情况下，特朗普的关税政策到底能坚持多久？恐怕包括特朗普自己在内心里也没谱。或许日韩当局也是如此看问题，对于特朗普政府不妨虚与委蛇，搪塞一天是一天，尽管韩国代总统嘴上像抹了蜜一样。

我们也不确定特朗普能坚持多长时间，也许明天我们一早起来他就“举手投降”了。当然，对于特朗普本人而言，无所谓，无非脸再次被打肿而已。尽管如此，一想到虽然脸被打肿，但转身就能赚上100亿、200亿、300亿甚至500亿美元，也许特朗普心里都乐开了花。保不齐特朗普早已事先通知了他的儿女：明天准备“投降”，你们马上抄底！

最后，我们再次提醒投资者，不论是黄金还是其他美元投资，不要过于盲目，否则明天早晨起来可能会立刻傻眼！或美元暴涨，或黄金暴跌，一切都有可能！这就是我们所说的极不可预测，或者本原则上不可预测。以黄金为例，也许到时候，跌到连喊都来不及。即便止损了（注：技术上设置了止损位。典型事件是“原油宝事件”），也来不及止损。所以，非常时期，暂离市场是最好选择。

……

结合以上回顾和上述新闻报道，我们昨天对特朗普政府在“关税战”问题上的相关评估得到完美验证。在巨大的内外压力之下，特朗普不得不再次“自打耳光”。

有趣的是，在特朗普做上述表态后，美股市场立即大涨，其中道指大涨1000点。美股则从98位置反弹到了99以上，美债收益率下降（注：价格上涨），美元资产抛售潮得以缓解。我们多次提及的“特朗普具有强大金融功能”这一特征再次发挥作用——特朗普还是有办法稳住局面的，当然，前提条件就是狠狠地给自己来上一耳光。

由此大家也不难更清晰地认识到，特朗普或“特朗普们”到底是一群什么人——不错过任何发财的机会，即便是反复自己打脸也无所谓，即便内斗日甚一日也无所谓。什么美国百姓的福祉，美国国家利益，美国对外关系，国际局势的风云变幻，特朗普都不在乎。其首先要确保的是如何在4年后，自己不被再次残酷政治清算，其次是自己和自己所在的小利益集团，包括他的家族，他的子女们，如何永享荣华富贵。

●特朗普为第二任期首访沙特准备的“A方案”和“B方案”

在美国金融市场的上蹿下跳中，特朗普赚到了钱，但这只是前提，命也是要保的。前面是充分条件，后面是必要条件。否则，岂不沦为有命赚钱没命花钱。这才是特朗普最核心的想法，也是他活着的唯一的目的，其他都是手段。

如何保命？那就要赢得内斗。如何赢得内斗？妥善处理好三大对外关系中的大多数关系，且有效处理中美关系是“必选项”。至此，我们的讨论便又回到了上文有关特朗普将第二任期首访放在沙特这个话题上。

美帝和别人打交道一向是“胡萝卜+大棒”。特朗普将其第二任期首访放在沙特，是其眼中对沙特抛出的“胡萝卜”，其中也包括此前美国就从叙利亚撤军问题上的放风。当然，特朗普如此高调地将其第二任期首访放在沙特，至少在表面上看是要稳住美国全球战略之重中之重的中东，但这或不是事情的本质。

在我们看来，特朗普此次沙特之行，表面上看是平衡沙特与以色列之间的关系，但实质上或为更好地服务于，甚至取悦于内塔尼亚胡小集团，从而尽最大可能争取到美国内部支持以色列的那部分资本势力的策应。在特朗普政府上台百日，外交全军覆没的情况下，获得这些资本势力的支持，在有助于特朗普掌握内斗主动权的问题上作用显得格外突出。至此，这份内嵌有更好的服务于，甚至取悦于内塔尼亚胡小集团以利内斗之小心思的“大棒”就准备得差不多了。在特朗普看来，如果以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家“敬酒不吃吃罚酒”的话，继续放纵以色列在中东横行霸道就是现成的讹诈手段。如果能够讹诈成功，可谓“一本万利”：其一，服务于，甚至取悦于内塔尼亚胡小集团以利内斗；其二，一定程度上稳住中东；其三，对处理好三大对外关系中的大多数，尤其是中美关系这一“必选项”有所助益。

如果我们将特朗普欲通过改善与沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家之间的关系稳住中东，为后续有效处理中美关系寻找切入点看作是“A方案”的话，与之相对的，通过更好地服务于，甚至取悦于内塔尼亚胡小集团对外讹诈，对内以利内斗就是“B方案”。其中，“A方案”是次要的，“B方案”是主要的。可以说，特朗普表面上拿着的是“A方案”，实际上准备的是“B方案”。反过来，再用“B方案”去推动“A方案”。

值得一提的是，“B方案”的讹诈对象不仅有沙特，更有美国内部特朗普的对头们和美国外部的国际社会。其中自然也包括军事打击伊朗（注：比如，摧毁伊朗的核设施，使其彻底丧失研制核武的能力）与彻底搞乱波斯湾，这也是近段时间我们认为伊朗正承受巨大战略压力所在。

问题在于，特朗普的讹诈是否会成功，沙特又将如何应对？伊朗如何应对？中国和欧盟如何应对？俄罗斯如何被牵动？

这个讹诈范围非常广泛，表面看是基于传统传统安全层面的内容，但其中内嵌基于非传统安全层面的内容。在我们看来，特朗普叫嚣5月拦住了以色列没有打伊朗核设施，实际上就是在或明或暗地将问题指向波斯湾的安全稳定。如果最终特朗普政府不敢在西太方向的任何一点和通过这种“摊牌式”讹诈威胁中国的话（注：如果中美围绕西太控制权的逆转，关岛是可以交易的。美国在西太撑不住了，关岛就成了美国的累赘）。

此外，值得一提的是，特朗普的这一企图，本质上基于“我不好过，你们谁都别想好过”的极端自私理念，对包括美国内部的，现阶段仍代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部，甚至整个西方资本利益在内的全世界进行讹诈。在特朗普看来，如果“美国平台”的存续阻碍了他顺利获得私人利益，毁了“美国平台”也在所不惜。所以，从这个角度去观察，伊朗现阶段的战略危险性很高。

在我们看来，在沙特眼中，美国恐怕早已和英国一样，成为“破落户”般的存在。在沙特看来，以中国、东盟和海合会三方峰会为契机开展跨区域合作，甚至区域之间合作，才是沙特现在应该做的，且有长远前景的事情。尽管美帝现在还是蓝星上的“大流氓”，沙特也没有必要过度招惹，但恐怕对特朗普将第二任期首访放在沙特这枚“小小的胡萝卜”是看不上眼的。所以，特朗普也不要指望能够轻易让沙特去反对中国。否则，逼迫太甚是有可能挨“沙特王储的拖鞋板”的（注：惹烦了沙特，沙特王储恐怕又要脚穿拖鞋会见特朗普了）。

●再次提醒投资者，48小时内金融市场很可能再次遭遇情况变故

再次强调，目前特朗普政府最大的压力来源还是美国内部，尤其在政治恶斗外溢到金融市场之后，典型特征就是华尔街的深度分裂。具体表现之一就是特朗普与哈佛、耶鲁这些美国知名高校之间的“互怼”。特朗普政府和美国知名大学，耶鲁、哈佛之争，不仅意味着美国的内部恶斗从美国社会的深度分裂外溢到金融层面，也反映出华尔街内部的进一步分裂。

这种进一步分裂的核心原因就在于，特朗普政府上任已过三个月，但却在对内、对外政策上都交了“白卷儿”。尤其是“关税战”的惨败不仅没能做大“蛋糕”，反而让那些华尔街原本支持特朗普的资本势力大笔亏钱，这是他们所不能容忍的。更严重的问题在于，特朗普阵营内部的矛盾也因此不断激化和公开化。而在沙特看来，特朗普政府与哈佛、耶鲁这些名校之间的相互攻击差一点让美国爆发系统性金融危机，即便如此，特朗普为了利于内斗还要为以色列说话，沙特眼中的这些特朗普“首访秀”到底是什么成色，内心如何看待，大家不难想象。

在特朗普正式宣布将首访放在沙特后，尤其在巨大的内外压力之下，特朗普不得不再次就关税问题“自打耳光”后，鉴于特朗普表面上拿着的是“A方案”，实际上准备的是“B方案”，再次提醒投资者，目前股市受到美元的诱惑刚上去的人不要笑，尽管此前做空的人倒了霉，但做多的人也许话音未落，比如，48小时内金融市场很可能再次遭遇情况变故。那时美债收益率下来了，美元指数上去了，特朗普又有了“折腾”的新资本。

●无论从宗教层面，还是地缘政治层面，亦或是未来印度的发展前景方面，找沙特寻求事态缓和再合适不过

需要强调的是，尽管特朗普在关税问题上再次自己打脸，但这种妥协、让步并不意味着其就此彻底投降，其认怂不过是口头上的，他们还会继续搞事情，只是一方面借此机会先大赚一笔，另一方面借机喘口气，定定神。

我们注意到，4月22日，印控克什米尔地区发生恐怖袭击的新闻报道。袭击事件已造成至少26名游客死亡，另有多人受伤。

在我们的观察与评估中，这绝不是什么意外，偏偏是美国副总统万斯前脚刚到印度访问，非常敏感的克什米尔地区就后脚出了事情。这就是特朗普政府嘴巴上认怂，暗中却“小动作”不断的一个具体表现。

一方面，美国显然有意逼迫印度站队反华，比如，充当“反华关税同盟”的“标杆”。值得注意的是，4月21日，印度政府决定，自当日起200天内，将对进口的部分钢铁制品征收12%的临时关税，以保护本土的钢铁业，“抑制来自中国和其他地区的廉价进口钢铁激增”。显然，印度当局的这一做法类似越南，因受到美国的压力，开始在关税问题上试探中国。

综合传统安全层面，克什米尔方再度发生恐怖袭击事件，以及非传统安全层面印度当局在关税问题上试探中国一并观察，中国通过相关媒体公布“非核氢弹”（注：其最大特点是，威力直追战术核武器，但武器性质上却是常规武器）的消息，无论是从威慑的角度来看，还是从心理战的角度来看，都非常有必要。再加上“红旗19”，可谓攻守兼备，即便是针对美帝，也形成了强大军事威慑。

另一方面，看到沙特玩得如此风生水起，印度当局的内心恐怕也有所触动，把自己的未来寄托在中国身上，尤其涉及AI应用技术，比如，DeepSeek。所以，印度总理莫迪于4月22日抵达沙特阿拉伯吉达，某种意义上说，是以未来超级大国的心态访问的。

至于印度未来是否能够成为超级大国，我们并不确定，毕竟那是未来的事情。问题在于，眼下的麻烦如何解决？所谓眼下的麻烦指的当然是“万斯一到，克什米尔就出事”这一不利局面。这一问题涉及巴基斯坦，而沙特又是巴基斯坦的金主，以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家的背后又站着中国，无论从宗教层面，还是地缘政治层面，亦或是未来印度的发展前景方面，找沙特寻求事态缓和再合适不过了。

本质上说，尽管印度当局感受到了来自美国的压力，但其内心并不想充当“关税反华同盟”的“标杆”。印度也有“渔翁心态”，毕竟特朗普把中美关系搞砸了。再加上印度也很清楚，中国实力强悍，要文有文（注：把“关税战”始作俑者美帝树为“标杆”照样吊打，以此警告方方面面不得跟随美帝实质性损害中国核心利益），要武有武（注：“非核氢弹”“红旗-19”等），是不好惹的，惹烦了是不好办的。

●国际社会需要警惕一种可能情况，那就是伊朗当局选择进一步妥协和投降

说到特朗普的沙特之行，以及其为首访沙特准备的“A方案”与“B方案”，我们想要提醒伊朗当局的是：伊朗目前的状态仍然是在“拖”，但拖来拖去却等来了特朗普可能对伊朗发动军事打击，一方面，全面服务，甚至取悦于以色列以利内斗；另一方面，实在不行就彻底搞乱波斯湾，对内，对外玩“双向极限战略讹诈”的噩耗。这让伊朗承受的战略压力与日俱增。在我们看来，伊朗的选择无非两条路，要么比现在表现得更软弱，进一步向美国妥协、投降；要么奋起反击。

需要再次强调的是，一旦波斯湾被彻底搞乱，唯一能捞到好处的是俄罗斯，这恐怕也是前不久俄罗斯外交部副部长鲁坚科表示，美国可能发动的对伊朗的打击将给地区局势造成最严重后果。如果袭击发生，俄方没有义务向伊朗提供军事援助，但将采取一切措施调解冲突的重要原因之一。

所以，此时此刻，特朗普的乌克兰问题特使前往俄罗斯，表面看是谈乌克兰问题，实际谈的是中东问题，或者说“B方案”。核心内容就是：实在不行，我要动伊朗了，而波斯湾一乱我们两家都是“黄金万两”，这也不失为一种帮助俄罗斯有效重返中东的途径。当然，作为回报，俄罗斯也要帮助美国继续维持在中东的影响和存在。至少在特朗普政府全力搅乱波斯湾之际，俄罗斯要选择袖手旁观。

在我们观察与评估中，特朗普本次沙特之行很大可能上并不顺利，一种可能的后果就是：访问沙特没谈好，和俄罗斯就乌克兰问题（注：中东问题）没谈好，以色列和埃及、沙特等中东主要国家之间的关系持续紧张。

此时此刻，伊朗一定要注意了，特朗普这个时候，通过军事打击伊朗以安抚以色列的动机就会空前强烈。在特朗普看来，只要以色列不再那么闹腾，埃及和约旦也不会像之前那样神经紧张。

而对国际社会而言，则需要警惕一种可能的情况，那就是伊朗当局选择进一步妥协和投降，一方面，这意味着伊朗很可能会成为特朗普心之念之的“关税反华同盟”之“标杆”；另一方面，这意味着美国或就此获得波斯湾的控制权。而以上两点在俄罗斯眼中，并不与“阿富汗政策小九九”之“借西方之力遏制中国”的一面相违背。从这一点来看，中国选择在这样一个节骨眼儿与埃及举行联合军演，显然有拉高埃及、伊朗抗压能力的战略意图。

●随着时间的推移，“河渡人”局面的延续，中国的能力会越来越强，决心会越来越坚定

中国这样做是尽人事安天命，也许之后的局面最终还是会走到启动“最低经济内循环”和“落水捞人”的地步，只是时间上会相对更加靠后一点。而随着时间的推移，“河渡人”局面的延续，中国的能力会越来越强，决心会越来越坚定。

以日本为例，以前我们经常说，在美帝怂恿下日本极右政权执意排放核污染水一事，中国无法拦阻，但以后情况或将有所改观。

此前，日本再生经济相访问美国，会见美国总统特朗普后，特朗普便大肆炒作和日本达成某某重要协议的话题，意图通过逼迫日本开放粮食市场，大幅增加承担驻日美军军费，消除逆差等一系列苛刻条件将日本打造成“反华关税同盟”之“标杆”。讽刺的是，日方针对特朗普的刻意炒作选择在第一时间加以澄清。

显然，一方面，日本如同印度等国家一样，畏惧中国的强大，忌惮中日经济对日本经济未来前途的极端重要性而并不愿充当这个“反华急先锋”；另一方面，日本极右政府“最后一次战略投机”的小心思如影随形，通过日本当局领导人向靖国神社供奉祭品，大批国会议员和部分内阁副大臣前往参拜反向试探中国，讨价还价，试图向中国讨要好处。结果可想而知，一方面，遭到中国外交部、驻日大使馆的严词批驳；另一方面，中国军网于4月23日海军节之际，通过回顾2018年中国国家最高领导人登船来到刘公岛，登上东泓炮台遗址，参观甲午战争史实进行强烈警告。信号明确且强烈：一码事归一码事，美日如何互动是你们之间的事情，但日本胆敢实质性损害中国核心利益，加入什么“关税反华同盟”，中方绝不姑息，坚决报复。

●建议中国商务部，不妨就这一问题，围绕“特朗普政府终于在改正关税问题错误决策上迈出另‘一小步’”痛打落水狗！

在本次回顾的最后，与大家分享一篇文章。国内媒体采访希腊前财长亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯。就中美贸易战等热门话题发表讲话。由于篇幅有限，我们在这里只截取两段：

第一段：我要给中国朋友们的忠告是：切勿误判形势，认为当美国自身痛苦达到临界点时，特朗普政府就会退缩。只有当美国统治阶级承受的代价足够惨重时，政策才会转向。

第二段：中国已展现出成熟姿态，就像一群孩童中突然出现的成年人。

对此，我们想要着重说明的是：

第一，这篇文章内容丰富，鞭辟入里，建议大家阅读全文；

第二，希腊前财长瓦鲁法基斯非常睿智的从当前阶段，仍代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益（注：因美国内部恶斗不断已经一定程度分裂），也就是所谓“美国统治阶级”角度观察中美贸易战问题。

在我们的观察与评估中，所谓“沉重代价”已现苗头，那就是围绕中美关税战，美国内部恶斗，逐步呈现出的美国金融市场稳定问题。当然，在美国金融市场上蹿下跳的过程中，相关方面承受的还只是一些小损失，尤其是“拜登们”，可谓“杀敌800自损1000”，但显然还在可承受范围之内。

需要强调的是，基于上文中我们分析判断，特朗普这次于关税问题上再次认怂打脸仅在口头上，还会搞事情，只是借机喘口气。我们建议中国商务部，不妨就这一问题，围绕“特朗普政府终于在改正关税问题错误决策上迈出另‘一小步’”痛打落水狗！基于舆论战、心理战，再次向方方面面揭露特朗普“第二次眨眼睛”的客观事实。这是对美帝霸权不断虚弱的绝好营销机会，就连英国、加拿大和日本这几个美国原本最紧密的“马仔”都和美国纷纷保持距离。

相比之下，中国显然在某势。其中一个具体表现就是希腊前财长所说的“中国展现出成熟的一面，如同孩子群中站出来的一个大人”。以澳大利亚为例，亏了中国在第一时间，第一个站出来对美国进行全面且犀利反击，其才有机会抢回本来属于自己的农产品等在华市场份额。除非美国给出足够优越的条件，否则，让澳大利亚再次反华，门儿都没有。问题在于，美国根本拿不出这个足够优越条件。

最后需要补充的是，沙特毕竟不能只卖油，未来能源有光伏，氢能，风能，钍堆，可控核聚变，还有输变电技术。把未来寄托给中国已经成为沙特的国策。沙特这个国家历史上非常善于抓时机，与时俱进，沙特当年就是这样抓住美国崛起的机会成功实现建国。而今天，曾经的美国已经变为中国，于是也就有了“五月会议”。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Wednesday, April 23, 2025, Issue No. 1232

The great significance of China's first - time, prompt and sharp counter - attack against the United States has been perfectly verified by Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister

[Media Coverage]

On April 23, Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, gave an interview to the media. Varoufakis believes that China has demonstrated a mature stance, like an adult suddenly emerging among a group of children. China has always maintained strategic composure and insisted on the principle of reciprocity. Varoufakis said that the advice he wants to give to Chinese friends is: Don't misjudge the situation and think that the Trump administration will back down when the pain of the United States itself reaches a critical point. Only when the price borne by the American ruling class is heavy enough will the policy change - this is the ultimate criterion for determining the development of the situation.

【Discussion Summary】

● Starting Point for Judging the Possibility that "If the Trump Administration Fails to Handle Sino - US Relations Properly, It May Have to Make Its First Visit to Saudi Arabia and Even Consider an Early Visit"

On April 22, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean - Pierre announced at a White House press conference that US President Donald Trump would visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates from May 13 to 16. Jean - Pierre stated that the purpose of this visit was to strengthen relations with Middle Eastern countries, saying, "He (Trump) will hold multiple bilateral talks. We look forward to this visit."

We previously mentioned the topic of Trump's possible visit to Saudi Arabia on March 31. At that time, our preliminary assessment was that the possibility of Trump's "May visit to Saudi Arabia" being advanced could not be ruled out. The starting point of this preliminary assessment was the Trump administration's ineffective handling of Sino - US relations. In terms of Middle East policy, Trump also had to deal with the "trap" set by former US President Joe Biden - the potential further turmoil in Syria (the subsequent development of the Syrian situation after the overthrow of the Assad regime). Due to the Trump administration's failure to handle Sino - US relations effectively, it had to turn to improving US - Russia relations. This doomed the Trump administration to a poor start, losing right from the beginning. That is to say, based on the principle that effectively handling Sino - US relations is a "must" for the Trump administration to "properly manage the 'three major foreign relations' (Sino - US relations, US - Russia relations, and US - European Union relations)" and win the internal power struggle, good US - Russia relations would be of no use.

In addition, the importance of effectively handling Sino - US relations is also reflected in China's special influence in the Middle East. The so - called "special influence" means that taking the subsequent development of the Syrian situation as an example, although China did not directly participate in it, there were Chinese elements everywhere. Especially in the Gulf Arab countries, represented by Saudi Arabia, it can be said that behind them stands China. Therefore, when it comes to Sino - US relations, it not only includes the traditional aspects of Sino - US political, economic, and military relations but also how the United States deals with China's special influence in the Middle East. In other words, the Sino - US relations that the Trump administration has to face today are much more "complex" than before. In a sense, Trump needs China's help on issues such as the trade war, financial stability, and the Ukrainian issue, and now there is an additional Middle East problem.

It is worth mentioning that the Trump administration also faces an obstacle in handling the Middle East issue, which is the Netanyahu government in Israel. The Netanyahu clique, taking advantage of the Trump administration's increasingly severe internal power struggle, has become more reliant on the part of the US capital forces that support Israel. They are seizing this once - in - a - lifetime opportunity to demand that the Trump administration help them achieve the "Greater Israel dream" to avoid harsh political retribution and ensure the long - term stability of their regime. Faced with such a complex Middle East situation, it is extremely difficult for the Trump administration to handle it. It can be said that "only gods can do it". But being forced to do so, Trump is now trying to stabilize the Middle East in his own way, such as making Saudi Arabia the destination of his first visit during his second term to show his importance to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries. This is the starting point for our judgment that if the Trump administration fails to handle Sino - US relations properly, it may have to make its first visit to Saudi Arabia and even consider an early visit.

The current situation is that since taking office a hundred days ago, the Trump administration has handed in a "blank sheet" in handling the three major foreign relations. Sino - US relations have continued to deteriorate, US - European Union relations have become increasingly distant, and as for US - Russia relations, it is not difficult to imagine that there have also been no results. We noticed that on April 22, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that "the Russian side is not familiar with the content of the Ukrainian peace plan proposed by US President Donald Trump". In our view, it is probably not that the Russian side is unaware but that there are too many differences between the United States and Russia on the specific content of the so - called "Ukrainian peace plan", or simply put, there is hardly any generally agreed - upon plan between the two sides on the Ukrainian issue.

The fact that the Trump administration has not been able to properly handle the three major foreign relations obviously does not help it stabilize the Middle East situation. One of the important topics of Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia is how to balance the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel. So, at least on the surface, Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia is to "offer benefits" rather than "ask for benefits". Otherwise, Saudi Arabia may not pay attention to him. Because Saudi Arabia is currently very busy with important matters.

One of the so - called "important matters" is that in February this year, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that a trilateral summit among China, ASEAN, and the Gulf Cooperation Council would be held in May 2025.

If we connect China, ASEAN, and the Middle East in a line, it is not difficult to see that this path is a typical "Belt and Road Initiative". And whether it is the overland Silk Road or the maritime Silk Road, the source is in China.

● Yesterday's Assessment of the Trump Administration's "Tariff War" Policy Has Been Perfectly Verified. Under Great Internal and External Pressures, Trump Had to "Slap Himself in the Face" Again

In the past 100 days, the foreign policy of the Trump administration has been a complete failure, with no bright spots at all. In contrast, internal strife in the United States has been intensifying day by day, especially spilling over into the financial sector. In our previous review, we once again mentioned that the US financial market witnessed a rare triple - whammy in the stock, foreign exchange, and bond markets, which put tremendous pressure on the Trump administration.

Data shows that as of April 22, the US dollar index has fallen by more than 9% year - to - date. In just a few weeks since April, the decline has exceeded 5.5%. On April 21, the US dollar index successively broke through the 99 and 98 marks during the trading session, dipping to a minimum of 97.9137, the lowest level since April 2022. As of 18:00 on April 22, the US dollar index fluctuated between 98.0083 and 98.5642.

The US dollar index has fallen so rapidly, even faster than we expected. This means that there has been a large - scale sell - off of dollar - denominated assets in the market, including but not limited to US Treasury bonds, US stocks, and other virtual products. In short, any assets priced in US dollars seem to have been sold off. People on the street are widely discussing whether the United States is brewing a "second sub - prime mortgage crisis".

It is under such great internal and external pressures that we observed a significant piece of news with a waiting - game nature.

On April 23, local time on April 22, US President Donald Trump said that he would "significantly reduce" the high tariffs on China. According to US media reports, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, "145% is extremely high. It won't be that high... It will be significantly reduced, but not to zero. We will be very friendly. They (China) will be friendly too. Let's see what will happen." In addition, according to British media reports, Trump's remarks were a response to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's earlier statement on April 22. Yellen had said that high tariffs are unsustainable, and she expected the "trade war" between the "world's two largest economies" to ease.

Before delving into the specific discussion, let's look at a piece of content from yesterday's review:

......

So, how long can Trump's tariff policy hold up? I'm afraid even Trump himself has no idea in his heart. Perhaps the authorities in Japan and South Korea also think so. They might as well deal with the Trump administration in a perfunctory way, stalling for time day by day, even though the South Korean acting president is sweet - talking.

We are also not sure how long Trump can hold on. Maybe when we wake up tomorrow morning, he will "surrender". Of course, for Trump himself, it doesn't matter. It's just that his face will be swollen again. Even so, thinking that although his face is swollen, he can turn around and make 10 billion, 20 billion, 30 billion or even 50 billion US dollars, perhaps Trump is overjoyed in his heart. Maybe Trump has already informed his children in advance: Get ready to "surrender" tomorrow and start bottom - fishing immediately!

Finally, we once again remind investors not to be overly blind when investing in either gold or other US - dollar - denominated assets. Otherwise, you may be dumbfounded when you wake up tomorrow morning! Either the US dollar will soar or gold will plunge. Anything is possible! This is what we call extreme unpredictability, or rather, unpredictable in principle. Take gold as an example. Maybe by then, it will fall so fast that you won't even have time to shout. Even if you set a stop - loss (Note: Technically setting a stop - loss position. A typical event is the "Oil Treasure incident"), it will be too late for stop - loss. So, in extraordinary times, staying away from the market is the best choice.

......

Combining the above review and the above news report, yesterday's assessment of the Trump administration's "tariff war" policy has been perfectly verified. Under great internal and external pressures, Trump had to "slap himself in the face" again.

Interestingly, after making the above statement, the US stock market immediately soared, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1,000 points. The US stock index rebounded from the 98 level to above 99, and US Treasury bond yields declined (Note: Prices rose). The wave of dollar - asset sell - offs was alleviated. The characteristic of Trump having a strong financial function, which we have mentioned many times, came into play again - Trump still has a way to stabilize the situation. Of course, the prerequisite is to give himself a hard slap in the face.

From this, it is also easier for everyone to more clearly recognize what kind of people Trump or "Trumps" are - they never miss any opportunity to make money, even if it means repeatedly slapping themselves in the face. Even if internal strife intensifies day by day, they don't care. They don't care about the well - being of the American people, the national interests of the United States, US foreign relations, or the ever - changing international situation. What they first want to ensure is how to avoid being cruelly politically purged four years later, and secondly, how they and their small interest groups, including their families and children, can enjoy wealth and luxury forever.

·Trump's "Plan A" and "Plan B" for His First Visit to Saudi Arabia in His Second Term

In the roller - coaster of the US financial market, Trump has made money, but this is only a prerequisite. Saving his own life is essential. The former is a sufficient condition, while the latter is a necessary condition. Otherwise, he would end up being in a situation where he has the money but no chance to spend it. This is Trump's core idea and the sole purpose of his existence. Everything else is just a means.

How to save his life? He needs to win the internal power struggle. And how to win it? By properly handling most of the three major foreign relations, with effectively managing Sino - US relations being a "must". This brings our discussion back to the topic of Trump's first visit to Saudi Arabia in his second term.

The United States has always adopted the "carrot and stick" approach in its dealings with other countries. Trump's decision to make Saudi Arabia the destination of his first visit in his second term is the "carrot" he offers to Saudi Arabia in his eyes. This also includes the previous hints about the US troop withdrawal from Syria. Of course, by making such a high - profile announcement about his first visit to Saudi Arabia, at least on the surface, Trump aims to stabilize the Middle East, which is the top priority in the US global strategy. But this may not be the essence of the matter.

In our view, on the surface, Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia is to balance the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But in essence, it may be to better serve or even please Netanyahu's clique, so as to win the support of the part of the US capital forces that support Israel to the greatest extent. Given that the Trump administration's diplomacy has been a complete failure within a hundred days of taking office, getting the support of these capital forces is particularly important for Trump to gain the initiative in the internal power struggle. At this point, this "stick", which is embedded with the idea of better serving or pleasing Netanyahu's clique for the sake of the internal power struggle, is almost ready. In Trump's view, if the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia "refuse the wine and choose the punishment", continuing to allow Israel to run amok in the Middle East becomes a ready - made extortion tool. If the extortion is successful, it will be a "huge profit" in multiple ways: first, serving and pleasing Netanyahu's clique for the internal power struggle; second, stabilizing the Middle East to a certain extent; third, being helpful for handling most of the three major foreign relations, especially Sino - US relations, which is a "must".

If we regard Trump's attempt to stabilize the Middle East by improving relations with the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia and find an entry point for effectively handling Sino - US relations as "Plan A", then the corresponding approach of better serving or pleasing Netanyahu's clique for external extortion and internal power - struggle gain is "Plan B". Among them, "Plan A" is secondary, while "Plan B" is primary. It can be said that Trump is publicly holding "Plan A", but actually preparing "Plan B" and then using "Plan B" to promote "Plan A".

It is worth mentioning that the targets of extortion in "Plan B" are not only Saudi Arabia but also Trump's domestic opponents and the international community outside the US. This naturally includes military strikes on Iran (for example, destroying Iran's nuclear facilities to completely deprive it of the ability to develop nuclear weapons) and completely disrupting the Persian Gulf. This is also why we believe that Iran is under great strategic pressure recently.

The question is whether Trump's extortion will succeed, how Saudi Arabia will respond, how Iran will react, and how China and the EU will deal with it, as well as how Russia will be affected?

This extortion has a very wide scope. On the surface, it is based on traditional security - related content, but it also contains elements related to non - traditional security. In our view, when Trump boasted that he stopped Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities in May, he was actually pointing directly or indirectly at the security and stability of the Persian Gulf. If the Trump administration finally dares not take any action in the Western Pacific direction and uses this kind of "showdown - style" extortion to threaten China (Note: If there is a reversal in the control of the Western Pacific between China and the US, Guam can be traded. When the US can't hold on in the Western Pacific, Guam will become a burden for the US).

In addition, it is worth noting that Trump's attempt is essentially based on an extremely selfish idea of "If I'm not happy, no one else should be". He is extorting the whole world, including the part of the US capital interests that still represent Western capital interests within the US and even the entire Western capital interests. In Trump's view, if the existence of the "US platform" hinders his smooth acquisition of private interests, he is willing to destroy the "US platform". So, from this perspective, Iran is currently facing high strategic risks.

In our view, in Saudi Arabia's eyes, the United States may have already become like the United Kingdom, a "declining power". Saudi Arabia believes that taking the opportunity of the trilateral summit among China, ASEAN, and the Gulf Cooperation Council to carry out cross - regional cooperation, or even inter - regional cooperation, is what it should do now and has long - term prospects. Although the United States is still a "big bully" on the blue planet, Saudi Arabia doesn't need to overly provoke it. However, Saudi Arabia may look down on Trump's move of making Saudi Arabia the destination of his first visit in his second term as a "small carrot". So, Trump should not expect to easily make Saudi Arabia oppose China. Otherwise, if he pushes too hard, he may get a "slap with the slipper" from the Saudi Crown Prince (Note: If Saudi Arabia is annoyed, the Saudi Crown Prince may meet Trump in slippers again).

·Reminder to Investors: Financial Markets May Face Another Turn of Events within 48 Hours

Once again, it should be emphasized that the biggest source of pressure for the Trump administration currently still comes from within the United States. Especially after the domestic political strife spilled over into the financial market, a typical manifestation is the deep division on Wall Street. One specific example is the "tit - for - tat" between Trump and well - known US universities such as Harvard and Yale. The dispute between the Trump administration and well - known American universities like Yale and Harvard not only means that the internal strife in the United States has spilled over from the deep - seated social divisions to the financial level but also reflects the further division within Wall Street.

The core reason for this further division is that more than three months have passed since the Trump administration took office, but it has turned in a "blank sheet" in both domestic and foreign policies. In particular, the disastrous outcome of the "tariff war" not only failed to expand the "pie" but also caused significant losses to those Wall Street capital forces that originally supported Trump, which they simply cannot tolerate. A more serious problem is that the contradictions within the Trump camp have also been continuously intensified and exposed as a result. In Saudi Arabia's view, the mutual attacks between the Trump administration and well - known universities like Harvard and Yale almost triggered a systemic financial crisis in the United States. Even so, Trump still speaks up for Israel for the sake of his internal power struggle. It is not difficult to imagine what Saudi Arabia really thinks about the quality and nature of Trump's "first - visit show".

After Trump officially announced that his first visit would be to Saudi Arabia, especially under the huge internal and external pressures, and after Trump had to "slap himself in the face" again on the tariff issue, considering that Trump is publicly presenting "Plan A" but actually preparing "Plan B", we once again remind investors that those who have just entered the stock market lured by the dollar should not be too complacent. Although those who had previously shorted the market have suffered losses, those who went long may also face unexpected situations. For example, within 48 hours, financial markets may encounter another turn of events. By then, US Treasury bond yields may decline while the US dollar index rises, giving Trump new capital for his "maneuvers".

·Whether from a religious, geopolitical perspective, or in terms of India's future development prospects, seeking Saudi Arabia to ease the situation is the most appropriate choice

It should be emphasized that although Trump has once again backed down on the tariff issue, this kind of compromise and concession does not mean that he has completely surrendered. His so - called "capitulation" is only verbal. They will continue to stir up trouble. On the one hand, they take this opportunity to make a big profit first, and on the other hand, they use it as a chance to catch their breath and regain their composure.

We have noticed the news report of a terrorist attack in Indian - controlled Kashmir on April 22. The attack has killed at least 26 tourists and injured many others.

In our observation and assessment, this is by no means an accident. Coincidentally, right after US Vice President Vance visited India, a very sensitive incident occurred in the Kashmir region. This is a concrete manifestation of the Trump administration's verbal capitulation but continuous "underhand moves" in secret.

On the one hand, the United States obviously intends to force India to take a stand against China, for example, to act as the "benchmark" of the "anti - China tariff alliance". It is worth noting that on April 21, the Indian government decided that starting from that day, within 200 days, it would impose a temporary tariff of 12% on some imported steel products to protect the domestic steel industry and "curb the surge of cheap imported steel from China and other regions". Obviously, the Indian authorities' move is similar to that of Vietnam. Under US pressure, Vietnam has begun to test China on the tariff issue.

Comprehensively observing the re - occurrence of a terrorist attack in Kashmir from the traditional security level and India's tariff - probing move against China on the non - traditional security level, it is very necessary for China to announce the news of the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" (Note: Its most prominent feature is that its power is comparable to that of tactical nuclear weapons, but in terms of weapon nature, it is a conventional weapon) through relevant media. Whether from the perspective of deterrence or psychological warfare, it is essential. Coupled with the "Red Flag 19", it can be regarded as having both offensive and defensive capabilities, even forming a strong military deterrence against the United States.

On the other hand, seeing Saudi Arabia doing so well, the Indian authorities may also be touched in their hearts. They may place their future on China, especially in terms of AI application technology, such as DeepSeek. So, Indian Prime Minister Modi's arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on April 22 can be said to be a visit with the mentality of a future superpower.

As for whether India can become a superpower in the future, we are not sure because that is a matter for the future. The question is how to solve the current problems. The so - called current problems refer to the unfavorable situation of "an incident in Kashmir as soon as Vance arrives". This issue involves Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia is the financial backer of Pakistan. Behind the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia stands China. Whether from a religious, geopolitical perspective, or in terms of India's future development prospects, seeking Saudi Arabia to ease the situation is the most appropriate choice.

Essentially, although the Indian authorities feel the pressure from the United States, they do not really want to act as the "benchmark" of the "anti - China tariff alliance". India also has a "bystander mentality". After all, Trump has messed up Sino - US relations. Moreover, India is also very clear that China is powerful. It has intellectual resources (Note: Even the United States, the initiator of the "tariff war", can be easily defeated as a "benchmark", warning all parties not to substantially damage China's core interests following the United States), and military strength (Note: Weapons such as the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" and "Red Flag - 19"), and is not to be provoked. If provoked, it will be difficult to deal with.

·The International Community Needs to Be Vigilant Against a Possible Situation: Further Compromise and Surrender by the Iranian Authorities

When it comes to Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and the "Plan A" and "Plan B" he prepared for this first - visit, we would like to remind the Iranian authorities that currently, Iran is still in a state of "delaying". However, after all this delay, there is a possibility that Trump may launch a military strike on Iran. On the one hand, this is to fully serve and even please Israel to gain an advantage in the internal power struggle; on the other hand, if necessary, to completely disrupt the Persian Gulf and engage in "two - way extreme strategic extortion" both internally and externally. This has been causing Iran's strategic pressure to increase day by day.

In our view, Iran has only two options: either show even greater weakness and further compromise or surrender to the United States, or rise up to fight back.

It needs to be emphasized once again that once the Persian Gulf is completely thrown into chaos, the only beneficiary will be Russia. This is probably one of the important reasons why Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko said not long ago that a possible US strike on Iran would cause the most serious consequences to the regional situation. If the attack occurs, Russia has no obligation to provide military assistance to Iran, but will take all measures to mediate the conflict.

So, at this moment, Trump's special envoy for the Ukrainian issue is visiting Russia. On the surface, it is to discuss the Ukrainian issue, but in fact, it is about the Middle East issue, or rather, "Plan B". The core content is: if necessary, I will strike Iran, and once the Persian Gulf is in chaos, both of our countries will gain a great deal. This can also be regarded as a way to help Russia effectively return to the Middle East. Of course, in return, Russia also needs to help the United States maintain its influence and presence in the Middle East. At least when the Trump administration is fully focused on disrupting the Persian Gulf, Russia should choose to stand by.

In our observation and assessment, it is very likely that Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia will not go smoothly. One possible consequence is that the visit to Saudi Arabia does not yield good results, the talks with Russia on the Ukrainian issue (Note: actually the Middle East issue, or "Plan B") do not go well, and the relationships between Israel and major Middle - Eastern countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia remain tense.

At this moment, Iran must be on high alert. At this time, Trump's motivation to use military strikes against Iran to appease Israel will be unprecedentedly strong. In Trump's view, as long as Israel stops causing so much trouble, Egypt and Jordan will no longer be as nervous as before.

For the international community, it needs to be vigilant against a possible situation where the Iranian authorities choose to further compromise and surrender. On the one hand, this means that Iran is likely to become the "benchmark" of the "anti - China tariff alliance" that Trump has been longing for; on the other hand, it means that the United States may gain control of the Persian Gulf. And neither of the above two points contradicts the "hidden agenda" in Russia's Afghanistan policy of "using Western power to contain China". From this perspective, China's choice to conduct joint military exercises with Egypt at such a critical moment obviously has the strategic intention of enhancing the pressure - resistance capabilities of Egypt and Iran.

·As Time Goes By, the "Crossing the River by Letting People Cross" Situation Will Continue, and China's Capabilities Will Grow Stronger and Its Determination Will Become Firmer

China is doing its best and leaving the rest to fate. Perhaps eventually, the situation will still progress to the point of initiating the "minimum economic internal circulation" and "rescuing those in trouble". However, this will happen at a relatively later time. As time goes on and the "crossing the river by letting people cross" situation continues, China's capabilities will become increasingly stronger, and its determination will become more and more resolute.

Take Japan as an example. Previously, we often said that regarding the issue of the extremely right - wing Japanese government, under the instigation of the United States, insisting on discharging nuclear - contaminated water, China was unable to stop it. But the situation may change in the future.

Previously, after Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization visited the United States and met with US President Donald Trump, Trump vigorously hyped the topic of reaching some important agreement with Japan. His intention was to force Japan to open up its food market, significantly increase the burden of hosting US troops in Japan, eliminate the trade deficit, and a series of harsh conditions to turn Japan into the "benchmark" of the "anti - China tariff alliance". Ironically, the Japanese side chose to clarify immediately in the first place against Trump's deliberate hype.

Obviously, on the one hand, like India and other countries, Japan fears China's strength and is wary of the extreme importance of Sino - Japanese economic relations to Japan's future economic prospects, so it is reluctant to act as this "vanguard of anti - China". On the other hand, the extremely right - wing Japanese government's ulterior motive of "a last - ditch strategic speculation" is always present. By having Japanese leaders offer sacrifices to the Yasukuni Shrine and a large number of members of parliament and some deputy ministers of the cabinet visiting and paying homage, Japan is trying to probe China in the opposite direction and bargain, attempting to ask for benefits from China. As a result, it is predictable. On the one hand, it has been strongly criticized by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in Japan; on the other hand, on the occasion of the Navy Day on April 23, the Chinese Military Network, by reviewing the event in 2018 when the top leader of the Chinese nation boarded the ship to Liu Gong Island, climbed onto the Donghong Battery Site, and visited the historical facts of the First Sino - Japanese War, issued a strong warning. The signal is clear and strong: One thing has nothing to do with another. How the United States and Japan interact is their own business, but if Japan dares to substantially damage China's core interests and join any "anti - China tariff alliance", China will not tolerate it and will surely retaliate.

·It is Suggested that the Ministry of Commerce of China Should Seize the Opportunity to Criticize the Trump Administration on the Tariff Issue

At the end of this review, we would like to share an article with you. A domestic media outlet interviewed Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, who shared his views on hot topics such as the Sino - US trade war. Due to space limitations, we will only excerpt two paragraphs here:

Paragraph 1: The advice I want to give to Chinese friends is: Don't misjudge the situation and think that the Trump administration will back down when the pain of the United States itself reaches a critical point. Only when the price borne by the American ruling class is heavy enough will the policy change.

Paragraph 2: China has shown a mature stance, like an adult suddenly emerging among a group of children.

Regarding this, we would like to make the following points clear:

First, this article is rich in content and incisive. It is recommended that everyone read the full text.

Second, Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, very wisely observed the Sino - US trade war issue from the perspective of the current US capital interests that still represent Western capital interests (Note: Due to the continuous internal strife in the United States, there has been a certain degree of division), that is, the so - called "American ruling class".

In our observation and assessment, the so - called "heavy price" has begun to show signs. That is, regarding the Sino - US tariff war, the internal strife in the United States has gradually led to problems in the stability of the US financial market. Of course, during the ups and downs of the US financial market, the relevant parties have only suffered some small losses so far. Especially for the "Biden administration", it can be described as "killing 800 enemies but losing 1,000 of its own". But obviously, these losses are still within the tolerable range.

It should be emphasized that, based on the analysis and judgment in the above text, Trump's latest "back - down" on the tariff issue is only verbal. He will still stir up trouble but is just taking this opportunity to catch his breath. We suggest that the Ministry of Commerce of China should seize this issue and, around the statement of "the Trump administration has finally taken another 'small step' in correcting its wrong decision on the tariff issue", go all out to criticize it. Based on public opinion and psychological warfare, we should once again expose the objective fact of Trump's "second blink" to all parties. This is an excellent marketing opportunity to show the continuous weakening of US hegemony. Even the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan, which were originally the United States' closest "minions", have kept their distance from the United States.

In contrast, China is clearly in a favorable position. One specific manifestation is what Yanis Varoufakis said, "China has shown a mature side, like an adult suddenly standing out among a group of children". Take Australia as an example. Thanks to China's first - time and most forceful counter - attack against the United States, Australia has had the opportunity to regain its market share in agricultural products and other products in the Chinese market that originally belonged to it. Unless the United States offers extremely favorable conditions, it is impossible for Australia to turn against China again. The problem is that the United States simply cannot offer such favorable conditions.

Finally, it should be added that Saudi Arabia cannot rely solely on oil in the future. There are various energy sources in the future, such as photovoltaic power, hydrogen energy, wind energy, thorium reactors, controllable nuclear fusion, and power transmission and transformation technologies. Entrusting its future to China has become Saudi Arabia's national policy. Saudi Arabia has always been very good at seizing opportunities and keeping up with the times. It was by seizing the opportunity of the United States' rise that Saudi Arabia successfully achieved its national independence in the past. And today, the former United States has become China, which is why there is the "May meeting".

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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