2025年4月25日，星期五，第1234期

结合国民党反动派撕毁双十协议，发动内战，国共最后一次和谈及百万雄师过大江之历史，敦促特朗普政府撤销一切对华单边关税，否则，悔之晚矣

【媒体报道】

4月24日，美前常务副国务卿库尔特·坎贝尔现身中国香港，参加了一场由香港美国商会主办的研讨会活动。发言期间，谈及近期不断升级的贸易紧张局势时，他批评特朗普政府误判了中国的实力，并呼吁美方此时应当对中方开放沟通渠道。

【讨论纪要】

●在这种内外压力的综合作用下，特朗普不得不选择“策略性的后撤”，正所谓，有一种胜利叫撤退

在正式展开本期讨论之前，就美国总统特朗普这个人给大家补充一些内容。

这几天我们讨论了美国总统特朗普在对华关税战问题上，也就是基于非传统安全层面表现出一种认怂的姿态。再次强调，这并不意味着特朗普就此彻底投降。

所谓“球”，以这一回合中美博弈为例，特朗普利用摆出的这种后撤、认怂的姿态，企图诱骗中国予以积极响应。而一旦中国接“球”，特朗普就可以立刻反口证明“的确是中国有求于美国，而非反之”来摆脱被动，并给中国挖坑、设局。无奈，通过中国外交部（注：直接打脸特朗普，称“中美就关税问题正在谈判”是假新闻）、商务部（注：美方应彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施）的相关回应观察，中方压根儿就不接这个“球”。

特朗普的一系列言行与他的人生经历有关，虽历过很多次破产，但总能咸鱼翻身。如果用褒义词形容特朗普这个人，他是一个有意志力的人，生存欲望极强。如果用贬义词形容特朗普这个人，他是一个非常顽固的人，而且是一个没有底线且为达目的不择手段，并不容易真正令其认怂、妥协（注：类似此前美芝加哥大学某教授通过所谓“不要低估美国的残暴”讹诈国际社会）。所以，特朗普摆出认怂姿态更多是权宜之计，因为内外部对其产生的压力太大了。

对内，压力不仅来自“拜登们”对他的“撕咬”日甚一日，也来自“特朗普阵营”内部矛盾分歧的公开化、尖锐化。此外，民生情况恶化导致的支持率下降也让他感到焦虑。尤其是金融市场表现出的预期掌控能力下降和不确定性增加导致的动荡让其压力最大，比如，美元指数超出预期的快速下跌；对外，压力的根源来自至今未能有效处理好中美关系。正是在这种内外压力的综合作用下，特朗普不得不选择“策略性的后撤”，正所谓，有一种胜利叫撤退。

所谓“策略性的后撤”的一个具体表现就是，其虽然在非传统安全层面暂时偃旗息鼓，表现出一种后退、认怂的姿态，但在传统安全层面再次小动作不断。在相对远离中国的中东方向，伊朗的战略处境不断恶化，波斯湾的安全稳定问题不断凸显；在中国周边地区，南亚方向、南海方向风高浪急。特朗普正将此前基于非传统安全层面的“摊牌式极限战略讹诈”外溢向传统安全层面。而外溢至传统安全层面的讹诈又内嵌了针对非传统安全层面的威胁。

以南海方向为例，据相关媒体报道，4月中旬，中国海警在南海铁线礁实施海上管控，行使主权管辖权。中国海警执法员登上铁线礁进行巡查，并对菲方非法活动的相关情况进行视频取证。此外，中国海警执法员还在铁线礁展示五星红旗宣示主权，并清理铁线礁上残留的塑料瓶、木棍和其他碎片垃圾。

在我们看来，中方的相关反应，首先，是针对菲律宾小马科斯政府的公开且强烈警告，中国人民不怕死，不信鬼、不信邪；其次，是针对小马科斯政府背后扇阴风、点暗火的美国特朗普政府，如果一定要玩，我们就玩大的，问题是，美国今天有资格，有胆量在南海问题上玩大的吗？

●现实情况是，美国对中国发动关税战后，中国不仅毫不退让，针锋相对，而且反向对美国层层加码

在继续展开讨论前，我们来看一则新闻报道。

4月24日，美国前常务副国务卿库尔特·坎贝尔现身中国香港，参加了一场由香港美国商会主办的研讨会活动。发言期间，谈及近期不断升级的贸易紧张局势时，他批评特朗普政府误判了中国的实力，并呼吁美方此时应当对中方开放沟通渠道。

美国前常务副国务卿坎贝尔的言论出现在中国就关税问题，第一时间，第一个站出对美国发动全面反击之后，核心内容有两条，第一，坎贝尔认为特朗普误判中国实力；第二，中国未来几十年都将是硬核玩家。

坎贝尔的言论让我们想起了美国国务卿卢比奥曾说过的一段话，卢比奥认为，美国对中国“上瘾”，中国对美国的经济有很大制约，对美国的社会有很大影响，那些出卖美国利益的美国企业，更在华盛顿拥有一支免费的游说大军。这些免费游说大军都不是中国花钱雇的，而是在和中国合作中能获得巨大好处，他们都心甘情愿地去替中国说话。

也许在卢比奥眼中，坎贝尔就是这支“免费游说大军”中的一员。这又让我们观察到美国内部的确存在着酝酿“土木堡之变”的丰厚土壤。

还有一个例子就是马斯克，除了股票大幅缩水外，中国近期收紧对“三稀金属”制成品的出口限制也让其痛不欲生，特斯拉、机器人、星链、星舰，亦或是“X帝国”都离不开中国的“三稀金属”制成品。再次强调，马斯克不是一个普通的商人，或资本家，什么“移民火星，守卫人类”都是鬼话。他是美帝国主义的一分子，以星链为例，打着民用的幌子，实际上首先应用的领域是军事，这一点已经得到2022年2月24日爆发持续至今的俄乌战争的验证。

此前马斯克和纳瓦罗之间，以及此后的马斯克和贝森特之间的激烈争执是特朗普阵营内部矛盾公开化、尖锐化的具体表现。争执的焦点问题之一就是美国对华关税政策。马斯克是一个集产业资本和金融资本于一身的“特殊人物”，深知产业资本和金融资本之间的关系，更知晓美国对华关税战的坏处。在马斯克看来，纳瓦罗之流是站着说话不腰疼，现在，三稀金属制成品管制越来越严格，以后的AI、机器人怎么玩？新军工复合体怎么搞？现实情况是，美国对中国发动关税战后，中国不仅毫不退让，针锋相对，而且反向对美国层层加码。而搞笑的是，始作俑者美国，却没有太好的反击手段。套用特朗普在乌克兰问题上曾嘲笑泽连斯基的那句话就是：美国对中国已无牌可打（注：4月26日，特朗普再次强调，泽连斯基已“无牌可打”，敦促乌克兰尽快达成协议，并威胁称：“乌克兰的处境岌岌可危——他可以选择和平，或者再战三年，直到失去整个国家。”）。

所谓“中国不仅毫不退让，针锋相对，而且反向对美国加码”指的是：第一，美国妄图通过关税战打击中国的制造业，作为反击手段，中国也瞄着美国本就萎缩严重且硕果仅存的制造业，比如，大飞机（波音）、芯片（英特尔、英伟达等）以及军工复合体（洛马、雷神，包括马斯克在内）；第二，在“第一”的基础上，搂草打兔子，顺带打击美国的金融维稳。相比之下，中国的金融比美国要稳健的多得多；第三，在“第一”“第二”的基础上，加剧美国内部，仍代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部，乃至整个西方阵营内部的分裂和矛盾对立。

●前美国常务副国务卿坎贝尔亲口证明，我们就中国如何应对美国关税战及重大意义之相关评估是正确的

也许大家只注意到了美国电商巨头亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西警告中国供应链对美国消费市场的渗透已深入骨髓，这场看似强硬的贸易战，实则正在演变成美国企业与消费者的集体“割肉”，以及当地时间4月22日，美国总统特朗普谈及对华关税问题时称，各种因素导致（对华关税）累加到了145%，它不应该这么高。对中国商品征收的高关税将“大幅下降”，但不会为零。

值得一提的是，在特朗普在对华关税问题上表态认怂、退让之前，美财长贝森特在华盛顿由摩根大通组织的一场闭门投资者会议上早已提前支会：中美之间目前的关税僵局不可能长期持续下去，作为全球最大的两个经济体，双方必须找到缓解紧张局势的办法。他指出，这种缓和“将在不久的将来”发生。

结果就是当日道指大涨5%（注：我们经常提到道指，虽然目前美股代表不是道指而是标普，但是我们基于习惯还是以道指说明问题）。也就是说，在特朗普就对华关税战问题表态认怂、退让之前，华尔街的金融资本家们早已建仓完成——这就是典型的“内幕操作”“内幕交易”。讽刺的是，目前没有人追究这件事情，因为华尔街有一些人获利了，他们是特朗普的“老板们”。

美帝是最认实力的，既然如此，那就用实力碾压，去砸他。套用希腊前财长的话说，只有美国的统治阶级损失足够惨重后，他们才能真正听懂你在说什么。这个“损失足够惨重”当然首先指的是金融市场出现损失。只是中国目前阶段暂无动机，或暂无必要对美国金融维稳发动致命打击。至少现在特朗普倒行逆施是在为渊驱鱼，这在总体上对中国战略有利。反过来也能再次看出中国应对美国对华关税战的具体应对手段十分准确，且非常及时！至少前美国常务副国务卿坎贝尔亲口证明，我们评估是正确的。当然，坎贝尔，马斯克的表现也突出了资产阶级妥协性的一面。

无独有偶，在美国前财长贝森特为特朗普在华尔街的老板们就所谓“闭门投资”提前支会“出老千”的同时，特朗普发行的加密货币“特朗普币”在4月23日一度上涨超过75%。而有媒体爆料称，当天早些时候，特朗普承诺将为“特朗普币”大买家举办私人晚宴。对此，我们想说的是，作为“特朗普的国务卿”，卢比奥对此事不能毫不知情吧！所以，卢比奥也别总是指责“坎贝尔们”（注：卢比奥口中的所谓“游说大军”），说得那么高大上，也许他自己也提前得到了消息股市早就建好了仓。

如此来看，特朗普和“特朗普们”相对于美国国家利益来说，何尝不是参与中国明朝“土木堡之变”所谓“江南财团”的一分子？而美国，或准确地说，美国国家利益，和当年明朝最后一位皇帝崇祯，面对李自成攻打北京之岌岌可危的局面，无人可用，无钱可借有何本质区别？

也许特朗普会说：以我的人生经历来看，只要坚持就是胜利，有钱不赚那是傻瓜。但在坎贝尔、马斯克看来，在中国展示不畏惧美国关税战之能力尤其是使用能力的觉醒后，在堂堂美国总统被当着全世界连连打脸后，这位整天把“假消息制造者”的帽子扣在别人头顶，但自己才是那个最大假消息制造者的特朗普，再不收手，便和傻瓜无异。不过，反过来观察，也许坎贝尔、马斯克把特朗普也看得太高了——这位将“坚持到底，就是胜利”挂在嘴边、但到了如此窘境仍不忘拼命赚钱的特朗普，恐怕绝不是什么关键时刻敢于拼死一搏的人。

此外，我们也能通过另一件事能够看出特朗普的本性到底是一个什么人。

4月25日，美国总统特朗普表示，俄罗斯没有“接管”乌克兰，那就是在向和平做出让步。

这一新闻报道至少说明了两件事，第一，这一新闻报道验证了此前我们就俄方表示对特朗普乌克兰和平政策不了解的“潜台词”是“并非不了解，而是分歧太大”的相关评估；第二，特朗普显然是在拿乌克兰的“人头”邀功（注：也有透过威胁乌克兰，威胁欧盟之意）。俄罗斯很清楚，自己没有能力占领整个乌克兰，既然特朗普已经表态，那就索性顺坡下驴。退一步说，就算俄罗斯占领整个乌克兰，恐怕中国也不会同意。

●即便我们再给和平一次机会，但也绝不会让特朗普的阴谋得逞，条件必须按中国提出的来。否则，时候到了，就“打过长江去，解放全中国！”

此外，透过坎贝尔的言论，我们也能感受到，美国内部正在进一步达成有关“特朗普对中国战略误判”共识。所谓“硬核玩家”，指的是，中国比前苏联在巅峰时期更加令他们感到恐惧，中国已经成为实实在在的超级大国，比前苏联难对付得多得多。其中，让他们感到对付中国最为困难的是，前苏联的本质仍是个帝国，但中国不是。也就是说，他们极难将中国和世界人民割裂开来。值得一提的是，当年美帝对前苏联，通过操纵能源价格加大经济压力，最终迫使其对华约内部加大压榨，最终导致华约和苏联解体。而在苏联内部也是如此，苏修不断压榨百姓，使得苏联领导层和苏联社会脱节。讽刺的是，反观现在的美国，又和当年的苏联有何区别？同样是不断对内盘剥百姓，对外往死压榨自己的盟友。

此外，“硬核玩家”也意味着，在必要时刻，包括美国在内，中国敢于向方方面面，尤其是各揣小心思的，如，俄罗斯，印度，日本，韩国，巴基斯坦等，展示自己强大的能力，尤其是使用这种能力的决心。在这个问题上，经常往来于中美之间的马斯克也许比坎贝尔要认识得更早一些。

需要提醒特朗普政府的是，中国官方还在说“谈，大门敞开”，这是一件值得特朗普政府应该感到庆幸的事情。所谓“庆幸”的意思就是，“谈，大门敞开”恐怕并不会“一直存在”。也就是说，一旦经动态评估，国际社会认为，选择宜将剩勇追穷寇所得的利益更大的时候，谈判的大门将就此关闭！如同解放战争“渡江战役”之前，国共最后一次和谈一样（注：1949年的北平和谈）。

做一个不是十分准确的比喻，特朗普对华发动关税战类似于当年蒋介石反动集团悍然撕毁“双十协议”并发动内战。在特朗普于对华关税问题上“一脚踢到铁板”上多次“眨眼”（注：一次是偷偷摸摸发表了一份豁免文件，另一次就是公开表示对中国加征关税太高）后，类似人民解放军奋起反击并胜利完成三大战役后 想要谈“划江而治”，等待“桃花汛”了。

值得一提的是，在1949年的北平和谈上，我方首先提出“惩治战犯”，今天，在我们看来，中国商务部明确提出“美方应彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施”就是提出惩治特朗普这个发动对华关税战的“战犯”。只要美方不彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施一天，中国就该怎么过就怎么过一天，比如，卡在“桃花汛”来的前几天，该过江就过江。也就是说，即便我们再给和平一次机会，但也绝不会让特朗普的阴谋得逞，条件必须按中国提出的来。否则，时候到了，就“打过长江去，解放全中国！”

●方方面面都不要幻想拿实质性损害中国核心利益换取到美国所谓的“照顾”

继续展开讨论前，再来看一则新闻报道。

4月23日，韩国外交部长官赵兑烈表示，域内没有任何国家愿在美中之间做出二选一的抉择，也没有国家希望看到美中战略竞争演变为“零和博弈”。韩国对华接触在多个层面也符合美国的利益。报道称，赵兑烈当天在出席韩国智库峨山政策研究院主办的2025峨山全会时表示，韩方外交政策优先定位于牢固的韩美同盟，中方对此没有提出异议。韩方对华接触也契合“防止21世纪强国之间战争”这一目标。

在经历了韩国前总统尹锡悦被弹劾事件后，韩国代总统、总理韩德洙早已被吓得瑟瑟发抖了。某种意义上说，目前阶段的韩国在应对美韩关系问题上处于历史最弱阶段。尽管韩国外交部长官赵兑烈围绕对华关税战问题，面对在中美之间如何选边站的问题上百般辩解，但其最终还是不得不选择站队美国。

既然韩方明确表示，其外交政策优先定位于牢固韩美同盟，有必要再次警告韩国当局的是：韩国胆敢在加入“反华关税同盟”并对中国核心利益构成实质性损害，则中方绝不姑息，坚决反击！有媒体爆料称，中国已经警告韩国公司不要向美国军工和国防企业出口含有中国稀土矿物的产品。中国政府已向电力设备、电池、显示器、电动汽车、航空航天和医疗设备等行业企业发出信函，称若违反限制措施，这些企业将受到制裁。

这就叫“长臂管辖”，这也叫以其人之道还治其人之身！接下来我们不妨继续密切关注，韩国当局说什么，尤其是做什么！不要幻想拿实质性损害中国核心利益换取到美国所谓的“照顾”。中国对韩国的敲打就是对美帝，包括那个一边对美国说不会在美国关税谈判中一味让步，另一边通过大批政要高官参拜靖国神社向中国抛筹码、要好处的日本极右当局的严厉警告：大不了，就把革命进行到底；大不了，韩国爆发金融危机。在中国周边地区，包括，南海问题，朝鲜半岛问题，亦或是台湾问题，搞事情，放马过来，中国应战便是！

●尽管形势日益严峻，但我方也充分展现出“打，奉陪到底”这句话，基于传统安全层面的底气所在

说到应战就不得不提一下“爆兵”。上面更多讨论的是非传统安全层面，需要补充一点的是，在传统安全层面，除了此前我们讨论过的“非核氢弹”话题外，还有两则消息请大家关注：

第一，近日，中国海军在2025年“海军节”开放日上的一则展板内容，犹如一石激起千层浪。在052D型驱逐舰“南京舰”的参观活动中，一块关于“鹰击-18A”反舰导弹的介绍展板赫然写道：“可采用超音速弹道攻击美‘阿利·伯克’、日‘爱宕’等敌大中型水面舰艇”。这一罕见直指美日战舰的表述，不仅打破了以往军事宣传中惯用的“某国某型”模糊措辞，更以“打明牌”的姿态，对美日军事同盟进行直接军事威慑；

第二，同样是在2025年“海军节”开放日上，在另一则展板上公开了潜艇部队，094型战略核潜艇的基本性能（注：主要技术指标）——艇长：约135米；艇宽：约13米；水上排水量：约8000吨；水下排水量：约11000吨；最高航速：约30节；下潜深度：约400米。对此，想必军迷们都懂的，一般而言，这意味着，096型战略核潜艇已经入役。祝贺人民海军有了“新的大玩具”！当然，也意味着形势的日益严峻，但我方也充分展现出“打，奉陪到底”这句话，基于传统安全层面的底气所在。

●南亚地区陷入战乱对西方金融维稳的影响恐怕也是以秒计算！

在本次讨论的最后，简单说说印巴关系骤然紧张这件事。

4月25日，巴基斯坦国防部长赫瓦贾·阿西夫说，印度和巴基斯坦这两个拥核国之间的对抗升级值得世界予以关切，这可能会演变为一场全面战争。

在之前的评估中，我们认为绝不是什么偶发事件，偏偏在美国副总统万斯访问印度后出现。所以，本次印巴关系骤然紧张的背后，大概率是美帝搞的鬼。美国公开嘲笑以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家将国运压给连自己周边地区都无法稳定的中国。

客观上说，应对本次印巴关系骤然紧张的确不容易，毕竟印度和巴基斯坦都是上合正式成员国。但是，我们也提醒特朗普政府，如果印巴战争真的全面爆发，一则，本就因四处挥舞关税大棒，尤其发动对华关税战而严重紊乱的美国，是否还能继续从印度进口商品；二则，美国，在包括印控克什米尔地区在内的对印大笔投资是否还有保障。当然，南亚地区陷入战乱对中国经济肯定会有负面影响，但类似波斯湾陷入混乱类似，也存在“反射弧”的问题，需要一个过程。但同理，对西方金融维稳的影响恐怕也是以秒计算！

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Friday, April 25, 2025, Issue No. 1234

Combining the history of the reactionary Kuomintang tearing up the Double Tenth Agreement, launching the civil war, the last peace talks between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, and the Crossing of the Yangtze River by the People's Liberation Army, we urge the Trump administration to revoke all unilateral tariffs on China. Otherwise, it will be too late for regret

[Media Coverage]

On April 24, Kurt Campbell, the former US Deputy Secretary of State, appeared in Hong Kong, China, and participated in a seminar hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. During his speech, when talking about the continuously escalating trade tensions, he criticized the Trump administration for misjudging China's strength and called on the US side to open communication channels with the Chinese side at this time.

【Discussion Summary】

·Under the Combined Influence of Internal and External Pressures, Trump Has to Make a "Strategic Retreat", Just as There Is a Kind of Victory Called Retreat

Before officially launching this round of discussions, let's provide some additional information about US President Donald Trump.

In recent days, we have discussed Trump's submissive stance in the Sino - US tariff war, that is, his performance based on non - traditional security at a certain level. Once again, it should be emphasized that this does not mean that Trump has completely surrendered.

Take the current round of Sino - US game as an example. The so - called "ball" here refers to the situation where Trump uses this posture of retreat and submission to try to lure China into responding positively. Once China takes the "ball", Trump can immediately change his tune to prove that "it is indeed China that needs the United States, not the other way around" to get out of the passive situation and set traps and lay out schemes for China. However, from the responses of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (directly refuting Trump by stating that the news of Sino - US tariff negotiations is false) and the Ministry of Commerce (demanding that the US completely cancel all unilateral tariffs on China), it is obvious that the Chinese side does not take this "ball" at all.

Trump's series of words and deeds are related to his life experiences. Although he has gone bankrupt many times, he can always make a comeback. If we use positive adjectives to describe Trump, he is a person with strong willpower and an extremely strong desire for survival. If we use negative adjectives, he is a very stubborn person without bottom - line and will stop at nothing to achieve his goals, and it is not easy to truly make him surrender or compromise (similar to how a professor from the University of Chicago in the US tried to blackmail the international community by claiming that "the brutality of the United States should not be underestimated"). Therefore, Trump's submissive posture is more of a temporary measure because the pressures from both inside and outside are too great.

Internally, the pressure not only comes from the increasingly fierce "attacks" by the Bidens on him but also from the publicization and intensification of contradictions within the "Trump camp". In addition, the decline in his approval rating due to the deterioration of people's livelihood also makes him anxious. Especially, the turmoil in the financial market caused by the declining ability to control expectations and the increasing uncertainty has put the greatest pressure on him. For example, the US dollar index has fallen more rapidly than expected; externally, the root of the pressure lies in the fact that he has not been able to effectively handle Sino - US relations so far. It is under the combined influence of these internal and external pressures that Trump has to make a "strategic retreat". Just as there is a kind of victory called retreat.

A specific manifestation of this so - called "strategic retreat" is that although he temporarily stops his actions at the non - traditional security level and shows a posture of retreating and submitting, he is constantly making small moves at the traditional security level. In the Middle East direction, which is relatively far from China, Iran's strategic situation is deteriorating continuously, and the issue of the security and stability of the Persian Gulf is becoming increasingly prominent; in the regions around China, such as South Asia and the South China Sea, the situation is turbulent. Trump is spilling over the "showdown - style extreme strategic blackmail" based on non - traditional security to the traditional security level. And the blackmail spilled over to the traditional security level is embedded with threats against non - traditional security.

Taking the South China Sea direction as an example, according to relevant media reports, in mid - April, the Chinese coast guard carried out maritime management in Tianxian Reef in the South China Sea, exercising sovereignty jurisdiction. Chinese coast guard officers boarded Tianxian Reef for inspection and video - recorded relevant information about the illegal activities of the Philippine side. In addition, Chinese coast guard officers also displayed the five - star red flag on Tianxian Reef to declare sovereignty and cleaned up the plastic bottles, sticks, and other debris left on Tianxian Reef.

In our view, China's relevant responses are, first of all, a public and strong warning to the Marcos Jr. government of the Philippines. The Chinese people are not afraid of death and do not believe in ghosts or evil; secondly, it is also a warning to the Trump administration of the United States, which is fanning the flames behind the scenes for the Marcos Jr. government. If you really want to play, let's play big. But the question is, does the United States today have the qualifications and the courage to play big on the South China Sea issue?

·In Reality, After the US Launched a Tariff War against China, China Not Only Stood Firm but Also Counterattacked Layer by Layer

Before continuing the discussion, let's look at a news report.

On April 24, Kurt Campbell, the former US Deputy Secretary of State, appeared in Hong Kong, China, and participated in a seminar hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. During his speech, when talking about the continuously escalating trade tensions, he criticized the Trump administration for misjudging China's strength and called on the US side to open communication channels with China at this time.

Kurt Campbell's remarks came after China immediately and first - hand launched a comprehensive counter - attack against the US on the tariff issue. There are two core points in his remarks. First, Campbell believes that Trump misjudged China's strength; second, China will be a strong player in the coming decades.

Campbell's remarks remind us of what US Senator Marco Rubio once said. Rubio believes that the United States is "addicted" to China. China has a great constraint on the US economy and a significant influence on American society. Those US companies that betray US interests even have a "free lobbying army" in Washington. These "free lobbyists" were not hired by China. Instead, they are willing to speak for China because they can gain huge benefits from cooperation with China.

Perhaps in Rubio's eyes, Campbell is a member of this "free lobbying army". This also shows that there is indeed fertile ground for a "Tumu Crisis" - like situation to brew within the United States.

Another example is Elon Musk. In addition to the significant shrinkage of his stock value, China's recent tightening of export restrictions on "rare - earth - related metal products" has also caused him great pain. Tesla, robots, Starlink, Starship, or even Musk's so - called "X empire" all rely on China's "rare - earth - related metal products". Once again, Musk is not an ordinary businessman or capitalist. All those claims like "migrating to Mars to save humanity" are nonsense. He is a member of American imperialism. Take Starlink as an example. Under the guise of civilian use, it is actually first applied in the military field, which has been verified by the ongoing Russia - Ukraine war that broke out on February 24, 2022.

The fierce disputes between Musk and Navarro, and later between Musk and Bessenet, are specific manifestations of the publicization and intensification of contradictions within the Trump camp. One of the focal points of the disputes is the US tariff policy towards China. Musk is a "special figure" who combines industrial capital and financial capital. He deeply understands the relationship between industrial capital and financial capital, and is well aware of the harm of the US tariff war against China. In Musk's view, people like Navarro are just talking without considering the real situation. Now, with the increasingly strict control of rare - earth - related metal product exports, how can the future development of AI and robots proceed? How can the new military - industrial complex be promoted?

The reality is that after the US launched a tariff war against China, China not only stood firm and counterattacked head - on but also counterattacked the US layer by layer. Ironically, the initiator of the tariff war, the United States, has no good countermeasures. To paraphrase a statement Trump once made when mocking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the Ukrainian issue: The US has no cards to play against China. (Note: On April 26, Trump once again emphasized that Zelensky was "out of cards", urged Ukraine to reach an agreement as soon as possible, and threatened, "Ukraine is in a precarious situation - it can choose peace or fight for another three years until it loses the whole country.")

What is meant by "China not only stood firm and counterattacked head - on but also counterattacked the US layer by layer" specifically refers to the following aspects:

First, the US attempted to use the tariff war to strike at China's manufacturing industry. In response, China also targeted the already severely shrunken and remaining manufacturing industries in the US, such as large - scale aircraft (Boeing), chips (Intel, Nvidia, etc.), and the military - industrial complex (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, including Musk). Second, on the basis of the first point, while hitting the US manufacturing industry, China also hit the US financial stability as a bonus. Compared with the United States, China's financial system is much more stable.

Third, on the basis of the first two points, China exacerbated the divisions and contradictions within the US capital interests that still represent Western capital interests, as well as within the entire Western camp.

·Kurt Campbell Proves Our Assessment of China's Response to the US Tariff War and Its Significance Is Correct

Perhaps people only noticed that Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon, a major US e - commerce giant, warned that Chinese supply chains have deeply penetrated the US consumer market. This seemingly tough trade war is actually turning into a collective "self - mutilation" of US enterprises and consumers. Also, on April 22 local time, when talking about the issue of tariffs on China, US President Donald Trump said that various factors had pushed the (tariffs on China) up to 145%, which should not be so high. He claimed that the high tariffs on Chinese goods would be "significantly reduced", but not to zero.

It is worth mentioning that before Trump showed a submissive and concessionary attitude on the issue of tariffs on China, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had already given advance notice at a closed - door investor meeting organized by JPMorgan Chase in Washington. She said that the current tariff deadlock between China and the United States could not last long. As the two largest economies in the world, the two sides must find a way to ease the tense situation. She pointed out that this easing would happen "in the near future".

As a result, on that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by 5%. (Note: Although the S&P 500 represents the US stock market better at present, we still use the Dow Jones Industrial Average out of habit to illustrate the issue.) That is to say, before Trump showed a submissive and concessionary attitude on the issue of tariffs on China, Wall Street's financial capitalists had already completed their positions - building. This is a typical case of "insider trading". Ironically, no one has investigated this matter because some people on Wall Street have made profits. They are Trump's "bosses".

The United States respects strength the most. Since that is the case, then use strength to crush it. To paraphrase the former Greek finance minister, only when the American ruling class suffers enough losses can they truly understand what you are saying. This "enough loss" of course first refers to losses in the financial market. At present, China has no motive or necessity to launch a fatal blow to US financial stability. At least for now, Trump's reactionary actions are driving fish into the deep waters, which is generally beneficial to China's strategy. On the contrary, it can also be seen once again that China's specific countermeasures against the US tariff war on China are very accurate and timely! At least Kurt Campbell has personally proved that our assessment is correct. Of course, the performances of Campbell and Musk also highlight the compromising side of the bourgeoisie.

Coincidentally, while US former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave advance notice to Trump's bosses on Wall Street about the so - called "closed - door investment" and seemed to be "cheating", Trump's cryptocurrency "Trump Coin" once rose by more than 75% on April 23. And media reports revealed that earlier that day, Trump promised to hold a private dinner for big buyers of "Trump Coin". Regarding this, we would like to say that as Trump's "Secretary of State", Marco Rubio surely can't be completely unaware of this! So, Rubio should not always accuse the so - called "Campbell group" (Note: the so - called "lobbying army" in Rubio's words) so high - handedly. Maybe he also got the news in advance and had already built positions in the stock market.

From this perspective, compared with the national interests of the United States, aren't Trump and "Trump people" like the so - called "Jiangnan business group" involved in the "Tumu Crisis" in the Ming Dynasty? And the United States, or more precisely, the national interests of the United States, is in no essential difference from the last emperor of the Ming Dynasty, Chongzhen, who faced the precarious situation of Li Zicheng's attack on Beijing, with no one available and no money to borrow.

Maybe Trump will say: Judging from my life experience, as long as I persevere, I will win. It is foolish not to make money when one has the chance. However, in the eyes of Campbell and Musk, after China demonstrated its ability and especially the awakened ability to use counter - measures in the face of the US tariff war, and after the US President was repeatedly humiliated in front of the whole world, Trump, who always puts the label of "fake news maker" on others but is actually the biggest one, will be no different from a fool if he doesn't stop. On the other hand, if we look at it from another perspective, perhaps Campbell and Musk overestimate Trump. This Trump, who always claims that "perseverance is victory" but still tries his best to make money in such a difficult situation, is probably not someone who dares to fight desperately at critical moments.

In addition, we can also see what kind of person Trump really is through another incident.

On April 25, US President Donald Trump said that Russia had not "taken over" Ukraine, which was a concession to peace.

This news report at least shows two things. First, this news report verifies our previous assessment that when Russia said it didn't understand Trump's Ukraine peace policy, the "sub - text" was not that it didn't understand but that there were too many differences. Second, Trump is obviously trying to take credit for Ukraine's situation (Note: There is also an implication of threatening Ukraine and the European Union). Russia is very clear that it has no ability to occupy the whole of Ukraine. Since Trump has made such a statement, then Russia might as well take the opportunity to de - escalate. To put it more extremely, even if Russia occupied the whole of Ukraine, China would probably not agree.

·Even if We Give Peace Another Chance, We Won't Let Trump's Conspiracy Succeed. The Terms Must Be on China's Terms. Otherwise, When the Time Comes, We'll "Cross the Yangtze River and Liberate the Whole Country!"

In addition, through Kurt Campbell's remarks, we can also sense that there is a growing consensus within the United States regarding Trump's strategic miscalculation towards China. The so - called "hardcore player" means that China is even more terrifying to them than the Soviet Union at its peak. China has become a real superpower, much more difficult to deal with than the former Soviet Union. One of the things that make it most difficult for them to deal with China is that the essence of the former Soviet Union was still an empire, while China is not. That is to say, it is extremely difficult for them to separate China from the people of the world.

It is worth mentioning that back then, the United States exerted economic pressure on the Soviet Union by manipulating energy prices, which eventually forced the Soviet Union to increase exploitation within the Warsaw Pact, ultimately leading to the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union. And within the Soviet Union, the revisionist Soviet leadership continuously exploited the people, causing the Soviet leadership to become detached from Soviet society. Ironically, what's the difference between the current United States and the former Soviet Union back then? Both are constantly exploiting their own people domestically and squeezing their allies to death externally.

In addition, the "hardcore player" also means that at necessary moments, including the United States, China dares to demonstrate its strong capabilities to all parties, especially those with ulterior motives such as Russia, India, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, etc., especially the determination to use these capabilities. On this issue, Musk, who frequently travels between China and the United States, may have realized it earlier than Campbell.

We need to remind the Trump administration that the Chinese official statement of "the door to talks is always open" is something that the Trump administration should feel fortunate about. The so - called "fortunate" means that "the door to talks is always open" may not "always exist". That is to say, once the international community, through dynamic assessment, believes that choosing to "pursue the retreating enemy with courage" will bring greater benefits, the door to negotiations will be closed! Just like the last peace talks between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party before the Crossing of the Yangtze River in the War of Liberation (Note: the Beiping Peace Talks in 1949).

To make an inaccurate analogy, Trump's launching of a tariff war against China is similar to Chiang Kai - shek's reactionary group's blatant tearing up of the "Double Tenth Agreement" and launching of the civil war. After Trump "hit a snag" on the issue of tariffs on China several times and "blinked" (Note: One time, he secretly issued an exemption document, and another time, he publicly stated that the tariffs imposed on China were too high), it is similar to the People's Liberation Army's counter - attack and victory in the three major campaigns and then wanting to talk about "dividing the country along the Yangtze River" and waiting for the "peach blossom flood".

It is worth mentioning that at the Beiping Peace Talks in 1949, our side first proposed "punishing war criminals". Today, in our view, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's clear proposal of "the US side should completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures on China" is like proposing to punish Trump, the "war criminal" who launched the tariff war against China. As long as the US side does not completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures on China for one more day, China will just go about its business as usual. For example, it can cross the river a few days before the "peach blossom flood" arrives. That is to say, even if we give peace another chance, we will not let Trump's conspiracy succeed. The terms must be on China's terms. Otherwise, when the time comes, we'll "Cross the Yangtze River and Liberate the Whole Country!"

·No One Should Fantasize about Gaining So - called "Care" from the US at the Expense of China's Core Interests

Before continuing the discussion, let's look at a news report.

On April 23, Yoon Suk - yeol, the Foreign Minister of South Korea, said that no country in the region wants to be forced to choose between the US and China, nor does any country hope to see the strategic competition between the US and China turn into a "zero - sum game". South Korea's engagement with China at multiple levels also serves the interests of the United States. The report said that Yoon Suk - yeol stated on the same day at the 2025 Asan Plenum hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a South Korean think tank, that South Korea's foreign policy gives priority to a strong Korea - US alliance, and China has not raised any objections to this. South Korea's engagement with China also conforms to the goal of "preventing wars between major powers in the 21st century".

After the impeachment of former South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol, South Korean Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck - soo has been trembling with fear. In a sense, South Korea is currently at its weakest point in history in dealing with the South Korea - US relationship. Although South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Suk - yeol has made all sorts of explanations regarding the issue of the tariff war on China and how to choose sides between China and the US, he ultimately still had to choose to side with the United States.

Since South Korea has clearly stated that its foreign policy gives priority to a strong Korea - US alliance, it is necessary to once again warn the South Korean authorities: if South Korea dares to join the so - called "anti - China tariff alliance" and causes substantial damage to China's core interests, China will not tolerate it and will resolutely counterattack! Media reports have revealed that China has warned South Korean companies not to export products containing Chinese rare - earth minerals to US military and defense enterprises. The Chinese government has sent letters to enterprises in industries such as power equipment, batteries, displays, electric vehicles, aerospace, and medical devices, stating that if these enterprises violate the restriction measures, they will be sanctioned.

This is what we call "long - arm jurisdiction", and it is also "fighting fire with fire"! Next, let's continue to closely monitor what the South Korean authorities say and, more importantly, what they do! Don't ever think about gaining so - called "care" from the United States at the expense of China's core interests. China's warning to South Korea is also a stern warning to the United States, including the far - right Japanese authorities who, on the one hand, claim not to unconditionally yield in the US tariff negotiations and, on the other hand, try to gain favors from China by having a large number of senior officials visit the Yasukuni Shrine. If it really comes to the worst, we can carry the revolution through to the end; if necessary, we can even let South Korea experience a financial crisis. Regarding issues around China, whether it is the South China Sea issue, the Korean Peninsula issue, or the Taiwan issue, if they want to stir up trouble, just come on, and China will be ready to fight!

·Despite the Increasingly Severe Situation, We Fully Demonstrate the Confidence to "Fight to the End" on the Traditional Security Front

When it comes to responding to challenges, we have to mention the concept of "rapid military expansion". The previous discussions mainly focused on non - traditional security aspects. Here are two pieces of news that need your attention regarding the traditional security front:

First, recently, a display board at the 2025 Navy Day open - day event of the Chinese Navy caused a great stir. During the visit to the Type 052D destroyer Nanjing, a display board introducing the YJ - 18A anti - ship missile read: "It can use supersonic ballistic attacks to strike large and medium - sized surface warships of the enemy such as the US Arleigh Burke and the Japanese Atago." This rare and direct reference to US and Japanese warships not only breaks away from the vague expressions like "a certain country's a certain model" commonly used in past military propaganda, but also directly threatens the US - Japan military alliance with an open - card stance.

Second, also at the 2025 Navy Day open - day event, another display board publicly revealed the basic performance (Note: main technical specifications) of the submarine force's Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine - Length: about 135 meters; Beam: about 13 meters; Displacement on the surface: about 8,000 tons; Displacement underwater: about 11,000 tons; Maximum speed: about 30 knots; Diving depth: about 400 meters. Military enthusiasts will understand that generally speaking, this means that the Type 096 strategic nuclear submarine has been commissioned. Congratulations to the People's Navy on getting a "new big toy"! Of course, this also means that the situation is becoming increasingly severe. However, we have fully demonstrated the confidence to "fight to the end" on the traditional security front.

·A War in South Asia Could Deal a Devastating Blow to Western Financial Stability in an Instant!

To conclude this discussion, let's briefly touch on the sudden deterioration of India - Pakistan relations.

On April 25, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that the escalating confrontation between India and Pakistan, both nuclear - armed nations, is a matter of global concern and could potentially escalate into a full - scale war.

In our previous assessments, we firmly believed that this was no mere coincidence. It came right after US Vice President Kamala Harris's visit to India. Therefore, it is highly likely that the United States is behind this sudden tension in India - Pakistan relations. The United States has openly mocked the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia for pinning their national fortunes on China, which is still grappling with instability in its own neighboring regions.

Admittedly, dealing with the sudden deterioration of India - Pakistan relations is no easy task, considering that both India and Pakistan are full - fledged members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. However, we would like to remind the Trump administration (note: Although Trump has left office at this point, the general situation of US - India - Pakistan relations remains relevant in the context of long - term geopolitical analysis) of two crucial points. First, given that the United States has been flailing about by waving the tariff stick around the world, especially by launching a tariff war against China, causing severe disruptions to its own economy, will it still be able to continue importing goods from India if a full - scale war breaks out between India and Pakistan? Second, will the United States' substantial investments in India, including those in the Indian - controlled Kashmir region, still be secure?

Of course, a war in South Asia will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the Chinese economy. Similar to the chaos in the Persian Gulf, there is a time lag in the impact, and it will take some time for the full effects to be felt. However, just as with the Persian Gulf situation, the impact on Western financial stability could be almost instantaneous!

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